143
FXUS65 KABQ 180000 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
600 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
  favor the central mountain chain westward each day with a risk
  of lightning, small hail, gusty outflow winds, and isolated
  flash flooding.

- There is a high risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area
  burn scars Saturday, and a moderate risk Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

An active Monsoon thunderstorm day continues across the Land of
Enchantment. With a localized area of low pressure across far
eastern NM and the TX panhandle, this is driving the storms to have
a southerly to southwesterly movement today. Storms will continue to
drift off of the higher terrain into the adjacent lower areas
through the afternoon and continuing well into the evening.
Widespread rainfall amounts are likely to be near 0.1-0.5", mainly
from the central mountain chain westward. Isolated amounts of 1-2"
are possible in the strongest storms. A few areas of concern are at
the forefront for flash flooding this afternoon and evening. The
first is the Ruidoso area burn scars and the Seven Cabins burn scar.
Storms have already begun over the scars and are likely to continue
through roughly 5pm. Should these storms continue to regenerate and
move over the scars repeatedly, flash flooding would be likely to
develop. The next area of concern is in western NM, including Gallup
and Zuni Pueblo. These areas experienced flooding yesterday
(Thursday) after receiving up to 1.6" from storms. This has primed
the soils to be less receptive to additional rainfall, and thus
flash flooding from additional thunderstorms this afternoon remains
possible to likely, depending on where storms form. For both Ruidoso
and western NM, Flash Flood Watches are in effect from now until 5pm
(Ruidoso) and 9pm (western NM). WPC also has painted these areas in
a Slight (2/4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall, which lines up with our
thinking of the more susceptible areas for flash flooding today.
Storms are likely to fester through midnight across western NM, with
a few showers lingering into the late overnight hours. Additionally,
a few late night showers may hit the Ruidoso and Roswell area after
9pm, though rainfall rates are likely to be light enough to limit a
flooding risk.

The localized low pressure remains over eastern NM/western TX going
into Saturday, so another round of Monsoon thunderstorms can be
expected. Storm motion does look to shift more southwesterly to even
west in some instances, but storms are likely to still be rather
slow moving. This looks to set up another day of locally heavy
rainfall capable of producing flash flooding. For the Ruidoso area,
additional storms are likely to form through the midday to early
afternoon hours. Because of the expected antecedent conditions from
today`s (Friday`s) storms, another Flash Flood Watch has been issued
for that area. Across western and southwestern NM, this is the area
that is currently forecast to see the highest rainfall amounts
(locally up to another 1-2", widespread up to 0.5"). CAMs are
differing from each other in the exact location of precipitation,
however the HREF PMM rainfall amounts are higher across the Gila
Region in Catron County. There is the question of how receptive the
forests are in that area to rainfall as well (outside of burn scars
like the Sacaton). Thus, there was not high confidence to consider a
Flash Flood Watch for the region as much of the rainfall is likely
to be beneficial in nature. However, flash flooding still looks
possible given the heavy rainfall rates likely to be observed, and
another Slight Risk is painted for that area by WPC. Outside of the
southern part of our area, localized flooding impacts are possible,
but are likely not going to be widespread enough to consider
additional Watches. Storms should taper off similarly Saturday
evening as they do this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

The upper level pattern shifts just slightly on Sunday, developing
more of an inverted trough signal with predominantly east to west
flow over the state. With Monsoon moisture remaining in place, we
are likely to once again see thunderstorms develop through the
afternoon. Given the placement of the potential inverted trough,
storm motions are forecast to be a touch quicker than Fri/Sat, but
additional synoptic lift from the trough may help generate more
storms overall. Deterministic models are having a poor time
agreeing with each other on the overall flow pattern and the
theta-e boundaries on Sunday, so while there is high confidence in
precipitation occurring, there is low confidence in where exactly
the heaviest precipitation will fall. The current forecast looks
to place the heaviest precipitation over the Sacramento Mountains
and the Gila Region, which may lead to another day of flash
flooding across the Ruidoso area and the mountainous terrain of
southwest NM.

