Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
159 FXUS65 KABQ 120916 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 316 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 311 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025 - Winds trend stronger today as a fast-moving Pacific storm moves through. Light rain/snow will favor western areas while winds and fire weather concerns return to east central NM. - A potentially historical, multi-hazard spring storm system will impact the region Thursday through Saturday. The main hazards will be widespread strong to damaging wind gusts, increased fire danger and blowing dust in the east, and snow that will favor the western and northern mountains where strong winds will create blizzard-like conditions. - There is moderate confidence that the active weather pattern will continue after the weekend, with more chances for precipitation, strong winds, critical fire weather and blowing dust early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 311 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025 A very active weather pattern will continue through the rest of the week. Breezy to windy conditions occur today across the southeast parts of the state, with critical fire conditions accompanying the winds. A very powerful spring storm begins to impact the region Thursday evening and continue through Saturday. Strong to damaging wind gusts with blowing dust are likely across much of central and eastern New Mexico, especially Friday afternoon. The storm will also bring snow to the northern and western mountains, and the high wind gusts may create blizzard like conditions with blowing snow. Another round of light snow and blowing snow is likely to occur on Saturday. Conditions improve Sunday and Monday before another potentially significant spring storm system brings more strong winds and associated hazards on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 311 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025 A very dry airmass in place over central and western NM early this morning will give way to strong moisture advection thru sunrise as a moist H5 wave enters from AZ. Unfortunately, rain and snow currently over AZ will be mostly wrung out along the Mogollon Rim thru late this morning. Other than light QPF amounts <0.15" on west-facing slopes, the main impact will be higher humidity and increased cloud cover early today. The H5 wave will move quickly east of NM this afternoon with large-scale subsidence and more dry air spreading across NM. Northwest winds will increase for the entire region, especially eastern NM where gusts of 30-40 mph are expected. The latest NBM peak wind gust probability >40 mph is 40-60% across the eastern plains and >80% in the area from near Clines Corners to Ruidoso and Dunken. Humidity will fall below 15% in parts of this same area so the wildfire risk will be elevated today. Max temps will trend several degrees cooler than Tuesday but still be quite mild for central and eastern NM. Flow aloft will back from northwest to southwest tonight as a moist subtropical jet strengthens over northwest Mexico in response to a powerful 140kt speed max approaching from the Gulf of Alaska. An elongated H5 trough axis along the West Coast will begin to deepen to around 540dm near Las Vegas thru Thursday afternoon. Surface low pressure along the Front Range will deepen to near 990mb Thursday as 700-500mb layer winds strengthen to between 45-55kt over NM. Warm advection and deep mixing will lead to widespread windy conditions with large areas of blowing dust likely. Critical humidity values below 15% will also elevate the risk for wildland fire spread. The main event begins Thursday night with High Wind Watches and Winter Storm Watches on the way (see long-term discussion for details). && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 311 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025 A significant spring storm begins to unleash its full force starting Thursday night and continuing into Friday. A potent upper level trough digs into western CONUS and across NM beginning late Thursday. Current forecast 500mb heights for this eventual closed low bottom out around 538dm as it crosses the state, which would be a daily record low and in the lowest percentiles of climatology, signaling the strength of the storm. As the trough axis crosses the state, very strong 700mb winds in excess of 80kts traverse across the southern portion of New Mexico. While the passage of the trough initially occurs overnight, strong low to mid level winds are likely to be able to combat radiational cooling and keep a fairly well defined mixed layer near the surface as indicated by forecast soundings. This allows the strong winds to mix to the surface even during the overnight hours. As the upper low pushes through, downward forcing on the backside of the trough, combined with the development of a powerful surface low across eastern CO and western KS, and surface heating leading to more a more substantial mixed layer will all work to produce strong to damaging winds across much of the eastern plains through a majority of the day Friday. High Wind Watches have been issued for these areas, where gusts of 60- 70mph are likely to be widespread, with gusts of 80mph cannot be ruled out. As a result of widespread high wind gusts, blowing dust will add another layer of impacts to many locations, especially in and around Roswell. Hazardous to dangerous crosswinds will be present on roadways across the eastern half of the forecast area. On top of high winds, light to moderate accumulating snow is forecast across the northern and western mountains. This snowfall will precede the high winds initially across the area and will have high SLR of around 15:1. When the high winds hit areas with snowpack and snowfall, blowing snow becomes a hazard as well. Blizzard-like conditions will be possible in the northern and western mountains, creating hazardous travel conditions. To summarize, multiple hazards are on the table with this storm system including hazardous to dangerous crosswinds, very difficult to impossible travel conditions in blowing dust/snow, and minor to moderate impactful winter weather. Downed power lines and trees may also cause additional impacts through the duration of this storm. On the backside of this first storm, a second, weaker trough pushes into the state Saturday, bringing a round of light snowfall to the northern and western mountains. Coupled with snowpack and