521
FXUS65 KABQ 160445
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1045 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1043 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Widespread storms each day this week will focus over northern
  and western New Mexico, with lesser coverage across the east.
  Small hail, gusty outflow winds, and localized flash flooding
  may occur with stronger storms during the afternoon and evening
  hours.

- There is a low risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn
  scars through Thursday, then at least a low to moderate risk
  from Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A complex weather pattern evolving across the western U.S. will
make for a tricky convective forecast over the next several days.
The main axis of monsoon moisture stretches from south to north
across AZ and western NM while a broad area of upper level dry air
is wedged along the Front Range. Meanwhile, a series of easterly
waves are stacked from the southern Baja into south TX and OK. The
large-scale flow pattern will undergo a squeeze play across NM as
the easterly waves move northwestward and a new upper level high
center begins to form around northern CO. This squeeze play is
already resulting in a speed max strengthening to near 50kt along
the central mt chain. Low level moisture is also deepening across
the region with southeasterly flow building to near 700mb over
southeast NM. The deeper moisture, improving lift, daytime heating,
and orographics will allow showers and storms to continue around
the high terrain today. Storms will move south to southwest into
nearby highlands and valleys on convective outflows thru late this
evening. Another gap wind will develop in the RGV this evening
with gusts near 40 mph likely. 24-hr LPMM QPF from ensemble CAMs
shows locally heavy rainfall >1" over the northern and western
high terrain. The upper level dry air and subsidence over eastern
NM is capping convection east of the central mt chain. This dry
air aloft will spread west tonight and be positioned more over
central NM Thursday. There is also a 20-30% chance of low stratus
to develop westward into southeast NM late tonight as richer low
level moisture advects into the area.

There is conflicting guidance on storm coverage Thursday depending
on exactly where the aforementioned dry wedge lines up over the
area. The easterly wave over south TX may have made enough progress
to the northwest to allow for showers and storms to increase over
southeast NM while the main storm axis focuses from the northern
mountains down the Cont Divide to the Gila region. 24-hr LPMM QPF
from ensemble CAMs does indicate a downtick in storm footprints
>1". Storm motions Thursday may also be slower and more erratic
from northeast to southwest as the upper level wind field becomes
more deformed over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

By Friday and Saturday, low level moisture will continue deepening
over the area while 700-500mb layer flow starts to veer southward
and the Baja shortwave trough drifts north toward southwest AZ.
PWATs are shown increasing to near 1.1" at KABQ and near 1.5" at
KEPZ. Steering flow is likely to weaken over the region and become
more east/west Friday thru Saturday. The main focus for storms is
most likely to center over northern and western NM again. WPC QPF
favors this area and NBM 90th percentile QPF shows daily bullseyes
>1". Northeast NM and perhaps parts of central NM may remain under
the pocket of drier and more stable upper level dry air so storm
coverage will depend on how that evolves.

Model agreement falls off considerably Sunday and Monday as the
H5 high center over the central Rockies begins to drift southeast
into the Great Plains. The GFS shows a broad area of dry and stable
upper level air over the central U.S. building southwest into NM
for most of next week with hotter temps. However, the ECMWF and
NBM continue to favor the axis of monsoon moisture along and west
of the central mt chain thru early next week with locally heavy
rainfall still possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Overall not much change in the forecast from the previous TAF
package. Thunderstorm activity may not be quite a widespread as
today and more isolated. Highest chances for TSRA are most likely
KSAF, KFMN and KGUP. KABQ and KAEG have less of a chance and lower
confidence as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

There is no critical fire weather expected for the next two weeks.
Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall will develop over the
high terrain each day then move into nearby highlands and valleys
thru the evening hours. Steering flow will be generally northeast to
southwest thru Thursday, more east to west Friday thru Sunday, then
eventually south to north thru next week. Min humidity each day will
average 20 to 30% with good to excellent overnight recoveries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  91  62  89 /  50  40  40  30
Dulce...........................  48  86  48  85 /  50  80  50  70
Cuba............................  55  82  56  81 /  60  40  40  60
Gallup..........................  52  84  53  81 /  90  50  50  60
El Morro........................  54  79  54  78 /  90  60  50  60
Grants..........................  55  84  55  82 /  80  60  40  50
Quemado.........................  56  79  55  79 /  90  70  40  60
Magdalena.......................  61  81  61  81 /  70  40  20  50
Datil...........................  57  76  57  77 /  80  60  30  60
Reserve.........................  54  82  53  83 /  50  80  30  70
Glenwood........................  57  87  55  87 /  30  70  30  60
Chama...........................  47  78  47  78 /  70  80  60  70
Los Alamos......................  60  81  62  81 /  50  40  30  60
Pecos...........................  52  81  54  81 /  40  50  30  80
Cerro/Questa....................  54  79  54  79 /  60  80  40  60
Red River.......................  45  70  46  71 /  40  80  40  70
Angel Fire......................  40  75  40  75 /  30  70  40  70
Taos............................  50  81  51  81 /  50  70  40  60
Mora............................  50  77  52  78 /  30  50  30  70
Espanola........................  59  89  60  88 /  40  40  30  50
Santa Fe........................  59  82  61  82 /  30  50  30  70
Santa Fe Airport................  57  86  59  85 /  30  30  30  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  89  66  88 /  50  30  30  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  89  63  89 /  50  20  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  92  63  91 /  40  10  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  90  66  90 /  50  10  30  40
Belen...........................  61  91  62  91 /  40  10  20  30
Bernalillo......................  63  91  65  91 /  50  20  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  59  90  61  90 /  40  10  20  30
Corrales........................  63  92  65  91 /  50  20  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  61  91  63  91 /  40  10  20  30
Placitas........................  63  87  65  86 /  50  30  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  64  91  65  90 /  50  20  30  40
Socorro.........................  66  93  68  93 /  40  20  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  83  60  82 /  60  40  30  60
Tijeras.........................  58  84  60  83 /  50  30  30  60
Edgewood........................  54  85  57  85 /  40  30  20  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  86  53  86 /  30  20  20  50
Clines Corners..................  53  81  55  81 /  30  20  10  50
Mountainair.....................  55  85  56  85 /  30  20  20  60
Gran Quivira....................  56  83  57  83 /  30  20  10  60
Carrizozo.......................  61  86  62  85 /  10  30  10  60
Ruidoso.........................  53  78  55  78 /   5  40  10  70
Capulin.........................  52  79  53  81 /   5  10  10  10
Raton...........................  53  84  53  85 /  10  30  10  20
Springer........................  54  85  55  86 /  10  10  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  52  80  55  81 /  20  30  20  50
Clayton.........................  59  87  61  89 /   0   0   5   5
Roy.............................  57  83  58  84 /  10   0  10  20
Conchas.........................  62  91  63  92 /   5   0  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  59  86  61  87 /  10   0  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  62  91  64  91 /   0   0   5  10
Clovis..........................  61  88  63  88 /   0   0   5  20
Portales........................  61  89  63  89 /   0   0   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  61  90  64  90 /   0   0   5  10
Roswell.........................  65  90  67  91 /   5   0   5  20
Picacho.........................  58  86  61  86 /   0  10   0  40
Elk.............................  54  83  57  84 /   0  20   5  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...39