Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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811 FXUS65 KABQ 312344 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 544 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 543 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026 - Storms with lightning and erratic wind gusts will favor locations along and west of the central mountain chain tonight, then decrease in coverage while spreading to more of the eastern plains on Tuesday. - There will be a low-to-moderate risk of flash flooding below Ruidoso-area burn scars Tuesday afternoon. The risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will spread to more of the area along and west of the central mountain chain Friday and Saturday. - Above normal high temperatures will continue the risk of heat- related illnesses across eastern New Mexico for the next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1230 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026 A rich plume of monsoon moisture will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms tonight from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward. Storms will move swiftly toward the northeast around 20-45 mph, but there will be a low risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding where cells manage to train. There will then be a downtick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday as the weakening moisture plume tilts eastward over south central and eastern parts of the forecast area, and drier air begins to move over the western third of the forecast area from the southwest. There will then be another downtick in storm coverage on Wednesday as an upper level trough crossing the Great Basin continues to steer drier air over the northwest half of the forecast area. As a result, high temperatures will trend upward over western areas Tuesday and Wednesday. Central and eastern areas will cool some Tuesday, then begin to rebound Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026 After PWATs bottom out over northwest areas around 0.50-0.75" on Wednesday, they will rebound through the end of the week as a surge of monsoon moisture works its way northward over AZ and western NM. There will be a chance of locally heavy rainfall Friday and Saturday afternoon and evening over western areas, and probably also over the Ruidoso area scars, as PWATs climb around 1.10-1.30" across the forecast area. Models vary on how well the monsoon moisture will linger over western areas on Sunday, with some suggesting an ENE to WSW ridge axis over southern NM will shift the moisture plume westward over AZ. After continued warming Thursday, the increased monsoon moisture will cause high temperatures to trend downward at the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Scattered thunderstorms continue across the central mountain chain this evening, with showers extending as far west as the AZ/NM border. Brief MVFR/IFR visibilities are likely with any direct impact to terminals from thunderstorms. Enhanced outflow winds up to 35kts from thunderstorms are likely to affect central TAF sites (KABQ/KAEG/KSAF) through 03-04z. Showers look poised to continue through at least 06z across central NM, with scattered showers persisting through at late as 12z across northern NM. MVFR ceilings are a higher concern across mountain areas through the evening and overnight hours. Afternoon thunderstorms are again expected across the area after 18z tomorrow. Outside of the usual central mountain chain thunderstorms, outflow winds from the Sacramento Mountains may push towards KROW near the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Since minimum humidities will remain above 15 percent for the next week, erratic thunderstorm outflows will continue to be the main fire weather concern each afternoon and evening. A few storms may be capable of producing erratic wind gusts near 60 mph this evening, then the risk of wet microbursts will increase again each afternoon and evening toward the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 84 58 86 / 30 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 47 84 44 84 / 60 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 54 82 54 84 / 70 10 10 5 Gallup.......................... 49 82 50 84 / 20 20 10 0 El Morro........................ 50 80 50 81 / 30 20 20 5 Grants.......................... 53 83 53 85 / 50 20 10 5 Quemado......................... 54 80 54 82 / 50 30 20 10 Magdalena....................... 59 83 59 84 / 30 50 20 30 Datil........................... 54 79 54 81 / 40 30 20 20 Reserve......................... 53 88 52 89 / 40 20 20 10 Glenwood........................ 57 93 57 94 / 30 20 20 5 Chama........................... 49 77 48 78 / 80 10 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 59 81 59 83 / 70 30 20 5 Pecos........................... 56 84 56 86 / 60 20 20 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 81 52 82 / 70 20 10 5 Red River....................... 46 72 44 73 / 60 20 10 10 Angel Fire...................... 39 78 37 79 / 60 20 10 20 Taos............................ 52 84 51 86 / 70 20 10 5 Mora............................ 52 81 50 84 / 50 30 20 20 Espanola........................ 59 89 57 90 / 70 30 20 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 84 61 86 / 60 20 20 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 87 58 88 / 60 20 20 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 92 67 93 / 50 20 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 91 65 93 / 40 20 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 93 63 95 / 40 20 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 91 67 93 / 40 20 10 0 Belen........................... 62 93 62 94 / 30 20 10 5 Bernalillo...................... 65 92 65 94 / 50 20 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 61 93 61 94 / 40 20 10 0 Corrales........................ 65 93 65 94 / 50 20 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 63 93 63 94 / 40 20 10 0 Placitas........................ 64 89 65 91 / 50 20 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 92 66 93 / 40 20 10 0 Socorro......................... 67 95 67 96 / 30 30 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 86 59 87 / 60 20 20 0 Tijeras......................... 59 86 61 87 / 50 20 20 0 Edgewood........................ 56 88 57 89 / 40 20 20 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 89 54 90 / 30 20 20 5 Clines Corners.................. 58 86 58 86 / 20 20 20 5 Mountainair..................... 56 87 57 88 / 40 20 20 5 Gran Quivira.................... 57 87 58 88 / 30 20 20 5 Carrizozo....................... 63 90 64 91 / 20 20 20 20 Ruidoso......................... 57 83 58 84 / 30 50 20 30 Capulin......................... 57 84 55 86 / 20 40 20 10 Raton........................... 54 86 51 89 / 30 50 10 10 Springer........................ 55 89 52 91 / 30 50 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 57 85 54 87 / 20 20 20 10 Clayton......................... 66 92 66 94 / 5 10 20 5 Roy............................. 62 88 59 90 / 10 30 20 5 Conchas......................... 68 97 66 98 / 5 20 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 66 92 64 93 / 10 30 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 69 97 68 98 / 0 10 20 0 Clovis.......................... 67 96 68 98 / 0 10 10 0 Portales........................ 68 97 68 99 / 0 10 10 5 Fort Sumner..................... 68 97 68 98 / 0 20 10 5 Roswell......................... 71 99 71 100 / 0 10 10 5 Picacho......................... 62 93 63 94 / 20 50 20 30 Elk............................. 59 90 60 91 / 20 50 20 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...77