Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
807 FXUS65 KABQ 110947 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 347 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 343 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025 - Winds trend stronger today and Wednesday as a fast-moving Pacific storm moves through. Light rain/snow will favor western areas while winds and fire weather concerns return to south central and eastern New Mexico. - A very strong, multi-hazard spring storm system will impact the region Thursday through Saturday. The main hazards will be widespread strong to damaging wind gusts, increased fire danger and blowing dust in the east, and snow that will favor the western and northern mountains where strong winds will create blizzard-like conditions. - There is low to moderate confidence that the active weather pattern will continue after the weekend, with more chances for rain/snow and strong winds/critical fire weather early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 343 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Conditions throughout this week will worsen each day as a couple storm systems bring a plethora of hazards to New Mexico. Winds will be the main threat this week, and they will begin to pick up today and Wednesday. They further increase as a powerful spring storm arrives Thursday and continuing Friday, where there is high confidence in strong to damaging wind gusts across a majority of the state, especially Friday afternoon. These strong winds will likely create widespread patchy blowing dust. Along with winds, snow returns to the western and northern mountains Thursday and Friday, where the strong winds will create areas of blowing snow and treacherous travel conditions. Low relative humidity values across the eastern plains may create conditions favorable for rapid fire spread each afternoon this week. After the powerful storm passes Saturday, conditions will improve late weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 343 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined upper level low entering SoCal this morning while a large dry intrusion shifts east across the southern Rockies. A 110-120kt speed max in the base of the low will spread northeast across Sonora today then enter southwest NM tonight. Southwest winds will strengthen today across the region as stronger winds approach from the southwest and a surface low deepens to near 1000mb over northeast NM. The 00Z HREF indicates mean wind gusts of 25-35 mph later today from the southwest mts eastward thru Socorro County into the Sacramento Mts and nearby highlands. These winds with very low humidity will elevate the wildland fire risk. Max temps will also remain 5-10F above normal for much of the area. High clouds entering western NM may limit warming a couple degrees compared to Monday. Otherwise, a relatively nice day is in store again for mid March. Strong moisture advection will take place over western NM tonight as the H5 low enters southern AZ and weakens to an open wave. Abundant moisture associated with the low will be mostly wrung out along the Mogollon Rim and Gila region while large-scale subsidence increases behind the departing 110kt speed max. QPF will be light as a result with NBM probs for >0.10" near 10% in most areas except southwest Catron County (0.20" on southwest-facing slopes in the Gila). Temps will be cold enough to manifest this QPF as 1-2" of snow around the Gila. The Sacramento Mts may pick up a quick burst of snow as well early Wednesday morning as a brief period of lift coincides with lingering moisture in the base of the trough axis. Strong west winds in the base of the trough may also lead to windy conditions tonight from the Ruidoso area southeast into southwest Chaves County. The upper level wave will enter west TX Wednesday and allow surface winds to veer around to the northwest over NM. A 90-110kt speed max exiting NM with deepening surface low pressure near Childress, TX will allow for windy conditions to spread into eastern NM. The 00Z HREF has the strongest winds from late morning to early afternoon with gusts of 30-40mph along and south of the I-40 corridor. The NBM prob wind gusts >40mph are 20-40% over parts of this area with a few gusts near 50 mph possible around Ruidoso to Dunken (10-30% chance). A Wind Advisory may be needed for southwest Chaves County if winds trend stronger. Max temps will trend cooler areawide Wednesday but with readings close to normal in most areas (+/-5F). Flow aloft will quickly back out of the west then southwest Wednesday night as a shortwave ridge crests over NM. Winds are likely to remain breezy around the high terrain. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 343 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025 ...SIGNIFICANT MULTI-HAZARD SPRING STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEEK... A significant storm with multiple hazards is highly likely to affect New Mexico beginning Thursday and extending through Saturday. There is moderate to high confidence in strong to damaging wind gusts, near zero visibility from blowing dust and snow, areas of significant snowfall, and critical fire weather conditions occurring from this system. Beginning Thursday, the polar and subtropical jet superimpose with each other, creating a corridor of 250mb winds in excess of 140kts. Concurrently, the polar jet dips down across western CONUS, forming a deep, potent trough. The trough will then push eastward, tilting negatively and enhancing the mid-level flow wrapping around the base of the trough, with 700mb speeds forecast to exceed 70kts. As the trough continues its eastward push, rapid cyclogenesis occurs across eastern CO and western KS, with this surface low currently forecast to bottom out in the range of 974-978mb, levels nearing the lowest 5th percentile. This is likely to form a strong pressure gradient along the central mountain chain and down through east central NM. As the base of the trough passes over the state early to mid-day Friday, and the surface pressure gradient tightens with its passage, there is high confidence in strong to damaging wind gusts occurring across a majority of NM, with extra focus on central and eastern NM. Forecast soundings on Friday show a well mixed boundary layer with a hefty subsidence layer resting above, signaling the ability for these 700mb winds to mix down to the surface. These ingredients are what is needed for a significant high wind event across the region. With the trough beginning its passage Thursday, current forecast wind gusts settle around 30-40kts, with Friday amplifying these gusts in excess of 55kts along and east of the central mountains. Along with the strong winds, blowing dust will be of concern across the central and eastern areas, and especially in and around dust- prone areas such as Roswell. Visibility may drop as low as 1/4 mile or less in dust storms. Low visibility and hazardous crosswinds will make for very difficult travel on Friday. Alongside strong winds, areas of significant snowfall will be possible with this system. Orographic lifting will help aid the development of snow showers across the western and northern mountains as PWAT values sit around 0.3in, around the 75th percentile. It is too early to dissect snowfall