562
FXUS63 KABR 241935
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
235 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off chances for showers for the next several days,
  although total precipitation looks to stay below a half inch
  for most areas. Severe storm threat remains low through the next
  few days.

- High temperatures will stay below normal (upper 50s and 60s)
  through mid week. Widespread 70s are not expected again until
  the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

As of 19Z, isolated showers have developed over northeastern South
Dakota and into west central Minnesota. Additional weak showers near
Gettysburg to Miller, have been ongoing through most of the day,
with a slow push south and east. Severe weather is not expected with
these showers. Further south, a shortwave continues to track across
Nebraska, with showers and thunderstorms remaining south of this
CWA. Additional activity over far western South Dakota may
eventually spread into our southwestern CWA later this evening.
However, the past few runs of the HRRR keeps the pcpn south of the
White River tonight. Used ECAM for pops tonight through Sunday, with
a slight blend with consall.

An upper level trough over the Great Basin on Sunday may spread
additional showers and thunderstorms into western South Dakota.
Various models suggests most of this CWA will experience dry
conditions on Sunday, with a 20-40 percent chance of pcpn along
and west of the Missouri River Sunday afternoon. Rainfall chances
increase mainly after 6Z Monday over the southwestern CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

The unsettled pattern will continue into this period and persist for
the majority of this term. Upper flow will feature a broad mid-lvl
trough from the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest stretching back west
into the Northern Plains. This feature will slowly evolve southward
across the Dakotas on Monday and combine with another piece of mid-
lvl shortwave energy coming out of the Rockies/Northern High Plains.
Through the Tue-Wed timeframe, this feature will cut off and form a
close upper low across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Guidance
agrees this feature will persist across the region through at least
late Thursday before finally shifting east across the Great Lakes.
Our region may perhaps see some upper ridging start to build in by
late in this period or the start of next weekend.

This pattern will be conducive to persistent unsettled weather
conditions across our forecast area with daily chances for
precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures. Memorial Day
should feature very similar conditions to what we see today and
tomorrow with a 30-60% chance for showers west across central SD and
drier conditions east. A widespread coverage of precip will be
possible Tuesday through Thursday with generally a 30-50% chance for
rain each day. Once the aforementioned system pulls away late in the
week, we`ll finally see precip chances dwindle with mostly dry
conditions expected Friday into Saturday. High temperatures are
expected to fall just below normal through the first half of the
period with readings in the 60s to around 70 degrees. We should
finally tap into a warmer air mass late in the period with readings
returning back to normal in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR cigs may persist at KPIR through this evening, with perhaps
some gradual improvement to low end VFR overnight. Other terminals
will see VFR conditions through the valid taf period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...SD