Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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339 FXUS65 KABQ 141928 CCA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 128 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 - Scattered showers and storms this afternoon will favor central and western NM, then become more numerous from Wednesday through late week. Small hail, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding may occur with stronger storms. - There is a low risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars through Thursday, then at least a moderate risk from Friday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 An upper level ridge over the southern Rockies and Four Corners region will gradually weaken through Wednesday as an inverted trough over central TX creeps toward southeast NM. PWATs will continue to increase in this regime and today`s KABQ 18Z upper air sounding is already showing 0.90". Today`s crop of daytime heating initiated convection is already well underway and will favor areas along/west of the central mountain chain per the latest CAMs. Strong/erratic wind gusts will be the primary thunderstorm threat today with these southwest movers, but small hail and heavy downpours are likely as well along with a typical cloud-to-ground lightning threat. More of the same on Wednesday, although with a lean toward heavier downpours given PWATs continuing a slow uptrend. The KABQ PWAT is modeled to reach 1.10" or greater by 00Z Thursday. The CAMs are showing boundary collisions keeping convection going through the evening hours Wednesday across western NM. The flash flood threat over the Ruidoso area burn scars will remain low during this period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 From Thursday through Saturday, the inverted trough over west TX will creep into southeast NM and the Four Corners ridge will finally lose it`s grip, bringing slightly lower pressure heights, lighter steering flow and a continued uptrend in PWATs. Precipitation efficiency will increase during this period and produce larger footprints of soaking rains that are typical of active Monsoon periods. The flash flood threat over the Ruidoso area burn scars may be low on Thursday, but will quickly increase to at least a moderate risk on Friday and Saturday. The flash flood threat elsewhere is non-zero and a watch may be required for Thursday or Friday for western and potentially central portions of NM depending on how the previous day`s rainfall distributes. High temperatures will trend down and be below average from Thursday through Saturday thanks to the added cloud cover and rain-cooling of the lower boundary layer. There are some differences among the 12Z medium range model solution with regard to the placement and strength of the Monsoon high early next week, but the KABQ PWAT is modeled to remain elevated between 1.10-1.20", which is above the 90th percentile for those days and plenty supportive of daily rounds of convection with potential for locally heavy rainfall. The Monsoon is about to get active! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with a couple of exceptions. Short-lived MVFR conditions are possible in/near scattered showers and storms this afternoon/evening west of the central mountain chain. In addition, areas of low stratus will likely develop across eastern NM early Wednesday morning, possibly lowering into the MVFR category at KROW. Thunderstorms to the east of KABQ later this afternoon will likely create a gusty east canyon wind, with peak speeds between 35-40kts. Otherwise, gusts to 35-40kts will be common with showers and storms this afternoon/evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days as Monsoon moisture increases over the region. Humidity will continue to trend up across the area, with recoveries gradually improving to good to excellent areawide over the coming days. Chances for wetting storms will favor central and western NM through Thursday, then gradually expand east to include the eastern plains by early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 65 93 63 90 / 20 30 70 30 Dulce........................... 52 88 51 84 / 50 60 80 60 Cuba............................ 57 83 55 80 / 40 50 50 40 Gallup.......................... 57 88 55 83 / 40 60 70 40 El Morro........................ 57 83 55 78 / 30 70 80 50 Grants.......................... 58 87 56 82 / 30 50 70 40 Quemado......................... 59 83 57 79 / 30 70 70 60 Magdalena....................... 64 84 61 80 / 10 40 50 30 Datil........................... 59 81 57 77 / 30 60 70 40 Reserve......................... 56 86 55 83 / 40 70 40 60 Glenwood........................ 58 88 57 86 / 40 60 40 60 Chama........................... 49 81 48 78 / 50 70 70 70 Los Alamos...................... 62 82 60 80 / 20 50 50 40 Pecos........................... 54 79 53 79 / 30 60 40 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 54 80 53 79 / 30 60 50 60 Red River....................... 46 70 45 70 / 30 70 60 70 Angel Fire...................... 41 73 40 74 / 30 70 60 70 Taos............................ 53 83 52 81 / 30 50 50 50 Mora............................ 51 76 50 76 / 30 70 40 50 Espanola........................ 61 88 59 86 / 20 40 40 40 Santa Fe........................ 60 81 58 81 / 20 60 50 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 85 57 84 / 20 40 40 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 87 63 86 / 20 40 40 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 88 63 87 / 20 40 40 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 91 63 89 / 20 30 40 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 89 65 88 / 20 30 40 20 Belen........................... 65 91 62 89 / 20 30 30 20 Bernalillo...................... 65 90 64 88 / 20 40 40 30 Bosque Farms.................... 63 90 60 88 / 20 30 30 20 Corrales........................ 65 90 64 88 / 20 40 40 20 Los Lunas....................... 64 91 61 88 / 20 30 30 20 Placitas........................ 65 87 64 85 / 20 40 50 30 Rio Rancho...................... 66 89 64 87 / 20 40 40 20 Socorro......................... 70 92 67 89 / 5 20 30 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 81 58 80 / 20 50 50 40 Tijeras......................... 60 84 59 83 / 20 50 40 30 Edgewood........................ 57 83 56 82 / 20 50 40 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 84 52 84 / 20 50 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 55 80 54 79 / 10 40 20 20 Mountainair..................... 58 83 56 82 / 20 50 30 30 Gran Quivira.................... 59 82 56 81 / 20 40 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 62 85 61 84 / 5 20 10 20 Ruidoso......................... 55 75 54 75 / 10 20 10 30 Capulin......................... 54 80 53 80 / 5 10 5 10 Raton........................... 53 84 53 85 / 5 20 5 10 Springer........................ 55 84 54 86 / 10 20 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 54 78 53 79 / 20 50 20 20 Clayton......................... 61 87 60 87 / 0 5 0 5 Roy............................. 59 82 58 83 / 10 20 5 5 Conchas......................... 63 90 63 90 / 5 20 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 62 86 60 86 / 5 20 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 63 91 63 91 / 0 5 5 5 Clovis.......................... 62 87 61 86 / 0 10 5 10 Portales........................ 62 88 61 87 / 0 10 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 64 89 62 88 / 0 10 5 5 Roswell......................... 67 89 64 87 / 20 10 10 10 Picacho......................... 61 84 59 83 / 20 20 10 10 Elk............................. 56 80 55 79 / 10 20 10 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11