Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
265 FXUS65 KABQ 231139 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 539 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 512 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will increase over northern New Mexico this weekend and Monday before expanding to the entire forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. - Through Wednesday, storms will be capable of heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, especially on burn scars. Other areas which receive repeated rounds of rainfall will be susceptible to flooding. - Widespread rain and cloud cover will lead to cooler temperatures for the upcoming week. Wednesday may feel more like fall for many areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 100 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 The upper level high over the Four Corners will wobble to the northwest over southern UT this morning, before wobbling back over northwest NM late today and over southern NM Sunday. As it does so, it will be weakening from 596dam to 593dam. The monsoon plume of moisture is currently taking the scenic route into NM - traveling through AZ/SoCal northward before rounding the high and back into NM. As such, more moisture resides across northern NM, while a dry slot is wedged across southern NM. The dry slot will not be as pronounced on Sunday, but better moisture will still reside across the north. Therefore, areas north of I-40 will be favored for shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend. Storm motion will be slow and erratic today, but will move toward the east or northeast on Sunday. A slight uptick in PWATs, thanks to a weak boundary nosing into northeast NM this morning, combined with the slow storm motions may lead to heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar between noon and 9 pm MDT, though some of the heavier rainfall may occur northeast of there per the latest CAMs. Can`t rule out a strong storm or two with gusty winds and small hail as well given modest instability and 20-30kt of 0-6km bulk shear. PWATs may have a slight downtick on Sunday, but locally heavy rainfall will remain possible. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 100 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 On Sunday night, a weak wave will spark additional storms over the Colorado Sangre de Cristo Mountains and portions of northeast NM. These storms will slide to the southeast, helping to push a boundary into northeast and east central NM Monday. Meanwhile, the upper high will continue to sag southeastward over southern NM and AZ. The boundary, and the increase in moisture behind it, combined with lower H5 heights should lead to an increase in storm coverage on Monday, with rain persisting through the overnight hours across northeast NM. Between 1 and 1.5" of rain should be common across northeast NM Monday afternoon through Monday night. Otherwise, Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the most active in terms of widespread precipitation. The upper high will continue to trek southeastward over Texas while a baggy trough sets up over the western U.S. This will set up traditional mid-level monsoon flow over NM with PWATs climbing between 1 and 1.2 inches. This combined with low level easterly upslope flow across eastern NM and weak disturbances in the flow aloft should yield widespread precipitation beginning Tuesday, lingering through the overnight hours Tuesday night and through the day Wednesday. However by Wednesday afternoon, southerly flow will prevail from the surface through 300mb. This brings up concerns about instability and rainfall rates both days, but especially Wednesday. Forecast soundings show increasingly moist adiabatic profiles late Tuesday through the day Wednesday. Thus, this will primarily be a widespread moderate rain event, especially on Wednesday, with areas of heavy rainfall thanks to prolonged efficient rainfall processes. That is, the rainfall won`t come all at once as is often the case in the monsoon, but the rainfall will be persistent such that over time, flooding may occur. Those areas that will see heavy rainfall this weekend and Monday may see flooding issues with the persistent rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday will be the transition day between the thunderstorms and heavy rainfall rates earlier in the afternoon, becoming more steady rainfall by late in the day. The widespread cloud cover and precipitation will lead to much cooler temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas along and east of the Central Mountain Chain on Tuesday will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal on Tuesday, and all areas will be 5 to 15 degrees below normal on Wednesday. These temps might make it feel a little like fall. Drier air will start to push into western NM on Thursday as westerly flow begins to return. This will focus the moisture plume over eastern NM. The plume may be further disrupted on Friday with weak westerly flow aloft continues. