787
FXUS63 KABR 281213
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
713 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Western wildfire smoke may impact visibility at times across the
region through this evening.

- Temperatures remain 5 to 15 degrees above normal through at least
mid-week.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place over
parts of north central South Dakota west of the Missouri River. Wind
gusts of 60 miles per hour will be the main severe threat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

UPDATE for AVIATION discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Rain is moving out of the forecast area early this morning, leaving
partly cloudy skies in their wake. In areas that clear out this
morning, the radiative cooling, light and variable winds, and the
recent rainfall may all contribute to the potential for some pockets
of patchy fog to develop this morning. However confidence is low at
this time, and model guidance does not show much in the way of
chances for significant visibility reductions.

Broad upper-level ridge will remain in place for the next couple of
days, continuing to bring above normal temperatures (highs in the
upper 80s to 90s) today and Wednesday. Main forecast concern over
the period will be smoke coming in from the west. Latest high-
resolution guidance brings smoke over most of the forecast area
today and Wednesday, with the highest concentrations of vertically
integrated smoke over north central South Dakota. In terms of near-
surface smoke, concentrations are expected to be highest this
morning, potentially pushing air quality to Moderate levels (meaning
that mainly those sensitive to smoke would be affected).Through the
rest of the day today and into Wednesday, near-surface smoke is
generally expected to slowly decrease.

There is also some signal for some rain shower development over
parts of northeastern South Dakota tonight. Inter-model consistency
on timing and location isn`t high, but generally if storms pop up
they would come in the late afternoon to evening. Not much in the
way of a severe threat is anticipated, but can`t entirely rule out
the possibility of a stronger storm managing to produce marginal
hail or wind this evening. Either way, storms will remain isolated
to scattered and track southerly to southeasterly across eastern
South Dakota.

The next chance for rain begins Wednesday night and continues into
Thursday. Rain will be possible throughout the day, with the
heaviest rainfall and highest potential for storms coming in the
late afternoon to evening Thursday. However, some of the early
showers may help to limit the potential for storm development later.
Confidence in the severe threat is fairly low, mainly due to the
lack of shear in place. However, some pockets of up to 30 knots of 0-
6km shear may be possible, which when coupled with MUCAPE values of
roughly 1500-2000 J/kg may be enough to support initial development
of storms. This is some signal for severe wind potential, as DCAPE
values over 1000 J/kg and strong low-level lapse rates upwards of 8-
9 C/km will be possible. Otherwise, not anticipating much in terms
of the hail or tornado threat with storms on Thursday as it stands
now. At this time, a wind-driven Marginal Risk for severe weather is
in place to cover storms Wednesday night over parts of Corson and
Dewey counties. Another Marginal Risk covers the entire CWA Thursday
as well.

Looking into the weekend, the upper-level ridge overhead will tilt
to become positively tilted. A warm airmass will remain, supporting
temperatures roughly 5-10 degrees above normal. Dew points will also
lower slightly over the weekend, from the upper 60s/low 70s mid-week
to the low 60s by Sunday. The pattern will not be very conducive to
rain chances, so expect dry conditions over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Other than smoke or early morning fog, mainly VFR conditions
will continue through the period. Smoke may bring 5-6SM vis at
times.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...06