473
FXUS65 KABQ 172320 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 513 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture will continue to push into
  northern and central New Mexico through Friday, increasing the
  chances for showers and thunderstorms. This will introduce a
  risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially
  around urban areas, burn scars, and low water crossings today
  and Thursday.

- Water will begin to flow in normally dry arroyos, creeks,
  streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers that have dried up
  this summer. Dirt roads will become muddy, and large areas of
  standing water may form in low-lying areas.

- Isolated strong storms each afternoon and evening this week
  could produce strong outflow wind gusts, wet microbursts, and
  small hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The squeeze play remains underway. High pressure to our east and a
deep upper low over northern CA continue to draw subtropical
moisture northward into NM with an anomalously high PWAT
environment in place. This will lead to a couple more active days
of afternoon thunderstorms that will transition into nocturnal
stratiform rain.

Remnant rain and showers from last night will continue to exit the
northwestern and north central areas of NM, and through the mid to
late afternoon thunderstorms will initiate along the Continental
Divide and central mountain chain where sufficient surface based
CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will be found. Steering flow will veer to
more of a northeasterly heading today with cells speeding along at
20 to 25 mph. Training cells will remain a concern, as will the
potential for a few anchored updrafts on south slopes of the
higher terrain, and this will be combined with hefty rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. The Land Information Systems soil
moisture analysis indicates the ground is near saturation in many
of these broader Continental Divide locations with a few splotchy
areas also along the central mountain chain. This indicates those
areas are primed for easier flash flooding from isolated heavy
downpours through the early evening. Storms are projected to fill
in between the Divide and the central mountain chain early this
evening, and then gradually transition to more of a broad
stratiform batch of rain oriented north-south either side of the
Rio Grande. Rainfall rates will be at their heaviest during the
convection through the early evening, reducing considerably
through the overnight as more stratiform processes take over.
Still, many areas along and either side of the Rio Grande will be
susceptible to localized flash flooding, and the Flood Watch will
continue through early Friday morning.

The upper low lifts into eastern OR and western ID on Friday,
producing a bit more veering and strengthening in the winds aloft
over NM. This had been modeled to introduce drier air into AZ and
western NM, and while this is still the case, the surface
dewpoints and PWATs still look to sufficiently hang on for
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in far western NM
zones. There will also be some weak upward forcing provided by the
speed max aloft in association with the northwestern states low.
POPs have been nudged upward a bit in far western zones to account
for this, but the real focus still appears to be between the
Continental Divide and central mountain chain where PWATs will be
higher (1.0 to 1.3 inch). Storm motion would remain quick (15-25
mph) toward the northeast on Friday, but the introduction of more
speed shear could lead to more vigorous updrafts and stronger
cells Friday afternoon. Storms would fill into portions of the Rio
Grande valley once again late in the afternoon and early evening
Friday. With the slight veering in storm motion, cells would also
have a higher likelihood of moving into the eastern plains, albeit
with much less coverage than high terrain counterparts. Showers
and storms are modeled to undergo a significant reduction in
coverage through the late evening Friday, but south central to
southeastern areas may have scattered cells that survive into the
early morning hours Saturday as the right entrance region of the
speed max aloft arrives.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

The upper low will move into eastern ID and western WY on Saturday
with a speed max aloft (50-60 kt at 300 mb) still overlaying
eastern NM. This will introduce more dry air from the west which
will lower the overall heavy rainfall threat in western and most
of central NM, however an upper level trough axis will extend from
the ID/WY low into the Four Corners, providing additional large
scale ascent. This will still allow storms to develop over the
Divide, but they will be higher-based and not as efficient at
rainfall production. Deeper moisture and the speed max aloft of the
south central mountains and east central plains will help produce
more rain-efficient storms there Saturday afternoon.

The low will move farther east into the interface of the northern
Rockies and northern Great Plains on Sunday, filling in and
weakening. As a result, lighter and drier westerly winds aloft
will feed into NM, shutting down storm potential for most zones.
The exception will be a backdoor front that will enter
northeastern to east central NM, providing some low layer moisture
advection and surface convergence for a few isolated storms.

