


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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057 FXUS63 KABR 030817 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool conditions expected across the area today. - There is a 60 to 90 percent chance of rain and snow from late tonight through Friday evening. Snow accumulations look to be two inches or less. - Temperature will remain 5 to 15 degrees below normal for early April through early next week before a warming trend begins toward the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Light snow continues to linger across mainly the eastern portion of the CWA early this morning, but it will slowly diminish through the rest of the overnight hours and should be done around or shortly after sunrise. A broad upper level trough currently extends from northern Minnesota to southern California, with the northern portion having played a part in our last storm system. This portion will track off to the east today, with weak ridging building over the CWA. A shortwave trough will drop out of Canada tonight and over the Northern Plains on Friday, and will provide upper support for our next precipitation making system. At the surface, high pressure will settle in over the region today, resulting in dry conditions. The high gets pushed east tonight as an inverted trough from low pressure over the Southern Plains builds northward to central South Dakota. Will see precipitation develop along this boundary beginning over the western CWA overnight, with it then spreading eastward on Friday. Precipitation type will be dependent on temperatures, but at this time model soundings are indicating either rain or snow. North central South Dakota may pick up an inch or two of snow accumulation, as will the areas along the Sisseton Hills region, with the remainder of the area not likely to see more than an inch. Liquid amounts of precipitation will be highest across the southern portion of the CWA, where one quarter to a bit more than one half inch may occur. High temperatures today will be in the upper 30s to the upper 40s. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Highs on Friday will be in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 This period will feature an exiting upper level trough and sfc cold front to our east at the beginning of the term followed by dry, cool west to northwesterly flow at the sfc and aloft. We should then begin to turn the corner on the chilly conditions late in the period as upper ridging begins to build to our west. Starting off Friday night into Saturday morning, a sfc cold front will have already shifted southeast of our forecast area with the associated upper trough axis sliding through the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. A light rain/snow mixture initially will become all snow by late evening Friday into early Saturday before ending before sunrise. By the time this period begins, the bulk of the moisture will have occurred with this system with only minimal amounts of liquid qpf and snowfall leftover Friday night. Sfc high pressure will build eastward across the Dakotas on Saturday. A cold air advection pattern will drop our 850mb temperatures into the single digits below zero C to around -10C through the end of the day Saturday. This will ensure daytime readings remain in the 40s to around 50 degrees. Plenty of early April sunshine should help to counteract that CAA, so even though temps will be 5-15 degrees below normal, it may not feel as chilly with the help of that sun. After temperatures try to modify Sunday with the help of some warm air advection, another upper trough axis is progged to shift southward across the western Great Lakes and Upper Midwest late in the weekend into Monday. A cold fropa will reinforce the cooler than normal air mass on Monday and Monday night. By Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper flow pattern will feature weak ridging followed by a quick moving upper level s/w trough on Wednesday. Temperatures modify back closer to normal if not slightly above normal by late in the period. That weak s/w trough on Wednesday may introduce a 15-20 percent chance for light rain shower activity to parts of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR/IFR conditions will persist through Thursday at KABR and KATY with some occasional breaks to low VFR. MVFR cigs at KMBG and KPIR could improve as early as morning or as late as 20Z. Leaned toward a consensus of hi-res models in the TAFs showing an earlier solution. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...Vipond AVIATION...Parkin