465
FXUS65 KABQ 020155 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
755 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 755 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

- Monsoon moisture remains over much of northern and central New
  Mexico today through Thursday, allowing for greater coverage of
  showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. These
  will be efficient rain producing storms which will increase the
  risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially over
  recent burn scars.

- Drier air sweeps in by the Fourth of July holiday and Saturday,
  limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before
  rain chances rise again on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Forecast models have not been doing well as of late, but today
does look to be setting up as expected. That is, eastern NM is
quite stable, and showers with light to occasionally moderate
rainfall rates will be the rule. There may be a few thunderstorms,
but generally short-lived. Meanwhile, across the west, where
steeper mid-level lapse rates, less cloud cover and increased
moisture exists, scattered thunderstorms capable of gusty and
erratic winds, small hail and heavy downpours will be the rule.
While storms across western NM diminish by the midnight hour,
showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will persist across
southeast NM through the overnight hours, and potentially right
through Wednesday morning. This will again raise the question of
stability across southeast NM, including the Ruidoso area.
Confidence is pretty high that areas east of the Sacramento
Mountains will remain stable, but CAMs seem to be very
enthusiastic about QPF over Ruidoso and the burn scars Wednesday
afternoon. With mid-level lapse rates similar to today, continued
cool temperatures and lots of cloud cover, currently think the QPF
may be overdone and rainfall may be lighter like today. So for
now, have not issued a Flood Watch for the burn scars as
confidence is low. However, if overnight precipitation ends
earlier than predicted, and more sun destabilizes the area
Wednesday morning, higher rainfall amounts and rates would be
possible. Meanwhile, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
erupt across western NM in a typical monsoon fashion. The
Southwest Mountains look to be favored for heavy rainfall, but any
storm will have the capability of producing heavy rainfall as
PWAT values remain near to above normal.

The upper level low currently over the Pacific will shift eastward
over CA through Wednesday. This low will weaken into an open
trough over the CA/AZ border early Thursday. Ahead of this main
trough, a weak shortwave will eject northeastward over NM on
Thursday. This shortwave should aid in thunderstorm develop across
western and central NM, and in fact Thursday may be the most
active day of the next week. Behind the shortwave, somewhat drier
air will move into western NM, setting up a moisture gradient
somewhere near or just east of the ContDvd. These moisture
gradients combined with some forcing (aka, the shortwave), usually
prove to be fruitful for NM in terms of numerous storms. PWATs
ahead of this feature will be near 1 inch, so plenty of juice for
heavy rainfall producing storms. A few strong storms with hail and
gusty winds will be possible as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Storms will continue to shift east or northeastward through
Thursday night as the main upper trough axis near the AZ/NM
border. Most storms should end by midnight but wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few linger overnight, especially across eastern
NM. The trough axis will quickly move eastward across NM Friday
morning and much, much drier air will filter in behind it. PWATs
will drop to near 0.5 inches across much of central and western
NM. Couldn`t rule out a stray shower over the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains or another high terrain area, but they will be few and
far between. The upper high will begin to build over NM and the
combination of few storms and increasing H5 heights, temperatures
will climb 5 to 10 degrees for most areas. The upper high will
continue to strengthen over NM on Saturday, continuing to limit
convection and raise temperatures. A weak boundary across NE NM
may trigger a few thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, but
most areas will remain dry.

On Sunday, abundant low level moisture will return to eastern NM,
and weak upslope flow should trigger isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the Central Mountain Chain. The upper high
will remain strong center across western NM, around 594-595dam, so
storms across eastern NM should drift toward the southeast. The
west will remain largely dry. It appears low and mid level
moisture will seep northward under the upper high on Sunday night
and Monday. This will set the stage for greater coverage of
showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon, though it may be a mix
of wet and dry storms across western NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

