633
FXUS65 KABQ 131733
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1133 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

- Minor to moderate risk of flash flooding below burn scars
  through the work week, the becoming high this weekend into
  early next week.

- After decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms today,
  monsoon moisture will begin to increase again near the Arizona
  border late Thursday, and over western and central New Mexico
  Friday. Fairly rich monsoon moisture will then remain in place
  across much of the forecast area through the first half of the
  coming work week with daily rounds of scattered to numerous
  showers and thunderstorms. There will also be a risk of isolated
  flash flooding outside of burn scars Friday through next Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A downtick in shower and thunderstorm coverage with slightly above
average high temperatures is expected this afternoon and evening
due to the 593 to 594 dam upper high centroid moving from north
central AZ to western NM. Isolated coverage is expected across the
north central and Sacramento Mountains with scattered to numerous
coverage across the Gila Mountains near Glenwood and Pleasanton where
higher PWATs of around 0.9 inches will be present. Some of these
showers and storms could move into the nearby highlands resulting in
gusty and erratic winds at locations like Raton, Las Vegas and
Gallup. Any shower and thunderstorm activity in the state will taper
off after sunset with lingering mid level clouds across western and
central NM heading into the dawn.

The 592 to 593 dam upper high moves east to over the NM, CO, OK, and
TX borders Thursday afternoon. This along with a trough entering the
Pacific coast will allow for a traditional monsoon flow to setup
across AZ with far western NM on the eastern edge of this flow.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms will favor the mountains
and nearby highlands along and west of the Continental Divide, where
PWATs will be around 0.7 to 0.95 inches, with isolated to at most
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the north central
mountains and Sacramento Mountains. High temperatures will be 5 to 9
degrees above average areawide. Showers and thunderstorms taper off
around sunset with activity lingering longest near the AZ/NM
border.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Come Friday, the 594 to 595 dam upper high moves off over the middle
Mississippi River Valley due to the trough over the Pacific Coast
inching east over the Great Basin. This will allow the monsoon plume
and associated shower and thunderstorm activity to move into areas
along and west of the central mountain chain, with PWATS in this
plume around 0.8 to 1.1 inches which is around to slightly above
average for mid August. Storm motion will generally be to the north-
northeast and burn scars will need to monitored closely for flash
flooding, especially if they receive multiple rounds of
thunderstorms. Guidance is showing a weak disturbance embedded in
the south-southwest flow moving from northern Mexico to over
southwest and central NM Saturday. This will result in a further
uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage with the highest coverage
across central and southern NM closer to this embedded disturbance.
The burn scars will need to watched for potential flash flooding and
debris flows from multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

