630
FXUS65 KABQ 211938
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
138 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture will bring widespread
  heavy rain Tuesday through Thursday with a good chance for
  scattered occurrences of flash flooding, as well as some main
  stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon moisture surge will continue at a less intense pace
  Friday with a continued threat of locally heavy rainfall, even
  as rain amounts begin to trend downward.

- A drying and warming trend will begin this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A backdoor front is making slow westward progress across the
eastern plains/highlands and will surge west overnight through
central NM, aided by an approaching Pacific low currently over
SoCal. The backdoor front will create a gusty east canyon/gap wind
into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys this evening as it
pushes through the central mountain chain, but speeds are forecast
to remain well below advisory criteria. The upper high will center
over east TX Tuesday, while the Pacific low/trough slows it`s
approach over the Great Basin and Desert SW, causing a Monsoon
moisture plume to stand up over the region. Moisture advection
will be the story Tuesday, with PWATs racing up to near calendar
day records by the evening hours. Shear and instability will be
sufficient on Tuesday afternoon/evening for a few strong to
potentially severe storms along/west of the central mountain
chain, with impressive rainfall rates possibly leading to flash
flooding. The flood threat in Ruidoso is looking low through the
daylight hours Tuesday per the latest CAMs, but will trend up
Tuesday night as widespread showers w/embedded thunder unfolds
across most of the area. Soaking rainfall is forecast Tuesday
night, but rainfall rates will decline as left-over instability
gets depleted. That said, efficient rain-making in a high PWAT
atmosphere will allow rainfall to add up, with minor flooding
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

