Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
780 FXUS65 KABQ 232332 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 532 PM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 PM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will increase over northern New Mexico this weekend and Monday before expanding to the entire forecast area Tuesday and Wednesday. - Through Wednesday, storms will be capable of heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, especially on recent wildfire burn scars. Other areas which receive repeated rounds of rainfall will be susceptible to flooding. - Widespread rain and cloud cover will lead to cooler temperatures for the upcoming week. Wednesday may feel more like fall for many areas. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 The monsoon high has weakened considerably from where it was a couple days ago, broadly expanding over the Four Corners states. This is keeping our flow aloft very light. Moisture is fairly uniformly distributed with PWATs generally ranging between 0.8 and 1.2 inches with some higher values in the northeastern plains where last night`s weak surface boundary invaded. Better instability is found over the northern half of NM today, and this is where showers and thunderstorms will be focused through the late afternoon and evening, drifting slowly and somewhat southward with variable headings. Quite a bit of cloud debris are modeled to hang around through Sunday morning, but enough clearing and destabilization by afternoon will yield another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The upper high would weaken a bit more and slide just slightly southward, enabling convective cells to creep farther into the southwestern mountains and perhaps over the south central ranges as well Sunday. Storm motions would remain slow, especially over west central to southwestern NM closer to the upper high while storms farther north gain a subtle eastward component to their heading. Isolated heavy rain and possible flash flooding cannot be ruled out over the northern mountains, highlands, and nearby northeastern high plains, but the threat seems to be isolated enough to forego any Flash Flood Watch for Sunday. Temperatures would remain seasonable on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 The center of the upper high will not shift much into Monday, but the overall orientation will start to elongate from northwest to southeast as strong northwesterlies aloft dip into the Great Plains and MS valley. At the surface a baroclinic zone will dip into the southern reaches of these areas with east northeasterly winds filtering into northeastern and east central NM Monday. This will provide some upslope flow on the east faces of the Sangre de Cristos and perhaps some moisture/surface convergence toward the Continental Divide by late Monday afternoon into the evening when scattered to numerous storms will be favored. The surface boundary will act to cool northeastern zones by a few degrees with minimal changes elsewhere, and the boundary will stir up gusty gap/canyon winds in eastern Albuquerque, Santa Fe and other vulnerable central areas as it arrives. The upper high begins to relocate toward southeast TX Tuesday and Wednesday. This will lower pressure heights over NM while more southerly flow (both at the surface and aloft) is established. PWATs will respond upward with many areas rising above 1.0 inch, and increased coverage of more efficient rainfall will ensue. Some stable air in eastern zones could limit storm intensity, and to some degree rainfall rates there, especially on Tuesday. Elsewhere, central and western NM should see high coverage of moderate to heavy raining storms. Lots of storms could survive well into the night Tuesday night with ample cloud debris lingering into Wednesday as a more traditional south-to-north monsoon plume gets established with a weak low offshore of CA. Extensive leftover clouds will pose big caveats and uncertainties with instability and storm development on Wednesday, but overall cooler temperatures and high POPs (even if it is just more stratiform lighter rain) seem appropriate. The monsoon moisture would start to lean over more southwest to northeast on Thursday and more-so into Friday. This will introduce some drying into western zones, but should not fully erode away the moisture plume late in the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are generally forecast to persist through the TAF period, although short-lived MVFR conditions are likely in sct/num showers and storms across northern NM both this evening and again on Sunday afternoon. Highest probabilities for thunderstorm impacts are at KLVS this evening and KGUP Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Storms over the northern half of New Mexico are