Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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373 FXUS65 KABQ 281733 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1133 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1124 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Fewer showers and thunderstorms are forecast today and Sunday, but slow storm motion will keep a low risk for flash flooding, mainly on recent burn scars. - Another surge of monsoon moisture moves in for the first week of July, resulting in greater coverage of showers and storms and an increasing risk of flash flooding through the Fourth of July holiday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 109 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 An upper high will continue to slowly strengthen over the region through Sunday to near 593dam at 500mb and become centered over Gallup. A dry airmass will gradually work east and south around the upper high circulation, from northwest NM into central NM, effectively shutting down convection. However, daytime heating triggered and slow-moving convection will continue across south central and eastern NM where relative higher PWATs exist, with moderate potential for more flash flooding in the Ruidoso area. That said, PoPs are trending down and given the lack of impacts on the Ruidoso area burn scars yesterday, we`ll forgo a Flash Flood Watch for today. Temperatures will increase along with pressure heights through Sunday, trending above average across central and western NM with highs well into the 90s at lower elevations locales. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 109 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 The monsoon high will be over the AZ-NM border on Monday with a weak upper low offshore of CA and a progressive shortwave moving into Ontario and the upper Midwest. At the surface, a weak front is projected to enter northeastern NM by Monday morning before getting sent into central and eventually western NM late in the day as convection fires along the moisture advection, surface convergence, and upslope areas. This will spell a big uptick in storm coverage, particularly over the Sangre de Cristos that will benefit the most due to the broad nature of the mountain range and optimal orientation to the moist boundary arrival. SREF PWATs are modeled to run between 0.9 to 1.0 inch along the central mountain chain with higher values of 1.1 to 1.25 in the eastern plains. Areas west of the central mountain chain will undergo a slower moistening with some drier and less efficient storms, especially west of the Continental Divide where virga will be more likely. Synoptic scale models indicate an MCS likely taking shape as multicellular clusters roll off of the central mountain chain into the eastern plains of NM Monday night. Monday night`s convection will deepen a moist, cold pool that will increase moisture advection into the Rio Grande and Continental Divide areas through early Tuesday morning. This will set the stage for more storms creeping westward day-by-day Tuesday through the Fourth of July. PWATs will generally range between 0.75 to 1.25 inch across the forecast area during the Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday time frame with sluggish storm motions creating a locally heavy rainfall threat each afternoon and evening. By the Fourth, the remnants of the Pacific low will be lifting northeastward over the Four Corners as a much weaker shortwave trough. This could introduce a brief belt of modest southwesterly flow over the northern parts of AZ and NM, potentially drying and lowering PWATs, mostly over northwestern NM, into Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 A few showers and thunderstorms are developing over the northern high terrain late this morning. These storms will become slightly more numeorus through the afternoon as they generally shift slowly toward the south or southeast. These storms will be capable of gusty and erratic winds before dissipating by 06Z Sun. KLVS and KTCC may be impacted prior to sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025 The 2025 North American Monsoon is in full swing and there are no critical fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. A few dry thunderstorms are forecast though the weekend and into Monday across portions of western NM, possibly leading to new fire starts. However, hot and dry conditions across western NM through the weekend will be replaced with increasing moisture and good chances for wetting storms from early through late next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 94 51 96 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 89 45 91 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 88 52 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 91 45 93 47 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 87 51 89 55 / 5 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 90 47 92 53 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 88 53 90 56 / 5 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 88 60 90 61 / 10 5 5 0 Datil........................... 86 55 88 56 / 10 5 5 0 Reserve......................... 93 51 96 52 / 10 5 10 5 Glenwood........................ 97 56 98 57 / 20 10 10 5 Chama........................... 83 45 84 47 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 86 61 86 61 / 5 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 85 56 88 55 / 20 0 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 53 85 52 / 10 0 10 10 Red River....................... 75 42 75 43 / 10 0 20 10 Angel Fire...................... 78 34 78 39 / 10 0 20 10 Taos............................ 88 48 88 52 / 5 0 10 5 Mora............................ 83 50 83 49 / 20 0 20 10 Espanola........................ 93 57 95 59 / 5 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 87 59 89 59 / 10 0 5 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 56 93 59 / 10 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 64 95 65 / 5 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 66 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 63 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 64 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 96 61 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 95 62 98 64 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 95 61 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 96 63 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 96 62 98 62 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 92 62 94 63 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 95 64 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 96 64 99 66 / 5 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 59 90 58 / 10 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 89 61 91 60 / 5 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 89 55 90 55 / 10 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 50 91 52 / 10 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 85 56 86 55 / 10 5 5 10 Mountainair..................... 86 57 90 56 / 20 5 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 86 56 88 56 / 20 10 5 10 Carrizozo....................... 86 63 91 63 / 40 20 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 78 58 83 56 / 50 30 50 10 Capulin......................... 85 52 83 52 / 20 10 30 30 Raton........................... 89 52 88 52 / 20 5 30 20 Springer........................ 90 52 89 53 / 20 5 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 86 52 87 52 / 20 5 30 10 Clayton......................... 91 61 91 60 / 20 20 30 40 Roy............................. 88 57 88 57 / 30 20 30 30 Conchas......................... 94 63 94 62 / 20 20 20 40 Santa Rosa...................... 92 61 93 61 / 30 20 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 92 63 92 61 / 5 20 10 40 Clovis.......................... 90 65 92 64 / 5 10 5 40 Portales........................ 91 65 93 64 / 5 20 5 40 Fort Sumner..................... 92 64 93 63 / 10 20 5 20 Roswell......................... 94 67 95 68 / 10 10 5 10 Picacho......................... 88 62 91 62 / 40 20 20 10 Elk............................. 83 59 87 58 / 60 20 30 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...34