The front looks to make a stronger push Sunday night into Monday,
overtaking most of the eastern half of NM. Isolated to scattered
storms would be favored behind this boundary where moisture would
be more readily available Monday afternoon, and the coverage would
increase through the evening. Through this time, our attention
will also be drawn upstream toward a new Pacific low/trough that
will be crossing and lifting northeast of the lower CO river basin
while high pressure aloft settles near the TX coast. This will
once again squeeze and draw moisture northward into NM, merging
with what the backdoor boundary had already brought in from the
northeast. While there are model discrepancies on how exactly the
trough will evolve and move, there should be a southerly flow
aloft over NM, leading to a more active storm period Tuesday into
Wednesday of next week. Along with the significant uptick in
rainfall, a few strong to severe storms will be possible,
especially on Tuesday when directional shear appears more
favorable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms producing localized IFR/MVFR
conditions and gusty winds cover areas of northwestern, north-
central, and south-central NM this hour. This activity is expected
to shift eastward from KFMN-KGUP, and fill in a gap over the Rio
Grande Valley from KSKX southward to KSAF and KABQ this evening. A
secondary round of more numerous and widespread showers is also
expected to push northward up the Rio Grande Valley overnight
keeping rain going from KONM to KABQ northward to KSAF to about
KSKX well overnight into Friday morning. A brief break will arrive
to this area of central NM mid-to-late Friday morning before the
afternoon round of thunderstorms gets going mainly along and west
of the central mountain chain. These storms Friday afternoon will
track northeastward, spreading over the highlands and portions of
the eastern plains towards TX late Friday afternoon and evening.
Have including a VCTS at KROW for this late Friday afternoon.
Otherwise, abundant low level moisture will likely yield mist and
low ceilings over portions of the area tonight into Friday
morning, and amds may become necessary to address this.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A late, but active stretch of the monsoon will continue with
numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing today and Friday
before starting to reduce some on Saturday. Soil moisture products
indicate soaked grounds for many zones in western NM and a few in
central areas of the state, and this is likely where the most
beneficial fuel moisture has been received over the past few days.
In addition to the soaking rainfall, excellent humidity recovery
will continue tonight into Friday morning and again Friday night
into Saturday morning. Storm coverage and wetting rainfall
potential starts to decrease in western zones Saturday along with
the arrival of lower humidity. Drier air expands to most central
and some eastern zones on Sunday, putting the kibosh on storms and
lowering humidity more. Afternoon RH will fall to 15 to 25% in
many zones Sunday. However, moisture returns to eastern NM late
Sunday and more-so into Monday, reintroducing storm chances and
boosting humidity. Another wet and potentially active, stormy
pattern looks to unfold Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  79  53  80 /  50  60  40  20
Dulce...........................  46  73  41  77 /  90  70  50  20
Cuba............................  51  72  47  76 /  80  70  40  30
Gallup..........................  49  77  46  78 /  30  30  20  10
El Morro........................  49  74  45  75 /  40  70  30  20
Grants..........................  51  75  48  78 /  50  80  30  50
Quemado.........................  53  77  50  77 /  30  60  20  40
Magdalena.......................  57  75  53  76 /  70  80  50  60
Datil...........................  53  73  50  75 /  60  80  20  40
Reserve.........................  53  80  51  82 /  30  40  10  10
Glenwood........................  58  86  57  88 /  40  40  10   5
Chama...........................  48  68  43  71 /  90  70  50  30
Los Alamos......................  56  73  53  76 /  80  70  40  40
Pecos...........................  53  75  50  79 /  80  70  60  20
Cerro/Questa....................  52  71  48  74 /  80  60  50  20
Red River.......................  44  65  40  68 /  70  60  40  20
Angel Fire......................  39  69  35  72 /  60  60  30  20
Taos............................  49  74  45  77 /  80  60  50  20
Mora............................  50  75  48  78 /  70  50  40  20
Espanola........................  55  78  51  81 /  70  70  40  30
Santa Fe........................  56  74  54  77 /  80  80  50  20
Santa Fe Airport................  55  76  51  78 /  80  70  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  78  58  80 /  70  50  50  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  78  59  81 /  70  60  50  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  80  54  82 /  70  60  50  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  78  58  82 /  70  50  40  20
Belen...........................  60  81  55  83 /  70  60  50  40
Bernalillo......................  60  79  56  82 /  80  50  40  20
Bosque Farms....................  57  80  53  82 /  70  60  50  40
Corrales........................  60  79  57  82 /  70  50  40  20
Los Lunas.......................  59  80  56  82 /  70  60  50  40
Placitas........................  59  77  57  79 /  80  60  40  20
Rio Rancho......................  61  78  57  81 /  70  50  40  20
Socorro.........................  63  83  60  85 /  60  60  50  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  75  52  77 /  70  60  50  20
Tijeras.........................  58  76  54  78 /  70  60  50  20
Edgewood........................  54  76  50  79 /  60  60  50  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  78  48  81 /  60  60  60  20
Clines Corners..................  54  75  51  79 /  60  60  60  20
Mountainair.....................  56  77  52  79 /  50  60  50  20
Gran Quivira....................  57  77  53  80 /  50  60  50  20
Carrizozo.......................  61  81  59  83 /  40  50  50  20
Ruidoso.........................  54  76  53  80 /  50  70  60  50
Capulin.........................  54  79  50  80 /  20  30  20  20
Raton...........................  53  82  49  84 /  40  30  20  20
Springer........................  55  84  50  86 /  40  30  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  53  77  50  80 /  60  60  30  20
Clayton.........................  63  88  61  88 /   5   5  20  10
Roy.............................  59  82  55  84 /  20  30  30  20
Conchas.........................  64  90  62  91 /  10  40  40  20
Santa Rosa......................  63  86  60  87 /  20  60  50  20
Tucumcari.......................  66  91  63  91 /  10  20  40  20
Clovis..........................  64  90  63  89 /   5  10  40  30
Portales........................  66  92  65  92 /   5  10  50  40
Fort Sumner.....................  64  90  62  90 /  10  30  50  30
Roswell.........................  67  93  65  92 /  10  20  50  40
Picacho.........................  60  86  59  86 /  20  80  60  70
Elk.............................  58  83  58  84 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Friday for NMZ201>204-207-210>221-226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24