Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
162 FXUS65 KABQ 102340 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 540 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 - A one-two punch of moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla and Tropical Storm Raymond will bring daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and west of the central mountain chain, into the middle of next week. - Flooding of small creeks, streams and arroyos as well as low- lying areas will be a concern in areas with persistent rainfall. Elevated flows in main stem rivers are also possible. A Flood Watch is in effect for Farmington and the Four Corners area through Saturday afternoon. - Below normal temperatures will be common across western NM through Sunday, but a back door cold front on Monday will cool temperatures below normal across central and eastern NM as well. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 156 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Moderate to occasionally heavy showers will continue to impact northwest NM through the overnight hours as moisture associated with Tropical Storm Priscilla continues to be drawn northward. Instability will be lacking, thus thunderstorms will be few, but not impossible. PWATs across northwest NM are currently around 1.1 inches, or greater than the 99.5 percentile for this time of year. Therefore, even though we will not see the typical heavy rainfall rates activity in thunderstorms, the showers that occur will be exceptionally efficient at producing rainfall. Showers that look otherwise benign on radar may actually produce heavy rainfall. The main vort max associated with the then decayed Priscilla will cross northwest NM early Saturday morning through mid day. As this passes, a line or broken line of showers will cross western and central NM from west to east. Then, there will be additional showers that develops behind the main line. Again, all of this should mostly be shower activity, but a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially toward the afternoon hours when there will be slightly more instability with daytime heating. The majority of rainfall will be from the Central Mountain Chain westward, though it`s likely some lighter rainfall amounts will make it over to the eastern plains. Rainfall amounts through Saturday afternoon should mostly be between 0.25" and 0.75" but a few areas should pick up a little over an inch with the heavier or more persistent activity. The Flood Watch in effect for the Northwest Plateau will remain as is. Currently not confident enough to expand it given fast storm motions, but later shifts may expand it if they can hone in on areas that will receive persistent or repeated rounds of rainfall. The cloud cover and precipitation will keep overnight low temperatures warmer, both tonight and Saturday night, but daytime high temperatures cooler. Can`t rule out some patchy fog overnight again tonight, and again Saturday night after more widespread rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 156 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 The moisture associated with what will be left of Priscilla will have exited Saturday night as the deep low/trough near the PacNW slides inland increasing west-southwest flow across northern NM. This west-sw flow will bring drier air aloft across much of northern NM on Sunday and will limit the amount of precipitation for northern NM considerably. Meanwhile, moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Raymond will be moving into southern NM, and perhaps as far north and I-40. Precipitation should linger Saturday night into Sunday morning across southern reaches of the CWA. Of particular concern is the HRRR that depicts some heavier rainfall along our southern CWA boundary stretching from Glenwood to Ruidoso prior to sunrise Sunday. 90th+ PWATs will still be common during this time in this area. Showers and thunderstorms will re-develop/expand Sunday afternoon, especially near and south of Highway 60. A Flood Watch may be needed for the Ruidoso area burn scars. The main vort max associated with TS Raymond looks to move across southern NM early Monday, but all of the moisture associated with Raymond across southern NM will be drawn northward through the day Monday as the next west coast upper low dives southward, increasing southwesterly flow over NM. Meanwhile at the surface, a backdoor cold front will push through eastern NM Sunday night and early Monday, before pushing through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain during the day. There will be drier air moving into eastern NM behind the front, but the front itself will be a focus for precipitation as it shifts westward, especially as the mid level moisture associated with Raymond shifts northward. All this to say that showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will expand across much of central and western NM Monday. With PWATs above the 97th percentile, showers and any thunderstorms will again be very efficient rainfall producers. Several models are suggesting an increase in activity Monday night through Tuesday morning as the final vort max/disturbance slides northeastward across the state. The aforementioned upper low will begin to shift eastward over the Great Basin on Tuesday, and modest lift ahead of this feature will keep some showers and thunderstorms going over NM through Tuesday afternoon. The upper low will eject northeastward on Wednesday and enough moisture will remain across NM for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, but coverage will start to dwindle. As the low pulls farther away on Thursday, precipitation coverage should decrease further. