444
FXUS65 KABQ 050831
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
231 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

- Hazardous crosswinds gusting 35 to 50 mph will impact travel for
  high profile vehicles across eastern NM Tuesday afternoon.

- Valley rain and high mountain snow bring minor travel impacts to
  northwestern NM Tuesday and Tuesday night, expanding across the
  northern mountains Wednesday and Wednesday night.

- Late season hard freeze will pose a risk to newly budding
  places and sensitive vegetation over northern valley areas
  Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

A 560dm H5 low entering SoCal this morning with a 110kt speed max
and associated deep tap of subtropical moisture will continue moving
east into the southwest CONUS today. The 12Z NAEFS projected PWATs
near +4 standard deviations above climo entering southern AZ this
morning. Radar trends show a large area of rain over south-central
AZ moving quickly northeast on the eastern flank of the upper level
speed max. Top-down moistening over NM will give way to increasing
coverage of light rain and rain showers thru this morning. Guidance
has come into better agreement with keeping a closed low near 560dm
just west of Flagstaff at 6pm today. Improving jet dynamics moving
into western NM ahead of the low with strong moisture advection,
SBCAPE near 400 J/kg, and lifted indices to -2C, will allow showers
and storms to increase in coverage during the afternoon. Storms
will be moving northeast near 35 mph with locally strong winds and
small hail possible. The stronger winds aloft will also help to
generate strong southwest winds over the southern high terrain
today. 00Z MOS guidance trended a tad weaker in this area but the
latest REFS is still showing gusts >50 mph over the Ruidoso area
(Wind Advisory remains in effect).

The focus then shifts to a northern stream upper level wave diving
south into western CO tonight and Wednesday. The evolution of the
upper level pattern will be complex and there is still uncertainty
amongst model guidance on how this will happen. There are two model
camps emerging. The first shows a more progressive northern stream
wave moving southeast in the wake of the initial Pacific low thru
Wednesday evening. The second group carves out a sharper wave over
northern NM Wednesday night before exiting eastern NM on Thursday
morning. The northern stream wave is cold for early May with 700mb
temps falling to between -3 and -6C over northern NM. Meanwhile,
a backdoor cold front draped over northeast NM will move southwest
toward the central mt chain Wednesday while a Pacific cold front
enters northwest NM. Valley rain and mountain snow will develop
across northern NM Wednesday as the upper level storm system moves
southeast. The residence time and sharpness of the upper wave will
dictate how much snow falls in the higher terrain and northeast
NM. At this time, confidence is moderate to high for at least 3 to
6" of snow above 7,500 ft Wednesday and Wednesday night. The REFS
and NBM snow probs >4" are already >60%. The high- end scenario
(90th percentile) is for 5 to 10", including accumulating snowfall
along I-25 at Raton Pass and U.S. 64/87 into Colfax and Union
counties. A Winter Wx Advisory will be issued if trends continue.
There is also a moderate chance that a sharp line of showers and
storms moves south along the Pacific cold front over northwest NM
and into the ABQ/SAF metro areas late Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 219 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

Strong cold advection in the wake of the departing storm system
Wednesday night will lead to a widespread freeze across much of
northern NM. Freeze Watches may be warranted for the area from
Raton to Las Vegas, Clayton, Santa Rosa, Santa Fe, and Farmington.

Thursday will feature warmer temps with lighter winds and gradual
clearing. The remainder of the extended forecast is dominated by
northwest flow aloft as a large upper level ridge builds along the
West Coast. Temps Friday will trend even warmer with most areas
around 5F above normal. Stronger northwest flow Saturday may lead to
widespread breezy winds with low humidity and very warm temps. An
upper level wave moving southeast from the northern Rockies Sunday
may force a strong backdoor cold front into eastern NM. There are
increasing chances for some storms along and east of the central mt
chain while the west remains warm and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Cigs are lowering across western NM late this evening ahead of a
rich tap of moisture and associated rain showers. There are high
chances for MVFR cigs and lcl IFR over west-central and southwest
NM thru sunrise, including KGUP. Icing, mt obscuration, and turb
will accompany this area of rain. Farther east, LLWS and mt waves
continue along and east of the central mt chain. The focus will
shift to TSRA Tuesday afternoon as a Pacific storm system shifts
east into NM. Storm motion will be toward the east-northeast
around 30KT. The greatest chance for storms will be over the
northwest quarter of NM, including KFMN, KAEG and KSAF from 2pm
to 7pm. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front draped over northeast NM
will create a northeast wind shift with periods of MVFR cigs thru
Tuesday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Tue May 5 2026