Going into Sunday and Monday, the upper high over the central U.S.
begins to pivot back slowly westward. Lingering monsoon moisture and
return flow from the Gulf between the upper high, still mostly
centered over the central U.S., and weak troughing just off the
Pacific coast will help keep a better coverage of shower and
thunderstorms across the state. As usual, shower and thunderstorm
coverage will favor the mountain ranges and nearby highlands during
the early to mid afternoon hours before filling into lower
elevations during the late afternoon and evening hours. Drier
southwest flow could help lower PWATs to around 0.6 inches to the
Four Corners area, including Farmington, resulting in little to no
shower and storm activity. Come Tuesday into mid next week, extended
guidance still depicts a new 597 to 598 dam upper high centroid
developing over and just north of the Four Corners area. East and
northeast flow southeast of this upper high centroid will allow
shower and thunderstorm coverage to favor areas along and west of
the central mountain chain beginning next Wednesday. However, a
disturbance and associated backdoor front moving south across the
Great Plains along the eastern periphery of the upper high could
help enhance shower and thunderstorm coverage across northeast NM
Tuesday and east central and southeast NM next Wednesday before
drier northeast flow moves in across much of eastern NM next
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of the higher
terrain early this afternoon with a overall storm motion generally
being slow and erratic. Coverage will be better across the Gila
Mountains with isolated coverage across the other mountain ranges
this afternoon and early evening. Most showers and storms will
remain over the mountain ranges, but some of this activity could
move into some of the nearby highlands, impacting terminals like at
KGUP and KLVS. The main aviation impact from this activity will be
some gusty winds of up to 40 kts. Lingering mid level clouds across
western and central NM along with light winds areawide overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Generally, a lower coverage across the higher terrain this afternoon
and tomorrow afternoon, except across the Gila Mountains near the
AZ border. Critically low minimum relative humidity values across
west central and northwest areas through tomorrow. A traditional
flow of monsoon moisture is forecast to set up late Thursday but
more so Friday as the upper high shifts east to over the central
U.S. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will favor far western areas
late tomorrow, along and west of the central mountain chain Friday
and then most of the state outside of the Four Corners area,
including Farmington, this weekend into Monday. A new upper high
develops and strengthens just north of the Four Corners area Tuesday
into mid next week. This will help to shift better shower and storm
coverage generally to areas along and west of the central mountain
chain beginning next Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  96  63  90 /   0   5  10  20
Dulce...........................  51  93  50  89 /   5  20  10  50
Cuba............................  56  91  56  87 /   5  20  20  50
Gallup..........................  54  92  55  85 /  10  30  30  60
El Morro........................  56  87  56  81 /  20  50  40  70
Grants..........................  56  92  57  86 /  10  40  30  70
Quemado.........................  58  87  57  81 /  20  60  50  80
Magdalena.......................  63  89  62  86 /   5  30  20  70
Datil...........................  57  86  56  81 /  10  50  30  80
Reserve.........................  55  91  55  87 /  20  70  40  80
Glenwood........................  59  94  60  91 /  20  70  30  70
Chama...........................  51  86  49  83 /   5  30  20  60
Los Alamos......................  62  88  62  86 /   5  20  10  60
Pecos...........................  58  88  58  85 /   5  20  10  40
Cerro/Questa....................  55  87  55  85 /   5  30  10  50
Red River.......................  48  77  48  75 /   5  30  10  50
Angel Fire......................  41  80  41  78 /   5  30   5  40
Taos............................  54  90  53  87 /   0  20  10  40
Mora............................  53  84  52  81 /   5  20  10  40
Espanola........................  60  96  60  94 /   0  20  10  40
Santa Fe........................  62  90  62  87 /   5  10  10  40
Santa Fe Airport................  60  93  60  90 /   5  10  10  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  95  70  92 /   0  10  10  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  97  68  94 /   0   5  10  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  99  67  97 /   0   5  10  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  97  67  94 /   0   5  10  30
Belen...........................  63  99  64  96 /   0   5   5  30
Bernalillo......................  66  97  65  95 /   0   5  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  64  98  63  96 /   0   5   5  30
Corrales........................  66  98  66  96 /   0   5  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  64  98  63  96 /   0   5   5  30
Placitas........................  66  94  65  90 /   0   5  10  30
Rio Rancho......................  67  97  66  94 /   0   5  10  30
Socorro.........................  67  99  67  96 /   0  10  10  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  89  62  86 /   0   5  10  40
Tijeras.........................  64  90  63  87 /   0   5  10  40
Edgewood........................  59  92  59  88 /   0   5   5  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  92  56  89 /   0   5   5  30
Clines Corners..................  60  87  60  83 /   5   5   5  30
Mountainair.....................  61  90  61  87 /   0   5   5  40
Gran Quivira....................  60  89  60  87 /   0  10   5  40
Carrizozo.......................  65  91  65  88 /   5  10  10  40
Ruidoso.........................  60  82  60  81 /   5  20  10  50
Capulin.........................  56  88  57  85 /  10  10  10  10
Raton...........................  54  91  54  88 /   5  20   5  20
Springer........................  54  93  55  90 /   5  10   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  56  87  56  84 /   5  20  10  30
Clayton.........................  62  95  64  93 /   5   0   5   0
Roy.............................  59  92  61  89 /  10  10   5   5
Conchas.........................  65  99  67  96 /   5   5   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  63  95  64  92 /   5   5   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  66  96  67  94 /   5   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  67  99  68  97 /   0   0   5   0
Portales........................  67  99  69  97 /   0   0   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  98  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69 101  70  99 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  63  94  63  92 /   0  10   5  20
Elk.............................  60  90  61  89 /   0  20   5  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71