334
FXUS65 KABQ 181829 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1229 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

- Warm and windy conditions with high fire danger return to much
  of central and eastern NM today, with more blowing dust possible
  across south central and southeast areas.

- Colder with precipitation chances favoring western and northern
  areas late today through Saturday evening as a storm system
  moves across the state. Moderate travel impacts are likely in
  the northern mountains. Late season freezing temperatures may
  impact portions of central and eastern New Mexico late Saturday
  night into Sunday morning.

- Warmer and drier weather returns early next week with the
  potential for a few thunderstorms near the TX border.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1210 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

The cold front across northeastern NM is receding slower than
expected so updated the wind forecast to keep east/northeast winds
around in the northeast corner of the state longer as well as
increase humidities in that area. Winds should still switch around
to the southwest in locations such as Tucumcari and Clovis this
afternoon. This will limit the number of hours of critical fire
weather conditions in those areas as well as the northernmost
extent of critical fire weather. That being said, decided to keep
the Red Flag Warning as is given that portions of the eastern
plains and northeast plains zones still have high fire danger
today.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

A warm and windy regime will continue today, with the strongest
winds and areas of blowing dust forecast across south central and
southeast NM. A storm system will bring precipitation to
northwest NM today, then spread across much of the area tonight
through Saturday. This system will bring significant late season
snowfall to the high terrain, with mostly rain at valley
locations. High temperatures on Saturday will be well below
average for mid April. A warming and drying trend will begin
Sunday and continue into the middle of next week, with
temperatures rising back above average. A few thunderstorms are
possible near the TX border from Tuesday through Thursday of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

An upper level low pressure system will continue to steer a strong
subtropical jet stream over the southeast third of the forecast area
today.  Meanwhile, a surface low over northeast NM looks to bottom
out around 998 mb this afternoon.  As a result, southwest winds will
become strong again along and south of a line from Carrizozo to
Clovis, where a Wind Advisory has been expanded in coverage and time
for today.  There is a 20 percent chance of 60 mph wind gusts in the
south central mountains this afternoon, but gusts that strong are
expected to be very localized at this time.

The upper level low pressure system will drop southward over western
UT today, then southeastward across AZ tonight, and eastward across
NM on Saturday. The upper low will draw a strong backdoor cold
front southwestward through the eastern areas this evening, then
through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east
canyon wind late tonight and Saturday morning. A gusty Pacific
cold front will also plow through western areas tonight. The storm
system will spread rain and snow showers over western and
northern areas today and tonight, then over the remainder of the
forecast area on Saturday. There will also be isolated
thunderstorms in the mix today and Saturday. The temperature at
700 mb looks to bottom out around -4 to -8 C late tonight and
Saturday morning, which should drop the snow level to valley
bottoms across western and northern areas, as well as the central
highlands. Several inches of snow accumulation are expected in the
northern mountains above 7500 feet with a few inches as low as
6500 feet over northern and western areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

The track of the upper low has trended further south compared to
the last few forecast cycles and is now modeled to move south of
Albuquerque on Saturday night. This track is favorable for the
middle RGV to receive a solid and much needed wetting rain with
amounts averaging one quarter inch. Rain may mix with or turn over
to snow in the ABQ Metro Saturday night, but is expected to be
wet with temperatures at or slightly above freezing. Meaning, no
winter weather impacts are expected in the ABQ Metro. Impacts a
little higher up in Santa Fe will be short lived, with snow
amounts around half an inch. Higher up in the northern mountains,
storm total amounts will generally range from 5 to 10 inches, with
over 1 foot possible across the peaks. Have upgraded the watch to
a warning for the northern mountains, but went with an advisory
in the Chuska Mountains where storm total amounts will range from
4 to 8 inches. The upper low will bring a round of showers with
isolated thunder to portions of the eastern plains late Saturday
night before ejecting out over the TX Panhandle early Sunday
morning. Wet surfaces and clearing skies behind the departing low
may lead to the development of valley fog across central and
western NM early Sunday morning. A late season freeze is possible
early Sunday morning in the Albuquerque Metro and a Freeze Warning
may be required, although forecast confidence in a freeze Sunday
morning is low at this time. A warming/drying trend is forecast to
begin Sunday and continue through the middle of next week, with
backing and weakening westerly flow aloft. The latest medium
range model solutions are still signaling the potential for Gulf
moisture to infiltrate the eastern plains and result in a few
daytime heating triggered storms near the TX border from Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Conditions will continue to deteriorate from the west today and
overnight as an upper-low continues to dig into the Four Corners
region. Gusty southwest winds will favor eastern areas today,
although northeast winds continue across the northeast corner of
the state where a backdoor front is currently located. Showers
will increase in coverage across the west today and the addition
of afternoon sfc heating could spark some convective showers and
even a few lightning strikes. Gusty virga showers will be a threat
at central sites this evening, but no mention was made in TAFs
given the low likelihood.

The backdoor front across the northeast will surge westward
overnight, spilling through the gaps of the central mountain
chain. The range of winds at KABQ varies significantly from model
to model so confidence in wind speeds reaching AWW criteria is low
at this time. Widespread rain/snow showers and MVFR cigs will be
present along and west of the central mtn chain tonight and
tomorrow while cigs will be lower (widespread IFR) in the east
with little to no precipitation through 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS TODAY...

