277
FXUS65 KABQ 302313
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
513 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 503 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Storms will favor areas along and west of the central mountain
  chain through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty
  and erratic winds can be expected.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across
  western New Mexico today and Monday. Flash flooding could
  result where storms train over the same area repeatedly.

- Above normal high temperatures will raise the risk of heat-
  related illnesses across eastern New Mexico for the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The 595dm H5 high has elongated and progressed eastward over AR, OK,
and northern TX. Monsoonal moisture flowing northward from the Gulf
of California has established a well defined stream through eastern
AZ and western NM, very evident on GOES-East WV imagery. Despite the
influx of moisture in this area, broken to overcast sky coverage
this morning that has been slow to disperse has and will continue to
limit destabilization of the boundary layer. While scattered to
numerous showers are still forecast to breakout along and west of
the Continental Divide this afternoon, much of it should be lacking
in convective strength. This will help limit the flash flood
potential by reducing the risk of locally heavy rainfall producing
thunderstorms. Individual cells will generally move N/NE across
western and northwestern NM late this afternoon and evening,
spreading eastward into portions of the middle and upper Rio Grande
Valley by the evening. Another round of gusty and erratic winds with
potential for blowing dust will threaten areas mainly from Belen
northward through ABQ to Santa Fe. Areas east of the central
mountain chain and eastern plains of NM will remain hot and dry with
high temperatures climbing back into the upper 90s to near 100 for
the lower elevations.

Thereafter, a brief break in precipitation chances arrives around
the midnight hour for western NM before secondary round arrives
there predawn Monday morning. Numerical model and Hi-Res CAMs are in
fairly good agreement for a mesoscale vort-lobe feature generated by
convection over northwestern Mexico today will work its way
northward amid convergent monsoonal flow thru eastern AZ and western
NM. This feature will act to keep shower activity with perhaps a
stray embedded thunderstorm going over northwestern NM Monday
morning. The main forecast challenge is determining whether or not
this feature will exit early enough to allow for some clearing and
diurnal heating of the surface across western NM to allow for CI to
begin Monday afternoon. It does appear this will happen for west-
central NM. Given the monsoon moisture present, likelihood for
diurnal heating, and likely wet soils, a slight risk for excessive
rainfall and flooding remains for Monday. Hi-res CAMs are depicting
an area along the Continental Divide from Pie Town to Grants will be
the most favored area for robust convection capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall Monday afternoon. Outflow producing erratic
gusty winds and blowing dust is again likely to push eastward into
the middle Rio Grande Valley from Belen northward thru ABQ to Santa
Fe late afternoon and early Monday evening. Precipitation steadily
dwindles thru Monday night with lingering broken cloud cover. The
eastern plains look to remain hot, dry, and sunny.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Tuesday begins the long term period with a weakening of the monsoon
plume. PWATs begin to retreat to the 0.80" to 0.90" range with a
notable downtick in afternoon convection. Mid-level dry air also
begins to intrude from the west further helping shut down
precipitation chances. Nevertheless, a few scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will favor development over the south-central
mountains near Ruidoso. Temperatures trend warmer over western NM
relative to Monday thanks to clearer skies, staying hot over eastern
NM. The aforementioned mid-level dry air overtakes the state
Wednesday alongside a protruding portion of the H5 high westward
over NM, bringing little hope for afternoon thunderstorms areawide.

Thereafter, the synoptic scale weather pattern across the western
CONUS becomes a staging ground between three major competing weather
features. Numerical model guidance is depicting a deep 550dm H5
closed low digging down the PacNW, while the H5 high slides back
westward toward KS, with an intensifying tropical cyclone chugging
WNW thru the EPAC southwest of the Baja Peninsula. PWATs begin to
climb as a surge of monsoonal moisture returns to the Desert
Southwest late week into next week. The forecast challenge will be
to what degree and where this plume will favor going precisely
between these converging features.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

