665
FXUS65 KABQ 151150 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
450 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 430 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

- The jet stream will bring strong to potentially damaging
  westerly winds to eastern New Mexico Tuesday through Thursday,
  with potential for more rain and high terrain snow across
  western and north central New Mexico.

- There is an increasing threat for rapid fire spread across
  eastern New Mexico and portions of south central New Mexico
  Monday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1230 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

High clouds are approaching from the west this morning as an upper
level ridge crests over NM ahead of the next upper level trough.
A pleasant day is in store with increasing clouds, warmer temps,
and southwest breezes kicking up in the afternoon. Periods of
thick high clouds will continue tonight with slight southwest
breezes keeping low temps 5 to 15F above normal areawide. Monday
will feature more clouds, breezy southwest winds, and well above
normal temps (up to 25F above normal over eastern NM).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Ridge top winds will ramp up quickly Monday night as a 155kt speed
max enters AZ ahead of the next upper level trough. Higher terrain
areas of the Gila region and the central mt chain may see peak gusts
approach 50 mph before sunrise Tuesday. Persistent mixing and more
high clouds ahead of the wave will boost min temps 15 to 25F above
normal, especially over eastern NM.

The general consensus from several of the past model runs is for
a faster trough passage across NM Tuesday. A 170kt speed max will
surge east into northern and central NM Tuesday afternoon with a
strengthening Pacific cold front racing east across the state. The
latest NBM indicates very high chances (>80%) that peak wind
gusts will exceed 60 mph along the Sangre de Cristo Mts, the I-25
corridor of northeast NM, and along the Sacramento/Capitan Mts
into southwest Chaves County. Peak wind gust probabilities over
70 mph are 40-70% in these same areas so damaging winds are
looking more likely. A High Wind Watch has been posted. Numerous
Wind Advisories are also likely in surrounding areas of central
and eastern NM. The faster approach of the upper trough has also
come with enhanced rain/snow chances farther southeast toward the
central mt chain Tuesday. Abundant moisture along the Pacific
front will work with orographics to squeeze out a burst of snow
in the high terrain before precip dissipates along the central mt
chain. Blowing snow in the high terrain with falling temps may
create a 6-12 hour period of very difficult travel. A couple
Winter Wx Advisories are possible along the Cont Divide and the
San Juan/Tusas Mts.

Another shortwave trough moving into northern NM Wednesday with a
135kt speed max will keep winds elevated Tuesday night with another
round of high winds possible over eastern NM Wednesday. The latest
ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is pinning this period for the
most intense winds but MOS guidance and the NBM do not agree quite
yet. The orientation of the jet axis Wednesday is also more zonal
which may enhance the threat for mountain wave crashing along the
east slopes of the central mt chain. Another burst of light snow
is also possible for the northern and western high terrain with
this wave. There is not much change on Thursday with yet another
piece of upper level energy crossing northern NM. The EFI still
hints at potential strong winds over eastern NM. Cold advection
with each wave will lead to progressively colder temps Wednesday
and Thursday. The final upper level wave in this pattern may
impact northern NM Friday with more snow for the northern and
western high terrain along with another bout of strong winds for
eastern NM. This wave is the coldest of the series and temps may
actually fall below normal for the entire region.

Folks planning travel thru the region this week should prepare for
difficult travel at times from hazardous crosswinds, areas of low
visibility with blowing dust, as well as possible slick travel and
low visibility in the northern and western high terrain from snow
and blowing snow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

High clouds will increase in coverage today ahead of a Pacific
storm system. Southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30kt will be common
over northeast NM between noon and 6pm. Otherwise, expect VFR all
areas the next 24 hrs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

There is increasing uncertainty from recent model trends with regard
to the timing and coverage of critical fire weather thru this week.
Nonetheless, a prolonged fire growing pattern is still expected
for eastern NM this week. First, today will be tranquil with
increasing high clouds, warming temps, and slight southwest
breezes.

The approaching Pacific storm system for Tuesday is trending faster
and slightly farther south which may create stronger southwest winds
over parts of eastern NM by Monday. Min RH is low enough to support
critical fire weather along the I-25 corridor of northeast NM where
a few wildfires have occurred recently. Winds are still marginal and
mixing is not very deep but trends suggest changes may occur today.
A Fire Weather Watch will be issued for the Northeast Highlands for
Monday.

By Tuesday, abundant moisture and cooler temps approaching with the
Pacific cold front are trending min RH a tad higher over eastern
NM. However, very strong southwest to west winds will occur in
another area where a few wildfires have occurred lately. Mixing is
also much deeper in the area aligned with higher ERC values. As
such, a Fire Weather Watch will be issued for the Northeast Plains
and East-Central Plains Tuesday.

The fire weather threat continues Wednesday and Thursday and may
expand to even more of eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  34  64  38 /   0   0   0  50
Dulce...........................  58  23  61  30 /   0   0   0  50
Cuba............................  56  28  60  32 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  61  22  62  30 /   0   0   0  40
El Morro........................  61  30  62  33 /   0   0   0  20
Grants..........................  63  24  66  33 /   0   0   0  10
Quemado.........................  63  30  63  35 /   0   0   0  20
Magdalena.......................  61  36  67  41 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  61  31  64  36 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  64  28  66  33 /   0   0   0  30
Glenwood........................  69  30  69  36 /   0   0   0  30
Chama...........................  51  25  53  26 /   0   0   5  40
Los Alamos......................  56  34  57  39 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  59  31  62  36 /   0   0   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  55  31  56  34 /   0   0   0  20
Red River.......................  48  28  48  28 /   0   0   0  20
Angel Fire......................  55  20  56  28 /   0   0   0  20
Taos............................  59  25  61  34 /   0   0   0  10
Mora............................  64  31  67  35 /   0   0   0   5
Espanola........................  63  28  66  39 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  57  35  60  39 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  59  32  62  38 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  40  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  33  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  36  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  66  29  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  65  35  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  66  30  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  66  35  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  66  31  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  61  37  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  64  36  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  68  35  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  35  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  59  36  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  63  32  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  64  24  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  60  32  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  61  34  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  61  33  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  64  38  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  61  40  65  43 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  60  30  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  64  27  70  35 /   0   0   0   5
Springer........................  68  25  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  63  33  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  65  38  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  64  30  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  71  36  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  68  34  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  72  38  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  70  38  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  71  36  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68  31  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69  36  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  70  36  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  69  36  79  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for NMZ104-126.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
NMZ213>215-223-226-229-233-239-240.

Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for NMZ123.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42