209
FXUS65 KABQ 212326 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today
  and Saturday with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic
  wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, ponding of water on roads,
  as well as a risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars.

- Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality
  in the vicinity of the fire this week.

- Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and
  eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week
  with record and near-record high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The monsoon high has built northward a bit and become a bit more
concentric with less of a west-to-east elongation. This will keep
light winds aloft over NM, creating sluggish steering flows while
500 mb heights of 597-598 decameters correspond to above normal,
and potentially record-breaking temperatures. This will make it
difficult for slow-moving storms to propagate off of the terrain,
and convective initiation in lower elevations will be largely
dependent on mesoscale cold pools to catalyze development.
However, a few stray updrafts will have enough instability to work
with to generate isolated storms, even in the eastern plains
through the evening. Storms are modeled to dissipate through the
evening with minimal, if any, shower activity surviving beyond
midnight.

On Saturday, the upper high shifts ever so slightly to the
northeast, centering near the NM-CO border with heights reaching
596-598 decameters. Slightly drier air will wrap into NM, and this
will keep the heat going while storm coverage reduces and confines
itself toward the western and northern high terrain. Any storms
over the northern high terrain would likely become less efficient
rainfall producers due to the lower PWATs (0.6 to 0.7 inch).
Temperature-wise, lots of 90`s and low 100`s will be prevalent,
especially over the lower elevation valleys and plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The upper high will then settle slightly southward into Sunday
with similar height and wind fields. Deterministic QPF again
focuses convective initiation over the western and northern
mountains Sunday afternoon with minimal storms elsewhere. A
shortwave trough is modeled on the northern periphery of the high
in CO, and this could ignite a few storms that sag into northern
NM, but this feature will likely become more of a player into
Monday, as it moves into the plains and sends a backdoor front
into northeastern NM.

Subtle dewpoint rises and more of an upslope surface wind
component will lead to better convective initiation on the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristos Monday. Subsequent outflow will
then potentially spread additional storms farther south and west
with minimal changes to the storm coverage elsewhere through
Monday evening.

By Tuesday, the GFS continues to keep the northeast favored for
storms, although surface winds will have veered and/or lost much
of their upslope component by then. The long range ensembles also
latch on to the northeast and secondarily the western mountains
for Tuesday with the high having settled just south of I-40.

The consensus is for the high to nudge slightly southwestward
into Wednesday, bringing more of a northwesterly wind component
aloft to the northeastern corner of NM. This will open the door
to another moist front that could reintroduce storms to
northeastern and east central zones through Wednesday evening.
Meanwhile, PWATs of 0.6 to 0.8 inch will keep storms going over
other western and northern high terrain areas, but with spotty
rainfall footprints. Overall heights are shown to start reducing
by 1 to 3 decameters Wednesday, but temperatures will still be
above average by 5 to 10 degrees in most locales.

For Thursday, the high is modeled to remain centered over
southwestern NM with only slight reductions in heights (594-596
decameters at 500 mb). Storm coverage will depend on recycling of
previous day`s moisture, but for now PWATs are shown to range
from 0.7 to 1.1 inch with the eastern plains observing higher
values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered thunderstorms continue across much of central NM as of
2330z. A few outflow boundaries can be seen on radar in the Rio
Grande Valley south of ABQ, as well as just east of the Sandia and
Manzano Mountains. Outflow boundary collision appears likely,
both with each other and with terrain, which is favorable for
continued thunderstorm development. Have reintroduced PROB30s at
KABQ/AEG for TSRA given a similar setup that produced evening
storms yesterday. Outflows elsewhere will also be capable of brief
wind gusts at or greater than 35kts, and any direct storm impacts
may bring about quick MVFR/IFR visibilities. Storms should
dwindle in coverage through the evening hours before ending around
06z. Additional storm development is likely across the high
terrain tomorrow afternoon, once again after 18z. The primary
hazards of gusty winds and brief MVFR/IFR visibilities remain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

