416
FXUS65 KABQ 201130 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
530 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

- Minor to moderate flash flood threat will continue below recent
  burn scars today.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus along
  and east of the central mountain chain today then mainly along
  the Continental Divide Thursday and Friday. A pattern change
  toward wetter and cooler conditions is possible for parts of the
  region Saturday through next week.

- Increasing high temperatures mid to late-week will elevate the
  threat for moderate heat risk in most lower elevation locations
  with major heat risk possible in the Four Corners region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 157 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

An overall downtick in storm coverage is expected today. 24-hr QPF
values ending at midnight tonight are lower today and with smaller
footprints compared to yesterday. The H5 high will also strengthen
to near 598dm around Cortez today which will trend max temps even
warmer around the Four Corners. Drier air aloft rounding the upper
high is likely to strengthen subsidence as well, especially across
northeast NM. Despite these limiting factors, there is still decent
mid and low level moisture over central, southern, and southeast NM
with PWATs >1". Storm initiation is likely to take place over the
higher terrain and parts of southeast NM around noon. Steering flow
will then force isolated to scattered storms toward the southwest on
convective outflows thru sunset. No Flood Watch will be issued for
the Ruidoso area as 00Z HREF probability matched mean QPF and NBM
90th percentile QPF are <0.25". The HRRR and RRFS also keep any
heavier cells south and west of Ruidoso. Any lingering showers over
the region after sunset will dissipate quickly with partial clearing
expected tonight for central and western NM.

By Thursday, the H5 high center will drift west toward far southeast
UT and weaken to near 596dm. Storm coverage will remain limited with
small footprints of heavier rainfall. The primary focus is expected
to be near the Cont Divide with storms producing gusty outflows as
they move from northeast to southwest toward Farmington and Gallup
by late afternoon. The drier and more stable air aloft will spread
to more of eastern and southern NM with a near-asbence of convection
in those areas Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

The H5 high center will become a more elongated ridge axis centered
from southern UT to southern CO Friday. The drier and more stable
air aloft is expected to continue progressing westward more into
southwest NM with most of central and eastern NM precip free. A
few gusty showers and storms are still possible over northwest NM
with little to no rainfall expected. High temps will be peaking
around 5F degrees above normal over northern NM with readings near
normal across the south and east.

There is still a pattern change possible with wetter and cooler
conditions beginning Saturday. The 00Z NAEFS continues to show an
unseasonably strong upper level trough spreading southeast from
Canada toward the Great Lakes region. A series of moist shortwave
troughs are shown exiting the Front Range within the larger trough
Saturday and Sunday. A couple moist backdoor cold fronts are also
shown moving southwest toward northeast NM. Meanwhile, the H5
high center is nudged south thru NM and into the Permian Basin
area by Monday. Model agreement is actually quite good this far
out and has become consistent the past couple days. The WPC QPF
advertised is eye-popping across parts of the area over the 4-day
period from Saturday to Tuesday, especially for northeast NM.
Even western NM has potential to see some much needed rainfall.
The overall message at this time is still the potential for cooler
and wetter weather for the weekend into early next week across at
least northern and eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

A couple showers and storms are still trekking southwest from
near Clovis to Roswell before sunrise. Isolated SHRA/TS will
continue moving southwest thru the morning before coverage
increases after 1pm. Direct hits from this activity may produce
brief MVFR vsbys in heavy rainfall. Elsewhere, SHRA/TS will
develop around the high terrain after 11am then move southwest
into nearby highlands and the RGV thru sunset. Gusty winds are
expected with any of this activity today. Showers will dissipate
after sunset with lingering mid level cigs across central and
western NM thru midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

A strong upper level high over northwest NM today will gradually
shift west into southern UT thru Saturday. Above normal temps with
min humidity of 15 to 20% will continue for northwest NM today and
Thursday. However, a few gusty and dry storms are still possible
as activity moves southwest off the high terrain each afternoon.
The wetter storms will still be along and east of the central mt
chain today. Thursday and Friday will feature a slight uptick in
wet/dry storms with gusty winds over northwest NM while eastern NM
sees less coverage. A pattern change toward wetter and cooler
conditions may begin Saturday across northern NM as a moist
shortwave trough slides down the Front Range with a strong
backdoor cold front. This wetter pattern may persist thru next
week as the upper level high shifts southeast thru NM into the
Permian Basin. Forecast confidence is moderate at this time given
recent model consistency. There may be some hope on the horizon
for much needed rainfall over central and western NM as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  66  98  67 /  10  10   5  20
Dulce...........................  91  52  93  52 /  30  20  20  20
Cuba............................  87  57  90  57 /  30  30  40  30
Gallup..........................  92  57  92  56 /  20  20  20  30
El Morro........................  88  57  86  57 /  20  20  30  40
Grants..........................  88  58  92  58 /  20  20  20  30
Quemado.........................  87  59  87  58 /  30  20  40  40
Magdalena.......................  85  63  87  62 /  20  10  20  10
Datil...........................  83  57  85  57 /  20  10  20  20
Reserve.........................  90  56  92  56 /  40  20  40  30
Glenwood........................  92  59  94  60 /  50  20  30  20
Chama...........................  83  51  87  52 /  40  20  20  20
Los Alamos......................  84  62  88  62 /  40  20  40  10
Pecos...........................  83  55  85  55 /  50  20  30   5
Cerro/Questa....................  83  54  86  54 /  30  10  30   5
Red River.......................  73  46  76  46 /  40  10  30   5
Angel Fire......................  76  38  79  38 /  40  10  20   5
Taos............................  85  55  89  54 /  30  10  20   5
Mora............................  78  50  81  50 /  50  10  20   5
Espanola........................  92  60  95  59 /  30  20  20  10
Santa Fe........................  83  60  87  60 /  40  20  30  10
Santa Fe Airport................  88  59  91  59 /  30  20  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  68  92  70 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  69  94  68 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  67  97  67 /  10  10  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  67  95  67 /  20  20  10  10
Belen...........................  94  64  95  64 /  10  10  10  10
Bernalillo......................  93  66  96  66 /  20  20  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  93  63  96  63 /  10  10  10  10
Corrales........................  93  65  97  66 /  20  20  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  93  63  96  64 /  10  10  10  10
Placitas........................  89  64  92  66 /  20  10  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  92  67  96  67 /  20  20  10  20
Socorro.........................  94  67  96  67 /  10  10   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  62  87  61 /  20  10  20  10
Tijeras.........................  86  63  88  63 /  20  10  20  10
Edgewood........................  86  59  89  58 /  20  10  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  53  90  54 /  10  10  20   5
Clines Corners..................  81  58  84  58 /  10  10  10   5
Mountainair.....................  85  59  87  59 /  20  10  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  84  58  86  59 /  20  10  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  85  62  88  63 /  30  10  10   0
Ruidoso.........................  77  56  79  57 /  50  10  10   0
Capulin.........................  81  55  84  55 /  10  10   0   0
Raton...........................  84  54  88  53 /  10  10   5   0
Springer........................  86  54  90  54 /  10  10   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  81  54  85  54 /  30  10  20   5
Clayton.........................  88  62  90  61 /   5   5   0   0
Roy.............................  84  59  86  58 /  10  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  90  63  93  64 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  88  62  90  62 /  10  10   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  88  61  89  62 /   5  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  91  65  92  65 /  20  10   5   0
Portales........................  91  64  92  64 /  20  10   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  90  64  92  65 /  10  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  92  67  94  68 /  20  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  87  61  88  61 /  20   5   5   0
Elk.............................  81  58  85  57 /  40   5  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42