Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
583 FXUS65 KABQ 302037 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 237 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 132 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - A monsoon moisture plume will remain over the area through Friday with locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible, especially around burn scars, urban areas, locations with saturated ground, and poorly drained areas. Rainfall rates will exceed 2 inches per hour with a few of the stronger storms, especially along and east of the central mountain chain. - A high pressure system will build overhead Sunday through Tuesday producing moderate heat risk in many lower-elevation locations, except for locally major heat Risk to the southeast plains including Roswell. - After a sharp downtick in thunderstorm coverage Saturday, then little if any precipitation Sunday and Monday, monsoon moisture and the coverage of showers and thunderstorms should begin to increase again mainly west of the Rio Grande on Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 132 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025 With rich monsoon moisture in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening, and again Thursday afternoon and evening. A moist backdoor front will push upslope into the Sacramento Mountains this evening, where it will probably stall through tonight, triggering thunderstorms with an overnight burn scar flash flood risk around Ruidoso. Models have fair agreement on slow-moving storms potentially producing flash flooding over the east central plains tonight, as a disturbance tracks southeastward over northeast and east central NM. Isolated flash flooding will also be possible across northeast areas tonight, but models generally hit east central areas harder; especially after midnight. On Thursday, the heaviest rain is forecast over mountain areas with a moderate-to-high risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars. High temperatures on Thursday will generally vary from a few to around 14 degrees below 1991-2020 averages along and east of the central mountain chain, and up to 6 degrees above average farther west. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 132 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The mid-level high pressure system that has mainly been east of NM is forecast to re-center over southern AZ Thursday night and Friday, then migrate northeastward over NM early in the coming week. Once southwest of NM, the high will steer drier air over the forecast area from the northwest with decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms starting Friday, then especially Saturday. The drier air may not reach as far east as the central mountain chain on Friday, so the burn scar flash flood threat will probably continue to be at least moderate that day before lowering significantly on Saturday. Once the high pressure system arrives overhead Sunday and Monday, it will continue to build potentially reaching 600 dam at 500 mb by Tuesday night. This will result in high temperatures a few to 10 degrees above 30-year averages Sunday through Tuesday, except for some readings near to a little below average from Tucumcari northward on Monday behind a backdoor cold front. Few if any storms are forecast under the high pressure system on Sunday and Monday. However, a disturbance embedded in the periphery of the ridge is forecast to track northward over western NM on Tuesday returning scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms to the forecast mainly west of the Rio Grande. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with wet microbursts and heavy rainfall, will develop along and east of the continental divide this afternoon and evening. Spottier activity is expected farther west across west central and northwest NM. After midnight, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast east of the continental divide, except for numerous cells over east central areas. Isolated showers and storms may linger on the far eastern plains into early Thursday morning. Also, late tonight until mid morning Thursday, there may be a few patches of low clouds producing MVFR and IFR conditions over the northeast and east central plains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Rich monsoon moisture will favor west central areas east and northeastward for wetting precipitation and near to below average temperatures through the end of the work week. As the mid-level high pressure system re-centers over southern AZ at the end of the week, it will steer drier air over the forecast area with decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms from the northwest Friday and especially Saturday. The upper high will build overhead Sunday through Monday with little or no precip, except for maybe a dry storm or virga shower over the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains or the West Central Basin and Range each afternoon. The upper high is forecast to shift over eastern NM on Tuesday as a disturbance embedded in the periphery of the ridge moves northward over western NM returning monsoon moisture and the chance for wetting precipitation to the forecast mainly west of the Rio Grande. High temperatures during the first half of the week will mostly rise a few to several degrees above average with the greatest departures over southern parts of the forecast area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 94 64 92 / 20 10 30 5 Dulce........................... 47 89 48 87 / 40 50 60 40 Cuba............................ 54 86 54 85 / 60 50 70 40 Gallup.......................... 52 90 53 90 / 20 30 30 20 El Morro........................ 54 85 54 85 / 30 60 60 60 Grants.......................... 56 88 56 87 / 30 60 60 60 Quemado......................... 57 87 57 85 / 40 70 60 70 Magdalena....................... 61 84 60 83 / 50 70 60 60 Datil........................... 55 83 55 82 / 50 80 50 70 Reserve......................... 54 91 54 90 / 40 80 50 70 Glenwood........................ 59 95 58 94 / 50 80 50 60 Chama........................... 47 81 46 80 / 50 60 70 60 Los Alamos...................... 57 81 57 79 / 60 70 60 60 Pecos........................... 54 79 55 80 / 50 70 70 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 81 52 80 / 70 80 70 70 Red River....................... 44 71 44 71 / 60 80 70 80 Angel Fire...................... 39 73 40 73 / 60 80 70 80 Taos............................ 51 82 50 81 / 60 70 70 60 Mora............................ 49 75 49 76 / 60 80 70 70 Espanola........................ 57 89 57 87 / 60 60 70 40 Santa Fe........................ 57 82 58 82 / 60 60 70 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 85 57 85 / 60 60 60 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 89 64 87 / 60 60 70 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 90 63 89 / 50 50 60 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 93 63 92 / 50 50 60 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 91 63 90 / 50 50 60 30 Belen........................... 62 92 61 91 / 50 50 50 30 Bernalillo...................... 64 92 62 90 / 50 50 60 40 Bosque Farms.................... 62 92 61 90 / 50 50 50 30 Corrales........................ 65 93 63 91 / 50 50 60 40 Los Lunas....................... 63 92 62 91 / 50 50 50 20 Placitas........................ 62 88 61 86 / 60 60 60 40 Rio Rancho...................... 64 91 62 90 / 50 50 60 40 Socorro......................... 65 93 65 92 / 50 60 50 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 83 56 82 / 50 60 60 50 Tijeras......................... 59 84 58 82 / 50 60 60 50 Edgewood........................ 55 83 54 82 / 50 60 50 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 83 53 84 / 50 60 50 40 Clines Corners.................. 54 76 54 77 / 50 60 50 40 Mountainair..................... 56 81 56 82 / 50 60 50 50 Gran Quivira.................... 56 80 56 81 / 50 60 50 50 Carrizozo....................... 62 85 62 85 / 40 60 30 50 Ruidoso......................... 55 76 56 76 / 30 70 20 60 Capulin......................... 52 75 53 77 / 70 60 70 60 Raton........................... 52 80 54 81 / 60 70 60 60 Springer........................ 54 82 56 83 / 50 70 60 60 Las Vegas....................... 53 77 53 78 / 50 70 60 60 Clayton......................... 59 78 59 80 / 70 30 60 30 Roy............................. 56 78 58 79 / 50 50 60 40 Conchas......................... 62 84 63 87 / 60 40 50 30 Santa Rosa...................... 60 82 60 84 / 60 50 50 30 Tucumcari....................... 61 81 60 83 / 60 30 50 20 Clovis.......................... 65 88 63 88 / 50 20 40 20 Portales........................ 65 88 63 90 / 40 20 40 20 Fort Sumner..................... 65 87 64 89 / 60 30 40 20 Roswell......................... 69 92 69 93 / 30 20 10 10 Picacho......................... 61 83 62 85 / 30 40 20 30 Elk............................. 58 82 59 83 / 20 50 10 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ226-232>235-237. Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-229-239. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...44