307
FXUS65 KABQ 102012
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
212 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Isolated to scattered storms may produce frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. A few storms in northeast
  New Mexico may become strong to severe.

- Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern and
  central New Mexico through the weekend where there is an
  increased risk of heat related illnesses. Temperatures could tie
  or exceed record highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

High pressure remains across southwest CONUS this afternoon,
producing west to northwest flow across a majority of New Mexico.
The state is split up in two halves from southwest to northeast
based on analyzed PWAT values. For northwest, west, and a chunk of
central NM, drier air is infiltrating and allowing for humidity
values to plummet (already 12% RH at Farmington as of 12pm). The 18z
ABQ sounding measured 0.55 PWAT and shows a substantial layer of dry
air in the mid to low levels. This sets the stage for a mainly clear
and hot day for those area, with breezy northwest to west winds. For
south and east areas, PWAT values exceed 1" as moisture is leftover
from yesterday`s activity. A generous crop of showers and storms are
already forming across the Sacramento Mountains and near Roosevelt
County. These storms should slowly meander southward, with short
lifespans to limit any flooding threat. In addition, these early
storms have stayed off the Ruidoso burn scars, which further limits
any threat of flash flooding. Across northeast and east central NM,
bulk shear values are forecast to increase up to 30-40kts,
sufficient for any strong to severe storms to develop. This is a
somewhat conditional threat however, because confidence is low on if
a storm can actually develop within this favorable environment. The
main message for storms is that, should a storm develop, it will be
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. In addition to
storms, record high temperatures will be challenged at several
locations across the state, primarily in central and eastern NM.

Drier air continues to filter into New Mexico for Friday, nearly
shutting off precipitation chances for the area. The only outlier to
this will be far western NM, against the AZ border. Forecast
soundings show a favorable environment for the development of high-
based virga showers with very little to no appreciable rainfall.
This is likely to be the only favored area for any rain to reach the
ground tomorrow across our forecast area. Everywhere else will see
continued above-average temperatures (90s-100s), with several
records being challenged or broken.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

This drier pattern begins to give way to better moisture this
weekend. The center of the high pressure shifts further east,
sliding slowly across NM and allowing moisture to gradually increase
underneath in and on its western periphery. Precipitation on
Saturday likely remains confined to the high terrain across our
area, especially across our southwest mountains. The high shifts
further eastward on Sunday, aided by a sharp trough pushing its way
into the Pacific Northwest. This looks to create another convergent
flow of moisture across AZ and NM going into Sunday and early next
week. With that, precipitation chances greatly increase across
our area, specifically the central mountain chain westward. This
favors to be the start of an active wet pattern going through at
least the middle of next week. Through each day, scattered to
numerous are favored across most of the area, especially western
NM. Deterministic models differ on whether we can get additional
forcing from speed maxes moving through the trough (which could
increase coverage and intensity of precipitation at times). They
also differ on if a backdoor front or general moisture boundary
moves into NM during the early to middle part of next week. This
would increase moisture especially across eastern NM. Main
messages with the long term period is that a favorable pattern for
more widespread precipitation is forecast starting Sunday and
into next week, though details for each day remain fuzzy
currently.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Brief MVFR ceilings remain around KRTN early this afternoon and are
expected to erode in the next 1-2 hours. Isolated storm development
is forecast over the Sacramento Mountains and the northern Sangre de
Cristo Mountains. Storms along the Sacramento Mountains are likely
to push an outflow boundary towards KROW this afternoon/evening.
Isolated storms across northeast NM may turn strong to severe this
afternoon and evening, with strong wind gusts and large hail being
the main concerns. Elsewhere, west to northwest breezes will be the
main aviation focus, with those tapering off after sundown. Low
chance of IFR conditions returning to KAXX overnight with fog,
otherwise a calm night is expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next
several days. With that being said, isolated elevated fire weather
conditions are forecast this afternoon, driven by the single digit
humidity values forecast from Farmington to ABQ. Winds are expected
to remain well below critical thresholds, but with lightning having
occurred over the area within the last few days, these dry and windy
conditions may ignite new fires. Another day of low teens humidity
is likely tomorrow, though winds looks to decrease from today. A few
high based virga showers may develop across western NM, producing
strong outflow winds and the low chance of a dry lightning strike.
Going into the weekend, the chance of wetting precipitation
increases each day, with Sunday through at least Tuesday having good
chances for rainfall across central and western NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  55  92  59  91 /   0   5  10   0
Dulce...........................  42  90  46  89 /   0   0   5   0
Cuba............................  52  88  55  87 /   0   0   5   0
Gallup..........................  52  90  54  86 /   0  20  20  10
El Morro........................  51  85  52  84 /   0   5  20  10
Grants..........................  54  89  57  88 /   0   5  10  10
Quemado.........................  56  85  56  84 /   0  10  20  20
Magdalena.......................  59  88  62  87 /   0   5  10  30
Datil...........................  56  84  57  83 /   0   5   5  30
Reserve.........................  55  90  56  89 /   0  20  20  40
Glenwood........................  61  95  60  95 /   5  20  20  10
Chama...........................  47  84  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  58  88  61  86 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  53  89  59  88 /   0   0   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  52  86  54  85 /   0   0   0   5
Red River.......................  45  77  47  76 /   0   0   0  10
Angel Fire......................  36  82  40  82 /   0   0   0  10
Taos............................  48  90  52  89 /   0   0   0   5
Mora............................  50  87  56  86 /   5   0   0  20
Espanola........................  56  94  59  93 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  58  89  63  89 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  55  92  59  91 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  94  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  97  65  96 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  95  67  95 /   0   0   5   0
Belen...........................  60  97  64  96 /   0   0   5   0
Bernalillo......................  61  97  65  96 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  58  96  63  96 /   0   0   5   0
Corrales........................  62  97  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  60  96  64  96 /   0   0   5   0
Placitas........................  61  93  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  61  96  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  67  98  70  97 /   0   0   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  89  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  59  90  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  53  91  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  50  93  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  54  89  60  89 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  56  90  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  56  90  60  90 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  63  92  66  93 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  58  85  60  86 /   0   0   0  50
Capulin.........................  53  86  56  85 /  20   0   0   5
Raton...........................  51  91  53  90 /  20   0   0  10
Springer........................  52  93  54  92 /  20   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  53  90  58  89 /   0   0   0  10
Clayton.........................  59  93  62  91 /  20   0   0   0
Roy.............................  56  91  59  91 /  20   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  62  99  64  99 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  61  97  65  96 /  20   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  63  99  65  99 /  20   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  65  99  67 100 /  20   0   0   0
Portales........................  65 100  68 100 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  64 100  65 100 /  20   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  68 102  69 101 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  63  96  65  97 /   5   5   0  30
Elk.............................  59  93  62  93 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77