306
FXUS63 KABR 232333 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-60% chance for rain showers to continue over south
central SD this afternoon into the evening.

-There is a slight (level 2 of 5) to marginal (level 1 of 5) risk
for scattered severe storms to develop over north central SD Friday
afternoon. The primary threats will be 1 inch hail and 60 mph
damaging wind gusts.


- A relatively cooler air mass remains in place through today with
near normal temperatures expected. Hot and mostly dry conditions
will return starting Friday and persisting into early next week,
with the warmest temperatures during the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Updated discussion for the 00Z TAFs below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

There are currently some scattered showers mainly over south central
SD, and will continue to stick around into the evening. These rain
showers will most likely stay as rain, though a few rumbles of
thunder cannot be ruled out during the afternoon. While south
central SD is experiencing these showers, the rest of central and
northeastern SD and west central SD will continue to have some
wildfire smoke aloft today and into Friday. Most of the smoke will
stay aloft and create hazy skies. Though, some of it could get to
the surface to create some moderate air quality in some areas.

An upper-level shortwave will be moving over SD Friday afternoon
which will help to support a warm front moving through the state.
This front will interact will the moisture in the air as well as the
instability, with CAPE values around/above 1000 J/kg, to create some
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the evening. There is currently
a 20-40% chance for scattered storms and showers to develop over
north central SD Friday afternoon into the evening. The lower
confidence/chances is coming from a decent cap the models have over
north central SD that could keep storms from developing. Some high-
res models keep from developing storms Friday due to the cap. Other
models have storms developing in ND then moving into north central
SD, and other have the storms overcoming the cap and develop in
north central SD. As these storms move east into the evening, the
models show them dissipating before getting into northeastern SD due
to a much stronger cap over that area. If any storm is able to
overcome that cap to develop, there is a slight (level 2 of 5) to
marginal (level 1 of 5) risk it could become severe. Strong lapse
rates of 7-8 C/km and wind shear of 30-40 kts will help to cause the
primary threat of hail up to 1 inch in diameter and damaging wind
gust of 60 mph.

An upper-level ridge will start to build over SD this weekend into
the beginning of next week. This will help warm air to push into
central and northeastern SD. The warmest days looks to be Saturday
and Sunday, with temperatures in the upper 90s to mid 100s. Dew
points will be in the mid 50s to low 60s over central SD and the mid
to upper 60s over northeastern SD, which will give minimum relative
humidity values between 18-40%. These lower values will help to keep
the heat index values near the temperatures. Heat index values and
temperatures will have little recovery overnight Saturday into
Sunday, falling into the low 70s. This does keep the area out of
extreme heat warning criteria, though it is right on the threshold.
A heat headline might be needed and considered for the weekend
depending on how the next couple of model runs pan out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered rain showers continue over south central SD, staying
south of KPIR. These will continue to track southeast and should
be out of the region in the next few hours. Otherwise, a lower
cloud deck continues over KPIR (still VFR cigs) along with mid
to high clouds that are draped across the CWA per upper level
shortwave that is tracking northwest to southeast. There will
also be additional lower clouds that move in early Friday
morning over KABR and KATY, which could cause MVFR to
potentially IFR conditions for a few hours. Other then that, VFR
cigs are forecast through the TAF period. Smoke aloft continues
to affect the region resulting in ongoing haze.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...MMM