Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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861 FXUS65 KABQ 270536 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1136 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026 - Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. - Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026 A remnant MCV is drifting north across Grants, NM this afternoon with radar showing storms blossoming on the outer periphery of the circulation. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows a broad upper level high centered near southern CO with a large, dry upper level airmass spreading across southern and eastern NM. The 18Z PWAT at KABQ was down to 1.15", H5 temps warmed to near -3C, and steering flow veered more southerly. 12Z guidance is in good agreement now that today and tonight will feature less storm coverage than recent days. The focus will remain over northern and western NM with slow and erratic storm motions. There is still a moderate to high chance of flash flooding over western NM from any stronger cells given the recent stretch of heavy rainfall. The 12Z suite of QPF guidance also shows cells with smaller footprints between 0.50 and 1.50". Low temps tonight will be warm again with lots of 60s and 70s. The H5 high center will drift southward into northern NM Monday with little change to storm coverage. PWATs will remain >1" areawide with typical terrain-driven storms producing locally heavy rainfall over western and northern NM. A convective cluster over eastern CO on the NAM12 Monday evening looks to force a large convective outflow into northeast NM late Monday night. This may become a player for storms on Tuesday. Meanwhile, max temps Monday will trend hotter for the entire area and several zones now have a Heat Advisory, including the ABQ metro. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Tuesday appears to be the next uptick in storm coverage, especially northeast NM where a remnant convective outflow boundary may become draped along the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Confidence is only moderate since the only noteworthy change is the surface boundary. H5 temps remain close to -3C with the 597dm high center near northern NM. PWATs will remain >1" so locally heavy rainfall is likely wherever cells do form. It will stay hot as well with more Heat Advisories likely for a few zones Tuesday. For Wednesday thru Saturday, the upper level high center continues drifting west across northern NM with a slight decrease in forecast PWATs noted at KABQ. Otherwise, it will remain hot with an extended period of Heat Advisories for at least a few zones each day. Storm coverage will vary from day to day with slight changes in steering flow across the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026 An outflow boundary moving into NE NM will trigger a few showers and thunderstorms for the next 1-3 hours. Elsewhere, storms will continue to diminish over the next hour. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will favor the high terrain Monday afternoon, but coverage should be slightly less than on Sunday. A few storms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and brief IFR vsbys, but confidence is low that any will directly impact a TAF site attm. Gusty winds will also be possible with the stronger storms. Storms will diminish around or shortly after 06Z Tue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 134 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026 There are no critical fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future. Patchy dry fuels across the region may still lead to new fire starts from lightning strikes. A strong monsoon high will meander west over northern NM this week and allow temperatures to trend hotter areawide. The focus for locally heavy rainfall will be over the northern and western high terrain. Small rainfall footprints of 1 to 2" may create flash flooding, especially near burn scars. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 68 98 69 100 / 20 0 5 5 Dulce........................... 55 95 58 97 / 30 10 10 20 Cuba............................ 61 93 63 94 / 20 10 10 10 Gallup.......................... 61 91 62 92 / 20 10 20 20 El Morro........................ 59 87 60 89 / 20 20 20 40 Grants.......................... 62 92 63 93 / 20 30 20 30 Quemado......................... 61 88 62 89 / 20 10 20 50 Magdalena....................... 66 91 67 92 / 20 30 20 30 Datil........................... 62 87 62 88 / 20 30 20 50 Reserve......................... 59 94 61 95 / 20 30 20 50 Glenwood........................ 63 99 65 100 / 20 20 20 60 Chama........................... 54 88 56 88 / 20 20 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 68 93 68 92 / 20 20 20 50 Pecos........................... 62 94 63 92 / 20 20 20 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 60 91 59 89 / 40 30 30 40 Red River....................... 53 81 52 79 / 40 50 40 70 Angel Fire...................... 52 86 51 84 / 20 40 30 70 Taos............................ 60 94 61 92 / 20 20 20 40 Mora............................ 59 91 60 88 / 20 30 30 70 Espanola........................ 68 100 69 98 / 20 10 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 67 94 67 92 / 20 10 20 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 65 97 66 96 / 20 10 20 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 99 73 99 / 20 0 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 100 72 100 / 20 0 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 103 71 102 / 20 5 20 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 71 100 73 100 / 20 0 20 20 Belen........................... 69 102 72 102 / 20 5 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 70 102 72 101 / 20 0 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 67 102 70 101 / 20 5 20 20 Corrales........................ 71 102 72 102 / 20 0 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 69 102 71 101 / 20 5 20 20 Placitas........................ 70 97 70 97 / 20 0 20 30 Rio Rancho...................... 70 100 72 101 / 20 0 20 20 Socorro......................... 73 103 75 103 / 20 10 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 66 95 66 94 / 20 5 20 50 Tijeras......................... 66 95 67 94 / 20 0 20 50 Edgewood........................ 62 97 64 96 / 20 5 20 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 98 62 96 / 20 5 20 40 Clines Corners.................. 62 92 64 91 / 20 10 20 50 Mountainair..................... 62 96 64 95 / 20 5 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 64 94 65 94 / 20 0 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 70 98 72 98 / 10 0 10 30 Ruidoso......................... 65 91 67 91 / 10 20 10 30 Capulin......................... 61 94 60 89 / 20 20 40 70 Raton........................... 60 99 61 94 / 20 20 30 60 Springer........................ 62 101 63 96 / 20 20 30 40 Las Vegas....................... 61 94 62 91 / 20 20 20 50 Clayton......................... 70 104 70 98 / 10 20 20 20 Roy............................. 66 98 67 94 / 20 10 20 30 Conchas......................... 71 105 71 102 / 20 0 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 68 102 69 99 / 10 0 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 73 107 73 104 / 10 0 10 20 Clovis.......................... 70 104 71 104 / 0 0 5 0 Portales........................ 71 105 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 71 104 72 104 / 10 0 5 0 Roswell......................... 74 106 75 106 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 69 101 70 100 / 0 5 5 5 Elk............................. 65 98 67 98 / 5 20 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Monday for NMZ217-219-221- 228-230>232-234>238. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...34