304
FXUS65 KABQ 232351 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
551 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

- The potential for catastrophic flash flooding exists early this
  week, especially on Tuesday, across recent burn scars. This
  includes the Ruidoso area burn scars and Hermits Peak Calf
  Canyon burn scar.

- Urban and arroyo flash flooding, including the Albuquerque and
  Santa Fe Metros is likely across central and eastern NM on
  Tuesday and Tuesday night.

- Shower and storm coverage gradually lowers late in the week, but
  slow storm motion will keep the risk for flash flooding,
  especially on recent burn scars and saturated soils, in play.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The flash flood threat will continue this afternoon in south-central
NM as storms move off the Sacramento mountains into the southeast
plains. A stark moisture gradient is in place across the state, with
PWATs as high as 1.6" in far southeastern NM and as low as 0.3" in
north-central NM. That gradient will decrease with time as both sfc
and elevated moisture surges north and westward. Sfc winds are
currently out of the southeast across eastern NM, which is
concerning because it is bringing in even more sfc moisture from the
Gulf and moisture flux oriented roughly 30 degrees to the storm
motion will support training storms. Hi-res guidance has been
consistently showing the heaviest rainfall over the Roswell area,
which is of particular concern given the heavy rainfall and flooding
that occurred their Sunday afternoon. Recent guidance has kept storms
going longer into the night across southeastern NM given the
aformentioned moisture flux and ample instability. While flooding
will continue to be the main threat, wet microbursts and large hail
are on the table given how high the instability is.

These storms will send a boundary west and northward that will push
through the gaps of the central mountain chain this evening and
potentially create gusty southeast winds. The surge in moisture may
spark a few showers and even storms on the eastern edge of the Cont.
Divide that could create some gusty winds and light to moderate
rainfall in both Albuquerque and Santa Fe. Additional rounds of
showers may move over the burn scars late night, but rainfall rates
should be low enough to mitigate impacts there.

Tuesday is shaping up to be a very impactful day with the
potential for widespread flash flooding both on and off of recent
burn scars. GEFS mean PWATs are greater than 200% of normal across
the entire CWA and Albuquerque could threaten a daily record
PWAT. This means that rainfall will be very efficient, with the
potential to produce rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour. Storms in
the early afternoon will focus over the Continental Divide, with
activity increasing in intensity as it moves eastward. QPF remains
largely unchanged, with the NBM showing a large area of 0.5"+
across central and eastern New Mexico through Wednesday morning.
The 90th percentile show 1.5-2.5" in Albuquerque and Roswell and
around 2" over the Ruidoso are burn scars, which would almost
certainty be enough to create significant impacts. The flash flood
threat will continue well into the overnight areas over the burn
scars as well, with hi-res models showing rounds of showers with
embedded storms over the already saturated burn areas. This will
come on the heels of flash flooding that already occurred Monday
afternoon, further amplifying the risk of life-threatening impacts
in the Ruidoso area.

Another round of active weather is expected on Wednesday. A Flash
Flood Watch is already in effect for the Ruidoso area and another
broad brush Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed for much of
central and northern New Mexico again. Moisture content trends down
Wednesday, but will remain around 150-200% of normal so the flash
flood risk remains elevated, even though QPF is significantly lower
than Tuesday/Tuesday night. The thinking is that stabilization from
showers Tuesday night and Wednesday morning could inhibit rainfall
rates, however areas that clear will be able to tap into the higher
instability and generate heavier rainfall rates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Storms will once again continue into the overnight hours Wednesday
night as outflow boundaries collide and set off new storm
development. Rainfall rates should trend down as instability
decreases during the overnight. A trough passage to the north will
scour out some mid-level moisture for Thursday. This along with a
weakening of the trough over the desert southwest will result in a
downtick of storm coverage Thursday afternoon. Unfortunately, storms
will be confined to the most sensitive area (south-central
mountains) and storm motions will be slower than earlier in the
week. Friday and Saturday will be similar, especially as weak flow
aloft begins to trap moisture over the area. The central and western
portions of the state will clear out during this period, with
temperatures gradually rising to right around seasonal averages by
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Aviation forecast challenges centered around thunderstorm activity
within the season`s first monsoonal moisture plume. Thunder has
already occurred at KROW within the past two hours, and HRRR/LAV
guidance suggest this will continue for a few more hours. Lower
confidence at KTCC for the near-term. More favorable conditions
expected to prevail at KFMN and KGUP, with moderate-high
confidence there (60-70%). VFR should predominate for next 24
hours, though thunder chances enter the picture Tuesday afternoon
as the edge of the moist plume approaches western NM. KABQ and
KSAF likely (70-80% confidence) to see gap winds due to outflow
from storms to the east. Better chances for thunder in the RGV for
Tuesday, but KABQ/KAEG could still be clipped by a shower early
this evening, per radar/HRRR trends. KLVS, in addition to thunder
concerns, likely to have MVFR ceilings develop overnight,
especially if the flow can maintain a SE component. Signal in
guidance for MVFR in the eastern plains is pretty strong now, so
have included for KTCC and KROW. Lower confidence there for
redevelopment Tuesday mid-day onward, as the plume shifts west, so
going with PROB30 groups.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Widespread showers and storms are expected the next several days,
with a very high chance of wetting rainfall for areas along and east
of the Continental Divide. As a result, humidity recoveries will be
excellent across most of the area, except fair to good in far
western NM the next few mornings.

