


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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464 FXUS63 KABR 012318 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A storm system will bring a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and snow to the region through the day Wednesday. The highest amounts of total snow (of 4 to 7 inches) will occur from the Leola Hills across far northern Brown county and eastward into Minnesota, including the entire Sisseton Hills region. Icing of 0.1 to 0.3 inches is possible over portions of central to eastern SD, highest over the eastern slopes of the Prairie Coteau of east central SD. - Winds will gust out of the east to southeast at 30 to 40 mph out of the north to northwest during the day Wednesday, which will lead to patchy blowing snow and reduced visibilities when snow is falling. - There is a 20-30% chance of light rain or snow Friday into early Saturday. Very little to any accumulation is expected. && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 The first round of rain/snow is beginning to move north of the area this afternoon while more precipitation begins to approach northeast and north-central South Dakota. The surface low over the Central High Plains is beginning to move east-northeast across Northwest Kansas and Southwest Nebraska this afternoon. The primary challenge with this forecast remains the precipitation type and when the changeover to snow could happen across the area. Along and north of a Dewey to Spink to Deuel county line, a rain/snow mix to snow transition is expected during the late afternoon to evening timeframe. As the low slides to the east of the CWA tonight through tomorrow, cooler air will work its way down from Canada allowing for the precipitation to become mainly snow. With the warmer air in place this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon (across the southern part of the CWA), overall expected snowfall amounts have decreased a bit. The exception will be along the Leola Hills and the Sisseton Hills where a period of easterly winds will provide some added lift to produce higher snowfall potential (in excess of 6 inches). Therefore, the area of highest concern will be from eastern McPherson county, across northern Brown county, then eastward into west central Minnesota. There is also potential for a period of freezing rain in the transition zone between rain and snow, with many locations east of the Missouri River in the threat area for some icing. Winds will also be an issue with this system, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible, especially across the eastern half of the area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 30s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 On Thursday conditions should be dry as high pressure near the surface moves into the Dakotas behind our current system underneath an upper level ridge. Temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer compared to Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s to 40s and overnight lows in the low to mid 20s. A cold front will move across the area beginning overnight Thursday into Friday morning, bringing potential for a rain/snow mix for far north-central South Dakota with a 30-50% chance for rain over the rest of the area through the afternoon as the front moves through. As temperatures cool in the evening, a transition to snow is possible through the overnight hours with precipitation tapering off from north to south over the area. With little mid to upper moisture for this system to utilize, little to no snow accumulation remains expected with only a few hundredths of liquid through Friday night. Temperatures on Friday look to be a tad warmer with highs in the low to mid 40s and overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s. As we move into the weekend, long-range guidance continues to favor the large trough extending from Canada to northern Mexico with the trough axis moving across the Great Plains. Once the precipitation tapers off late Friday night, an extended dry period is favored through early next week while an upper ridge moves across the CONUS. Temperatures on Saturday could be similar to Friday followed by some temperatures near lower 50s nudging into the westernmost counties Sunday while those east of the Missouri River will see temperatures in the upper 30s to 40s for highs. The warmer temperatures will continue to advect east as the upper ridge moves over the Dakotas with highs warming to the 50s to 60s by next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR/IFR conditions will persist as rain, snow and freezing rain/drizzle move over the region through Wednesday afternoon. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for SDZ005>008-011- 020-021-023. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for SDZ009-010- 016>018. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for SDZ019-022. MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ039-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...GLD LONG TERM...GLD AVIATION...20