121
FXUS63 KABR 021110
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
510 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds are expected in the Sisseton Hills this
morning ahead of a warm front, gusting up to 40 mph. Strong
northwesterly winds fill in behind a cold front this afternoon,
gusting up to 45 miles per hour in north central South Dakota.

- The upcoming work week features slightly above normal temperatures
(5-15 degrees) with highs in the upper 50s to 60s and lows in the
30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 502 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with the
12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

A low pressure center over southern Canada will bring both a warm
and a cold front across the Northern Plains today, with winds being
the primary impact of this setup. Southerly winds ahead of the warm
front will strengthen this morning over northeastern South Dakota.
The direction of flow is favorable for some downsloping winds on the
eastern side of the Prairie Coteau, locally gusting to 30 to 40
miles per hour. A cold front will follow this afternoon,  veering
winds northwesterly and providing a more widespread increase in
winds during the afternoon hours. The strongest winds are expected
over north central South Dakota, where gusts may occasionally reach
35 to 45 miles per hour. The latest NBM guidance remains consistent
with previous runs in that the chances of reaching Wind Advisory are
about 10 to 30 percent over north central South Dakota. While the
possibility is definitely there, those odds are a bit too marginal
to issue anything with this forecast cycle.

The winds today behind the cold front may cause some elevated
grassland fire weather concerns when coupled with dew points
dropping from the upper 30s to the lower 30s and high temperatures
in the mid-60s, about 10-15 degrees above normal for early November.
Again the focus area for the elevated fire weather conditions is
over north central South Dakota where all three of the
aforementioned factors come together at the same time. The cold
front may also produce some light sprinkles over the area. Model
soundings are in agreement on a saturated layer aloft along the cold
front, but a deep dry layer below. This dry layer would be expected
to evaporate any rain that does form along the front, with very
little making it to the surface. As such, no measurable
accumulations have been put into the forecast this morning.

Shallow upper-level ridge builds in on Monday (although flow aloft
will still be nearly zonal). This will continue the pattern of above
normal temperatures with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s. A high
pressure center will pass to the south, keeping gentle westerly
winds over the area through the rest of the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

When the period opens Monday evening, a return flow pressure
gradient is in full swing across the CWA. A surface low reflection
associated with the next in a series of mid/upper level systems will
move across the region from late Monday night through Tuesday before
another round of low level CAA kicks in Tuesday night. Surface high
pressure will be centered over the region on Wednesday, with another
return flow pressure pattern establishing over the CWA Wednesday
night. Low pressure extends across the region on Thursday before the
next sequence of CAA ensues Thursday night/Friday.

Despite the plethora of shortwaves working inland off the Pacific
coast, knocking down the western CONUS upper level ridge, throughout
the period, qpf clusters still is not showing any qpf of 0.10in or
more, despite the deterministic GSM`s showing an occasional glancing
of light qpf (not in good timing/coverage agreement amongst
themselves) over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with only some
mid to high clouds over the airspace today and tonight. The main
aviation concern comes in the form of a couple different areas of
strong winds this morning. First, southerly winds increase over
northeastern South Dakota this morning ahead of a warm front. Wind
gusts in this area will reach 25 to 35 knots, but are expected to
decrease in the afternoon. Meanwhile, a cold front will pass over
the area beginning this afternoon and continuing through the
evening, veering winds to be out of the northwest behind it. The
strongest winds are expected over north central South Dakota in the
afternoon, where gusts range from 30 to 40 knots at their peak. Some
wind shear is expected out ahead of the cold front over north
central South Dakota this morning, and it has been indicated in the
KMBG TAF.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...BC