Moisture will surge west and northward this evening to the
Continental Divide, which will result in a period of gusty southeast
winds along the Rio Grande Valley this evening and overnight. Gusty
outflow winds will be a concern with any storm the next few days,
with the highest chance of a wet microburst in southeastern NM.
This heavy rainfall will increase the risk of flash flooding,
particularly over recent burn scars today through Thursday.

Drier air enters from the west late week, expanding eastward over
the weekend. Temperatures will also trend upwards, with afternoon
humidities again dropping into the single digits in western NM by
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  86  58  86 /   5  20  20  10
Dulce...........................  48  79  47  78 /  20  40  40  20
Cuba............................  56  77  53  76 /  20  60  50  40
Gallup..........................  49  83  48  83 /   0  20  10  10
El Morro........................  54  77  52  77 /   5  50  30  40
Grants..........................  53  79  53  79 /  10  60  40  50
Quemado.........................  56  80  55  79 /  10  50  40  40
Magdalena.......................  62  75  59  72 /  40  90  80  80
Datil...........................  56  76  55  74 /  20  80  60  70
Reserve.........................  50  84  50  85 /  10  50  30  40
Glenwood........................  55  88  55  88 /  10  50  40  40
Chama...........................  46  74  45  72 /  20  50  40  40
Los Alamos......................  59  74  57  72 /  40  80  70  60
Pecos...........................  56  70  55  69 /  50  90  80  80
Cerro/Questa....................  53  75  53  71 /  20  70  60  60
Red River.......................  45  66  44  63 /  20  80  60  60
Angel Fire......................  43  67  43  66 /  30  80  60  70
Taos............................  53  76  50  74 /  20  70  60  50
Mora............................  48  69  48  68 /  50  90  80  80
Espanola........................  59  81  57  78 /  40  80  70  60
Santa Fe........................  60  73  58  72 /  50  90  80  70
Santa Fe Airport................  60  76  57  74 /  50  80  80  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  79  63  77 /  40  80  80  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  81  63  78 /  40  80  80  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  83  62  80 /  40  80  80  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  81  63  79 /  40  70  80  60
Belen...........................  64  84  61  80 /  40  80  80  60
Bernalillo......................  65  82  62  80 /  40  80  80  60
Bosque Farms....................  63  83  60  80 /  40  80  80  60
Corrales........................  66  82  63  80 /  40  80  80  60
Los Lunas.......................  65  83  61  80 /  40  80  80  60
Placitas........................  63  77  61  76 /  40  80  80  60
Rio Rancho......................  66  81  62  80 /  40  70  80  60
Socorro.........................  68  82  64  80 /  40  80  80  80
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  73  55  71 /  40  80  80  70
Tijeras.........................  60  75  58  73 /  40  80  90  70
Edgewood........................  56  74  54  72 /  50  90  90  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  75  53  73 /  50  90  90  80
Clines Corners..................  56  69  54  68 /  50  90  90  80
Mountainair.....................  58  74  55  72 /  50  90  90  80
Gran Quivira....................  58  73  55  71 /  50  90  90  80
Carrizozo.......................  63  73  61  74 /  60  90  90  90
Ruidoso.........................  57  66  56  67 /  60 100  80  90
Capulin.........................  54  71  53  71 /  60  80  60  60
Raton...........................  53  75  53  74 /  50  80  60  60
Springer........................  56  75  55  75 /  50  90  60  70
Las Vegas.......................  55  69  54  69 /  60  90  80  80
Clayton.........................  61  79  61  79 /  70  60  40  30
Roy.............................  58  71  58  72 /  70  80  70  60
Conchas.........................  63  79  63  78 /  80  90  70  60
Santa Rosa......................  62  74  61  74 /  70  90  80  70
Tucumcari.......................  63  82  63  81 /  70  60  50  40
Clovis..........................  66  84  65  84 /  70  40  30  30
Portales........................  65  85  65  85 /  70  40  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  63  79  63  79 /  80  80  60  60
Roswell.........................  70  84  68  85 /  70  60  50  50
Picacho.........................  63  74  61  75 /  80  90  70  80
Elk.............................  58  73  58  74 /  80  90  80  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night
for NMZ207-211>225-227>229-232-233.

Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for NMZ235>240.

Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...53-Schroeder