049
FXUS63 KABR 070340
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
Issued by National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1040 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will remain 10 to near 20 degrees above normal
through Tuesday next week. High temperatures this week will stay in
the 70s and 80s with potential further warming to the 90s by this
weekend into early next week.

- Very warm temperatures along with breezy winds and dry conditions
could lead to elevated fire weather concerns next Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Mainly quiet conditions persist this afternoon. A few isolated light
showers persist across parts of north central South Dakota but
should see these showers dissipate over the next few hours. High
temperatures have warmed to the 60s and 70s while humidity levels
have fallen to 20-50%. The lowest humidity levels reside across east
central South Dakota. At the same time, winds have remained light.
Still, low end elevated fire danger will persist in this area for
the rest of the afternoon hours. A cold front sitting just southeast
of the area could spark light showers to possibly a weak
thunderstorm, mainly along the Missouri River Valley late this
afternoon and evening. Winds look to remain slightly elevated
through the night as the surface pressure gradient tightens behind
the departing cold front. Lows overnight will fall to the 40s to up
to about 50F.

The omega blocking pattern will transition to more of a rex block
for the middle of the week as an upper level low pressure system
over the dessert southwest meanders into the Plains. While this low
could wrap a little bit of moisture to its north side, the moisture
looks to remain south of our area, mainly across parts of southeast
South Dakota on Wednesday. The low will continue to drift eastwards
on Thursday, allowing for dry conditions to continue. High
temperatures during these days will warm to the upper 60s, 70s, and
to just about 80F. Thursday will be the warm of the two days. Low
temperatures will stay in the 40s and 50s.

Upper level ridging will begin to build across the western CONUS on
Friday. This will place the Northern Plains downstream from the
ridge axis. While this typically results in a dry pattern, a weak
front looks to push into the area. This could bring bring low end
rain chances (<=15%) to the area. However, soundings show mainly dry
thermal profiles. If rain were to develop. it looks to be mainly be
convectively driven. Details remain somewhat uncertain though so
have left model blended PoPs for now. Otherwise, high temperatures
will warm a bit more to the upper 70s and 80s with lows falling to
the upper 40s and low 50s.

Upper level ridging looks to persist through the weekend, allowing
for temperatures to warm to the 80s to perhaps up to about 90F on
Sunday. The ensembles support these warm temperatures as they show a
broad 50-90% chance for high temperatures to break 80F. Winds look
to be marginally breezy on Saturday before further strengthening on
Sunday as the surface pressure gradient tightens. Gusts up to about
30-35 mph is possible. The gusty winds and warm temperatures could
bring elevated fire weather to the area. This is supported by the
Hot Dry Windy Index (HDWI) as it shows 40-50% of its members
exceeding the 75th percentile of its climatology.

Chances for rain may return next week as medium range guidance
remains consistent in an upper level trough pushing into the
Northern Plains from the northwest CONUS. Latest 12z guidance has
slowed down the arrival of the trough a little bit. Should this
trend hold, then rain chances will come towards next Tuesday with
Monday staying dry. Details can still change though so will continue
to monitor over the coming days. Aside from rain chances, highs look
to remain above average in the 80s to even low 90s.These warm
temperatures along with breezy winds look to continue elevated fire
concerns across the area. This is again supported HDWI as it shows
about a 50% chance for exceeding the 75th percentile of its
climatology. Will be keeping an eye on this potential over the
coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be
out of the northeast, before transitioning to east/southeasterly
by late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will gust around 20
kts at times for tonight into the day on Wednesday, then taper
downward on Wednesday evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...JM