200
FXUS65 KABQ 111147 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
547 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 532 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Heat continues across eastern and central New Mexico through
  the weekend where there is an increased risk of heat related
  illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs.

- Isolated to scattered storms may threaten frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall through Sunday. A surge of
  rich monsoon moisture next week may increase the risk of heavy
  rainfall and flash flooding Monday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A moist outflow boundary moving west over eastern NM has kept low
level easterly flow in place with surface dewpoints in the 50s and
60s. Exceptionally dry air remains in place over central and western
NM with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s. This dry air will
spread southeast into more of the region today with a 593dm H5
high drifting southeast into southern NM. Max temps will be very
hot again with many record highs expected, including the ABQ metro.
Stronger zonal flow aloft (40-60kt) will approach from the Great
Basin by late this afternoon and force strong moisture advection
into western NM. PWATs are forecast to rise from near 0.25" to
near 1" this evening along the NM/AZ border. CAMs show scattered
showers and storms forming along the higher terrain in eastern AZ
then moving swiftly east into western NM. Replacing the dry air
will come at the cost of strong downburst winds along and west of
the Cont Divide this evening. DCAPE values are progged between
600 and 1200 J/kg with the large inverted-V profiles. A large
convective outflow may surge east into the RGV between 8PM and
10PM with gusts of 35 to 45mph. Blowing dust may reduce vsbys if
the boundary materializes.

Saturday will be very hot again as the H5 ridge drifts east into
southeast NM. More record highs are expected. Whatever moisture
was able to advect east into NM will battle drier mid and upper
level air lingering on the northern edge of the upper high. CAMs
show meager convection with high DCAPE still leading to gusty
downburst winds. The upper high will move east into west TX
Saturday night and allow 700-500mb layer follow to become more
south/southwest over the region for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

PWATs continue climbing Sunday and Monday with increasing coverage
of showers and storms expected, especially for central and western
NM. Forecast confidence on the coverage of storms with beneficial
rainfall is still low to moderate. The GFS and ECMWF both show a
weak ridge extending westward into southern NM from the main upper
high farther east over TX. This pattern may choke off the deeper
moisture and lead to greater stability over parts of the area. An
upper level trough approaching from the west may provide larger-
scale ascent to overcome any stability issues by Monday.

The rest of next week looks downright wet with surprisingly good
consensus from extended models. The upper high shifts into the
southeast U.S. while an upper level low/trough develops along the
West Coast. PWATs are also shown soaring to near record values for
mid September. Widespread rainfall amounts between 0.50" and 1.50"
are shown during the 4-day period from Monday to Thursday on the
latest NBM with 90th percentile amounts >3". Given the lackluster
performance of monsoon bursts this summer, forecast confidence
will remain low to moderate until we get much closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A small patch of low clouds near the Raton Ridge and patchy fog
near Angel Fire will dissipate thru sunrise. Northwest breezes
will kick up over central NM and the high terrain between 12PM
and 2PM with gusts of 15 to 25KT possible thru sunset. Isolated
to scattered SHRA/TS over eastern AZ will move quickly east into
western NM after 1PM with the peak coverage likely from 4PM to
10PM. Wind gusts >40KT are possible with any of this activity
along with patchy BLDU, brief rain, and frequent lightning in
western NM. An outflow boundary from this activity may reach the
RGV by 8PM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Today will be very dry over much of northern and central NM with
northwest breezes (gusts 15-25 mph), hot temps, and min humidity
<15%. Severe to exceptional drought along with ERCs forecast to
increase to near the 80th percentile may allow recent lightning
strikes in dry fuels to perk up as new fire starts. Moisture will
return quickly tonight with high-based and gusty showers and storms
moving east into western NM. More lightning starts are possible
in dry fuels. More of the same is expected on Saturday. Temps
today and Saturday will rival many record highs.

A wetter pattern will attempt to redevelop Sunday thru Thursday
with low to moderate confidence on the areal coverage of wetting
rainfall. Confidence is greater that max temps will trend cooler
with higher humidity areawide next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  59  90  62 /   0  20   0   5
Dulce...........................  90  46  89  50 /   0   5   5   0
Cuba............................  88  55  87  57 /   0  10   5  10
Gallup..........................  90  54  85  55 /  30  30   5  10
El Morro........................  85  52  82  52 /  20  20   5  20
Grants..........................  89  57  87  56 /  20  20  10  20
Quemado.........................  85  56  83  56 /  20  20  10  30
Magdalena.......................  88  62  86  61 /   0  10  30  20
Datil...........................  84  57  82  56 /  10  10  30  30
Reserve.........................  90  56  90  55 /  40  30  50  20
Glenwood........................  95  60  96  61 /  30  30  10  10
Chama...........................  84  49  83  51 /   0   0  10   5
Los Alamos......................  88  61  86  62 /   0   0  20  10
Pecos...........................  89  59  89  58 /   0   0  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  86  54  85  56 /   0   0   5   5
Red River.......................  81  42  81  43 /   0   0  10   5
Angel Fire......................  82  36  82  41 /   0   0  10   5
Taos............................  90  52  89  53 /   0   0   5   5
Mora............................  86  56  86  54 /   0   0  20   5
Espanola........................  94  59  94  61 /   0   0  10   5
Santa Fe........................  89  63  89  63 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  92  59  91  61 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  68  94  68 /   0   5   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  66  95  67 /   0   5   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  65  96  66 /   0   5   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  95  67  95  69 /   0   5   0  10
Belen...........................  97  64  95  64 /   0   5   0  10
Bernalillo......................  97  65  97  67 /   0   5   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  96  63  95  64 /   0   5   0  10
Corrales........................  97  66  97  67 /   0   5   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  96  64  95  65 /   0   5   0  10
Placitas........................  93  65  92  66 /   0   5   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  96  66  96  67 /   0   5   0  10
Socorro.........................  98  70  97  69 /   0   5  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  61  87  61 /   0   0  10  10
Tijeras.........................  92  62  91  62 /   0   0  10  10
Edgewood........................  93  59  91  59 /   0   0  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  56  93  56 /   0   0   5  10
Clines Corners..................  89  60  88  59 /   0   0   5  10
Mountainair.....................  91  59  90  59 /   0   0   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  90  60  90  60 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  92  66  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  85  60  87  59 /   0   0  50   0
Capulin.........................  87  56  85  55 /   0   0   5   5
Raton...........................  91  53  90  53 /   0   0   5   5
Springer........................  93  54  93  55 /   0   0   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  89  58  88  56 /   0   0  10  10
Clayton.........................  93  62  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  91  59  92  59 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  99  64  99  66 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  98  65  96  65 /   0   0   5  10
Tucumcari....................... 100  65  99  68 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  99  67 102  69 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................ 100  68 102  70 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner..................... 101  65 101  68 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell......................... 103  69 103  71 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  96  65  97  64 /   5   0  20   5
Elk.............................  93  62  95  61 /   5   0  30   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42