218
FXUS65 KABQ 101116 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
416 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 359 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

- West winds will strengthen along the east slopes of the central
  mountain chain and nearby high plains of eastern New Mexico
  Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 45 mph may impact areas from Clines
  Corners to Vaughn. Temperatures will also warm to within a few
  degrees of record highs across eastern New Mexico Tuesday
  afternoon.

- Southwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will return Friday over
  much of the region as a strong storm system approaches from the
  west.

- Confidence is increasing in cooler and unsettled weather this
  weekend. Valley rain and mountain snowfall looks to impact many
  areas on Saturday. Light snow accumulations will be possible
  across the mountains.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1256 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Quiet weather will continue today across the Land of Enchantment
after a chilly morning. Though most places will have a freeze this
morning, if not a hard freeze, high temperatures Monday afternoon
should warm as much as 15 degrees above yesterday`s readings. The
biggest warm up is expected across eastern NM but all areas will
be near to above normal. The upper air pattern will remain quite
amplified today, with a strong upper high across the Desert
Southwest and a deep upper low over the Great Lakes. On Tuesday,
this pattern will de-amplify. Nonetheless, ridging will remain
across the Southwest allowing temperatures to continue to climb.
H7 west to northwest winds around 25 to 35kt will result in weak
mountain wave activity along and east of the Sangre de Cristo and
East Mountains Tuesday morning. At the surface, a deepening lee
side trough will result in breezy to windy westerly winds across
portions of east central NM through Tuesday afternoon.
Downsloping will aid in the warming, and much of eastern NM will
be within 2-3 degrees of record highs for the date. The surface
low will slide southward during the late afternoon, and an
associated weak back door front will slide down the plains with it
through the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1256 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Weak ridging will be the rule over NM on Wednesday with continued
above normal temperatures. However, eastern NM will be cooler than
on Tuesday in the wake of the weak front. The east warms back up
to around 15 degrees above normal on Thursday.

All eyes are then on the weekend storm system. A deep Pacific
trough will move over California Thursday night, before shifting
southeastward and closing off into a low. The low is now expected
to track across SoCal or near Las Vegas Friday afternoon before
shifting eastward across the NM/MX border Saturday. This is a big
shift from previous deterministic and ensemble model runs as most
had a more progressive trough crossing NM with more wind and less
precipitation. Now with this slower closed low, precipitation
chances have been increased, and winds should not be as strong -
especially over the weekend. Friday should still be breezy to
windy as southwest flow aloft increases ahead of the system. Plus
a lee side surface trough will deepen, though surface pressure is
not as low as previous model runs by 6-8mb.

As it stands now, cooler temperatures will begin to arrive on
Friday, especially across western NM. A modest downslope component
across eastern NM should help offset the cold air advection.
Precipitation will develop over western NM Friday afternoon,
spreading eastward to the Central Mountain Chain, or thereabouts,
Friday night/early Saturday. As the low slowly shifts across the
NM/MX border Saturday, precipitation should become more focused
along and south of I-40. Snow levels will tumble, dropping to
between 6500-7000ft across western NM Friday night, and to near
7kft Saturday across central NM. High temperatures will be below
normal areawide on Saturday. Precipitation amounts do not look to
be very heavy attm, but some light snow accumulations across the
mountains appear likely. This is all very subject to change as we
often see these closed low systems slow down as models get a
better handle on them. Thus, the residence time over NM could be a
little longer with potentially more precip than currently
forecast. For now, Sunday looks to be mainly dry, but
temperatures still a few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Increasing
northwest winds early Tuesday morning will increase the threat for
mountain wave activity along and east of the Central Mountain
Chain. This will result in a low chance of low level wind shear at
KLVS Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Quiet and warmer conditions are on tap today after chilly
temperatures this morning. Elevated fire weather conditions are
expected on Tuesday across the central highlands where gusty
northwest winds up to 45 mph are on tap with RH values dropping
to near 20 percent. High temperatures will also be 10 to 15
degrees above normal across central and eastern NM. Mainly quiet
and warm weather is forecast for Wed and Thurs, but an approaching
storm system on Friday will increase southwest winds areawide. The
system will also bring an increase in moisture with it, so
elevated to near critical conditions are limited to eastern NM
Friday afternoon. The storm system will continue to cross NM
Friday night through the weekend, bringing valley rain and
mountain snow. Light snow accumulations are currently expected
across the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  31  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  64  20  64  20 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  62  29  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  66  22  68  25 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  65  29  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  68  24  70  25 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  67  32  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  63  37  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  64  34  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  72  26  75  28 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  74  28  78  32 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  61  25  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  59  37  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  63  34  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  60  32  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  53  28  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  59  18  61  18 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  63  24  65  25 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  64  34  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  66  27  70  29 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  60  35  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  61  30  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  39  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  35  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  32  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  36  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  64  27  70  30 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  66  35  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  64  26  69  30 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  66  34  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  64  28  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  62  38  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  64  36  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  67  33  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  34  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  59  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  62  30  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  64  23  68  26 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  59  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  59  33  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  59  32  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  61  35  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  60  37  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  63  35  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  66  29  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  66  28  75  29 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  64  35  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  66  43  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  62  32  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  67  32  80  36 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  67  39  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  66  35  79  35 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  64  37  80  39 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  65  36  81  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  64  31  80  34 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  66  34  82  41 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  67  37  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  68  34  76  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34