the additional snowfall and a return of windy conditions, blowing snow may return as a hazard on Saturday. Conditions rapidly recover Sunday and Monday before another storm system is forecast to move through the area Tuesday. Ensemble clusters are varying in their timing and strength of this system, but a general consensus is that another high wind event is on the table for Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 PM MDT Tue Mar 11 2025 A storm system approaching from the west will spread MVFR cigs into far western NM after 3am with snow showers around sunrise. Mt obscurations and localized IFR are expected near the high terrain along the AZ/NM border and the Mogollon Rim. Precip will dissipate quickly after sunrise with lingering mid level cigs spreading into central NM thru the early afternoon. Meanwhile, northwest winds will increase thru Wednesday morning as the storm system shifts quickly eastward into west TX. Gusts of 20 to 30KT will be common across the region with local gusts up to 40KT from near Ruidoso to Roswell and Clovis. BLDU is likely to produce periods of IFR at KROW Wednesday afternoon. Northwest winds will decrease after sunset Wednesday then become westerly and southwesterly overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY... Strong northwest winds and subcritical humidity values between 10 and 15% will most likely occur over the east-central plains today. Marginally critical conditions are possible for areas farther north and west this afternoon but the duration will be limited. Strong southwest winds will develop Thursday with more widespread humidity values below 15% across the lower Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Thursday. A powerful storm system will then force an intense Pacific cold front across the area Friday. Damaging west wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph are expected for eastern NM where more critical fire weather conditions are possible. Humidity values are higher given the colder temps moving into the area so confidence is not high at this time. However, any fire starts today or Thursday will be hard to control with the extreme winds on Friday. Farther north and west, snow and blowing snow are expected in the higher terrain with several inches possible on west-facing slopes and ridges. Northwest winds will take over Saturday with more snow possible for the northern and western high terrain. The eastern plains will remain windy but humidity values will likely trend even higher. Lighter winds may return Sunday with drier air and warming temperatures. Yet another fire growing pattern may develop over the region again next Monday and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 32 59 28 / 20 0 40 100 Dulce........................... 54 22 55 20 / 10 0 50 100 Cuba............................ 53 26 58 22 / 20 0 20 100 Gallup.......................... 54 23 58 19 / 20 0 10 100 El Morro........................ 50 24 57 21 / 30 0 10 100 Grants.......................... 55 21 61 21 / 20 0 10 90 Quemado......................... 53 26 58 22 / 40 0 10 100 Magdalena....................... 57 33 63 26 / 5 0 0 80 Datil........................... 53 28 58 23 / 10 0 0 90 Reserve......................... 58 26 59 20 / 50 0 30 100 Glenwood........................ 60 33 64 25 / 60 0 40 100 Chama........................... 48 23 49 18 / 5 0 40 100 Los Alamos...................... 54 32 58 27 / 5 0 10 90 Pecos........................... 55 31 58 24 / 0 0 0 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 27 54 23 / 0 0 5 70 Red River....................... 48 23 50 17 / 5 0 5 70 Angel Fire...................... 49 22 52 18 / 5 0 5 60 Taos............................ 56 23 57 22 / 0 0 5 70 Mora............................ 54 26 59 22 / 0 0 0 60 Espanola........................ 62 27 64 30 / 0 0 0 90 Santa Fe........................ 55 32 58 26 / 5 0 10 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 29 62 27 / 0 0 5 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 60 37 66 33 / 5 0 5 90 Albuquerque Heights............. 63 35 68 33 / 5 0 0 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 33 70 33 / 5 0 0 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 34 68 33 / 5 0 0 90 Belen........................... 65 30 71 32 / 5 0 0 90 Bernalillo...................... 63 33 69 33 / 5 0 5 90 Bosque Farms.................... 65 30 70 32 / 5 0 0 80 Corrales........................ 64 34 69 33 / 5 0 0 90 Los Lunas....................... 64 31 70 33 / 5 0 0 80 Placitas........................ 59 34 65 31 / 5 0 5 90 Rio Rancho...................... 63 34 68 33 / 5 0 0 90 Socorro......................... 67 35 73 34 / 5 0 0 80 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 30 60 27 / 5 0 5 90 Tijeras......................... 58 32 64 28 / 5 0 10 90 Edgewood........................ 58 28 65 27 / 0 0 0 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 23 65 25 / 0 0 0 80 Clines Corners.................. 54 29 59 25 / 0 0 0 60 Mountainair..................... 58 29 63 26 / 5 0 0 80 Gran Quivira.................... 58 30 62 27 / 0 0 0 80 Carrizozo....................... 62 36 64 30 / 5 0 0 80 Ruidoso......................... 55 38 58 25 / 5 0 0 70 Capulin......................... 58 29 62 29 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 62 26 66 29 / 0 0 0 20 Springer........................ 64 26 68 31 / 0 0 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 59 28 62 27 / 0 0 0 40 Clayton......................... 68 35 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 64 30 67 34 / 0 0 0 5 Conchas......................... 72 34 73 38 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 65 37 70 34 / 0 0 0 20 Tucumcari....................... 72 36 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 72 38 74 37 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 72 37 75 38 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 69 36 74 37 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 74 39 78 41 / 0 0 0 20 Picacho......................... 66 38 70 32 / 0 0 0 40 Elk............................. 63 36 68 28 / 0 0 0 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-106- 123>126. High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for NMZ212-215-221>225-227>239. Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for NMZ210-213-214. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ126. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for NMZ226-240. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...42