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z. Thereafter, today`s round of showers and thunderstorms will develop which should be more numerous across northern NM than on Friday. Heavy rainfall may reduce visibilities, and gusty outflows may result in peak gusts around 35 kts. Storm motions will be slow and erratic. A few storms across northeast NM may contain small hail and gusts to 45kts. Much of the storm activity will diminish by 06Z, but a few showers may linger through 09Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 A change in the weather pattern will lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over the next few days. Northern NM will be favored for precipitation this weekend and Monday, then widespread precipitation is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Nearly all areas should see around an inch of precipitation through the period, but areas across north central and northeast NM could see as much as 2-5 inches. This will keep any fire weather concerns at bay. A trend toward cooler temperatures and higher humidities will be on tap through Wednesday, then the trend will slowly reverse during the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 93 67 88 64 / 30 60 50 60 Dulce........................... 87 50 83 50 / 70 60 70 70 Cuba............................ 85 57 80 57 / 40 60 50 60 Gallup.......................... 89 57 85 55 / 50 50 50 50 El Morro........................ 85 57 82 57 / 50 50 60 50 Grants.......................... 88 58 84 57 / 40 50 60 50 Quemado......................... 86 59 84 59 / 50 40 50 40 Magdalena....................... 86 63 85 63 / 10 20 30 20 Datil........................... 84 57 82 58 / 30 20 40 30 Reserve......................... 90 56 88 57 / 30 20 30 20 Glenwood........................ 93 61 92 60 / 20 10 20 10 Chama........................... 80 48 77 49 / 70 70 70 70 Los Alamos...................... 82 59 80 59 / 50 60 60 60 Pecos........................... 80 56 80 56 / 40 50 40 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 78 52 78 53 / 70 70 70 70 Red River....................... 67 45 69 45 / 70 70 70 70 Angel Fire...................... 71 41 73 41 / 70 70 70 60 Taos............................ 81 53 81 52 / 60 70 60 60 Mora............................ 74 49 77 50 / 60 60 50 60 Espanola........................ 89 58 87 59 / 50 60 40 60 Santa Fe........................ 82 61 81 61 / 40 50 40 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 60 85 59 / 30 40 30 50 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 69 87 69 / 20 30 30 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 92 67 89 68 / 10 20 20 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 94 66 91 67 / 10 20 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 68 89 68 / 20 20 20 30 Belen........................... 94 64 92 66 / 10 20 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 93 66 89 66 / 20 20 20 30 Bosque Farms.................... 93 64 91 65 / 10 20 10 20 Corrales........................ 93 67 90 67 / 20 20 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 93 66 91 67 / 10 20 10 20 Placitas........................ 89 66 86 64 / 20 30 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 92 66 89 67 / 20 20 30 30 Socorro......................... 93 66 92 67 / 5 10 10 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 59 82 60 / 20 30 30 30 Tijeras......................... 86 61 84 62 / 20 20 30 30 Edgewood........................ 86 56 85 57 / 20 20 20 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 55 86 56 / 10 20 20 30 Clines Corners.................. 81 56 80 58 / 10 30 20 30 Mountainair..................... 85 57 84 60 / 10 20 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 85 57 84 59 / 5 10 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 87 61 85 62 / 5 10 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 78 56 77 57 / 10 10 20 0 Capulin......................... 74 53 78 53 / 50 60 50 70 Raton........................... 78 53 82 52 / 60 60 70 70 Springer........................ 81 55 85 55 / 50 70 50 50 Las Vegas....................... 78 53 80 55 / 50 60 40 50 Clayton......................... 83 59 86 61 / 20 30 20 60 Roy............................. 81 58 83 59 / 30 50 20 50 Conchas......................... 90 64 91 64 / 20 30 10 40 Santa Rosa...................... 88 61 88 63 / 10 30 10 30 Tucumcari....................... 89 61 90 62 / 10 20 0 30 Clovis.......................... 90 63 89 66 / 5 10 0 10 Portales........................ 91 64 90 67 / 5 10 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 90 65 90 66 / 5 20 0 10 Roswell......................... 94 66 94 67 / 0 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 87 59 87 61 / 0 5 5 0 Elk............................. 83 56 83 57 / 0 5 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214- 215-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...34