Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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553 FXUS65 KABQ 092323 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 423 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 423 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Warming temperatures will allow for snow melt and improving paved road conditions. Unpaved roads will experience muddy and uncertain travel conditions still. - Freezing fog remains likely to return tonight through Sunday morning in valley locations of central and northwestern NM. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 Snowmelt and warming temperatures is the rule over the next several days as sunny skies and warmer air temperatures move in. Snow will hold on the longest where the highest drifts have developed over north-central and northeastern NM. So far, blowing ground snow has been very limited given temperatures hovering near or just above freezing in these areas. Freezing fog is expected to develop again tonight in valley areas of central and northern NM where snow remains. The question is precision and timing of the freezing fog. The weather pattern will be hold true through the work week, warming steadily each day. The one exception will be a brief pause in the warming trend Tuesday into Wednesday with an increase in windy westerlies Tuesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 The winter storm system from the prior 3 days is now an occluded H5 low over Nebraska this afternoon. Clear sunny skies have graced the Land of Enchantment today, leaving behind a clear view of the snow cover on the ground across central and northern NM. Travel conditions are steadily improving as snow melts. The potential for any blowing ground snow has been greatly minimized as temperatures hover near or above freezing in many of these areas where thick snowfall lays. Freezing fog from this morning has lifted, but is expected to redevelop tonight in some valley areas of central and northern NM, to include the Estancia Valley and upper Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Far Northwest Highlands north of the Jemez Mountains up toward Chama and Dulce. The question here will be how northwesterly winds impact the potential for freezing fog development in the Estancia Valley. Northerly drainage winds are expected to inhibit fog development at Santa Fe as well, but did include it for the evening hours before those drainage winds strengthen. Temperatures were dropped in central and northern valley areas tonight as winds are expected to decouple more than they did last night. So areas like Angel Fire in the Moreno Valley should see minimum temperatures fall considerably compared with this morning`s readings. Angel Fire in particular has a forecast low of -1F, but this will entirely rely on how fast winds decouple within the localized valley there. Also brought MaxT`s well below model guidance where the thickest snowfall was reported from Clines Corners to the Sangre de Cristo Mts and adjacent northeastern highlands and plains for Sunday. Persistent snow coverage will limit any warming in these areas at least through Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 Monday begins the long term period with the warming trend continuing as the northern fringe of a high pressure system builds over southern and central NM. Winds will be light, increasing Tuesday in response to a shortwave trough skirting northern NM in the afternoon. Windy conditions will be felt from the central and northeastern highlands eastward toward the TX border where peak gusts to 25 to 35 mph will be felt. The warming trend continues Thursday from its brief pause Tuesday and Wednesday. A more active weather pattern returns next weekend as another jetmax within the polar jet screams into the PacNW generating the next storm system diving down into the Intermountain West. The question remains how deep this upper low will become, if it can close off. With the upper level pattern it has been, a more amplified polar jet pattern with a closed low would seem the more likely scenario. This would favor cooler and wetter conditions across New Mexico with this next storm system next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 423 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 VFR conditions with light winds prevail for the TAF period with one excpetion. Areas of LIFR conditions from low ceilings and fog and freezing fog is expected to return tonight through just after sunrise Sunday morning for the northwest highlands around Dulce and Chama and the Estancia Valley, near K0E0 due to snowcover. There is potential for some low clouds and fog near or at KSAF before the north drainage wind picks up overnight. Few high clouds move across the airspace tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 209 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 Heavy snow across portions of central and northern NM will remain over the next several days before it entirely melts off. Temperatures will steadily warm up each day through Tuesday. Winds increase and ventilation improves Tuesday in response to a weak weather system skirting northern NM, allowing peak wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph across the Central and Northeastern Highlands and Northeastern Plains Tuesday afternoon. Winds lessen Wednesday and temperatures resume their warming trend through the end of next week. A more active weather pattern is favored by next weekend with another possible winter storm system reaching the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 25 53 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 12 49 15 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 20 45 23 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 17 56 20 60 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 23 55 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 17 54 21 57 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 23 58 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 28 55 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 25 56 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 22 67 26 69 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 28 69 30 71 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 16 48 20 53 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 27 45 30 49 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 26 45 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 20 44 23 47 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 13 38 15 39 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... -1 37 4 39 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 15 45 17 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 16 40 25 41 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 20 50 22 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 26 44 30 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 22 44 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 30 51 35 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 26 52 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 24 53 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 27 50 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 22 53 21 55 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 25 51 28 53 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 21 53 19 55 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 23 52 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 23 53 21 55 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 28 48 32 50 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 26 50 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 28 58 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 25 47 30 49 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 27 49 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 20 44 25 51 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 15 43 17 52 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 23 39 27 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 21 48 25 51 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 23 50 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 32 61 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 32 60 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 22 40 27 46 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 18 44 22 53 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 16 39 20 47 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 16 42 26 47 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 27 43 31 49 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 24 44 25 48 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 26 58 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 28 53 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 26 61 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 33 68 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 34 67 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 30 63 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 37 70 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 35 69 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 33 71 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...71