Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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392 FXUS65 KABQ 171118 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 518 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 455 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 - Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather today through Monday. Winds will be strongest Sunday and Monday when gusts of 35 to 50 mph will be common, leading to an increased risk of rapid fire spread. - Scattered rain and high mountain snow showers will develop over northwestern to north central New Mexico Sunday and Monday with a few thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and early evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 A weak upper-low over Baja California will eject into AZ this morning, eventually moving over central NM by the afternoon. This will help to increase wind speeds, mainly over the southern portion of the forecast area. Winds will mainly be a concern for fire weather although enhancement via virga showers may create locally stronger winds that pick up dust at times. Hi-res models are picking up on Lincoln and Torrence counties as the most likely areas to experience a virga shower so a mention of sprinkles was added to the forecast in these areas. While very unlikely, the there is a non- zero risk of a stray lightning strike or two in these same areas thanks to just enough mid-level cold air underneath the upper-low to allow for some slightly deeper convection to develop. Winds trend down Saturday evening, although mountain areas and mesas will continue to remain breezy (winds of 10 to 20 mph) through the overnight. The next storm system will quickly take shape to the west tonight as a N/S oriented jet streak forces and upper-low to dig into the Great Basin. The jet streak will round the base of the trough and push into New Mexico by Sunday afternoon, creating widespread gusty conditions. Wind speeds have trended up recently and NAEFs mean winds are now showing speeds above the 90th percentile across the entire forecast area, with winds approaching the 90th percentile in the south-central mtns near Ruidoso. As a result, some blowing dust will likely get lofted, including from White Sands given the southwesterly wind direction. Showers and even a few storms will focus across far northwestern NM on Sunday afternoon, although precipitation amounts will generally be below 0.1". && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 Another unseasonably cold 549dm H5 low and associated 110kt polar jet will enter the Great Basin from the PacNW Sunday night. This speed max is modeled to cross northern NM Monday with a potent Pacific cold front. The recent NAEFS has H5 heights and H7 temps near -2 standard deviation below climo which translates to a chilly day for mid to late May. Max temps will be roughly 10 to 15F below normal across northern, central, and western NM with blustery winds, increasing cloud cover, and perhaps a few showers and storms across northern NM. Latest MOS guidance trended stronger with wind speeds and a couple Wind Advisories may be warranted with gusts >50 mph favored from near Clines Corners south to Corona and Ruidoso. The latest NBM even shows probabilities for sustained winds >30 mph in the 30 to 50% range for this area. The rest of next week will feature a strong warming trend with the warmest temps so far this spring for the entire region by Friday. Surface winds will be a tad breezy again beginning Wednesday with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range each afternoon. Eastern NM will likely see several easterly wind shifts with low level moisture sloshing westward each morning. Otherwise, an overall tranquil pattern is in store with increasing heat risk across Chaves County where highs may reach 100F for the 1st time this year by late week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue to prevail through the TAF period. Breezy southwest winds will prevail around the region today, with the strongest wind gusts (25 to 35KT) along and east of the central mountain chain. There is a low chance (10-20%) that BLDU associated with gusty southwest winds creates MVFR visibility reductions at KROW this afternoon, but vis restrictions are unlikely elsewhere. A few gusty virga showers may develop in central and east-central NM this afternoon, with localized strong winds the main concern. Winds will decrease at most terminals after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... Critical fire weather conditions today will focus in south-central New Mexico where up to 10 hours of single digit relative humidity will aid with the drying of fuels. The winds are marginal for rapid fire spread, however a few gusty virga showers could bring wind gusts as high as 50 mph down to the surface briefly. There is a very low chance (<10%) of a stray lightning strike or two in south- central and east-central NM with this isolated convective activity. Sunday will be windier than today and forecast wind speeds have continued to trend higher. The strongest gusts (40 to 55 mph) will focus for areas along and just east of the central mountain chain, although winds will still be strong enough for the development of critical fire weather in southwest and central NM. Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for all areas and no additional expansions where made since fuel status remains unfavorable for rapid fire spread in the eastern and northeast plains. Showers and a few storms will focus over areas along and north of I-40 on Monday, however humidities will struggle to increase much in south-central NM where another round of critical fire weather conditions may develop Monday afternoon. Winds decrease and temperatures trend higher mid to late next week. Critical fire weather conditions are not likely Tuesday through next Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 78 48 64 39 / 0 5 40 20 Dulce........................... 72 38 59 28 / 0 5 40 20 Cuba............................ 72 41 62 35 / 0 0 10 10 Gallup.......................... 74 36 62 32 / 0 0 10 20 El Morro........................ 71 37 61 35 / 0 0 5 10 Grants.......................... 75 36 65 34 / 0 0 0 5 Quemado......................... 72 38 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 75 46 72 42 / 10 0 0 0 Datil........................... 71 38 68 38 / 5 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 74 37 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 80 39 75 38 / 5 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 35 53 27 / 0 0 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 72 47 64 40 / 0 0 5 5 Pecos........................... 71 43 67 41 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 39 61 35 / 0 0 5 0 Red River....................... 59 34 54 28 / 0 0 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 30 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 73 37 63 32 / 0 0 5 0 Mora............................ 70 39 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 78 45 70 41 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 72 45 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 76 44 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 53 73 50 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 50 76 47 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 48 78 46 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 50 75 47 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 83 45 80 45 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 81 50 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 82 44 79 43 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 81 49 75 46 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 82 45 79 45 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 78 51 73 47 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 80 51 75 47 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 84 48 83 48 / 10 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 46 68 41 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 75 47 71 43 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 75 44 72 39 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 38 74 37 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 72 41 69 39 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 73 44 73 41 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 74 42 74 41 / 10 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 78 51 76 48 / 10 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 71 47 69 46 / 10 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 73 42 70 39 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 77 41 73 38 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 79 41 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 74 43 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 80 48 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 78 46 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 86 49 84 48 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 82 48 81 47 / 10 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 86 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 85 53 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 87 50 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 85 49 85 49 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 92 56 91 55 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 83 50 81 50 / 5 0 0 0 Elk............................. 79 50 77 50 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ106-124. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ106-109- 124-125. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...16