amounts, but NBM probabilities place a >50% chance for 6in of snowfall across the Tusas Mountains and Gila region. While the snowfall amount is likely to create impacts, there is higher confidence in winter weather impacts coming in the form of blowing snow and potential blizzard conditions. The snowfall is likely to precede the highest wind gusts across the region and also continue while the winds pick up. With that, falling snow and snowpack have a good chance to become blowing snow across the mountains and higher terrain. This, like blowing dust, creates near zero visibility and makes for dangerous travel conditions. Minor to moderate winter impacts have a moderate to high chance of occurring across the western and northern mountains through the timeframe of this system. On the backside of the trough, there is the moderate chance for a second surge of moisture in northwest flow which may trigger another round of orographic snow showers across the western and northern mountains on Saturday. There is still uncertainty in the evolution of this system, and minor changes in its track and timing can have sizable changes to the forecast. The bulk of the uncertainty lies within the timing of the system, with EOF patterns displaying this prominently. A slower, perhaps more northern track would increase all impacts associated with the system, while a faster, more southern track would slightly limit impacts. Overall, our confidence is high in this high impact, multi-hazard storm affecting the region. Continue to stay tuned to forecast updates on this system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM MDT Mon Mar 10 2025 VFR will continue at all terminals the next 24 hrs. Southwest flow aloft will strengthen over the southern Rockies Tuesday and translate to increasing high turb and stronger surface winds. Wind gusts of 20 to 30KT will be common after 1pm at many terminals. Blowing dust may impact the Roswell area Tuesday afternoon but southwest winds are not as favorable for impacts to the terminal. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 343 AM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS... Southwest winds will trend stronger today with single digit humidity south and east of Albuquerque. A few hours of marginally critical fire weather are expected today. The winds are the limiting factor preventing greater coverage of critical conditions. Winds will turn westerly tonight then northwest Wednesday as a low pressure system crosses NM. Critical conditions may develop over the east-central plains. While winds are likely to trend stronger than today, the limiting factor for greater coverage and duration is the humidity. Some moisture advection will also occur as the system crosses NM so confidence is not high enough to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning at this time. Confidence increases for critical conditions across the east-central plains Thursday as stronger southwest winds develop with subcritical humidity expected. The combined probabilities for wind and humidity increase to between 30-50% over the east-central plains and points southward. A powerful storm system will cross the region Thursday night and Friday with potentially damaging west winds along and east of the central mt chain. Increasing chances for snow will also enter northern and western NM with a few to several inches possible in the higher terrain. Eastern NM will be on the downslope windstorm side of this system with potential for more critical fire weather. Temps will be turning colder but given wind gusts of 65-75 mph possible, any fire starts from Thursday may carry easily into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 31 57 32 / 0 5 5 0 Dulce........................... 60 20 54 23 / 0 0 5 0 Cuba............................ 60 27 53 26 / 0 0 10 0 Gallup.......................... 60 23 55 24 / 0 10 10 0 El Morro........................ 59 27 51 25 / 0 10 20 0 Grants.......................... 64 24 55 22 / 0 0 10 0 Quemado......................... 61 27 54 27 / 0 10 20 0 Magdalena....................... 65 33 58 33 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 60 28 54 29 / 0 5 5 0 Reserve......................... 63 25 57 26 / 0 40 30 0 Glenwood........................ 68 31 59 32 / 0 50 50 0 Chama........................... 53 20 48 23 / 0 0 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 61 33 55 33 / 0 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 60 29 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 27 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 55 24 48 25 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 54 21 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 60 21 56 23 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 61 26 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 67 27 63 27 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 31 56 33 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 30 59 31 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 38 61 37 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 37 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 71 36 66 33 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 36 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 72 32 66 30 / 0 0 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 35 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 71 33 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 70 36 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 71 34 65 32 / 0 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 65 35 59 35 / 0 0 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 69 36 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 75 37 68 36 / 0 0 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 32 55 33 / 0 0 5 0 Tijeras......................... 65 33 59 32 / 0 0 10 0 Edgewood........................ 65 30 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 25 60 24 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 61 29 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 65 31 58 30 / 0 0 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 64 31 58 31 / 0 0 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 67 39 61 38 / 0 0 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 62 36 54 39 / 0 10 30 0 Capulin......................... 62 31 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 67 27 63 26 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 26 64 26 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 64 27 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 70 39 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 68 32 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 74 35 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 71 37 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 76 37 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 76 40 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 77 41 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 76 36 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 80 41 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 74 41 65 38 / 0 0 5 0 Elk............................. 72 38 62 38 / 0 0 20 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NMZ126. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...42