383
FXUS65 KABQ 052045
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
245 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 243 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop today,
  Friday, and Saturday across the eastern plains, with large hail
  and damaging wind gusts the main threats.

- Showers and storms will continue to favor eastern New Mexico
  through the late weekend before expanding to central areas of
  the state Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Heavy
  rainfall will be possible in isolated areas with a risk of
  localized flash flooding over recent wildfire burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Isolated thunderstorms have struggled to mature due to a capping
inversion still present in eastern NM. Over the next few hours, that
cap is likely to erode, paving the way for more mature thunderstorms
to develop. Given a lack of significant upper level forcing but with
robust severe characteristics (3000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE, widespread
50-60kt 0-6km bulk shear), any mature updraft is likely going to
turn severe quickly and remain discrete. Mid level lapse rates
approaching 7 C/km support the threat of large to isolated giant
hail in any mature supercells across the current Tornado Watch. A
tornado threat does appear to increase based on hi-res forecast
soundings, specifically with an increase in low level winds across
southeast NM in the evening hours. 0-1km SRH values begin to
increase over 150 m2/s2, a sufficient parameter favoring tornadoes.
However, this threat is conditional on storms remaining close to
surface based, as any higher based storms would shift to a wind/hail
threat. Nevertheless, severe storms with all hazards remain possible
across southeast NM through the evening hours. Further north in
northeast NM, an additional threat area remains, mainly for large
hail and damaging winds, though confidence is slightly lower at this
time. A backdoor front pushes into northeast NM later tonight, which
will help drive up precipitation and storm chances across the
aforementioned lower confidence area, though whether these storms
become strong to severe further into the night is very uncertain.

The backdoor front replenishes moisture across the area Friday, with
another round of strong to severe storms possible. A question with
storm development is can a low level cap be overcome with a lack of
significant synoptic forcing. Any storm that can break the cap would
be a similar story to today, progressing to severe levels rather
quick given sufficient instability and bulk shear parameters. SPC
has a slight risk painted across the far eastern plains for Friday,
and this aligns with the current thinking when it comes to the best
chance for storm development. High temperatures across the state
range from 5 below to 5 above average for early June on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Weak ridging builds over the state Saturday, limiting precipitation
chances to just isolated storm chances across the eastern plains.
Otherwise, a relatively calm first half of the weekend is in store.
The ridge breaks down Sunday with a potent upper low across the
Upper Midwest. As the ridge breaks down, the first of many
sequential backdoor fronts begin to enter northeast NM, continuing
to replenish moisture across the area. As such, precipitation
chances begin to rise on Sunday, with strong to severe storms once
again possible across the eastern plains. Into Monday, northwest to
west upper level flow combined with another moist front look to
produce the highest PoPs of the long term period, with the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains looking to get quite the brunt of precipitation
before it moves off into the eastern plains. This induces some
concern for burn scar flash flooding across HPCC, though a few days
without rainfall will help limit chances. Moisture continues to be
in place across the region, beginning to spill through the central
mountain chain and increasing PoPs into central NM into Tuesday and
Wednesday. West-central and western NM, based on forecast soundings,
may be favored for virga showers, with wetting precipitation focused
on eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions are slowly eroding across eastern NM as of
17z, which will give way to VFR conditions across the state through
the rest of the afternoon and evening. Scant showers are moving over
northwest NM near KFMN, and may produce a gusty outflow wind or two
through 20z. Additional virga showers may develop over western NM
through the afternoon, producing localized gusty outflow winds. The
larger story is afternoon and evening development of strong to
severe thunderstorms across eastern NM. Confidence in these storms
affecting any one TAF site is low, but any storm that matures will
be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Later tonight, a
backdoor front pushes into northeast NM, and accompanying it is
likely to be another batch of low clouds. Confidence was not high
enough to put MVFR to IFR conditions in northeast TAF sites (KLVS,
KTCC), but those conditions may be sporadic across northeast NM
through the overnight hours around KCAO and KRTN, even seeping
closer to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the Interstate 40
corridor.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Warmer and drier conditions have settled into western NM, where low
teen to single digit humidity values have induced elevated fire
weather conditions. This trend is very likely to continue across
western and southwest NM through at least Saturday. Eastern and
northern NM continue to see chances for thunderstorms with wetting
footprints tonight through Friday, with Saturday being the lowest
chance for precipitation across the board. A series of moist
backdoor fronts beginning late weekend will continue to replenish
moisture in eastern NM, with precipitation chances rising across the
central mountain chain eastward each afternoon and evening. Central
and western NM may see precipitation mid next week, though some
gusty virga showers with a dry lightning strike or two may be
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  84  52  86 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  40  79  40  81 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  48  80  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  42  83  42  85 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  47  80  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  45  85  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  47  84  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  53  87  56  88 /   0   5   0   0
Datil...........................  48  84  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  45  90  45  92 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  49  93  51  95 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  39  73  41  76 /   5   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  53  79  56  81 /   0   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  49  79  53  81 /   0  10   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  45  76  47  78 /  10  10   0   5
Red River.......................  38  67  41  70 /  10  10   0   5
Angel Fire......................  36  73  38  74 /   5  10   0   5
Taos............................  44  79  44  81 /   5   5   0   0
Mora............................  43  78  46  79 /   5  10   5   5
Espanola........................  51  86  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  52  81  56  83 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  51  84  53  87 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  88  62  89 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  90  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  93  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  90  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  53  93  55  94 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  56  91  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  52  92  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  56  92  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  54  92  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  57  86  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  57  90  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  59  97  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  82  54  83 /   0   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  53  85  56  86 /   0   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  50  84  50  85 /   0   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  86  46  86 /   0   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  49  80  50  81 /   0  10   0   0
Mountainair.....................  50  86  52  86 /   0   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  49  86  53  87 /   0   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  59  91  60  91 /   0  10   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  54  85  57  86 /   0  20   0  10
Capulin.........................  46  74  48  76 /  30  30  30  10
Raton...........................  45  81  47  82 /  10  30  10  10
Springer........................  48  81  49  84 /  20  20  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  47  80  49  82 /   5  10   5   5
Clayton.........................  54  78  56  81 /  60  20  40   5
Roy.............................  52  79  52  81 /  30  10  20   5
Conchas.........................  58  86  58  88 /  30  10  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  56  85  57  88 /  20  10  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  58  84  58  87 /  40  20  30   0
Clovis..........................  61  87  61  90 /  30  20  30   0
Portales........................  60  89  60  91 /  30  30  30   0
Fort Sumner.....................  59  90  58  92 /  20  20  20   0
Roswell.........................  66  99  65 101 /   5  20   5   0
Picacho.........................  57  93  59  95 /   0  20   0   5
Elk.............................  55  94  58  94 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77