Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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926 FXUS65 KABQ 171134 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 434 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 352 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 - A Pacific storm system will bring cooler and unsettled weather from late Tuesday night through Thursday night, with good chances for mountain snow and valley rain. - There is a moderate to high chance (60-80%) that winter highlights will be required for accumulating snow in the mountains from Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1202 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 The first in a series of upper level troughs/lows is currently racing northeast through the central and southern Rockies per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. Strong winds aloft rounding the base of the trough across northern NM are bringing windy conditions to the Sangre De Cristos currently, which will expand across the adjacent eastern and central highlands later this morning. A Wind Advisory is in effect for these areas through 2PM MDT, with gusts to between 50-55mph likely. Downslope warming will keep relative warmer conditions going across much of eastern NM 5 today, with high temperatures forecast to be 5-10 degrees above average. Moisture advection will ramp up Tuesday in advance of the next upper level low, currently offshore of northern CA per the latest water vapor satellite imagery. The result will be increasing cloud cover, but with forcing too weak to produce precipitation. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1202 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 The latest model solutions are in good agreement on the timing and track of the next upper low, forecast to impact the region from late Tuesday night through Thursday night. Moisture advection will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday, with PWATs rising well above normal across much of the area in advance of the approaching 556dam 500mb low. A jet maxima rounding the base of the low will pull northeast away from the upper circulation going into Thursday, bringing a filling upper low and negatively tilted trough squarely over NM. The strongest forcing in this scenario will be over our area late Wednesday night through Thursday, when PoPs are highest and continuing to trend up with each forecast cycle. Snow levels will be relatively high through this event, with significant snow accumulation likely above 7500ft. At this time, there is a moderate to high chance (60-80%) that winter highlights will be required for the mountains of NM for late Wednesday night through Thursday night. Snow may work down to around 6Kft Thursday morning, but will mix with rain and the airmass won`t be supportive of major population centers being impacted by accumulating snow. Notably cooler conditions will come Thursday and continue into Friday as the system pulls northeast into the central US Plains and away from NM. Lower forecast confidence on the timing and placement of the next upper low, which will begin impacting the region late in the weekend after a roughly two day lull in activity. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 352 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 Areas of MVFR cigs will prevail across western NM this morning and may impact KGUP. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. Strong westerly winds are likely resulting in areas of low level wind shear early this morning, but are not forecast to impact TAF sites. Gusty westerly winds will prevail for much of the day across eastern NM, impacting KTCC and KLVS with frequent gusts to between 28-33kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the next seven days. A series of Pacific storm systems will impact the region through the weekend, bringing higher humidity, chances for wetting precipitation and notably cooler conditions. The first system is currently moving across the central and southern Rockies and will bring breezy to locally windy conditions to much of eastern NM today. The second storm system will hit the area Wednesday and Thursday, with the potential for more widespread wetting precipitation and snow accumulation in the mountains. The third system will impact the area late in the weekend. Vent rates will trend down and be mostly poor late in the week and through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 52 33 57 36 / 0 0 10 20 Dulce........................... 47 20 54 27 / 20 0 5 20 Cuba............................ 50 28 53 31 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 52 30 56 29 / 0 5 5 20 El Morro........................ 50 30 54 32 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 54 29 57 29 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 55 30 56 34 / 0 0 0 10 Magdalena....................... 59 36 58 40 / 0 5 0 5 Datil........................... 55 31 56 34 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 58 31 58 31 / 0 0 5 30 Glenwood........................ 62 36 62 35 / 0 0 10 30 Chama........................... 41 20 48 27 / 30 0 0 20 Los Alamos...................... 52 33 53 38 / 0 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 53 32 56 35 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 26 52 32 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 42 22 50 28 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 44 17 53 26 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 50 23 55 30 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 52 29 57 32 / 0 0 0 5 Espanola........................ 57 29 59 34 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 54 32 55 38 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 30 58 36 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 38 58 44 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 39 61 43 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 36 60 41 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 64 34 62 38 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 60 34 61 39 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 62 32 62 35 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 60 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 63 33 61 36 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 57 36 58 42 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 59 35 59 41 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 66 38 64 42 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 53 33 55 39 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 55 34 57 41 / 0 0 0 5 Edgewood........................ 55 30 58 38 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 26 60 31 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 53 31 56 36 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 56 32 58 39 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 57 33 58 38 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 61 40 62 43 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 56 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 10 Capulin......................... 59 28 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 62 26 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 62 27 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 58 32 59 36 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 67 37 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 63 33 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 69 37 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 64 40 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 71 39 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 69 42 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 71 40 73 44 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 69 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 74 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 68 41 70 44 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 65 37 67 40 / 0 0 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ213>215. Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ223. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11