295
FXUS65 KABQ 032329 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact the
  region through tonight. Storms will be capable of producing
  very heavy rainfall with flash flooding possible within central
  and eastern NM, particularly over area burn scars.

- Drier air sweeps in on the Fourth of July and Saturday,
  limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before
  rain chances rise again Sunday through the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 400 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity has mostly moved east
of the central mountain chain and mostly off the burn scars of
Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon and by the Ruidoso area. While a few
showers are still passing over the HPCC burn scar, flash flooding
is no longer expected today. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch is
cancelled.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Scattered thunderstorms have already developed across the high
terrain, with continued development likely as we progress further
into the later afternoon. PWAT from the 18z KABQ sounding shows
1.18" along with relatively long, skinny CAPE profiles, both of
which support an atmosphere capable of efficient rainfall rates.
Flash flooding will be the main threat with any storm today,
especially for burn scars, poor drainage areas, and locations which
received substantial rainfall last night. The current Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect for the HPCC and Ruidoso area burn scars for
the higher confidence in flash flooding. Even with that, flooding is
possible across much of the area given the atmospheric setup, though
with lower confidence. As storms develop and move off of the high
terrain, SBCAPE values above 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear
sitting around 20-30kts supports the potential for a stronger storm
or two, with damaging winds and large hail being the main hazards.
Any stronger storm is likely to favor the eastern plains of NM,
along with the threat of heavy rainfall. Activity is likely to be
cut off across western central NM by the early overnight hours, with
a slight chance of storms continuing in eastern NM through midnight
tonight.

Drier air shifts into NM late tonight and into tomorrow, cutting off
precipitation chances for just about all of the forecast area except
for the far northeast and southwest, where isolated showers and
thunderstorms remain possible. Breezy and dry northwest winds are
likely across much of the state. Temperatures rebound back to the
lower to mid 90s for much of the lower elevations, which sits near
or just below average for early July.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Dry, upper level southwest flow, mixed with minor ridging, continues
to entrench the state Saturday, continuing another dry, warm day for
the region. Near to slightly above average temperatures are likely,
especially along and south of I-40. The ridging becomes a full high
pressure by late Saturday into Sunday, located near the bootheel of
NM. Moisture begins to wrap around its northern periphery Sunday
morning, beginning several days of more traditional afternoon
terrain-driven convection. Sunday may be a slightly more active day
across eastern NM as model guidance is hinting at higher shear and
instability values, raising the chances for strong to severe storms
in the afternoon/evening hours. Much of the same can be expected
Monday through at least Wednesday as the upper high creeps
northwestward. The only change this would bring is the mean storm
motion, shifting more north to south as the week goes on given the
high`s position. Slow and erratic storm motion is likely with weaker
upper level flow, so flash flooding remains a concern especially
over burn scars.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

High resolution models depict numerous showers and thunderstorms
on the eastern plains gradually shifting east of New Mexico by 08
or 09Z tonight. Meanwhile, another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to produce significant wind gusts as
they track eastward over western and central areas this evening.
These cells probably won`t survive the downslope flow once they
cross the central mountain chain. Much drier air will arrive from
the west late tonight and Friday with only a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms near and east of Raton Pass, and an even
smaller chance around Glenwood.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025

No critical fire weather conditions are expected in the next several
days. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are likely through the
evening tonight. Wetting footprints are likely with any
shower/thunderstorm, and locally heavy rainfall remains possible,
especially across recent burn scars. Storm motions are likely to
move slowly to the east/northeast throughout today. Friday and
Saturday turn much drier with upper level dry southwest flow
entering the area. High pressure builds over western NM Sunday into
next week, returning a more traditional afternoon cycle of
thunderstorms. Slow storm motions and increased low level moisture
will make for higher chances of locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  89  58  92 /  20   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  45  86  43  89 /  40   5   0   0
Cuba............................  52  83  54  88 /  60   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  47  86  49  89 /  40   0   0   0
El Morro........................  50  82  53  87 /  40   0   0   5
Grants..........................  50  86  52  91 /  40   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  53  83  54  88 /  50   5   5  10
Magdalena.......................  59  86  62  90 /  40   5   0   0
Datil...........................  53  82  56  87 /  40   5   0   5
Reserve.........................  49  89  50  94 /  40  10   0  20
Glenwood........................  54  92  55  97 /  40  20   5  20
Chama...........................  44  78  45  84 /  50  10   0   5
Los Alamos......................  56  83  61  87 /  60   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  55  82  58  87 /  60   5   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  51  81  53  86 /  40  10   0  20
Red River.......................  44  73  45  76 /  40  10   5  20
Angel Fire......................  42  76  39  79 /  40  10   0  30
Taos............................  50  84  50  88 /  40   5   0  10
Mora............................  48  81  51  84 /  50  10   0  20
Espanola........................  57  91  57  94 /  60   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  57  84  61  89 /  60   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  56  88  58  92 /  60   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  90  67  95 /  60   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  91  64  97 /  50   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  94  63  99 /  50   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  92  65  97 /  50   0   0   0
Belen...........................  62  94  61  97 /  50   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  62  93  63  97 /  50   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  60  94  60  97 /  50   0   0   0
Corrales........................  63  94  63  98 /  50   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  62  94  62  97 /  50   0   0   0
Placitas........................  61  88  63  93 /  60   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  62  92  64  97 /  50   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  65  96  67  99 /  40   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  84  58  89 /  60   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  57  86  60  91 /  60   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  54  85  55  90 /  50   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  86  51  92 /  50   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  55  81  57  86 /  50   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  55  84  57  89 /  60   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  56  84  57  89 /  60   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  62  89  64  94 /  60   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  57  81  59  87 /  50   5   0   5
Capulin.........................  54  81  55  83 /  50  20  10  30
Raton...........................  54  86  55  88 /  50  10   5  30
Springer........................  55  88  55  89 /  50  10   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  53  85  55  87 /  50   5   0  20
Clayton.........................  62  89  63  90 /  50  20  10  10
Roy.............................  58  86  59  88 /  70  10   5  10
Conchas.........................  63  93  64  95 /  60   5   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  62  90  62  93 /  50   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  63  91  63  92 /  60   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  65  93  65  94 /  60   0   0   5
Portales........................  65  94  64  96 /  60   5   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  65  94  63  97 /  50   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  69  96  69 100 /  20   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  62  90  64  94 /  30   5   0   0
Elk.............................  60  88  61  92 /  30  10   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...44