It has been a slower start for thunderstorms to develop today, but
activity has begun to develop in portions of western, central and
south central New Mexico early this evening. Storms are currently
more sparse and isolated, but will turn more numerous over far
western New Mexico through mid evening, then transitioning to
more showery batches of rain through midnight and the early
morning. Typical aviation hazards will include lightning, small
hail, gusty downburst winds, and brief downpours under the
stronger cells. Through Monday afternoon, the atmosphere will
slowly destabilize again with new storms redeveloping over the
high terrain of the Continental Divide of western New Mexico,
gradually moving over nearby valleys and lowlands. Hot
temperatures and high density altitude readings will lead to poor
aircraft performance for flights in eastern New Mexico.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Fire weather remains defined by afternoon convection each day today
and Monday. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms will be the rule thru western NM, with gusty and
erratic outflows spreading eastward into the middle Rio Grande
Valley. Moisture trends down while temperatures trend up thru
western NM Tuesday and Wednesday with only limited afternoon
thunderstorm potential each day. Moisture trends back up by the end
of the week and into next weekend. The eastern plains remain hot,
dry, with prevailing southerly to southeasterly winds each day
through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  79  57  83 /  40  60  50   0
Dulce...........................  50  81  47  84 /  40  50  50  10
Cuba............................  57  80  54  82 /  40  40  50   5
Gallup..........................  53  76  49  82 /  60  70  40   0
El Morro........................  52  75  49  80 /  60  60  30   5
Grants..........................  56  80  53  83 /  60  60  30  10
Quemado.........................  56  77  53  80 /  50  60  30  20
Magdalena.......................  61  84  59  83 /  20  40  40  50
Datil...........................  56  78  53  79 /  30  70  30  30
Reserve.........................  56  85  53  88 /  40  50  30  20
Glenwood........................  61  90  56  93 /  40  20  30  10
Chama...........................  51  77  48  77 /  40  50  50  10
Los Alamos......................  61  83  59  81 /  20  30  50  30
Pecos...........................  59  86  56  85 /  10  30  50  20
Cerro/Questa....................  56  82  53  81 /  10  30  30  20
Red River.......................  48  74  46  73 /  10  40  30  30
Angel Fire......................  41  79  39  78 /  20  30  40  40
Taos............................  55  85  52  85 /  20  20  40  20
Mora............................  55  83  52  82 /  10  20  40  50
Espanola........................  61  91  58  90 /  20  20  40  20
Santa Fe........................  63  86  60  85 /  10  20  50  10
Santa Fe Airport................  61  89  57  88 /  10  20  50   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  93  66  92 /  10  20  40  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  93  63  92 /  10  20  40  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  95  62  94 /  20  20  40   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  93  65  92 /  20  20  40  10
Belen...........................  64  94  62  93 /  10  20  40  10
Bernalillo......................  66  94  64  93 /  20  20  40   5
Bosque Farms....................  62  94  60  93 /  10  20  40   5
Corrales........................  66  94  64  93 /  20  20  40   5
Los Lunas.......................  64  94  62  93 /  10  20  40   5
Placitas........................  65  91  64  90 /  10  20  40   5
Rio Rancho......................  67  93  64  92 /  20  20  40   5
Socorro.........................  68  97  66  95 /  10  20  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  87  57  86 /  10  30  40  10
Tijeras.........................  62  87  59  87 /  10  30  40  10
Edgewood........................  59  89  56  88 /  10  30  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  91  55  90 /  10  30  40  30
Clines Corners..................  60  87  57  86 /  10  20  40  30
Mountainair.....................  58  89  56  87 /  10  20  40  20
Gran Quivira....................  60  89  56  87 /  10  20  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  66  92  63  91 /  10  20  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  61  85  57  83 /  10  30  20  50
Capulin.........................  58  86  58  84 /  20  20  20  20
Raton...........................  56  89  54  87 /  10  20  30  30
Springer........................  57  92  56  90 /  10  10  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  57  87  57  86 /  10  10  30  30
Clayton.........................  68  95  66  93 /  10   0   5   5
Roy.............................  62  91  61  89 /  10   0  20  20
Conchas.........................  70  99  69  97 /  10   5  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  68  94  66  92 /  10   0   5  30
Tucumcari.......................  72  99  70  97 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  69  98  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  69  98  69  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  70  99  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  72 100  71  99 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  65  95  63  93 /  10   5   5  40
Elk.............................  62  93  60  91 /   5  10  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...52