Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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113 FXUS65 KABQ 050859 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 159 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 159 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Near record to record high temperatures are expected in many areas through the end of the week. - Warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions will create elevated to critical fire weather concerns for portions of NM through the entire week, particularly this afternoon and Friday afternoon over eastern New Mexico. - Colder, more February like, temperatures return to far northeast NM Saturday and all of eastern NM Sunday behind a potent backdoor front continuing into next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 159 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 Near record to record warmth continues for much of northern and central NM today with high temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above normal. Slightly cooler across eastern NM Thursday behind a weak backdoor front before warming back up Friday. Dry and gusty west winds today and Friday will help promote the potential for rapid fire growth from any fire starts across eastern NM. A potent backdoor front begins to move into northeast NM Saturday surging through the rest of eastern NM Saturday night. Colder, especially across eastern NM, next week. Some low chances for snow across the northern mountains next Monday and Tuesday. Potential for freezing drizzle across northeast and east central NM on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 159 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 A Pacific dry air intrusion is being steered over the region by the jet stream, which is currently progressing/spreading east from the Desert SW/Great Basin toward the central and southern Rockies. Increasing winds throughout the column are forecast today and will result in windy conditions across the northeast quarter of NM, with breezy conditions elsewhere. Will hoist a Wind Advisory for the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos and Northeast Highlands for this afternoon, but it may need to be expanded further north and east. Strong downslope winds across eastern NM will boost high temperatures to 20-25 degrees above normal, easily beating record values at a number of locales. High temperatures will challenge daily records across western NM today, but not as slam-dunkish as across eastern NM. Winds aloft will trend down some Thursday, but a very dry and unusually warm airmass will persist across the area. Breezy conditions will result from daytime mixing Thursday afternoon, but not as windy as today. A weak backdoor cold front is forecast to nudge into far northeast NM Thursday and will help to keep a lid on high temperatures at locales such as Clayton. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 159 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 West winds ramp up again across the mountain ranges and eastern highlands and plains on Friday as the upper low off the Pacific NW coast finally opens up into a trough and moves inland over the northern Rockies. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible across the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and adjacent northeast and east central highlands. With the westerly downslope winds, locations across the eastern plains warm back up with temperatures similar to those today. Temperatures will be around 15 to 25 degrees above average areawide! Near critical to critical fire weather conditions will exist across the central mountain chain, adjacent highlands, and east central plains. Elevated fire weather conditions will exist across the rest of eastern NM and west central NM. This is due to several days of warm, dry and breezy to windy conditions. Mountain wave activity ramps up Friday night across the northern mountains as the trough axis moves through. Cross sections show potential for these waves to crash and bring 50 to 60 kt 700 mb winds to the surface across the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristo mountains and adjacent highlands. A transition to more February like weather begins Saturday. A backdoor front in the wake of the trough enters northeast NM late Saturday morning cooling temperatures down closer to early February averages. The rest of the forecast area will still be around 10 to 20 degrees above average with the warmest spot being Roswell still in the mid 80s! West winds will still be breezy across the higher terrain on Saturday with some elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across southern areas. The backdoor front across northeast NM surges south and west through the rest of eastern NM Saturday evening and night banking up along the east slopes of the central mountain chain come daybreak Sunday. Sunday will be much colder across eastern NM, especially compared to this week, with temperatures actually slightly below average! Western and central NM cool down a little, mainly due to lowering 500 mb heights, with highs around 5 to 10 degrees above average. Increasing clouds areawide Monday as a baggy trough moves across the desert southwest. The trough could have just enough mid and upper level moisture to generate a few snow showers across the northern mountains. A reinforcing backdoor front looks to move through eastern NM Monday night keeping the cold and below average temperatures in place for Tuesday. Upslope surface flow combined with added lift from another weak trough moving southeast from the Great Basin could allow some light precip to develop across the east slopes of the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands and plains. Freezing drizzle could be possible Tuesday morning based on forecast soundings showing saturated low levels below drier mid levels, surface temperatures below freezing, and supercooled water droplets due to the saturated layer only in the negative single digits. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025 Winds have tapered off nearly all areas this evening. Low level moisture producing IFR/LIFR ceilings has advanced to KLBB, and is expected to reach into east-central and southeastern NM tonight. KTCC and KROW will be on the northern and western edge of these low clouds and do not currently have IFR/LIFR ceilings in the TAF. Amds will be necessary here if the low clouds advance further than what is currently forecast. LLWS is also expected to commence shortly through areas along and west of the Continental Divide and areas along and east of the central mountain chain tonight. Otherwise, dry westerly winds return most areas Wednesday afternoon, starting over central and western areas before expanding to the eastern plains later in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 159 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are forecast today across the northeast quarter of the state as a Pacific dry air intrusion moves over the area and strong winds aloft mix to the surface. A very dry airmass will persist over the area Thursday, but with less wind and only elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. A resurgence of wind on Friday will bring a few hours of critical fire weather conditions, but mainly confined to the central/northeast highlands and potentially the east central plains. Pacific moisture will be steered over the region Sat/Sun, resulting in slightly higher humidity and an increase in cloud cover. A backdoor front will slide south into eastern NM on Saturday, bringing cooler conditions through Sunday. Cooler temperatures are forecast early next week as pressure heights come down with weak/broad troughing over the region. A stronger backdoor cold front may impact eastern NM next Tuesday with higher humidity and much colder temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 28 64 28 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 58 21 60 20 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 61 25 61 26 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 65 16 65 21 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 63 25 64 29 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 67 16 68 21 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 66 23 67 27 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 69 33 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 66 27 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 70 19 68 20 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 72 29 72 28 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 51 23 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 60 34 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 60 30 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 27 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 45 25 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 50 20 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 58 21 60 21 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 60 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 67 25 66 25 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 64 28 63 28 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 39 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 35 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 71 29 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 32 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 73 26 70 26 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 31 67 31 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 72 25 69 25 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 70 30 67 30 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 72 25 69 25 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 66 36 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 70 33 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 75 31 73 32 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 34 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 63 34 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 64 30 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 66 20 66 21 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 64 29 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 66 31 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 67 30 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 71 36 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 66 38 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 65 32 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 68 28 66 28 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 69 25 69 26 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 67 29 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 75 37 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 71 30 68 32 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 76 32 76 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 75 37 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 80 34 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 79 38 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 80 36 77 34 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 79 32 76 34 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 85 35 80 35 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 79 38 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 75 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-123-125-126. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ215-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...24