gaining coverage this weekend with all cells growing more capable of producing soaking rainfall, especially over high terrain northern zones. Storm coverage will begin to expand over more of western and central high terrain areas into Monday, and onto remaining parts of northern and central New Mexico Tuesday into Wednesday. This Tuesday and Wednesday time frame will be the best opportunity for wetting rainfall, even in far western NM which has been mostly void of appreciable rainfall so far this monsoon. Humidity will trend up significantly these days with overnight recoveries of 80 percent or better in all areas both Wednesday morning and Thursday morning. Humidity will start to subside in western zones Thursday afternoon into Friday, but remaining areas will still observe elevated humidity values with decent chances for additional wetting rainfall, albeit more scattered or splotchy in nature. Prevailing winds will turn a bit gusty Monday into Monday night when a weak frontal boundary spill into central areas from the east northeast with localized gusts of 25 to 45 mph possible. Otherwise, wind concerns will mostly originate from brief-lived thunderstorm outflows. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 67 89 64 87 / 70 60 60 40 Dulce........................... 51 85 51 83 / 80 80 80 70 Cuba............................ 57 84 56 82 / 70 80 70 70 Gallup.......................... 57 86 56 85 / 70 70 60 50 El Morro........................ 57 81 57 81 / 60 80 60 70 Grants.......................... 58 85 56 84 / 60 80 60 70 Quemado......................... 59 84 59 84 / 50 60 50 70 Magdalena....................... 63 84 63 84 / 10 40 30 50 Datil........................... 57 81 57 82 / 30 60 30 60 Reserve......................... 56 89 57 88 / 30 40 30 50 Glenwood........................ 60 92 60 92 / 10 30 10 30 Chama........................... 49 78 49 76 / 80 90 80 80 Los Alamos...................... 60 80 59 78 / 60 80 70 80 Pecos........................... 55 81 55 79 / 40 60 70 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 79 53 75 / 80 90 80 90 Red River....................... 44 71 45 67 / 80 90 80 90 Angel Fire...................... 43 74 43 70 / 70 80 80 90 Taos............................ 54 81 54 78 / 70 80 70 80 Mora............................ 50 77 50 74 / 70 70 70 80 Espanola........................ 59 87 58 85 / 60 70 70 70 Santa Fe........................ 60 84 59 82 / 40 60 70 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 88 58 86 / 40 60 60 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 88 66 88 / 30 40 60 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 89 67 89 / 30 40 50 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 91 61 91 / 20 40 40 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 90 66 90 / 30 40 50 40 Belen........................... 66 92 66 92 / 10 30 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 65 90 64 89 / 40 50 60 50 Bosque Farms.................... 62 91 61 91 / 20 30 40 30 Corrales........................ 66 91 64 90 / 30 50 60 50 Los Lunas....................... 64 91 63 91 / 20 30 40 30 Placitas........................ 64 88 63 86 / 30 50 50 50 Rio Rancho...................... 67 89 66 89 / 30 50 60 50 Socorro......................... 67 93 68 94 / 10 20 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 83 59 82 / 30 50 50 60 Tijeras......................... 62 85 62 84 / 30 40 50 60 Edgewood........................ 58 85 58 84 / 20 40 40 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 86 55 86 / 20 40 40 50 Clines Corners.................. 57 81 58 79 / 20 30 40 50 Mountainair..................... 58 85 59 85 / 10 30 20 30 Gran Quivira.................... 58 84 59 85 / 10 20 20 30 Carrizozo....................... 62 85 62 86 / 5 20 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 52 78 54 79 / 0 20 5 30 Capulin......................... 53 78 53 72 / 60 60 80 80 Raton........................... 53 81 53 75 / 60 80 70 80 Springer........................ 54 86 54 80 / 60 60 70 80 Las Vegas....................... 54 81 54 78 / 50 60 60 80 Clayton......................... 60 87 60 79 / 40 30 70 50 Roy............................. 58 84 58 79 / 50 40 60 70 Conchas......................... 63 91 64 88 / 40 20 40 50 Santa Rosa...................... 62 88 63 87 / 30 20 30 40 Tucumcari....................... 62 89 62 86 / 30 10 30 30 Clovis.......................... 64 91 66 90 / 10 10 20 20 Portales........................ 64 91 66 91 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 65 90 66 91 / 20 10 20 20 Roswell......................... 67 93 68 95 / 5 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 61 87 62 89 / 5 10 0 20 Elk............................. 57 82 58 84 / 0 20 0 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...11