489
FXUS63 KABR 102335
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
635 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke (aloft and near-surface) from Canadian wildfires will linger
  overnight and eventually clear out on Monday from west to east.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances, along with severe thunderstorm
  potential look to increase by the end of the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Visibility across the forecast area ranges from 3 to around 6
miles, with the least amount of smoke over far eastern SD and west
central MN. The latest HRRR smoke analysis has the smoke
continuing to spread east, which aligns with the latest satellite
trends and overall wind pattern. We`ll also be monitoring decaying
showers and thunderstorms over southwestern SD. At this time, they
are expected to continue to weaken before moving much into Jones
County. No significant changes are expected to the ongoing
forecast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Visibility across central SD still between 2-3SM as shown by
KMBG/KPIR observations this afternoon. A bit of a surprise is that
KABR has improved to P6SM after earlier hovering around 6SM this
morning. Lowering of visibility still possible across the James
River valley into remaining portions of the eastern CWA into this
evening as the latest HRRR-smoke run shows near-surface smoke
concentration increasing (but only slightly) over the next several
hours. Still plenty of smoke aloft over the region at the very
least. As southwesterly flow increases through the day Monday, it
appears smoke will clear out from west to east throughout the day.

Very warm temperatures make a return to the region on Monday as
warmer air surges eastward ahead of an approaching cold front. Model
850mb temps warm to between +20C and +25C by Monday afternoon ahead
of the wind shift. High temperatures look to reach the upper 80s to
low 90s from the James River valley westward into central SD. As the
cold front moves through during the late afternoon and evening
hours, HREF paintball output shows a handful/several CAMs with
widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across the
northern CWA. A look at soundings reveal rather dry low levels and
cloud bases perhaps up to 8-10k feet. The moist layer is rather
shallow as well. Not really a good setup for receiving
precipitation, but will maintain slight chance (20%) PoPs in the
forecast across the northern CWA for the late afternoon and evening
hours.

Surface high pressure then looks to build in behind the cold front
for Monday night and Tuesday, with cooler 850mb temps in the teens C
moving in. High temps on Tuesday will likely drop back into the
upper 70s to mid 80s for most locations.

Models still suggest increasing dewpoints through the 60s to near 70
degrees by the middle/end of the upcoming week into next weekend.
This will also lead to general increases in unstable air across the
region, as models also show frontal boundaries and waves of low
pressure moving across the Northern Plains. Inherited PoP grids show
on and off chances for showers and thunderstorms during this time
period, which makes sense given the unsettled look to the pattern
coming up. Machine learning products also point to increased
probabilities for severe weather by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Fog, above and near the surface, continue to be the main concern
over the next 24 hours. Visibility across the TAF sites ranges
from 3SM at PIR/MBG to 4SM at ABR and 6SM at PIR. The latest HRRR
smoke analysis has the smoke continuing to spread east, which
aligns with the latest satellite trends and overall wind pattern.
The low level/surface smoke will slowly end/exit to the northeast
by 15-20Z at all locations.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...06
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...06