Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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419 FXUS65 KABQ 200120 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 720 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 715 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025 - Snowfall will continue tonight for areas along and east of the central mountains. Minor travel impacts are expected. Patches of dense fog and late season freezing temperatures will impact portions of central and eastern New Mexico early Sunday morning. - Warmer and drier weather returns early next week with the potential for a few thunderstorms across eastern NM from Tuesday through Friday, especially near the TX border. && .UPDATE... Issued at 715 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Snow has ended over most of the northern mts early this evening so the Winter Storm Warning has been cancelled. The bulk of the snow will move east along the I-40 corridor from near Tijeras to Clines Corners then Santa Rosa and Tucumcari later this evening. I-40 remains closed in both directions between Moriarty and Clines Corners. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 326 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025 A late season winter storm has brought April snow showers around the Land of Enchantment this morning and early afternoon. As the system makes its way east, snowfall will continue along the slopes of the central mountain chain as well as some rain and snow mix for eastern New Mexico tonight. Lows tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal, with a late season freeze for parts of the Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains. By Sunday the storm will be out of the region with sky clearing and temperatures warming up. Chances for rain and thunderstorms increase in the middle of the week for areas along the Texas-New Mexico border. The western half of the state will remain mostly dry and clear throughout the period. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 326 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025 A rambunctious upr low is making its way through western NM with a notable frontogenetical band of light to moderate precipitation tracking across the central parts of the CWA. Meanwhile a backdoor front continues to usher in a colder east-northeast low level flow. Based on the latest model guidance, expect rain/snow to expand and increase in intensity in the highlands east of the central mt chain. Opted to include the central highlands to the Winter Weather Adv as accumulations of one to three inches are forecast. The latest HREF probabilities suggest a 70% chance for exceeding two inches across the northern portions of this zone, with the most likely range for I-40 near KCQC from one or two inches. Inherited advisory for the northeast highlands remains on track; however, the higher snowfall accumulations will be favored west of the interstate. The greatest winter weather impacts will be felt in the nrn high terrain. Upper low will be over central NM around 00Z and this will allow activity to wane across western NM. Anticipate the back edge of pcpn to move from west to east this evening/overnight, ending in the RGV by 06Z and the far eastern plains by 13Z. Clearing skies are expected, and this will allow for maximum radiational cooling. For locations with notable precipitation and/or melting, expect areas of freezing fog to develop. The latest HREF depicts 30% to 60% probability for less than 1 mile vis in the northwest highlands as well as the northeast and central highlands. Eve shift will need to monitor this closely for the potential issuance of Freezing Fog Advisories. Meanwhile, a cold night is in store for many locations. Some locales have crept past the average last freeze, and as a result, have added the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Guadalupe and western/northern De Baca counties to the Freeze Warning. Timing of clearing skies will be critical - slower timing will result in warmer readings that could keep some sites above freezing. There was lower confidence for sub-freezing readings over the far eastern zones, but there is a 50% chance for criteria to be met along the Caprock. A much quieter, northwest flow pattern is expected across the Land of Enchantment for Sunday. Typical gusty winds favored at/near KCQC can be expected, but otherwise, expect high temps to rebound by 12 to 20 degrees but remain 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 326 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Weak zonal flow over the intermountain west will allow for warm and mostly calm conditions on Monday. Some high clouds will be streaming in from the west throughout the day for northern and central areas, but temperatures should still climb to around seasonal averages. Slightly stronger upper level southwest flow in northern New Mexico, along with a developing 1000mb sfc low in southeast colorado should aid in creating some breezy conditions during the afternoon for the northeast plains. For the rest of the week, this weak zonal pattern will prevail along with a couple of shallow embedded shortwaves. Increasing low level southerly flow will begin to advect some Gulf moisture up the Pecos River valley and into eastern New Mexico for the middle of the week. Guidance is hinting at a springtime dryline pattern developing each day from Tuesday through the end of the week, increasing chances for rain along the western extent of the dryline in the eastern plains. Model soundings indicate PWATs between 0.4 and 0.6 inches for eastern areas, as well as plenty of instability for thunderstorms to develop with forcing from the dryline. CSU ensemble severe probabilities are hinting at a 5 to 15 percent probability of severe hazard occurrence just along the Texas border for Wednesday and Thursday. A shallow shortwave crossing through the region on Thursday will aid in creating additional forcing and pull more moisture eastward. Bulk layer shear also looks to be much stronger on Thursday afternoon, with some model soundings showing over 45 kts of shear in eastern New Mexico, enough for severe storms to develop. The GFS in particularly wants to bring in an earlier backdoor front on Thursday evening, which could initiate storms farther east into the central mountains. Other models are less bullish on this backdoor front, with a weaker and later push. Overall, deeper moisture looks to remain in eastern areas of Friday and Saturday, with increased chances of rain. Meanwhile, the western half of New Mexico will remain dry and pleasant throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025 A potent spring storm centered near KABQ late this afternoon will move slowly east along the I-40 corridor tonight. A wide variety of hazards will continue to impact the airspace this evening with areas of rain, snow, patchy fog, thunderstorms, and blowing dust. A Center Weather Advisory currently covers IFR in the area from near KRTN to KLVS. A Convective SIGMET is also in place for the area between Fort Sumner, KTCC, and KCVS. These storms will move east/northeast thru 8pm and transition to rain and snow showers thru midnight. Elsewhere, gradual clearing will take place over northern and western NM this evening followed by potential fog development overnight. Clearing will then spread to all areas after sunrise Sunday with drier west/northwest winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 326 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The wetting precipitation event will come to end tonight with very high humidity recoveries expected. In fact, a few areas of freezing fog can be expected. Drier with below normal temps will prevail for Sunday. Zonal flow is expected Monday, with relatively weak leeside cyclogenesis supporting gusty winds over the northeast plains. Low- end critical fire weather could develop for a period of two to five hours. Thereafter, expect a sloshing back-and-forth of the dryline in eastern NM and this will be the focus for showers/storms east of this boundary through Wednesday. During this time, single digit RH values can be expected west of the central mountain chain but winds should remain in check to preclude critical fire weather conditions. Models are suggesting a healthy backdoor cold front pushing through eastern NM on Thursday which could migrate as far west as the Cont. Divide. This would set the stage for increased storm coverage along and east of the central mountains with a mixture of wet/dry cells - mainly along the Cont. Divide and RGV. This may result in new fire starts with limited wetting footprints, as least for Thursday and possibly into Friday as upr level shortwaves track across the area.