057
FXUS63 KABR 030817
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cool conditions expected across the area today.

- There is a 60 to 90 percent chance of rain and snow from late
  tonight through Friday evening. Snow accumulations look to be
  two inches or less.

- Temperature will remain 5 to 15 degrees below normal for early
  April through early next week before a warming trend begins
  toward the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Light snow continues to linger across mainly the eastern portion of
the CWA early this morning, but it will slowly diminish through the
rest of the overnight hours and should be done around or shortly
after sunrise. A broad upper level trough currently extends from
northern Minnesota to southern California, with the northern portion
having played a part in our last storm system. This portion will
track off to the east today, with weak ridging building over the
CWA. A shortwave trough will drop out of Canada tonight and over the
Northern Plains on Friday, and will provide upper support for our
next precipitation making system.

At the surface, high pressure will settle in over the region today,
resulting in dry conditions. The high gets pushed east tonight as an
inverted trough from low pressure over the Southern Plains builds
northward to central South Dakota. Will see precipitation develop
along this boundary beginning over the western CWA overnight, with
it then spreading eastward on Friday. Precipitation type will be
dependent on temperatures, but at this time model soundings are
indicating either rain or snow. North central South Dakota may pick
up an inch or two of snow accumulation, as will the areas along the
Sisseton Hills region, with the remainder of the area not likely to
see more than an inch. Liquid amounts of precipitation will be
highest across the southern portion of the CWA, where one quarter to
a bit more than one half inch may occur.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 30s to the upper 40s.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 20s to the lower 30s.
Highs on Friday will be in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

This period will feature an exiting upper level trough and sfc cold
front to our east at the beginning of the term followed by dry, cool
west to northwesterly flow at the sfc and aloft. We should then
begin to turn the corner on the chilly conditions late in the period
as upper ridging begins to build to our west.

Starting off Friday night into Saturday morning, a sfc cold front
will have already shifted southeast of our forecast area with the
associated upper trough axis sliding through the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota. A light rain/snow mixture initially will become
all snow by late evening Friday into early Saturday before ending
before sunrise. By the time this period begins, the bulk of the
moisture will have occurred with this system with only minimal
amounts of liquid qpf and snowfall leftover Friday night. Sfc high
pressure will build eastward across the Dakotas on Saturday. A cold
air advection pattern will drop our 850mb temperatures into the
single digits below zero C to around -10C through the end of the day
Saturday. This will ensure daytime readings remain in the 40s to
around 50 degrees. Plenty of early April sunshine should help to
counteract that CAA, so even though temps will be 5-15 degrees below
normal, it may not feel as chilly with the help of that sun.

After temperatures try to modify Sunday with the help of some warm
air advection, another upper trough axis is progged to shift
southward across the western Great Lakes and Upper Midwest late in
the weekend into Monday. A cold fropa will reinforce the cooler than
normal air mass on Monday and Monday night. By Tuesday into
Wednesday, the upper flow pattern will feature weak ridging followed
by a quick moving upper level s/w trough on Wednesday. Temperatures
modify back closer to normal if not slightly above normal by late in
the period. That weak s/w trough on Wednesday may introduce a 15-20
percent chance for light rain shower activity to parts of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

MVFR/IFR conditions will persist through Thursday at KABR and KATY
with some occasional breaks to low VFR. MVFR cigs at KMBG and KPIR
could improve as early as morning or as late as 20Z. Leaned
toward a consensus of hi-res models in the TAFs showing an
earlier solution.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Parkin