142
FXUS65 KABQ 161211 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
611 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 611 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

- High flash flood threat below recent burn scars each day this
  weekend into early next week. Flood Watch for the northern
  Sacramento Mountains including Ruidoso for this afternoon and
  early evening.

- Monsoon moisture will support locally heavy rainfall in a few of
  the stronger storms the next few days with isolated flash
  flooding possible daily through Tuesday. The greatest coverage
  of storms through Monday will be across southern areas and also
  northward along the central mountain chain.

- Strong to severe storms expected over northeast areas Monday.

- Decreasing storm coverage and rainfall intensity are now
  forecast Wednesday through Friday, when high temperatures will
  climb with areas of moderate heat risk developing at lower
  elevations west of the central mountain chain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Models are in good agreement on some drier air working its way
over the northwest quarter of the forecast area this weekend,
while a moderately rich stream of monsoon moisture tracks
northeastward over southern and eastern areas. Thus, showers and
storms will be isolated over northwest areas today and Sunday,
with better coverage each afternoon and evening over southern
areas and along and east of the central mountain chain. PWATS are
forecast to vary around 100-150% of normal across the south and
east, so at least a few storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rain at rates well over 1 inch per hour. With a lack
of a strong disturbance in the monsoon flow, any occurrence of
heavy rain should be isolated. High res models are in fair
agreement at this hour that the most likely place for locally
heavy rainfall today will be over the south central mountains,
where a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding remains in effect from 12-9
PM. Both the southwest and south central mountains will be
favored for heavy rain on Sunday, as the drier air over northwest
areas tries to invade some of north central and northeast NM as
well. High temperatures should vary from near to around 6 degrees
below 1991-2020 averages today, then climb up to 5 degrees on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

After spending the weekend enjoying the beautiful Mississippi
River Valley, the high pressure center aloft will recenter over
the CO/NM border Monday and Tuesday, then build over the Four
corners during the middle to latter half of the work week. Thus,
the moisture will begin to recycle over southern and eastern
areas on Monday as storms slow down and begin to change
directions. Monday`s crop of storms will benefit from a south and
south southeasterly return flow of low level moisture, and models
now depict sufficient shear and instability in northwest flow
aloft for some strong to severe storms to track southeastward over
northeast and east central areas during the afternoon and
evening. Storms elsewhere should begin tracking south and
southwest off the high terrain and over adjacent lowlands on
Monday, then more-so on Tuesday as a backdoor front moves all the
way through the forecast area. The front should produce a
moderately strong gap wind below canyons opening into the central
valleys from the east Tuesday night.

Drier air will then work its way over the forecast area from the
northeast on Wednesday through Friday with less coverage of storms
and lighter rainfall intensity. Moisture will continue to recycle
under the fairly strong upper level high pressure system with
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring
the mountains and west each afternoon and evening. After high
temperatures roughly near average to start the week, readings
should be able to climb near to several degrees above average
during the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor
southern areas and the central mountain chain eastward this afternoon
and evening. More isolated activity is forecast over northwest New
Mexico. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing
localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts around 40 KT, and there
will probably be some dry or mostly dry microbursts along and
west of a line from Albuquerque to Taos. A few cells may linger
after midnight tonight across the southeast plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Monsoon moisture looks to remain in place over southern and
eastern areas today as drier air begins working its way over
northern areas from the west. There will probably be a downtick
in storm coverage over northwest areas today, then over northeast
areas as well on Sunday. Some gusty virga showers will probably be
in the mix along and west of a line from Albuquerque to Taos today
and Sunday. Storms will move toward the northeast and east today
and Sunday, then more toward the southwest and west during the
coming work week after some slow and erratic motions on Monday.
Models continue to depict pockets of critically low humidity
returning near the Four Corners early in the work week, but
minimum humidities may briefly bounce back above 15 percent there
with the arrival of a moist backdoor front Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  88  61  91  60 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  85  45  88  47 /  20   5  10   5
Cuba............................  83  54  86  57 /  20  10  10  10
Gallup..........................  84  50  86  51 /  20  10  10   5
El Morro........................  80  53  82  54 /  40  20  30  20
Grants..........................  83  54  86  54 /  30  20  30  20
Quemado.........................  80  55  82  56 /  60  30  50  30
Magdalena.......................  81  61  84  62 /  50  20  40  20
Datil...........................  78  55  81  57 /  60  20  50  20
Reserve.........................  85  53  88  54 /  70  30  60  20
Glenwood........................  89  57  92  59 /  70  30  50  20
Chama...........................  79  47  82  49 /  30  10  30  10
Los Alamos......................  80  60  84  62 /  40  10  30  10
Pecos...........................  81  56  85  56 /  40  20  30  10
Cerro/Questa....................  80  53  83  54 /  40  10  40  10
Red River.......................  71  45  73  46 /  50  10  40  10
Angel Fire......................  73  39  77  39 /  50  10  40  10
Taos............................  82  50  86  52 /  40  10  20  10
Mora............................  76  51  80  51 /  50  20  40  10
Espanola........................  88  57  93  59 /  30  10  20  10
Santa Fe........................  82  61  86  62 /  30  20  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  86  59  89  60 /  30  10  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  88  68  91  70 /  30  20  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  65  93  67 /  20  20  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  92  64  95  66 /  20  20  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  90  66  93  67 /  20  10  10  10
Belen...........................  90  61  94  63 /  30  20  10  10
Bernalillo......................  91  64  94  65 /  20  10  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  90  61  93  63 /  20  20  10  10
Corrales........................  91  65  94  67 /  20  10  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  90  63  93  65 /  20  20  10  10
Placitas........................  87  64  90  65 /  20  10  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  90  65  93  67 /  20  10  10  10
Socorro.........................  90  65  94  67 /  40  20  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  82  59  86  61 /  30  20  20  10
Tijeras.........................  86  61  90  62 /  30  20  20  10
Edgewood........................  85  56  90  57 /  30  20  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  54  88  55 /  30  20  20  10
Clines Corners..................  78  56  82  58 /  40  20  20  10
Mountainair.....................  83  57  86  59 /  40  20  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  81  57  84  59 /  50  20  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  83  61  86  64 /  60  30  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  74  57  77  58 /  80  30  70  30
Capulin.........................  80  55  82  54 /  40  20  40  20
Raton...........................  83  54  86  53 /  50  10  40  10
Springer........................  85  54  88  54 /  40  20  30   5
Las Vegas.......................  81  54  84  54 /  50  20  30  10
Clayton.........................  88  64  90  63 /  20  20  10  20
Roy.............................  84  58  86  58 /  40  20  20  10
Conchas.........................  90  65  93  65 /  30  20  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  85  61  90  62 /  40  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  87  64  90  65 /  20  20  10  20
Clovis..........................  91  67  92  67 /  30  20  20  30
Portales........................  92  68  93  68 /  40  30  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  89  66  92  67 /  30  20  10  20
Roswell.........................  92  69  95  70 /  40  30  30  20
Picacho.........................  84  62  88  63 /  60  30  50  20
Elk.............................  82  59  84  60 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44