920
FXUS63 KABR 071808
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
108 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 25-45% chance of light showers Tuesday night through
  Wednesday night. Limited precipitation amounts are expected at
  this time.

- Temperatures will be on a steady increase through the week,
  peaking this weekend in the 70s, which is 10 to 20 degrees above
  normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

At 1 PM CDT, skies are sunny and temperatures are struggling to warm
into the upper 20s to mid 30s on east-northeast 5 to 15 mph winds.

The highly amplified upper level ridge to the west of the CWA will
continue to make slow progress east toward this region over the next
24 hours. By Tuesday evening, the upper level ridge axis is
beginning to shift east toward Minnesota, and mid-level shortwave
energy is approaching the CWA from the west. There are still some
small-ish precipitation chances in the forecast for Tuesday night
(25-45% chance).

Temp-wise, there is a 40-60 percent chance of low temperatures
falling to 20F degrees or lower tonight, particularly over northeast
South Dakota and west central Minnesota. The ensemble system`s 25th-
75th percentile range for high temperatures on Tuesday is rather
slim, for example, at Aberdeen, it is ranging from 54F to 58F
degrees for Tuesday`s high temperature. Increasing cloud cover on
Tuesday may hamper the low level WAA some. Low temperatures Tuesday
night should be rather mild, with expected cloud cover around and
possibly some rain showers working across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

While a broad upper level ridge over the western CONUS dominates the
pattern in the extended period, an embedded shortwave will ride the
ridge down and over eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota
Wednesday into Thursday. This disturbance will bring some light rain
showers to the forecast area at that time, but only a few hundredths
are expected at most through both days. Overnight temperatures will
remain above freezing Wednesday night and the saturated layer aloft
will remain warm enough to support liquid droplet growth, so rain is
expected for any precipitation that falls.

The broad ridge mentioned previously will allow for warm and dry air
from the southwest CONUS to move into the forecast area. Highs will
reach their peak over the weekend, into the mid-70s. While this is
15-20 degrees above normal for mid-April, we will still fall well
short of record highs. Fire weather may become a concern depending
on just how high temperatures get, as minimum relative humidity and
winds sit just shy Red Flag thresholds Friday and Saturday. We will
continue to monitor conditions as the weekend draws nearer.

The next big system that has the potential to bring precipitation to
the area comes at the start of next week, currently Sunday into
Monday. While deterministic models keep the low track over North
Dakota/Southern Canada (and precipitation on the north side of the
low), there is still plenty of time for a variation in the track to
bring the low further south. An ensemble cluster analysis shows a 50-
60% chance for the development of a pattern in which the low will
track over the northern plains and bring chances for precipitation.
Even if the bulk of the precipitation stays to the north, the cold
front associated with the low may bring chances for showers or
storms as it passes through early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...10