PWATs are modeled to peak Wednesday and challenge calendar day
records. Wednesday will be one of the wettest days in recent
memory, in terms of widespread soaking rainfall. The 12Z NAM MOS
is showing a 100 PoP for KABQ on Wednesday, which is extremely
rare for our area. The day will start with ongoing precipitation
and a rain-cooled lower boundary layer that will significantly
limit instability, but a mid level disturbance is forecast to move
north over western NM and provide added forcing to keep some
convection going. Highs on Wednesday will be well below average
thanks to the rain-cooling and cloud cover. The disturbance will
shift northeast across northern NM Wednesday night, refocusing
heavier rainfall further north. The flash flood risk will increase
Wednesday over a larger area and the current Flash Flood Watch
goes through Wednesday at 6PM, but may need to be extended through
Thursday. The atmosphere will be worked-over going into Thursday
and will take awhile to destabilize and produce a crop of
convection absent a mid level disturbance like Wednesday. The
3-day storm total mean qpf is impressive, favoring central and
eastern NM with amounts generally ranging from 2-4". The burn scar
flood threat in Ruidoso will be high on Wed/Thu, with increasingly
wet antecedent conditions requiring less rainfall to produce
flash flooding. The Pacific low/trough is forecast to open up and
progress east across the southern Rockies and NM Friday, producing
a crop of convection across our area despite a downtrend in
PWATs. Grounds will be saturated by Friday, so the flash flood
threat will persist with less rain needed to cause problems. PWATs
will continue the downtrend over the weekend with warming under
the influence of the westerlies. A low amplitude upper level
trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Intermountain
West late Sunday through Monday, interacting with lef-over
moisture across NM and producing more showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Except for areas of MVFR cigs behind a backdoor front across east
central and northeast NM, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast
to persist into this evening. Development and gradual lowering of
VFR cigs are forecast overnight into Tuesday across central and
western NM. Low stratus/fog is likely early Tuesday morning behind
the backdoor front, likely impacting KSAF and KROW with MVFR cigs.
The backdoor front will create a gusty east canyon wind at KABQ
overnight, but speeds are forecast to remain below Airport Weather
Warning criteria at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for at least the
next seven days as a very wet late Monsoon season pattern persists.
Humidity and very good chances for soaking rainfall will trend up
rapidly Tuesday into Wednesday and then persist through Thursday
before trending down going into the weekend. Despite some drying
and warming over the weekend, humidity recovery will be good to
excellent due to saturated grounds and left over moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  80  56  68 /   5  40  60  60
Dulce...........................  44  76  46  63 /   5  70  80  90
Cuba............................  50  72  50  61 /   5  50  70 100
Gallup..........................  49  76  50  66 /   0  60  60  80
El Morro........................  49  71  49  62 /   0  70  80  90
Grants..........................  51  73  52  63 /   5  60  80  90
Quemado.........................  52  73  53  64 /   0  70  80  90
Magdalena.......................  57  72  54  61 /   0  70 100 100
Datil...........................  53  70  51  60 /   0  70 100 100
Reserve.........................  53  77  54  68 /   5  60  90  90
Glenwood........................  60  81  58  73 /   5  60  80  90
Chama...........................  46  69  46  59 /   5  70  80 100
Los Alamos......................  54  71  53  61 /  20  50  80 100
Pecos...........................  51  71  51  62 /  20  60  90 100
Cerro/Questa....................  49  71  49  61 /   5  30  60 100
Red River.......................  42  62  43  54 /   5  40  60 100
Angel Fire......................  37  67  38  58 /  10  60  70 100
Taos............................  47  74  48  63 /   5  40  60 100
Mora............................  49  69  50  60 /  20  60  80 100
Espanola........................  54  79  54  66 /   5  40  70  90
Santa Fe........................  54  72  53  62 /   5  60  90 100
Santa Fe Airport................  55  75  54  65 /  10  50  80 100
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  78  58  67 /  10  60  90 100
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  78  58  67 /   5  60  90  90
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  80  58  69 /   5  60  80  90
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  78  58  67 /   5  60  80  90
Belen...........................  57  80  58  69 /   5  50  80  90
Bernalillo......................  58  79  58  68 /   5  60  80 100
Bosque Farms....................  56  80  56  69 /   5  60  80  90
Corrales........................  58  79  58  68 /   5  60  80  90
Los Lunas.......................  56  80  57  68 /   5  50  80  90
Placitas........................  57  77  57  66 /   5  60  90 100
Rio Rancho......................  58  78  58  67 /   5  60  80  90
Socorro.........................  61  80  59  68 /   0  60  90  90
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  72  53  62 /  20  70  90 100
Tijeras.........................  55  74  55  63 /  20  70  90 100
Edgewood........................  53  74  53  64 /  20  60  90 100
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  76  51  65 /  20  60  80 100
Clines Corners..................  53  71  52  62 /  20  60  90 100
Mountainair.....................  53  73  53  64 /  10  70  90 100
Gran Quivira....................  55  74  55  64 /   5  60  90 100
Carrizozo.......................  60  78  58  67 /   5  60  80 100
Ruidoso.........................  54  70  54  62 /  10  60  90 100
Capulin.........................  51  72  52  65 /  20  30  60  90
Raton...........................  52  75  51  66 /  20  30  60  90
Springer........................  53  77  53  68 /  20  30  70  90
Las Vegas.......................  52  70  52  62 /  20  50  90 100
Clayton.........................  56  76  57  71 /  20  20  60  90
Roy.............................  55  73  56  67 /  20  30  80  90
Conchas.........................  60  81  61  75 /  20  40  80  90
Santa Rosa......................  60  79  60  70 /  20  30  90  90
Tucumcari.......................  60  81  61  76 /  20  30  70  80
Clovis..........................  60  80  60  76 /  20  40  70  70
Portales........................  61  81  61  77 /  20  40  70  70
Fort Sumner.....................  62  82  62  74 /  20  40  90  90
Roswell.........................  65  85  63  77 /  10  40  80  80
Picacho.........................  60  78  59  69 /  20  50  90 100
Elk.............................  57  75  57  67 /  20  60  90  90

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon
for NMZ204-206>208-211-212-214-215-217>226-228-229-231>233-
237>241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11