Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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217 FXUS65 KABQ 192038 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 238 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Severe weather and flash flooding threatens areas along and east of the central mountain chain and highlands to the TX border this afternoon and evening. Total accumulations through Sunday night across parts of eastern NM could reach up to 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts. Meanwhile, snow will remain relegated to the higher terrain of the northern mountains where another several inches is possible tonight through Sunday morning. A light dusting will again be possible along the Continental Divide and mid- elevations between 7,500` and 9,000`. Conditions finally clear out by Monday morning as the main storm system crosses northern NM and exits toward the northeast. Warmer and drier weather is in the cards for the rest of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 The 565dm H5 low is centered over AZ north of Tucson with abundant moisture still being advected northward ahead of it over central and eastern NM. The 12Z ABQ sounding was near or above the 90th percentile for PWATs at 0.68". Higher low-level Gulf moisture in the form of dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s will continue to support the threat of heavy rains and flash flooding along and east of the central mountain chain where a Flood Watch remains. Strong wind shear coupled with the ample moisture continues to support the slight risk for storms to become strong to severe in this same area this afternoon. Already a N-S oriented line has developed over the highlands from the Sangre de Cristo`s to the south-central mountains. A few of these cells are already producing pea to quarter size hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. The spread of severe weather across the eastern plains will be dependent upon how much instability there will actually be. The bank of low clouds persisting this morning suggest it could be limited. The western shift in the position of the H5 low also brings the main dynamical forcing a bit further west as well, less aligned with this area of ample moisture over eastern NM. Nevertheless, burn scar flash flooding over both the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon and Ruidoso burn scars will be a main threat this afternoon. This line of thunderstorm activity will slowly progress eastward over the Pecos River Valley and the eastern plains this evening with the threat of heavy rain shifting over the northeastern plains Sunday morning. Will keep the Flood Watch going as is. A secondary band of showers with embedded thunderstorms lays along and west of the Continental Divide this hour. This area will begin to expand back over the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon where another round of showers with thunderstorms is likely from Socorro to Albuquerque and northward. Snow levels will fall again this tonight with a light dusting or light snow along the Continental Divide again between Gallup and Grants Sunday morning. Higher snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts atop the peaks above 12,000` will be possible over the northern mountains tonight into Sunday morning. Will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going for the northern Sangre de Cristo Mts as is. Precipitation chances continue over the northern mountains through Sunday as the core of the H5 low tracks over northern NM, ejecting to the east by Monday morning. Conditions clear out west to east, first over west-central and southwestern NM Sunday, then over northern and eastern NM by Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 The long term period beginning Monday afternoon sees conditions clearing Monday night into Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures rebound and conditions dry out again. A backdoor cold front does look to swing into eastern NM Wednesday bringing a brief and minor cool down to eastern NM. Otherwise, a return to beautiful Fall weather is on tap through most of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Widespread terminal and aviation impacts across northern and central NM continue today and through the TAF period. An upper low centered over central AZ is bringing bands of showers and storms northward through central and western NM this hour. This activity will spread over eastern NM as the lower MVFR/IFR ceilings clear somewhat over eastern NM this afternoon. Individual thunderstorms within longer bands will be capable of becoming strong to severe across eastern NM as they track toward the north this afternoon and thru the overnight period. MVFR/IFR ceilings with severe hail and winds and a low chance for a tornado will be possible. More sporadic breaks will be present along and west of the Rio Grande Valley, but a band of more moderately intense thunderstorms is expected to develop over the lower and middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. This will bring temporary impacts to terminals from KONM to KABQ to KSAF this afternoon and early evening. Showers with embedded thunderstorms further west will begin to lessen in coverage tonight for KFMN and KGUP. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024 There are no fire weather concerns across eastern NM given the influx of abundant moisture and the threat of flash flooding there now through Monday morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be more sporadic along and west of the Rio Grande Valley during this evening. Windy conditions will be present, but the cooler weather and higher moisture content removes any fire weather concerns. Conditions clear out and dry out Monday night as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures rebound and humidities fall, as do winds. Ventilation will be most poor to fair next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 44 61 36 60 / 90 60 20 0 Dulce........................... 32 61 27 58 / 80 90 60 0 Cuba............................ 42 60 30 58 / 80 80 40 0 Gallup.......................... 27 58 23 63 / 80 20 0 0 El Morro........................ 34 58 28 62 / 70 20 0 0 Grants.......................... 35 63 27 65 / 70 20 10 0 Quemado......................... 31 60 27 65 / 30 20 0 0 Magdalena....................... 44 66 36 66 / 40 20 10 0 Datil........................... 36 63 30 66 / 20 20 0 0 Reserve......................... 28 67 27 75 / 10 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 40 71 40 77 / 5 10 0 0 Chama........................... 34 55 27 54 / 80 90 70 0 Los Alamos...................... 46 58 38 58 / 90 80 70 0 Pecos........................... 45 58 36 58 / 100 80 80 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 38 58 32 55 / 90 80 80 0 Red River....................... 32 48 26 47 / 100 80 80 0 Angel Fire...................... 30 53 25 51 / 100 90 80 0 Taos............................ 39 60 32 57 / 90 90 70 0 Mora............................ 37 56 30 60 / 100 90 90 0 Espanola........................ 45 66 37 65 / 80 80 80 0 Santa Fe........................ 48 60 38 58 / 90 80 80 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 63 37 61 / 80 80 70 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 68 43 65 / 80 50 60 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 70 40 66 / 60 50 50 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 50 72 38 69 / 60 50 40 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 70 41 67 / 70 60 40 0 Belen........................... 47 72 37 68 / 60 40 30 0 Bernalillo...................... 50 71 40 68 / 80 60 50 0 Bosque Farms.................... 46 71 35 68 / 60 50 40 0 Corrales........................ 50 72 40 68 / 70 50 50 0 Los Lunas....................... 48 72 37 68 / 60 50 30 0 Placitas........................ 50 68 41 63 / 80 60 60 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 71 41 67 / 70 60 50 0 Socorro......................... 50 76 42 73 / 40 40 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 62 35 58 / 90 60 60 0 Tijeras......................... 47 64 37 60 / 80 60 60 0 Edgewood........................ 43 65 32 61 / 90 60 60 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 66 29 63 / 80 60 60 0 Clines Corners.................. 43 61 35 58 / 90 80 60 0 Mountainair..................... 44 65 34 63 / 80 60 30 0 Gran Quivira.................... 45 65 35 63 / 70 70 30 0 Carrizozo....................... 49 71 44 69 / 80 50 30 0 Ruidoso......................... 45 66 43 66 / 90 40 40 0 Capulin......................... 44 55 39 61 / 100 80 70 5 Raton........................... 43 58 35 66 / 100 80 60 5 Springer........................ 45 59 36 67 / 100 90 80 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 58 35 66 / 100 90 80 0 Clayton......................... 52 62 50 69 / 90 70 80 20 Roy............................. 48 58 43 66 / 100 90 90 10 Conchas......................... 53 66 48 70 / 100 90 90 5 Santa Rosa...................... 52 62 45 65 / 100 90 80 5 Tucumcari....................... 53 68 50 72 / 90 70 80 20 Clovis.......................... 55 69 54 74 / 70 50 70 20 Portales........................ 56 70 56 75 / 60 40 60 20 Fort Sumner..................... 55 67 51 71 / 100 80 80 5 Roswell......................... 61 75 56 78 / 90 60 60 0 Picacho......................... 51 69 46 73 / 80 60 50 0 Elk............................. 48 71 44 76 / 80 50 50 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NMZ214-215-223-226- 228>240. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Sunday for NMZ213. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24