High resolution models keep scattered-to-isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast this evening over west central and
southwest areas, and all night east of the Sacramento Mountains,
with spottier activity overnight elsewhere. Areas of low clouds are
forecast to develop late tonight along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain from about Las Vegas southward, and also
farther east, south of I-40.  Southwest flow off the Caprock makes
it unlikely the flight category will drop below low VFR at KTCC. The
low clouds should burn off my mid-to-late morning Wednesday at Las
Vegas, but models have them lingering most or all of the day with
showers and some embedded thunderstorms east of the Sacramentos and
as far north as Clovis. Meanwhile, scattered-to-numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to return elsewhere across southern parts
of the forecast area on Wednesday afternoon, with scattered-to-
isolated showers and thunderstorms farther north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday across
the area. Heavy rainfall will be a concern today, mainly across
western NM, and then Wednesday and Thursday across much of central
and western NM.  Storms will also be capable of gusty and erratic
winds. Eastern NM will remain more showery through Wednesday due
to more stable conditions. A dry slot will punch into the state on
Friday, significantly limiting convection. With strong mixing,
some of this dry air will reach the surface and RH values will
lower to near or slightly below 15 percent along and west of the
Rio Grande Valley. RH values below 15 percent will return on
Saturday for much of western and central NM as well. A boundary
across northeast NM may bring a few storms Saturday, but most of
the area will remain dry once again. Moisture return will begin on
Sunday across eastern NM, allowing for increased storm coverage.
Mid level moisture will seep northward Sunday night and Monday.
Low levels will remain rather dry across western NM, so we may see
a few dry storms across the west Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  91  63  86 /  20  10  30  20
Dulce...........................  46  86  49  82 /  30  20  20  40
Cuba............................  51  82  55  81 /  20  20  30  50
Gallup..........................  53  86  55  81 /  20  40  30  30
El Morro........................  54  81  54  79 /  20  60  50  60
Grants..........................  52  84  55  81 /  20  40  30  60
Quemado.........................  54  82  57  79 /  30  60  50  60
Magdalena.......................  57  78  60  79 /  20  50  40  70
Datil...........................  52  78  55  77 /  20  60  50  70
Reserve.........................  51  86  53  85 /  40  60  50  50
Glenwood........................  56  89  57  88 /  50  70  50  50
Chama...........................  45  80  47  76 /  30  30  30  50
Los Alamos......................  56  78  58  78 /  20  30  20  60
Pecos...........................  51  76  55  79 /  20  40  30  60
Cerro/Questa....................  48  80  53  80 /  20  30  10  50
Red River.......................  42  71  45  71 /  20  30  10  50
Angel Fire......................  38  73  41  72 /  20  30  10  50
Taos............................  49  82  53  82 /  20  30  10  40
Mora............................  46  74  48  76 /  20  40  20  60
Espanola........................  57  86  60  87 /  20  30  20  50
Santa Fe........................  53  79  58  81 /  20  40  30  50
Santa Fe Airport................  54  82  58  84 /  20  30  20  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  84  64  84 /  20  30  30  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  85  65  86 /  20  30  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  87  63  87 /  20  30  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  30
Belen...........................  59  87  64  88 /  20  20  30  30
Bernalillo......................  60  87  64  87 /  20  20  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  58  86  62  87 /  20  30  20  30
Corrales........................  60  87  64  87 /  20  30  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  59  86  63  87 /  20  20  20  30
Placitas........................  59  83  62  83 /  20  30  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  61  86  65  86 /  20  20  30  30
Socorro.........................  64  87  66  88 /  20  30  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  79  57  82 /  20  30  30  40
Tijeras.........................  57  80  59  84 /  20  40  30  50
Edgewood........................  53  79  55  83 /  20  40  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  80  53  84 /  20  40  30  50
Clines Corners..................  52  72  54  78 /  20  40  30  40
Mountainair.....................  54  77  56  81 /  20  50  30  50
Gran Quivira....................  54  76  56  81 /  30  50  40  60
Carrizozo.......................  61  76  61  82 /  40  70  40  60
Ruidoso.........................  53  68  54  74 /  50  80  30  80
Capulin.........................  51  76  54  78 /   5  20  10  40
Raton...........................  52  82  55  82 /   5  20  10  40
Springer........................  53  81  56  84 /  10  30  10  40
Las Vegas.......................  49  74  53  79 /  20  40  30  50
Clayton.........................  59  81  60  83 /   5  20  20  20
Roy.............................  56  76  58  79 /  10  30  20  30
Conchas.........................  63  80  63  86 /  30  40  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  61  75  61  82 /  40  50  30  40
Tucumcari.......................  62  79  62  83 /  40  40  40  30
Clovis..........................  63  76  63  83 /  80  50  50  40
Portales........................  62  76  63  84 /  80  60  50  40
Fort Sumner.....................  63  78  63  84 /  60  60  40  30
Roswell.........................  65  79  66  86 /  80  60  40  40
Picacho.........................  61  73  60  81 /  60  80  40  60
Elk.............................  58  73  57  80 /  60  80  30  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...44