577
FXUS65 KABQ 141730 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1130 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1122 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

- Higher flows will continue in rivers, creeks, arroyos, and low
  water crossings through this week, especially along the east
  slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, due to melting snow.

- Dry windy conditions are forecast through this evening with
  gusts of 40 to 60 mph focused along the central mountain chain
  eastward. Much of northern and central New Mexico will also
  observe low humidity today with an increased risk of rapid fire
  spread. Breezy to windy conditions will be common each day into
  early next week with Sunday and Monday being the windiest.&&

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Strong southwest winds will return today as an upper level trough
passing north of NM steers converging jet streaks in the polar and
subtropical jetstreams over the forecast area. The strongest winds
will occur over the southwest mountains and along and east of the
central mountain chain, where gusts from 45-60 mph are expected. The
60 mph gusts should be relegated to the east slopes of the central
mountain chain. The wind direction will shift out of the west, and
eventually northwest by this evening, as a Pacific cold front
crosses. Will continue the ongoing High Wind Warning and Wind
Advisories without changes for today. Like Tuesday, widespread
blowing dust is forecast over Chaves County, where a Dust Advisory
will be issued for the afternoon until sunset. Winds will be
stronger today in Roswell than they were on Tuesday, when there
were significant blowing dust impacts. Therefore, there is a high
probability of a high impact blowing dust event in the
Roswell/Hagerman/Dexter area this afternoon until sunset. Later
shifts will issue Dust Storm Warnings there, and elsewhere, as
needed. Further, the Fire Danger Forecast continues to increase
the coverage of high fire danger east of the central mountain
chain, causing us to expand Red Flag Warnings there for today.

We will also issue a Fire Weather Watch over northeast areas for
Thursday. The jet streaks will exit gradually eastward on
Thursday, and a surface trough will redevelop in the lee of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains with another round of breezy to windy
conditions along and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia
Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Winds will decrease in speed Thursday night with mostly just
moderate breezes prevailing from the west overnight. Upstream, a
weak upper low will be moving off of the Pacific and over the Baja
peninsula Thursday night, making its way northeastward into
Friday and Friday night. This will draw up some modest mid level
moisture into western and portions of central NM late Friday,
potentially sufficient enough for some afternoon and evening virga
or sprinkles, but very dry boundary layer conditions will make it
nearly impossible to get anything measurable to the ground. Gusty
downdrafts would accompany any of these anemic showers while
prevailing breezes would be light to moderate from the southwest
and west. Temperatures would be seasonable and within a couple
degrees of climatology.

By Saturday, the flow aloft over NM would stay southwesterly with
700 mb speeds averaging between 15-25 kt. Broad surface low
pressure would begin to develop, but in a manner and orientation
that would not place a very strong gradient over NM. This will
keep breezes at the surface from getting too strong Saturday
(gusts of 25 to briefly 30 mph in some zones). Temperatures would
gain a couple degrees, and another upstream low would be moving
into the Pacific Northwest states, poised to move to the Great
Basin.

The low will cross the Great Basin into Sunday with pinwheeling
vort lobes within and a stout jet preceding it. The southern most
vort lobe will be rounding the lower CO river basin late Sunday,
and a lee-side surface cyclone will be rapidly deepening over
eastern CO. This will set the stage for a much windier day Sunday
with any precip mostly staying northwest of NM. Temperatures would
cool a few degrees as pressure heights lower. The upper low will
move into CO on Monday with strong winds persisting and veering a
bit more westerly as a Pacific front overtakes NM late in the day.
Precip would still be quite showery, light, and scant in NM with
the bulk staying in CO Monday. The low would then eject into the
central to northern plains Tuesday with breezy west to northwest
winds lingering behind in NM. Temperatures would trend up a few
degrees Tuesday afternoon, but readings would still be shy of
normal by 5 to 10 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Strong southwesterlies are already impacting a few terminals like
KSRR with high wind gusts surpassing 55 to 60 mph. These high wind
gusts will steadily expand across the adjacent highlands northward
to near KSXU and KLVS. Elsewhere, southwesterlies will generally
gust 25 to 40kts. The Airport Weather Warning for KABQ remains in
tact for this afternoon through 8pm MDT. Winds diminish areawide
this evening b/w 01Z to 03Z, persisting the longest at higher
elevations in the mountains. Blowing dust will be a concern at
KROW and have left the TEMPO there focused on that b/w 21Z to 00Z.
LLWS will also impact terminals along the eastern slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo Mts including KAXX and KLVS tonight past
midnight into Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND HIGH FIRE DANGER CENTRAL
OVER ALL EXCEPT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY...

An upper level trough passing north of NM will steer converging
speed maximums in the polar and subtropical jetstreams over the
forecast area today with strong surface winds areawide. The Fire
Danger Forecast continues to increase the coverage of high fire
danger over eastern areas, so the ongoing Red Flag Warning will be
expanded there today. Windy conditions will return east of the
central mountain chain on Thursday. So, we will also issue a Fire
Weather Watch for the Northeast Highlands and Plains for Thursday
afternoon until sunset. Further, the East Central Highlands and
East Central Plains will have locally critical fire weather
conditions along and north of I-40 on Thursday. If wind speeds
continue to strengthen with new model runs, the Watch may be
expanded to those zones as well. Winds will weaken between
weather systems on Friday, only to strengthen again Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday. Another round of fairly widespread critical
fire weather conditions looks to occur Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  37  70  38 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  63  26  65  29 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  64  32  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  64  27  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  62  32  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  68  29  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  68  33  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  73  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  68  35  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  73  30  75  32 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  76  35  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  57  26  60  30 /   5   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  66  40  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  68  39  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  63  33  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  53  28  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  60  26  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  67  28  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  65  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  74  39  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  68  40  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  72  38  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  76  48  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  78  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  81  43  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  78  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  82  40  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  78  43  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  81  40  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  79  43  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  81  42  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  73  44  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  78  44  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  86  46  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  70  40  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  73  41  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  73  37  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  76  35  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  71  37  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  75  37  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  75  38  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  78  45  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  70  44  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  70  34  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  73  35  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  74  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  71  37  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  80  43  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  74  39  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  83  45  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  80  45  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  83  47  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  86  52  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  87  53  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  84  49  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  91  58  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  82  50  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  80  48  80  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106-
109-123>126.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ208-212-215-
220>222-224-225-228-231-232-234>238-241.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NMZ104-123.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ223-229-233-
239.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-240.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ238-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24