The subtropical jet will continue to cross south central and eastern
NM today, while a surface low bottoms out around 998 mb as it tracks
southward over over the northeast and east central plains. Breezy to
windy conditions are again expected along and east of I-25 today,
where humidities will drop near and below 15 percent.  An exception
may occur across the northeast plains, where a backdoor cold front
has already reached Clayton and Tucumcari early this morning.
Models depict the front retreating during the early afternoon
almost all of the way to Clayton. Thus, Union County will
probably have humidities too high for a Red Flag Warning today,
but there is a 50-70 percent chance that Harding County southward
have widespread red flag conditions this afternoon. Therefore, the
Red Flag Warning for today will be expanded to include the
northeast plains southwest of Union County. Otherwise, an upper
low will begin spreading wetting rain and snow over western and
far northern parts of the forecast area today, then over the rest
of the forecast area as well tonight and Saturday. The storm
track is forecast to remain well to the north of NM Sunday through
Thursday enabling temperatures to rise several degrees above
seasonal averages and seasonably gusty winds to develop each
afternoon. A return flow of low level moisture is forecast to
move through much of the eastern plains from the southeast
Wednesday or Wednesday night, resulting in wetting dryline
thunderstorms across the eastern plains by Thursday. Drier variety
convection may reach as far west as the central mountain chain
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  31  49  28 /  70  70  60  10
Dulce...........................  50  22  44  19 /  70  80  80  20
Cuba............................  54  27  42  22 /  60  70  70  30
Gallup..........................  52  22  46  18 /  70  80  60  10
El Morro........................  53  26  41  21 /  60  70  70  10
Grants..........................  59  25  46  20 /  40  60  60  10
Quemado.........................  58  27  43  22 /  30  60  60  10
Magdalena.......................  63  35  48  29 /   5  20  60  20
Datil...........................  58  30  43  24 /  10  50  60  10
Reserve.........................  63  27  51  20 /  10  60  60   5
Glenwood........................  68  31  57  28 /  10  40  60   0
Chama...........................  45  23  39  18 /  70  80  80  30
Los Alamos......................  54  34  44  27 /  50  60  80  60
Pecos...........................  57  31  45  26 /  20  40  80  80
Cerro/Questa....................  53  29  44  22 /  40  70  80  60
Red River.......................  43  23  32  18 /  50  80  80  80
Angel Fire......................  50  21  37  18 /  30  70  80  80
Taos............................  55  26  46  21 /  30  70  70  60
Mora............................  57  26  41  22 /  20  50  80  80
Espanola........................  63  33  53  29 /  30  60  70  50
Santa Fe........................  58  35  47  29 /  30  50  80  60
Santa Fe Airport................  62  34  48  27 /  30  50  70  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  66  41  51  32 /  30  40  80  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  38  53  33 /  20  40  60  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  71  38  56  33 /  20  40  60  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  39  53  32 /  30  40  60  40
Belen...........................  71  36  58  31 /  10  30  60  30
Bernalillo......................  68  38  53  32 /  30  50  70  40
Bosque Farms....................  71  36  56  31 /  20  40  60  30
Corrales........................  69  38  55  32 /  30  50  70  40
Los Lunas.......................  71  37  56  32 /  10  30  60  30
Placitas........................  63  38  49  30 /  30  50  80  50
Rio Rancho......................  68  38  53  32 /  30  50  60  40
Socorro.........................  74  40  60  35 /   5  20  50  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  33  45  28 /  30  50  80  60
Tijeras.........................  62  35  47  28 /  30  40  80  50
Edgewood........................  63  31  47  26 /  20  30  80  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  65  28  49  25 /  20  30  70  50
Clines Corners..................  61  28  45  26 /  10  20  70  70
Mountainair.....................  64  31  50  27 /   5  20  70  50
Gran Quivira....................  64  32  51  29 /   0  10  60  30
Carrizozo.......................  67  41  58  33 /   0   5  50  30
Ruidoso.........................  61  37  51  32 /   0   0  40  30
Capulin.........................  59  25  36  24 /  30  60  50  60
Raton...........................  63  27  42  24 /  30  70  60  50
Springer........................  65  30  42  25 /  20  40  60  60
Las Vegas.......................  61  29  44  25 /  10  30  70  80
Clayton.........................  68  32  44  32 /  20  40  40  80
Roy.............................  66  31  46  29 /  10  20  60  80
Conchas.........................  74  38  55  34 /   5  10  60  70
Santa Rosa......................  70  36  53  33 /   5   5  60  60
Tucumcari.......................  75  38  57  35 /   5   5  60  80
Clovis..........................  77  40  65  37 /  10   5  40  70
Portales........................  78  38  66  37 /   5   0  30  60
Fort Sumner.....................  76  38  62  35 /   5   0  60  60
Roswell.........................  81  46  73  41 /   5   0  20  20
Picacho.........................  73  40  65  36 /   0   0  30  20
Elk.............................  71  38  61  34 /   0   0  30  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106-
123>126.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT
Saturday night for NMZ210-211-213>215-227.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ235-236.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ202.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ225-226-238>240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16

Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.