Going into the work week, the inverted trough gets ingested into the
overall high pressure over western CONUS and meanders its way east
at a very slow pace. Thunderstorms are still favored to form over
the western high terrain, but at a slightly lower clip given the
Monsoon moisture being forced more to the west as a result of the
high pressure. This trend continues Tuesday, and by Wednesday and
Thursday, the high pressure looks to sit almost directly over NM,
limiting storm chances and raising temperatures, with some eastern
areas potentially getting back into the triple digits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Showers and thunderstorms currently occurring across the airspace
will continue through this evening before tapering off for most
areas around sunset. Potential for some lingering isolated
showers and thunderstorms across southeast NM, including KROW,
with lingering clouds across western and central areas overnight
into early Saturday morning. Another crop of showers and
thunderstorms across most areas, outside of northeast NM, Saturday
afternoon. Higher terrain areas will be most favored. Main hazards will
be gusty and erratic winds, frequent lightning, locally heavy
rainfall and small hail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days. Daily rounds of thunderstorms are likely to produce
several to numerous lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall.
Isolated flash flooding may occur over recent burn areas. Storms are
likely to move mostly south to southwest today and tomorrow,
westerly on Sunday, then shifting more northerly into next week.
Good to excellent humidity recoveries are expected most nights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  89  62  92 /  40  20  30   5
Dulce...........................  48  87  48  89 /  40  60  10  20
Cuba............................  55  82  55  84 /  40  60  40  40
Gallup..........................  53  83  53  84 /  60  50  50  60
El Morro........................  54  78  54  80 /  50  70  60  80
Grants..........................  55  83  55  84 /  40  70  60  60
Quemado.........................  55  80  55  80 /  50  70  60  90
Magdalena.......................  61  82  61  82 /  20  70  50  60
Datil...........................  57  78  57  78 /  40  70  50  80
Reserve.........................  52  86  53  86 /  30  80  50  90
Glenwood........................  55  90  55  89 /  20  60  50  90
Chama...........................  47  80  48  83 /  50  50  20  20
Los Alamos......................  61  83  62  84 /  40  40  30  20
Pecos...........................  53  83  54  84 /  30  60  30  50
Cerro/Questa....................  53  82  55  84 /  40  50   5  20
Red River.......................  46  73  47  75 /  40  40  10  30
Angel Fire......................  40  78  42  79 /  30  40  20  30
Taos............................  50  84  51  86 /  30  40  20  20
Mora............................  51  81  52  81 /  30  40  20  40
Espanola........................  59  90  60  91 /  40  40  20  10
Santa Fe........................  60  83  60  84 /  30  60  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  58  87  58  87 /  30  50  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  90  66  90 /  50  50  50  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  63  90  63  90 /  40  40  50  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  93  62  92 /  40  40  50  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  91  65  92 /  40  30  40  10
Belen...........................  62  92  61  92 /  40  40  50  20
Bernalillo......................  64  93  64  93 /  40  40  40  20
Bosque Farms....................  60  91  60  91 /  40  40  50  20
Corrales........................  64  93  64  93 /  40  40  40  20
Los Lunas.......................  62  91  62  91 /  40  40  50  20
Placitas........................  65  88  65  89 /  40  40  40  20
Rio Rancho......................  65  92  64  92 /  40  30  40  10
Socorro.........................  67  93  67  93 /  30  50  50  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  84  59  84 /  40  60  50  40
Tijeras.........................  59  85  59  85 /  40  60  50  40
Edgewood........................  55  86  55  86 /  40  60  40  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  87  52  87 /  30  50  30  30
Clines Corners..................  54  82  55  82 /  30  50  30  30
Mountainair.....................  56  86  56  85 /  40  60  50  50
Gran Quivira....................  57  83  56  83 /  40  70  60  60
Carrizozo.......................  62  85  62  84 /  40  60  50  80
Ruidoso.........................  56  78  57  78 /  60  80  60  80
Capulin.........................  52  83  54  84 /  10  20  10  10
Raton...........................  52  88  54  89 /  10   5  10   5
Springer........................  54  88  56  89 /  20  20  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  53  84  55  84 /  20  40  30  20
Clayton.........................  61  90  62  92 /  10  10  20   0
Roy.............................  57  86  59  86 /  20  30  30   5
Conchas.........................  62  93  63  93 /  40  10  40   5
Santa Rosa......................  61  89  61  88 /  40  20  30   5
Tucumcari.......................  64  94  64  93 /  30  10  20   5
Clovis..........................  63  90  63  90 /  30  30  30  20
Portales........................  63  91  63  91 /  40  40  30  10
Fort Sumner.....................  63  92  63  91 /  40  20  30  10
Roswell.........................  66  92  66  92 /  40  30  30  20
Picacho.........................  61  87  61  86 /  50  70  50  60
Elk.............................  57  84  57  83 /  50  80  50  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ205-206.

Flood Watch Saturday afternoon for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...71