994
FXUS65 KABQ 051737 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1137 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1136 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop today,
  Friday, and Saturday across the eastern plains, with large hail
  and damaging wind gusts the main threats.

- Showers and storms will continue to favor eastern New Mexico
  through the late weekend before expanding to central areas of
  the state Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Heavy
  rainfall will be possible in isolated areas with a risk of
  localized flash flooding over recent wildfire burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 141 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Areas of fog and low clouds will continue over eastern areas until
mid morning. Drier air will then filter over the forecast area
today through end week as the upper level trough over the western
US weakens and a low amplitude ridge of high pressure gradually
builds over the southern Rockies. Scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms will mostly be relegated to locations east of
the central mountain chain during the afternoon and evening today
and Friday, and to locations north of a line from Gallup to Taos
this afternoon. The storm track will remain active over the
northern and central Rockies today and Friday, and there will be a
modest subtropical jetstream over NM both days. This will set the
eastern plains up for a high CAPE and high bulk shear environment
with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms both days. High
temperatures will trend warmer both days, too. High temperatures
will reach a few to eight degrees above 30-year averages over
south central and southwest areas by Friday afternoon, while
remaining near to around 6 degrees below average farther north and
east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Winds aloft will relax into Saturday with a weak ridge building
over the Intermountain west. Speeds between 700-500 mb should
generally reduce to a 15-25 kt range with slightly higher speeds
possible in northeastern zones as this area will remain closer to
the confluence of the polar and subtropical jet segments. Some
mid level to boundary layer drying would occur, and forecast
models project Saturday as being the most inactive day for storms
over the next week. The eastern tier of the plains would still be
fair game for isolated strong to severe cells with the highlands
and northeastern plains being the prime candidates. Seasonable
temperatures would prevail with gains of a degree or two in most
locations Saturday afternoon.

The NAM is zealous about boundary layer moisture pushing westward
beyond the Rio Grande Saturday night into Sunday morning, but the
GFS and ECMWF are not as enthused with a weak surface boundary
from the north disrupting the westward push. This boundary acts as
a mechanism for storm development due to moisture/surface
convergence over northeastern to east central NM, and blended
guidance captures this well. However, a farther west push of
moisture early in the morning, like the NAM suggests, would
expand POPs farther west into the afternoon.

The aforementioned boundary will get a second push from convective
cold pools Sunday night into Monday morning, setting the stage for
a much more pronounced moisture intrusion into central NM. This
will yield a better crop of storms Monday afternoon, and while
the upper ridge will remain parked over the Intermountain west,
the easterly component to the surface flow contrasted by west
northwesterly flow aloft could still produce some sufficient
directional shear for a few strong storms. The atmosphere over NM
will essentially rinse and repeat into Tuesday and Wednesday with
afternoon and evening convection helping to push moisture westward
overnight. The western fringe of storms each day next week would
tend to be on the drier side with less efficient rainfall
production and a tendency for virga, roughly between the
Continental Divide and the Rio Grande. Areas east of the Rio
Grande would have broader wetting footprints.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions are slowly eroding across eastern NM as of
17z, which will give way to VFR conditions across the state through
the rest of the afternoon and evening. Scant showers are moving over
northwest NM near KFMN, and may produce a gusty outflow wind or two
through 20z. Additional virga showers may develop over western NM
through the afternoon, producing localized gusty outflow winds. The
larger story is afternoon and evening development of strong to
severe thunderstorms across eastern NM. Confidence in these storms
affecting any one TAF site is low, but any storm that matures will
be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Later tonight, a
backdoor front pushes into northeast NM, and accompanying it is
likely to be another batch of low clouds. Confidence was not high
enough to put MVFR to IFR conditions in northeast TAF sites (KLVS,
KTCC), but those conditions may be sporadic across northeast NM
through the overnight hours around KCAO and KRTN, even seeping
closer to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the Interstate 40
corridor.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Warmer conditions are forecast today through Saturday with
decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms each day as drier
air moves in from the southwest. There will probably be some gusty
virga showers and dry thunderstorms from around Gallup to around
Cuba this afternoon as the moisture retreats northward and eastward.
A cutoff low pressure system off the CA coast is forecast to open
into a trough and cross the southern Rockies early in the coming
week while a low pressure system carving its way through the upper
Great Plains sends a moist backdoor front into NM with increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the central
mountain chain Sunday, as far west as the Continental Divide Monday,
then all of the way to the AZ border Tuesday and Wednesday.  The
western fringe of the moisture will probably feature gusty virga
showers and dry thunderstorms each day with a better chance of
wetting precip along and east of the central mountain chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  78  51  84  52 /  40   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  73  39  78  40 /  40  10   0   0
Cuba............................  75  48  80  49 /  10   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  78  41  83  41 /  10   0   0   0
El Morro........................  76  47  80  46 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  79  45  85  45 /  10   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  80  48  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  83  55  87  56 /   5   0   5   0
Datil...........................  81  50  84  49 /   0   0   5   0
Reserve.........................  86  45  90  44 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  90  51  93  51 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  67  39  73  41 /  40   5   5   0
Los Alamos......................  74  54  79  56 /  10   0   5   0
Pecos...........................  75  51  80  52 /  10   0  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  71  46  76  47 /  20   5  10   5
Red River.......................  62  39  67  40 /  20   5  20   5
Angel Fire......................  68  36  72  32 /  20   5  20   5
Taos............................  75  43  79  45 /  10   5   5   0
Mora............................  74  44  78  46 /  20  10  20   5
Espanola........................  81  51  86  52 /  10   0   5   0
Santa Fe........................  76  54  80  55 /  10   0   5   5
Santa Fe Airport................  80  51  84  53 /  10   0   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  84  61  88  61 /   5   0   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  59  90  60 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  57  93  56 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  59  90  59 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  89  54  93  55 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  86  57  91  58 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  88  53  92  54 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  87  58  92  58 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  88  55  92  56 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  82  59  86  59 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  86  59  90  59 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  93  60  97  61 /   5   0   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  54  83  54 /   5   0   5   0
Tijeras.........................  80  55  85  55 /   5   0   5   0
Edgewood........................  80  50  84  51 /   5   0   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  82  46  86  47 /   5   0   5   5
Clines Corners..................  76  49  80  51 /  10   0  10   5
Mountainair.....................  82  51  85  51 /   5   0   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  82  50  85  52 /   0   0  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  86  59  90  60 /   0   0  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  81  56  85  53 /   5   0  20   5
Capulin.........................  73  46  73  48 /  30  30  30  30
Raton...........................  78  46  80  48 /  30  10  20  10
Springer........................  79  48  80  50 /  20  20  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  76  48  80  49 /  20  10  10  10
Clayton.........................  78  54  78  56 /  20  50  20  40
Roy.............................  77  52  79  53 /  20  20  10  20
Conchas.........................  85  59  86  59 /  30  30  10  30
Santa Rosa......................  83  56  87  57 /  20  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  83  59  85  59 /  30  40  20  40
Clovis..........................  82  61  88  61 /  60  40  20  40
Portales........................  84  59  90  60 /  60  40  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  87  59  91  59 /  40  20  20  20
Roswell.........................  94  65  98  65 /  30  10  20  10
Picacho.........................  91  58  93  60 /  20   5  20   5
Elk.............................  90  56  94  58 /  10   0  30   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...77