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for MVFR conditions in iso/sct showers and storms this evening at KGUP and KFMN, then across much of western NM Saturday in more widespread showers and storms. Low probabilities (10-20%) of IFR conditions in showers at KGUP and KFMN Saturday morning. Southerly low level flow will increase Saturday in advance of an approaching upper level trough, bringing gusts to around 30kts across central and eastern NM. Winds will gust to greater than 30kts in/near showers and storms Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 156 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Widespread wetting rains are expected through mid week, including over the most drought-stricken areas of western NM, so fire weather concerns are low. A few thunderstorms will impact the area each day, however. Heaviest rainfall totals are expected along and west of the Central Mountain Chain. Main wind concerns this week are strong southwest winds with gusts up to 40 mph across northeast NM Saturday afternoon and strong northerly winds behind a backdoor cold front Sunday night and early Monday across northeast NM. The front will push through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Monday resulting in breezy to windy conditions below canyons in the Rio Grande Valley. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 67 53 69 / 80 90 60 20 Dulce........................... 48 63 45 66 / 80 100 80 40 Cuba............................ 51 65 48 66 / 30 90 60 50 Gallup.......................... 55 65 49 67 / 70 80 60 40 El Morro........................ 54 64 49 65 / 40 90 60 50 Grants.......................... 54 67 49 68 / 30 90 50 50 Quemado......................... 55 69 50 67 / 20 80 50 50 Magdalena....................... 56 72 54 69 / 10 70 50 50 Datil........................... 52 69 49 66 / 20 80 60 50 Reserve......................... 52 74 51 71 / 20 80 70 50 Glenwood........................ 57 78 54 73 / 30 80 80 60 Chama........................... 47 59 43 61 / 70 90 80 40 Los Alamos...................... 54 64 52 66 / 20 90 60 40 Pecos........................... 50 67 48 67 / 10 70 50 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 64 48 65 / 10 60 40 20 Red River....................... 42 57 41 58 / 10 60 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 36 64 38 63 / 10 50 30 20 Taos............................ 50 68 47 68 / 10 60 40 20 Mora............................ 45 67 46 67 / 5 50 40 20 Espanola........................ 56 73 52 73 / 20 80 60 30 Santa Fe........................ 54 68 52 66 / 10 80 60 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 70 50 69 / 10 80 60 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 73 57 71 / 10 80 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 74 56 73 / 10 80 50 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 75 55 74 / 10 80 50 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 73 56 73 / 10 80 50 30 Belen........................... 58 77 55 74 / 10 80 50 40 Bernalillo...................... 59 75 55 73 / 10 80 60 30 Bosque Farms.................... 57 75 53 73 / 10 80 50 40 Corrales........................ 59 75 55 74 / 10 80 60 30 Los Lunas....................... 58 75 54 73 / 10 80 50 40 Placitas........................ 58 72 54 69 / 10 80 60 40 Rio Rancho...................... 60 74 56 73 / 10 80 60 30 Socorro......................... 61 78 58 71 / 10 60 50 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 70 51 66 / 10 80 60 40 Tijeras......................... 56 72 52 68 / 10 80 50 40 Edgewood........................ 51 72 49 69 / 10 70 50 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 49 73 47 71 / 10 70 50 30 Clines Corners.................. 50 67 50 67 / 5 60 40 20 Mountainair..................... 53 72 52 69 / 10 60 50 40 Gran Quivira.................... 52 73 51 69 / 10 50 50 50 Carrizozo....................... 56 76 57 68 / 5 20 50 50 Ruidoso......................... 51 71 53 65 / 5 20 50 60 Capulin......................... 51 71 49 72 / 0 10 5 0 Raton........................... 49 75 47 77 / 5 20 10 0 Springer........................ 51 76 49 77 / 0 20 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 50 68 50 71 / 5 40 40 10 Clayton......................... 57 78 57 82 / 0 10 10 0 Roy............................. 53 74 53 77 / 0 20 10 0 Conchas......................... 57 80 58 81 / 0 20 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 55 76 55 76 / 0 20 30 10 Tucumcari....................... 57 81 59 81 / 0 5 10 10 Clovis.......................... 58 81 60 80 / 0 5 0 20 Portales........................ 59 82 60 81 / 0 5 5 20 Fort Sumner..................... 57 79 58 80 / 0 5 10 20 Roswell......................... 60 84 61 79 / 0 5 20 30 Picacho......................... 55 82 58 77 / 5 10 30 50 Elk............................. 51 79 55 73 / 0 10 40 60 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for NMZ201. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...11