652
FXUS65 KABQ 081123 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
523 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms will produce cloud-to-ground
  lightning, erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding,
  mostly across the high terrain and nearby lower elevations. The
  overall storm coverage looks to be highest on Wednesday, before
  lowering Thursday and Friday.

- Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern and
  central New Mexico where there is an increased risk of heat
  related illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 129 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The upper high will shift its primary centroid farther east today,
but the whole feature will elongate on a west-east axis, covering
most of the southern states. This will cause winds aloft to relax a
bit more over NM, keeping a light westerly component in the northern
half of the state while the southern half hosts more of a weak
easterly component aloft. Subtle drying will occur over the
northwest and north central zones, but overall PWATs will tend to
range from 0.8 inch in these areas up to 1.0 to 1.1 inch in the
lower elevations of central and eastern NM. Coupling this with
instability, the southwestern and west central mountains should
easily produce storms this afternoon while the central mountain
chain also observes an increase in activity today. The northeast
plains and nearby highlands would also likely see scattered storms
as a weak surface boundary eases into Colfax and Union counties,
providing convergence and upslope. Minimal activity is modeled in
our southeastern and far northwestern zones due to less instability.
Given the orientation of the high and upper level winds, storms
today will slow down, increasing the heavy downpour threat. This is
especially concerning over the Ruidoso area, as many CAMs support
development right on top of the burn scars with the HRRR even
indicating subsequent cold pools leading to additional development
there through the mid afternoon. A Flash Flood Watch will be issued
to account for this. Otherwise, a near persistence temperature
forecast will hold for most of the forecast area today.

Into Wednesday, upper level high pressure will continue to blanket
the southern states, but a new centroid will leapfrog westward into
AZ with heights rising to 596-597 decameters over western NM. This
would bring a slight warming to western zones, but the previously
mentioned surface boundary in northeastern NM will gain a
reinforcing push farther into the state. This will not only allow
temperatures to fall a couple to a few degrees, but it will also
continue to act as a broader mechanism for convective initiation due
to upslope and surface/moisture convergence. Elsewhere, it will be
somewhat similar to today with the southwestern to west central
mountains creating storms, as well as the central mountain chain,
all of which will slowly produce outflows into nearby lower
elevations which could cause new cell formation through Wednesday
evening. Additional drier air and lower PWATs will wrap into
northwestern zones, inhibiting storms there Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 129 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

On Thursday, the high centers up over AZ with heights only dropping
by a decameter or two. This placement will continue to allow drier
air to spill into NM from the northwest, and PWATs are projected to
fall to 0.5 inch in many northwestern zones with an increasing
gradient toward the southeastern zones where readings would hold
around 1.2 to 1.3 inches. This drying and the washing out of the
previous day`s surface boundary will really limit storms over much
of the northern half of the forecast area with cells most likely to
initiate in the Gila and Sacramentos while struggling to move far
off of the high terrain. High temperatures would keep gaining a
couple of degrees in western zones on Thursday, pushing them 5 to 10
degrees above climatology.

High pressure will not move much on Friday, holding near or to the
southwest of NM, and the drier westerly flow will continue to filter
southeastward over many zones. PWATs would fall to around 0.5 to 0.8
inch for most zones, the exception being the far southern and
western tier of the forecast area where moisture would hold or even
begin to pivot back in (far west). This will put the kibosh on
storms over much of the forecast area while rebounding temperatures
expand eastward, climbing 5 to almost 15 degrees above normal.

High pressure looks to slide eastward along the southern border of
NM into Saturday before moving into central TX on Sunday. As this
occurs, another deep low will enter the northwestern states, setting
up a more moist west southwest flow into NM, as deep subtropical
moisture will be staging over the Gulf of CA. The moisture will be
heavily modified and subdued by the time it returns to NM, but it
would sufficiently reintroduce storm chances over the high terrain
this weekend. The northwest states low will be racing into the
northern Great Plains by Monday, but essentially the same trend
looks to hold for NM with a faint plume of monsoon moisture
stretching from the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts northeastward
into our northern mountains. Temperatures would reduce a couple to a
few degrees each day this weekend into Monday with western zones
falling close to average while departures in eastern zones undergo
shrinking departures from normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A new batch of thunderstorms will redevelop over the high terrain
of interior New Mexico, leaning into the northeastern highlands
and plains by late afternoon and early this evening. Storms will
move into nearby lower elevations during the evening, but
generally are not forecast to impact northwestern or southeastern
quadrants of the state. Storms will produce lightning, small hail,
gusty downburst winds, and heavy downpours that will reduce
ceilings and visibility for brief periods. A lone strong to severe
storm cannot be ruled out near the Colorado border (near and east
of KRTN). Showers and thunderstorms will mostly die off by
midnight, but a few lingering batches of activity will persist
into the early morning hours Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 AM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The best moisture and instability today will stretch from the
southwestern and south central mountains of NM onto the northern
peaks and northeastern plains. This will lead to storms multiplying
over the central mountain chain and northeastern zones when compared
to yesterday`s coverage. Storm motions will tend to slow down today,
opening the possibilities to heavy downpours and locally heavy
rainfall, but storms will largely remain discrete with wetting
rainfall remaining spotty.

