889
FXUS65 KABQ 222101
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
301 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

- Dry conditions with afternoon breeziness can be expected
  Thursday through Saturday with increasing temperatures each day

- The risk for heat-related illnesses increases over Chaves
  County Friday and Saturday where highs flirt with triple digits

- Increasing low level moisture Sunday through next Wednesday
  with a chance of thunderstorms, mainly east of the Rio Grande
  Valley

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Due to modest but lingering moisture from the recent backdoor cold
front, CAMs depict a few gusty showers and thunderstorms over
northeast areas near the CO border early this evening. Then, a
return flow of low level moisture will produce areas of low clouds
late tonight until mid morning Friday across northeast and east
central areas, and potentially as far south as Roswell by sunrise.
Dewpoint depressions will be low enough for some patchy fog in
the mix along the eastern border from Clovis northward, but it
shouldn`t be that widespread or impactful with all the low cloud
cover.

Otherwise, a low amplitude ridge of high pressure will cause the
warming trend to continue through Friday, when high temperatures
will climax a few to around 13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. A
strong lee trough and ample atmospheric mixing will produce wind
gusts in the 30-40 mph range from around Clines Corners to around
Roy on Friday afternoon, including Las Vegas and Conchas. Roswell
will probably reach 100 F for the first time this season on Friday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

The ridge aloft will gradually shift east of NM on Saturday, but
not before producing another batch of high temperatures a few to
around 11 degrees above 30-year averages. Roswell looks to peak
around 102 F on Saturday.

The week ahead will feature high temperatures near and above
average along and west of the central mountain chain with daily
readings a few to several degrees below average farther east.
Moist backdoor cold fronts are forecast to plunge into the eastern
plains nightly, then mix northeastward at least part of the way
out of the forecast area each afternoon. This will set us up for
daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and east of
the central mountain chain. An upper level trough tracking
eastward over the central Rockies on Monday will help invigorate
thunderstorm activity over the area, and probably spread some
cells over northwest and north central areas...potentially as far
south as Albuquerque. Some dry and gusty storms will likely be in
the mix west of the central mountain chain. In the wake of the
upper trough a moist backdoor front will probably propagate into
central areas Monday night, and potentially as far west as the
continental divide, setting the state for broader coverage of
scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms across most of the
forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. Again, some storms will
produce gusty winds with little or no rain mainly west of the
central mountain chain on Tuesday and Wednesday. In addition,
northwest flow aloft looks to set up Monday through Wednesday,
which is notorious for producing strong to severe thunderstorms
east of the central mountain chain. Much of northeast and east
central NM is forecast to accumulate around a half inch of
rainfall during the first half of the coming work week, with
locally higher amounts likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions are forecast this afternoon and evening. Winds will
be a little gusty this afternoon along and west of the central
mountain chain, where high temperatures as much as 13 degrees
above 1991-2020 averages will result in significantly higher
density altitude than normally experienced this time of year.
Highs will be closer to average across the northeast and east
central plains, where a backdoor cold front arrived last night. Rich
Gulf moisture is forecast to advect all the way to the east slopes
of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains tonight, and potentially further
south. Late tonight until mid morning on Friday, areas of low
clouds, and perhaps some patchy fog, will produce MVFR and
locally IFR conditions across northeast and east central areas
impacting KLVS and KTCC. There is a 25% chance these low clouds
will reach KROW, and a 10% chance they will work they way over
KSAF, by sunrise Friday. If a low ceiling does form over Roswell
or Santa Fe, it shouldn`t last more than a few hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Marginally critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday
afternoon from around Clines Corners and Las Vegas To around Roy
and Conchas. Single digit humidities are likely there, but wind
speeds may only barely reach red flag conditions. Given ERCs
around 75th percentile and green-up reported by local residents,
will consider these conditions too marginal to warrant a fire
weather headline. Otherwise, the first half of the coming week
will feature Gulf moisture sloshing in each night, then mixing
eastward to some extent again each afternoon. Wetting showers and
thunderstorms will favor locations along and east of the central
mountain chain, with a mix of wet and dry activity west of the
central mountain chain. An exception will be Monday, as the
moisture is just beginning to arrive over the Central Highlands
and central mountains, where/when some dry storms will probably be
in the mix as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  86  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  38  81  37  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  46  82  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  39  84  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  44  80  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  41  85  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  45  84  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  53  87  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  48  83  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  42  89  42  85 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  49  92  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  39  75  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  53  81  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  48  80  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  47  78  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  40  68  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  35  73  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  42  81  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  42  79  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  48  89  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  52  82  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  49  86  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  89  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  91  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  52  94  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  91  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  50  95  50  92 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  53  93  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  49  94  50  91 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  54  93  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  50  94  51  91 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  57  88  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  55  92  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  56  98  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  52  86  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  47  86  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  87  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  45  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  49  86  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  49  86  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  91  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  55  84  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  47  81  46  80 /  20   0   0   0
Raton...........................  46  86  45  86 /  10   0   0   0
Springer........................  47  86  44  87 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  45  82  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  54  89  52  82 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  49  86  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  55  93  51  93 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  52  90  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  55  92  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  58  94  60  95 /   0   5   0   0
Portales........................  58  95  60  97 /   0   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  54  94  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  62 100  62 102 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  55  95  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  55  94  56  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44