Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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942 FXUS65 KABQ 211929 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1229 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1216 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025 - Warming trend continues areawide the next several days. Record high temperatures will be challenged in western and northern NM on Monday and Tuesday. - Breezy northwest winds will create elevated fire weather conditions in the central highlands each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday. - There is a moderate chance of light mountain snow and valley rain next weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1216 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025 The bitterly cold temperatures in eastern NM have finally come to an end and temperatures areawide will continue to warm through the early part of next week. Outside breezy west to northwest winds in the highlands east of the central mountain chain each afternoon, tranquil weather will prevail the next several days. The seasonably warm temperatures will be accompanied by dry conditions that will persist through at least the middle of next week. There is a moderate chance that light mountain snow and valley rain return next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1216 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025 A rather quiet weather pattern will prevail thru the short term period despite the remnants of a weak H5 upper low crossing the state tonight and tomorrow. The main recent weather impacts from bitter cold across the eastern plains has come to an end. The modified Arctic airmass is and will continue to modify tonight before being shunted eastward into TX Saturday. High temperatures thru the eastern plains warm 15F to 20F relative to today to within a few degrees of normal for late February. Overall, highs will range from the 30s/40s in the mountains to 50s in lower elevation areas. The Albuquerque metro will flirt with 60F. Overnight valley temperature inversions will be favored across northern and central NM. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1216 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025 The warming trend continues into early next week as dry northwest flow continues over the area. Both Sunday and Monday will be breezy in the typical windy highlands east of the central mountain chain thanks to a weak dry shortwave moving through, but it will be otherwise quiet and pleasant. Despite numerous record lows being broken earlier this week, it will be record highs on the chopping block early to mid-next week. 500 mb heights will rise above the 90th percentile areawide during the second "false spring." Temperatures may drop a tad in the eastern plains on Tuesday if a weak backdoor front is able to squeak through, but there is high confidence that the above normal temperatures will prevail regardless. The sub-tropical jet will move overhead on Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing a westerly breeze to most areas, which will turn around to the northwest on Wednesday as a subtle, dry cold front crosses the area. This will drop temps 5-10 degrees across the region, but highs will remain above seasonal averages. Models have consistently shown a closed Low ejecting inland into the desert southwest late week into the weekend, but continue to differ on the timing and trajectory of this feature. There is a moderate chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers Friday through the weekend, but given how weak this feature looks, anything more than minor impacts appears very unlikely. Fortunately, there is a reason to be optimistic about moisture beyond the 7 day period. There is high confidence (>80% chance) that the Pacific North- American Index (PNA) will become negative during the first week of March, meaning that anomalous troughing will dominate over the western CONUS. This greatly increases the chance of Pacific moisture reaching New Mexico, with the northern half of the state being favored for precipitation during this period. For reference, the PNA has not turned negative since mid- November when a major winter storm impacted the region. While this pattern change does not mean we will get another major winter storm, it at least increases the chance of precious snowfall that has been hard to come by this winter. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 AM MST Fri Feb 21 2025 VFR prevails areawide today. A few isolated snow showers will favor the peaks of the northern mountains near CO today. Light prevailing westerlies developing this afternoon thru central and western NM will become light and variable tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1216 PM MST Fri Feb 21 2025 Temperatures steadily warm thru Tuesday as the modified Arctic airmass across eastern NM modifies and gets shunted eastward out of NM tonight thru Saturday. Light prevailing westerly winds also steadily increase each day allowing for the return of elevated fire weather conditions. Localized and short-lived critical fire weather will be possible early next week thru parts of the central highlands. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 24 53 24 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 11 49 13 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 19 51 21 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 13 55 15 62 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 23 53 24 59 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 14 56 16 63 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 22 54 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 28 55 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 26 53 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 16 61 15 66 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 21 64 21 71 / 0 5 0 0 Chama........................... 13 45 15 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 27 51 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 23 52 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 22 47 24 56 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 17 40 21 46 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 12 45 16 53 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 16 51 18 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 18 52 24 59 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 20 58 22 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 27 51 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 24 55 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 34 56 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 30 58 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 23 60 22 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 30 59 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 18 61 18 68 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 26 60 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 18 60 17 67 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 28 60 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 20 60 19 67 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 30 56 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 29 59 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 29 62 29 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 27 52 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 28 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 21 55 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 13 56 18 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 20 52 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 20 55 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 22 55 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 27 57 30 64 / 0 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 25 52 29 59 / 0 10 0 0 Capulin......................... 19 51 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 16 55 21 63 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 15 56 20 65 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 17 54 23 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 22 56 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 18 52 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 20 60 24 68 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 18 58 26 68 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 17 59 23 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 20 54 27 69 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 19 54 26 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 17 55 23 70 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 21 54 26 76 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 20 55 31 71 / 0 5 0 0 Elk............................. 22 56 30 70 / 0 10 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...24