No widespread, long duration wind concerns are forecast through
the next several days as high pressure aloft dominates the weather
pattern. The monsoon high will keep winds aloft light, and any
gusty wind concerns will mostly emanate from brief-lived
thunderstorm outflows. The upper high will remain strong through
the forecast period, keeping temperatures hot. The position of
this feature will also inhibit the arrival of any new moisture
increases, leading to a more subdued coverage of storms, and
activity will be mostly focused over the western and northern
high terrain each day. The exception will be with occasional
increases in storms over northeastern NM next week where weak
backdoor frontal intrusions arrive. The hot temperatures and
generally more subdued moisture will lead to lower humidity
values in the afternoons with minimum RH values of 12 to 20% being
more common each day. The overnight and morning humidity
recoveries will also be impacted with readings only rising to
40-60% in many zones with bouts of higher recovery in the eastern
plains when weak, moist surface boundaries and subsequent storms
arrive next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  94  65  95 /  30  10  20   5
Dulce...........................  54  91  52  91 /  30  40  20  20
Cuba............................  59  89  59  90 /  30  20  20  20
Gallup..........................  58  90  57  90 /  30  40  20  30
El Morro........................  56  85  56  86 /  30  50  30  40
Grants..........................  59  89  58  90 /  30  50  20  40
Quemado.........................  60  86  58  86 /  20  50  20  40
Magdalena.......................  64  88  63  89 /  20  30  20  20
Datil...........................  59  85  58  85 /  20  40  20  30
Reserve.........................  59  93  57  93 /  20  30  20  30
Glenwood........................  64  98  63  98 /  10  30  20  20
Chama...........................  54  84  53  84 /  30  50  20  30
Los Alamos......................  64  88  64  87 /  20  20  20  40
Pecos...........................  58  90  59  90 /  20  20  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  56  86  57  85 /  20  40  20  50
Red River.......................  45  80  46  78 /  20  50  30  40
Angel Fire......................  37  83  41  82 /  20  50  20  20
Taos............................  57  90  57  88 /  20  30  20  20
Mora............................  55  87  55  86 /  20  30  20  40
Espanola........................  59  95  61  94 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe........................  61  91  63  90 /  20  20  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  59  93  61  93 /  20  10  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  94  67  95 /  10   5  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  95  68  96 /  10   5  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  97  63  98 /  10   5  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  96  69  97 /  10   5  10   5
Belen...........................  67  98  65  99 /   5   5  10   0
Bernalillo......................  66  96  67  97 /  10   5  20   0
Bosque Farms....................  63  97  63  97 /  10   5  10   0
Corrales........................  66  97  67  98 /  10   5  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  64  97  64  98 /  10   5  10   0
Placitas........................  66  93  65  94 /  10   5  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  68  96  68  96 /  10   5  20   5
Socorro.........................  71  99  70  99 /  10  10  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  89  63  90 /  10   5  20   0
Tijeras.........................  64  91  64  91 /  20   5  20   0
Edgewood........................  61  90  60  91 /  20  10  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  93  57  93 /  20   5  20   5
Clines Corners..................  61  90  61  90 /  20   5  20   5
Mountainair.....................  62  91  61  92 /  20   5  20   0
Gran Quivira....................  62  90  61  91 /  20   5  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  67  94  66  95 /  10  20  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  54  87  58  88 /  10  30  10  10
Capulin.........................  59  89  58  88 /  20  30  30  40
Raton...........................  57  93  58  91 /  20  20  20  40
Springer........................  57  96  58  94 /  20  20  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  57  91  58  91 /  20  10  20  30
Clayton.........................  66  98  67  97 /  20   5  20  20
Roy.............................  62  95  64  94 /  20   5  10  10
Conchas.........................  68 102  70 101 /  20   0  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  66  98  67  98 /  20   0  10   0
Tucumcari.......................  69 102  71 102 /  20   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  70  99  70 100 /  20   5   5   0
Portales........................  70 100  71 101 /  20   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  69 100  69 101 /  20   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  71 102  70 103 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  66  97  66  98 /  10  10   0   0
Elk.............................  63  92  62  93 /  10  20   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...77