328
FXUS65 KABQ 212317 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
417 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 415 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

 - High temperatures well above 30-year averages Friday and
   Saturday.

 - Breezy to windy conditions in many locations Sunday, and
   especially Wednesday when temperatures will fall areawide.

 - Increasing precipitation chances over northern and western
   areas late Monday through Wednesday, when the northern
   mountains may accumulate a few to several inches of snow.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

High temperatures will vary around 7 to 14 degrees above 1991 to
2020 averages Friday and Saturday with dry weather and plenty of
sunshine. Winds will become gusty Saturday, then breezy to windy
in many locations Sunday. Temperatures will also trend cooler
Sunday, and especially Monday, as high temperatures fall up to 8
degrees below 30-year averages behind a backdoor cold front over
east central and northeast areas. There will be some rain and snow
showers over and west of the Tusas Mountains Sunday afternoon and
evening with little accumulation. A series of disturbances will
bring increasing chances for rain and snow to northern and west
central areas Monday afternoon through Tuesday, then also to
central areas on Wednesday as breezy to windy conditions redevelop.
The northern mountains will probably accumulate a few to several
inches of snow as temperatures drop below 30-year averages over
northern and western New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

A broad and low amplitude ridge will persist over the region through
Friday night, with a very dry and stable lower boundary layer.
The only moisture to be found in upper air soundings across the
region is way up high and resulting in passing high clouds. This
atmosphere will allow for large diurnal temperatures ranges of up to
50 degrees at a few western locales such as Gallup. The ridge is
associated with a warming trend and highs on Friday will be several
degrees warmer than today`s and generally above normal areawide.
Albuquerque is forecast to reach up into the lower 60s for highs
Friday while a few eastern locales, such as Roswell, reach up to 70
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Winds will become gusty in many places Saturday, then breezy to
windy in many locations on Sunday as an upper level trough passing
eastward along the CO/WY border strengthens the flow aloft. As the
weather system exits east of the Rockies it will send a backdoor
cold front into eastern NM on Monday, when winds will be weaker.
After high temperatures around 6-14 degrees above 1991-2020
averages Saturday and Sunday, readings will fall on Monday a few
to around 20 degrees below Sunday`s readings. There will probably
be some rain and snow showers along the CO/NM border Sunday
afternoon and evening from the Tusas Mountains westward.

A very positively tilted upper level trough crossing the central
and southern Rockies from the west northwest, and a series of
preceeding disturbances tracking eastward along the CO/NM border,
will bring increasing coverage of rain and snow showers to
northern and western parts of the forecast area with each period
Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, then even into central
areas on Wednesday. Although this system brought an intense
atmospheric river over northern CA, the flow of moisture will
decrease a lot before it reaches NM with the best chance of any
wetting precipitation in the northern mountains and the Chuska
Mountains, and spottier wetting precip at lower elevations of
northern and far west central NM. The northern mountains will
probably accumulate a few to several inches of snow with the
greatest amounts near the CO border. Winds will become gusty
again in many locations Tuesday, then breezy to windy across much
of the forecast area on Wednesday. Pacific and backdoor cold
fronts will also cross on Wednesday dropping high temperatures as
much as 6 degrees below 30-year averages over northern and western
areas, while central and southeast areas remain a few to around 9
degrees above the averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 415 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR will impact all terminals the next 24 hrs with clearing skies
and light, terrain dominated winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through at least
the next seven days. A very dry and stable atmosphere will persist
across the region under the influence of an upper level ridge
through Saturday. The westerlies will trend up late in the weekend
through the middle of next week, brining Pacific moisture and higher
humidity, notable winds along/east of the central mountain chain and
improving ventilation for some areas. Chances for wetting
precipitation will be on the uptrend next week as well, mainly
across the western and north central mountains. A more widespread
wetting precipitation scenario involving a cold front and upper
level trough may unfold across the region Wed/Thu of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  18  57  23  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  15  61  16  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  21  59  23  60 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  10  63  13  63 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  19  63  22  61 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  13  64  14  66 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  21  65  20  66 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  32  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  27  63  25  65 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  18  70  20  70 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  31  72  32  72 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  18  56  18  55 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  31  57  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  29  62  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  18  53  18  55 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  16  49  15  50 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................   3  52   3  51 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  11  57  12  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  29  61  26  63 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  23  61  24  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  30  58  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  24  60  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  32  60  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  30  61  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  26  63  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  28  62  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  24  63  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  29  63  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  23  63  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  28  63  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  23  63  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  30  60  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  29  62  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  31  64  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  30  58  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  31  60  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  28  61  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  19  63  20  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  28  61  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  29  61  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  28  63  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  35  66  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  39  65  39  63 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  27  58  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  21  62  21  64 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  16  60  17  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  29  66  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  33  64  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  27  63  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  28  66  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  30  70  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  28  66  29  71 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  32  67  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  31  68  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  30  69  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  34  70  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  37  72  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  35  73  37  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...42