High pressure aloft will shift westward on Wednesday with storms
concentrating over the west central and southwestern mountains, as
well as the central mountain chain and the northeastern plains of NM
again as a moist backdoor front sags in. Forecast models have not
been overly consistent with this feature, but there is potential
that the front could send a convectively-aided outflow boundary into
central NM Wednesday night through Thursday morning, inducing gusty
winds that accelerate through gaps and canyons. Other than this
episode, wind concerns will primarily come from localized storm
outflows which will be of much shorter durations.

Drier air is still modeled to stifle storm coverage on Thursday
and even more on Friday. This will lead to increasing temperatures
with Friday`s readings being the hottest, which will cause
humidity to plummet. Minimum afternoon RH will fall to 10 to 20%
over much of the northwestern quadrant of NM on Thursday and over
a large, sweeping majority of the forecast area on Friday.
However, monsoon moisture is projected to return in a modified and
somewhat subdued fashion this weekend into early next week,
leading to isolated to scattered storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  90  60  93  55 /   5   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  88  48  90  47 /  10   5   0   0
Cuba............................  85  58  87  53 /  10  10   5   0
Gallup..........................  86  56  88  50 /  20  10  10   0
El Morro........................  82  55  84  51 /  40  20  50  10
Grants..........................  84  58  87  53 /  40  20  20  10
Quemado.........................  82  57  84  56 /  50  20  60  40
Magdalena.......................  83  62  84  61 /  30  20  50  40
Datil...........................  79  57  81  56 /  50  30  50  30
Reserve.........................  87  58  88  60 /  50  30  60  40
Glenwood........................  93  63  93  63 /  40  30  60  50
Chama...........................  82  51  84  48 /  10   5   5   0
Los Alamos......................  83  60  85  59 /  30  30  20  20
Pecos...........................  85  58  86  55 /  40  30  60  20
Cerro/Questa....................  83  54  84  52 /  30  30  20  10
Red River.......................  78  47  75  45 /  40  30  40  10
Angel Fire......................  80  44  78  42 /  50  20  60  10
Taos............................  87  54  88  50 /  20  20  10  10
Mora............................  82  54  83  52 /  70  20  70  20
Espanola........................  91  62  92  60 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Fe........................  87  62  86  60 /  20  20  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  89  61  89  59 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  66  91  66 /  20  20  10  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  68  92  66 /  20  20  10  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  68  94  66 /  10  20   5  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  68  93  66 /  10  20   5  30
Belen...........................  93  66  94  64 /  10  20   0  40
Bernalillo......................  94  67  94  65 /  10  20  10  30
Bosque Farms....................  93  66  93  64 /  10  20   5  40
Corrales........................  94  68  94  65 /  10  20  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  93  67  94  65 /  10  20   5  40
Placitas........................  90  65  90  63 /  20  20  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  93  67  93  65 /  10  20  10  20
Socorro.........................  94  70  95  68 /  20  20  10  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  60  83  58 /  20  20  30  40
Tijeras.........................  87  63  87  59 /  20  20  40  40
Edgewood........................  88  60  88  56 /  30  20  50  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  59  90  56 /  30  20  50  30
Clines Corners..................  86  60  86  56 /  40  40  50  40
Mountainair.....................  86  60  86  57 /  30  20  60  50
Gran Quivira....................  86  61  87  58 /  30  30  60  50
Carrizozo.......................  88  65  89  63 /  30  10  60  60
Ruidoso.........................  80  58  81  58 /  60   5  60  50
Capulin.........................  85  57  81  54 /  60  40  60  50
Raton...........................  88  55  85  53 /  60  30  70  40
Springer........................  90  56  88  54 /  60  30  60  30
Las Vegas.......................  85  57  84  54 /  50  30  70  30
Clayton.........................  92  65  87  61 /  20  20  60  40
Roy.............................  90  62  88  58 /  20  40  60  40
Conchas.........................  97  68  96  64 /   5  30  50  60
Santa Rosa......................  93  67  93  63 /  10  20  50  70
Tucumcari.......................  97  71  96  65 /   0  20  50  70
Clovis..........................  97  68  97  66 /   0   5  10  50
Portales........................  97  69  97  67 /   0   5   5  40
Fort Sumner.....................  96  69  97  65 /   0  10  30  70
Roswell.........................  98  70  98  69 /   0   0   0  40
Picacho.........................  92  64  92  64 /  10   0  20  50
Elk.............................  88  60  89  60 /  30   5  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this afternoon
for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52