828
FXUS63 KABR 121950
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
250 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke will keep visibilities down to 2-5 miles over
northeastern SD and west central MN, before improving west to east
overnight.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather late
Monday afternoon and evening, with a 50% chance of precipitation.

- There will be a noticeable cool-down on Wednesday and Thursday,
with highs potentially 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

At 19Z, the latest Goecolor satellite imagery showed a thick ribbon
on smoke stretching across the eastern Dakotas. Visibilities east of
this ribbon have been between 2 and 6SM. On either side of the
thicker smoke, fair weather cumulus clouds have developed. Despite
the smoke, temperatures have been able to rise into the 70s to near
80 degrees early this afternoon. Taking a look at he solar radiation
sensors from the SDState Mesonet platforms, there has been about a
10% reduction in solar radiation due to the smoke over the James
River Valley.

Taking a look at the afternoon weather map, we have surface high
over KS and southern NE extending a ridge up through eastern SD and
western MN. The main 500mb trough that was overhead this morning has
shifted into MN, with northwesterly flow lingering over the Dakotas.
Ridging aloft will be the theme for the next few days, along with
increasing temperature. A weak/dry cold front will cross the area
during the day Sunday.  Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s to
low 90s Sunday afternoon, highest west of the James River. Highs
Monday will be mainly in the 90s, with a few locations flirting with
100 degrees near and west of the MO River.

Look for increasing dewpoints, into the upper 50s and mid 60s,
Monday as winds shift out of the south. CAPE values will near 1k
J/kg Monday afternoon into the early evening hours, closer to the
surface trough set up over western SD. The surface low looks to push
across central SD by around daybreak Tuesday and be to our southeast
by mid afternoon Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances look to return Monday
and Tuesday. The SPC day 3 outlook highlight our 5 northwestern most
counties in the marginal risk area (level 1 out of 5) for Monday
afternoon and evening.

We could see more Canadian wildfire smoke returning Tuesday, but
it`s not a guarantee. The specific wind direction will make a big
difference, on if the winds are more out of the west or northwest
aloft. We will not be putting any mention of smoke in the forecast
that far out. Check out the latest on the smoke near the surface and
potential impacts from the EPA at airnow.gov

Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the 70s, with only a
slow return to the upper 70s and to mid 80s by next Saturday. The
chance of precipitation beyond Wednesday diminish to less than
climatology, generally at or below 25% for any 12-hour period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Winds will remain light through at least 12Z Sunday, around 10kts
or less. Gusts during the day Sunday will be in the 15-25kt
range. Smoke will continue to be the main concern. While much of
this smoke is elevated, visibility over eastern ND has been down
to around 2SM. Visibility at MBG is improving, with deteriorating
conditions expected at ATY. The HRRR guidance does show the
potential for 1-2SM visibility in smoke at ABR between 20 and 23Z
this afternoon/evening.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...06