Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
007 FXUS65 KABQ 011143 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 543 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - The monsoon moisture plume will remain over the area through Friday with locally heavy rainfall resulting in a flash flood risk, especially around burn scars, urban areas, locales with saturated ground, and poorly drained areas. - Severe thunderstorms will favor the northeast quadrant of New Mexico on Friday and Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards. - Daytime temperatures will increase for the early to middle portion of next week. There is high confidence in widespread moderate to locally major heat risk impacts, particularly for individuals without adequate cooling and hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1138 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Nocturnal convection persists in the northeast and east central plains as a weak shortwave rotates around the upper level ridge. Latest CAMs suggest this activity will slowly migrate southeast through around 16Z. Heavy rainfall continues to be a concern but the intensity should wane prior to sunrise. The 598dam 500hPa high will be positioned over southeast AZ and southwest NM, with PWATs ranging from 0.75 to 1.25 inch from the Four Corners area to the southeast plains, which is pretty close to climatological norms. Convection will re-erupt per usual over the high terrain by early afternoon. A burn scar flash flood risk appears to start around 19Z near the Ruidoso area. Meanwhile, a shortwave tracking through the northern and central Rockies will enhance storm potential across the northern mountains of NM and eventually for the northeast and east central plains. 0-6km bulk shear coupled with MUCAPE values of 750-1250 J/kg should support more robust and longer-lived updrafts. Moderate to steep lapse rates will support large hail and damaging wind gusts (>60 mph). Activity is likely to congeal into a broken or solid line during the early evening, then diminish over the east-central/southeast zones between 06-09Z/Sat. Meanwhile, convection over the mountain areas should wane shortly after sunset. Heavy rainfall potential will pose a repeat risk for flash flooding near all burn scars. Additionally, wet antecedent conditions due to multiple recent events will elevate the flash flood risk in the Sangre de Cristo Mts east into the northeast/east central plains. As a result, a new Flood Watch will be hoisted for these locales as well as the southwest mountains and San Augustine Plains. The upr high remains positioned to our southwest on Saturday as much drier air starts to advect into NM from the northwest. PWATs will take a 0.25 inch shave over the entire CWA. Overall, storm coverage will be reduced, but there will remain an elevated risk across the northeast plains as yet another shortwave on the nrn periphery of the ridge skirts the region. Instability and shear parameters appear similar if not a tad higher which will support another threat for strong to severe storms, albeit a tad further east compared to Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1138 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Substantial PWAT suffocation is projected for Sunday as a large slug of dry air invades New Mexico. PWATs drop below 0.20 inch across the Four Corners region with 0.50-0.75 inch holding tough over the far eastern plains. The GFS suggests only 0.34 inch for ABQ which would place it between a record low value and the 10th percentile. As a result of a drier airmass and less cloud cover and storms, readings should climb 2-7F compared to Sat. The NBM indicates a 78% chance of 100F at the Sunport, 87% at Socorro and 97% at Roswell. In fact, a Heat Advisory may be needed for Chaves County with a 54% chance this zone reaches 105F. The monsoon high will park itself directly over central or south central NM and strengthen to near 600dam at 500hPa. This could be a near record for 00Z/Tues. This significant lid on the atmosphere coupled with a lack of moisture will continue to support very hot temperatures and neglible tstorm chances. Expect greater coverage of moderate heat risk for western and southern NM as a result. For the remainder of the mid-week, the upr high will continue to wobble while maintaining its strength. Strong moisture advection from northwest Mexico is projected along the western periphery of the high. This will bring notably higher PWATs into AZ, and this could eventually seep into portions of western NM and towards the northern parts of the state. Low chances for storms return to the forecast as a result, but it comes with marginal confidence given the strength of the monsoon high. Widespread moderate heat risk is forecast for Tuesday-Thursday with the major category favoring the RGV as well as parts of east central and southeast NM. This happened to be a very hot week in 2023, thus most areas may fall just shy of record territory. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 A line of convection continues to drift southeast and will impact the east central plains of NM through 14Z, mainly along/east of a line from KCVN to eastern Chaves Co. Another round of showers and storms will develop by early afternoon over the high terrain, then gradually migrate towards the east-southeast. Expect mountain top obscurations in heavier pcpn along with a threat for gusty/erratic outflows. Meanwhile, a more organized threat for strong to severe storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts will be favored in northeast/east central NM this afternoon and early evening. Expect storms to persist across the ern plains through 06-09Z/Sat. There is a low chance for an organized outflow boundary to push its way through the central mountain chain, potentially supporting canyon breezes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1138 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected throughout the forecast period; however, a significant fuel drying pattern should materialize for the upcoming week. A typical wet monsoon pattern will continue for today but notably drier air will invade the state starting Saturday and particularly on Sunday. Minimum RH values are forecast to drop into the single digits for a period of 8 to 13 hours on Sunday over northwest NM, and 10 to 16 hours on Monday. RFTI indicates elevated fire weather conditions in the northwest for Sunday, with a large aspect of wrn and central NM included for Monday, with the RH component serving as the primary driver. Meanwhile, expect very poor-fair overnight RH recoveries for locations west of the central mountain chain. Moisture advection is expected along the western periphery of the very strong upper high for the middle portion of the week. Much of this will impact AZ with some advection possible in western NM and potentially into the northern mountains. Unfortunately, this will likely setup a pattern of wet and dry thunderstorms with limited wetting footprints coupled with gusty/erratic outflow winds. Fresh lightning-induced fires could be a concern until a more substantial wet monsoon pattern develops. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 92 65 95 59 / 5 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 87 48 89 46 / 40 10 10 0 Cuba............................ 86 57 89 55 / 40 20 10 5 Gallup.......................... 89 53 91 51 / 20 20 0 0 El Morro........................ 84 55 86 55 / 50 20 10 0 Grants.......................... 87 56 90 55 / 50 20 10 5 Quemado......................... 85 58 87 57 / 60 30 20 5 Magdalena....................... 83 62 86 63 / 50 20 20 10 Datil........................... 81 56 84 58 / 60 30 30 10 Reserve......................... 90 55 92 54 / 70 30 20 5 Glenwood........................ 94 61 97 60 / 70 30 20 5 Chama........................... 80 49 81 48 / 60 20 20 5 Los Alamos...................... 81 59 84 60 / 50 30 20 5 Pecos........................... 81 55 84 56 / 60 40 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 53 82 53 / 70 30 30 10 Red River....................... 71 45 73 45 / 70 30 40 10 Angel Fire...................... 74 40 76 40 / 70 30 40 5 Taos............................ 82 52 85 51 / 60 30 20 5 Mora............................ 78 50 81 51 / 70 40 30 10 Espanola........................ 88 58 90 58 / 40 30 10 5 Santa Fe........................ 83 60 86 60 / 50 30 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 57 89 58 / 40 30 5 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 68 92 68 / 40 30 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 65 94 66 / 30 30 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 65 97 65 / 30 20 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 91 66 94 66 / 30 30 5 5 Belen........................... 92 63 96 63 / 30 20 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 91 64 94 64 / 30 30 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 92 63 95 62 / 30 20 0 5 Corrales........................ 92 65 96 66 / 30 30 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 92 64 95 63 / 30 20 0 5 Placitas........................ 88 63 91 64 / 40 30 5 10 Rio Rancho...................... 91 65 94 66 / 30 30 5 5 Socorro......................... 93 66 97 67 / 30 20 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 83 58 86 59 / 40 30 10 10 Tijeras......................... 84 60 87 61 / 40 30 10 10 Edgewood........................ 83 55 88 56 / 40 30 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 85 53 89 55 / 40 30 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 78 55 84 57 / 50 30 5 5 Mountainair..................... 83 57 87 59 / 40 20 10 10 Gran Quivira.................... 82 57 86 60 / 40 20 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 86 63 89 66 / 40 20 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 77 57 81 60 / 60 10 20 5 Capulin......................... 77 51 82 52 / 60 50 30 30 Raton........................... 81 50 86 50 / 70 40 30 10 Springer........................ 83 52 88 52 / 60 40 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 79 52 84 54 / 60 40 20 10 Clayton......................... 81 58 87 58 / 30 40 10 30 Roy............................. 79 55 85 56 / 40 50 10 20 Conchas......................... 87 61 94 63 / 30 50 5 20 Santa Rosa...................... 85 59 92 61 / 30 40 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 83 60 92 62 / 20 30 5 20 Clovis.......................... 88 64 94 67 / 20 30 5 20 Portales........................ 89 64 96 68 / 20 30 5 20 Fort Sumner..................... 88 63 94 66 / 20 30 0 10 Roswell......................... 93 69 98 71 / 20 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 85 61 91 64 / 40 10 5 0 Elk............................. 83 58 87 62 / 50 10 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214- 215-227>234. Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ208- 226-241. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...46