Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
958 FXUS65 KABQ 170615 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1215 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - A Freeze Warning is in effect for several northern and western locations into Friday morning for the first freeze of the season. - Dry conditions will prevail from Friday through the weekend with a slow warming trend. - Windy conditions are forecast Monday across east-central NM where there is a low chance (20-30%) for winds to reach advisory criteria. - A Pacific low will bring chances for precipitation from late Tuesday night through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1207 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 The upper low is pulling northeast into the northern US Plains, with a trough axis extending back to the southwest over UT/CO and the Desert Southwest. The westerlies are bringing progressively drier air into the region and PWATs continue a dramatic downtrend from near record high values to below normal. This is reflected in the surface dewpoint temperatures, which are 20-30 degrees lower than 24hrs ago in the RGV. Efficient radiational cooling is taking hold and temperatures are plummeting into the 30s and 40s across much of western and central NM, with the previously issued Freeze Warning on track. The upper level trough hanging back to our west will swing east across the southern Rockies and NM today/tonight, bringing gusty west-southwest winds by afternoon. Another relatively cold night is on tap Friday night, with an additional shot at freezing temperatures for the zones currently included in the Freeze Warning. PWATs will bottom-out on Saturday, with dry and sunny conditions bringing an ideal fall day for all of northern and central NM. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1207 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A warming trend is in play for Sun/Mon as a ridge pumps up over the region on Sunday and and then flattens-out on Monday as the westerlies trend up due to an upper level trough racing east toward the northern/central Rockies. Strong winds aloft will hit the mountain tops Sunday night and then work down to the adjacent eastern highlands, bringing windy conditions going into Monday. A backdoor cold front is forecast to move down the eastern plains Monday night and bring some relative cooling going into Tuesday while the rest of the forecast area stays on the warmer-side, with daytime temperatures generally a few degrees above normal. An upper level ridge will move quickly east over the area Tuesday night and give way to increasing westerlies in advance of an approaching Pacific low. The Pacific low will bring sufficient moisture for precipitation chances late Tuesday night through Thursday as it moves slowly east over northern NM and southern CO, but is a relatively weak feature and is not modeled to be a significant precipitation-maker at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. West and southwest winds will get gusty Friday afternoon, but otherwise winds will be light. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1207 AM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A warming and drying trend is forecast through the weekend and into Monday. Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast Monday ahead of a cold front. A Pacific low will approach late Tuesday, then move over the area Wednesday into Thursday and bring an increase in humidity and chances for wetting precipitation, especially to the northern mountains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 35 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 59 22 63 26 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 59 30 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 61 28 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 60 32 64 35 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 64 31 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 62 32 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 66 39 68 41 / 5 5 0 0 Datil........................... 63 33 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 69 33 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 72 38 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 55 25 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 36 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 59 36 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 58 28 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 56 27 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 56 21 60 22 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 61 29 64 30 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 62 34 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 66 34 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 60 35 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 36 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 39 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 40 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 70 39 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 42 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 70 37 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 69 39 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 69 36 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 69 39 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 69 37 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 65 37 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 68 40 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 73 43 76 43 / 0 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 36 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 65 39 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 65 35 67 30 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 65 34 67 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 61 36 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 64 36 65 34 / 0 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 64 36 66 33 / 0 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 69 43 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 64 42 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 63 34 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 66 32 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 68 33 71 31 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 64 35 69 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 70 44 72 35 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 67 37 71 34 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 74 41 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 71 44 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 75 43 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 79 48 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 80 49 79 39 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 77 47 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 81 49 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 77 45 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 74 43 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ201-216-217- 222-228-241. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11