There are no widespread areas of critical fire weather expected
for the next 7 days. A moist Pacific storm system approaching from
the west will spread showers & storms with wetting rainfall into
western NM this morning. Many areas along and west of the central
mt chain have high chances to pick up between 0.10" and 0.20" with
locally higher amounts over 0.40" thru tonight. A colder storm
system will dive south from CO Wednesday with valley rain and
mountain snow spreading across northern NM. Snowfall amounts of
3-6" are expected in the Sangre de Cristo Mts and perhaps the
Raton Ridge. Snow levels may fall to near 6,000` across northeast
NM on Wednesday night as a strong cold front surges south thru the
area. A warming trend is still expected Thursday thru the weekend
as an upper level ridge builds along the West Coast. Northwest
winds may become strong enough Saturday with subcritical humidity
to produce localized areas of critical fire weather. Another
backdoor cold front may slide into eastern NM Sunday with higher
chances for showers & storms east of the central mt chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  43  62  32 /  30  40  40   5
Dulce...........................  62  31  57  19 /  30  60  70  20
Cuba............................  60  33  59  25 /  70  50  60  20
Gallup..........................  60  31  62  23 /  70  30  50  10
El Morro........................  57  32  60  28 /  70  30  40  20
Grants..........................  62  32  63  25 /  60  20  40  20
Quemado.........................  61  31  62  30 /  60  20  20  20
Magdalena.......................  65  38  66  38 /  50  10  10  20
Datil...........................  60  33  61  33 /  60  10  20  20
Reserve.........................  65  29  69  31 /  60  10  10  10
Glenwood........................  69  33  73  36 /  60  10   5  10
Chama...........................  57  29  49  20 /  40  70  80  30
Los Alamos......................  61  39  59  34 /  50  60  60  30
Pecos...........................  62  33  61  28 /  50  50  60  50
Cerro/Questa....................  60  35  52  24 /  30  60  80  50
Red River.......................  52  29  42  17 /  40  70  90  60
Angel Fire......................  57  25  49  15 /  40  60  90  70
Taos............................  64  32  57  20 /  30  50  70  50
Mora............................  63  32  58  24 /  40  40  80  70
Espanola........................  68  38  65  33 /  40  50  50  40
Santa Fe........................  62  38  61  33 /  50  50  60  40
Santa Fe Airport................  65  37  65  32 /  40  50  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  43  68  39 /  60  40  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  41  70  37 /  50  30  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  70  40  73  36 /  50  30  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  43  70  38 /  50  40  30  20
Belen...........................  70  38  74  35 /  50  20  20  20
Bernalillo......................  69  42  71  37 /  50  40  40  20
Bosque Farms....................  70  37  73  33 /  50  30  30  20
Corrales........................  70  42  72  38 /  50  40  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  70  39  73  36 /  50  30  20  20
Placitas........................  64  43  66  38 /  50  40  40  30
Rio Rancho......................  69  43  70  38 /  50  40  30  20
Socorro.........................  75  43  76  42 /  40  10  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  38  62  33 /  50  40  30  30
Tijeras.........................  62  38  64  33 /  60  40  30  30
Edgewood........................  64  35  65  29 /  50  40  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  67  33  67  25 /  50  30  30  30
Clines Corners..................  62  35  61  29 /  30  20  50  40
Mountainair.....................  65  35  66  31 /  50  20  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  65  37  65  32 /  40  20  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  68  44  69  40 /  30  10   5  10
Ruidoso.........................  60  41  62  35 /  20   5   5   5
Capulin.........................  59  30  39  19 /  50  80  90  60
Raton...........................  66  33  47  20 /  50  70  90  60
Springer........................  69  35  55  23 /  30  50  90  60
Las Vegas.......................  65  35  59  26 /  30  30  70  70
Clayton.........................  61  35  44  28 /  40  70  70  60
Roy.............................  68  36  56  27 /  30  30  70  60
Conchas.........................  77  43  71  34 /  20  20  40  70
Santa Rosa......................  73  43  70  33 /  10  10  20  50
Tucumcari.......................  78  43  70  36 /  10  20  20  60
Clovis..........................  80  47  74  37 /   5   5  10  20
Portales........................  81  48  78  36 /   5   5   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  78  45  76  36 /  10   5  10  30
Roswell.........................  80  50  79  42 /   5   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  73  45  73  36 /  10   0   5   5
Elk.............................  70  43  70  33 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ226-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42