&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 26 62 31 72 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 17 56 20 66 / 30 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 21 53 26 66 / 40 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 13 59 19 70 / 10 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 21 57 27 66 / 20 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 18 61 22 72 / 30 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 21 59 27 70 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 29 63 35 72 / 40 0 0 0 Datil........................... 26 59 30 70 / 30 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 18 67 26 76 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 25 72 32 80 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 17 51 21 58 / 40 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 29 56 34 63 / 50 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 26 56 31 64 / 70 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 23 53 28 61 / 50 0 0 0 Red River....................... 19 43 23 51 / 50 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 17 50 16 58 / 60 0 0 0 Taos............................ 19 56 23 65 / 50 0 0 0 Mora............................ 20 54 26 65 / 80 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 28 63 29 71 / 50 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 30 57 34 65 / 60 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 28 61 31 69 / 50 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 35 62 41 72 / 50 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 32 65 40 74 / 40 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 68 32 76 / 40 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 32 65 36 74 / 40 0 0 0 Belen........................... 28 69 32 78 / 40 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 31 65 35 75 / 40 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 27 68 30 76 / 40 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 32 66 35 75 / 40 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 29 68 33 76 / 40 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 31 62 37 70 / 50 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 32 65 35 74 / 40 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 33 71 39 81 / 40 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 27 56 33 66 / 50 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 28 59 34 68 / 50 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 24 59 28 69 / 60 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 20 60 21 70 / 60 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 24 56 29 66 / 80 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 25 59 30 70 / 60 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 25 60 31 70 / 60 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 31 64 38 74 / 40 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 30 59 36 69 / 40 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 23 55 29 67 / 50 5 0 0 Raton........................... 21 61 27 71 / 50 0 0 0 Springer........................ 23 62 26 72 / 50 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 23 58 27 69 / 80 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 32 64 35 75 / 60 10 0 0 Roy............................. 27 61 31 71 / 70 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 33 68 34 78 / 80 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 30 65 35 75 / 80 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 34 67 36 79 / 80 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 35 67 39 79 / 80 10 0 0 Portales........................ 34 68 37 79 / 80 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 32 69 35 78 / 80 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 40 75 42 85 / 40 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 34 71 38 81 / 40 0 0 0 Elk............................. 32 69 36 80 / 30 0 0 0 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 26 62 31 72 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 17 56 20 66 / 30 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 21 53 26 66 / 40 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 13 59 19 70 / 10 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 21 57 27 66 / 20 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 18 61 22 72 / 30 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 21 59 27 70 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 29 63 35 72 / 40 0 0 0 Datil........................... 26 59 30 70 / 30 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 18 67 26 76 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 25 72 32 80 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 17 51 21 58 / 40 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 29 56 34 63 / 50 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 26 56 31 64 / 70 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 23 53 28 61 / 50 0 0 0 Red River....................... 19 43 23 51 / 50 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 17 50 16 58 / 60 0 0 0 Taos............................ 19 56 23 65 / 50 0 0 0 Mora............................ 20 54 26 65 / 80 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 28 63 29 71 / 50 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 30 57 34 65 / 60 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 28 61 31 69 / 50 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 35 62 41 72 / 50 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 32 65 40 74 / 40 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 68 32 76 / 40 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 32 65 36 74 / 40 0 0 0 Belen........................... 28 69 32 78 / 40 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 31 65 35 75 / 40 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 27 68 30 76 / 40 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 32 66 35 75 / 40 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 29 68 33 76 / 40 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 31 62 37 70 / 50 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 32 65 35 74 / 40 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 33 71 39 81 / 40 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 27 56 33 66 / 50 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 28 59 34 68 / 50 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 24 59 28 69 / 60 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 20 60 21 70 / 60 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 24 56 29 66 / 80 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 25 59 30 70 / 60 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 25 60 31 70 / 60 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 31 64 38 74 / 40 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 30 59 36 69 / 40 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 23 55 29 67 / 50 5 0 0 Raton........................... 21 61 27 71 / 50 0 0 0 Springer........................ 23 62 26 72 / 50 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 23 58 27 69 / 80 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 32 64 35 75 / 60 10 0 0 Roy............................. 27 61 31 71 / 70 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 33 68 34 78 / 80 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 30 65 35 75 / 80 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 34 67 36 79 / 80 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 35 67 39 79 / 80 10 0 0 Portales........................ 34 68 37 79 / 80 5 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 32 69 35 78 / 80 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 40 75 42 85 / 40 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 34 71 38 81 / 40 0 0 0 Elk............................. 32 69 36 80 / 30 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ219-220-233- 237. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ221- 223-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...42 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.