906
FXUS65 KABQ 152012
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
212 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture will continue to push into northern
  and central New Mexico this week, increasing the chances for
  showers and thunderstorms. This will introduce a risk of locally
  heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially around urban
  areas, burn scars, and low water crossings on Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Water will begin to flow in normally dry arroyos, creeks,
  streams, and tributaries to mainstem rivers that have dried up
  this summer. Dirt roads will become muddy, and large areas of
  standing water may form in low-lying areas.

- Isolated strong storms each afternoon and evening this week
  could produce strong outflow wind gusts, wet microbursts, and
  small hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

One upper trough has pushed eastward into Ontario with another
deepening over the Pacific Northwest states while subtropical high
pressure stretches over the southeastern ConUS. This continues to
steer a plume of deeper subtropical monsoon moisture from the Gulf
of CA northeastward into NM. The 18Z sounding at ABQ boasted a
1.22 in PWAT which appears to be a new daily record. There is a
batch of showers and even a faint MCV swirling over central NM
currently, but just beyond this vortex things are destabilizing
quickly, even with some leftover mid and high level debris
clouds. Look for storms to keep multiplying and filling in over
the Continental Divide and also the Sangre de Cristos and nearby
highlands surrounding the Sacramentos through the afternoon. Storm
motions are already shown to be slower than yesterday, as was
modeled with cells generally drifting northeastward at 5 to 15
mph, and this will exacerbate flash flooding with longer storm
residence times over any particular area. In northeastern NM, the
backdoor front is plunging in with gusty winds observed at RTN and
CAO. While it will be stable behind the front, the boundary will
provide an area of upslope on the east faces of the Sangre de
Cristos and surface convergence as it advances toward I-40 later
this afternoon and into the evening. The front will create some
directional shear too, so a few strong to severe cells cannot be
ruled out in the northeastern quadrant of NM before they move into
the more stable airmass. These aforementioned areas of
development will translate northeastward into some nearby lower
elevation areas through the evening. Warm, moist advection in the
mid levels will increase slightly through the overnight with
batches of widespread rain and showers covering much of the
forecast area, but focusing more specifically over central zones.

Into Wednesday, the Pacific Northwest low will dive toward the
northern CA coastline, and the upper high will nudge slightly
westward. This will place an area of confluent, moist southerly
flow directly into NM. Per the latest CAMs, much of tonight`s rain
and showers will be focusing toward the western half of NM by
dawn Wednesday, moving into the northwestern quadrant through the
late morning. Lots of cloud cover in these western areas could
hamper or slow the diurnal destabilization, but south central
areas look to erupt quickly by the early afternoon. The burn scars
in Lincoln county look to be targeted Wednesday afternoon before
spreading northward along the central mountain chain, and by late
afternoon and early evening, much of western NM is modeled to
undergo enough destabilization for widespread convective
initiation. There remains some uncertainties on how fast, or if at
all, the western zones will destabilize. This would have huge
implications on rainfall rates and consequently amounts, as
stubborn, denser cloud cover would keep things more stable and
stratiform with lower rates/amounts. For now, we have given a nod
to the more ambitious CAMs with high POPs and a Flash Flood Watch
for Wednesday due to the projected high rainfall rates over
western and central NM. Storm motions will increase in the
confluent southerlies, suggesting less of a heavy rainfall threat,
but training and repeated rounds of storms with quasi-tropical
drop distributions will overcome this. Plus, soils will become
wetter beforehand. Precipitation will gradually morph Wednesday
night and Thursday morning into more stratiform rain with embedded
convective cells over far western NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The upper low will move toward the tri-state area of CA/OR/NV on
Thursday, causing the monsoon moisture plume to tilt a bit more
southwest to northeast, but high PWATs (1.0 to 1.2 inch) will
remain over most of NM. This will steer the best focus for storms
divergently from the Gila into all of northern NM with a secondary
focus over the south central to central mountains/highlands.
Storm motions would not alter much, and antecedent conditions
will likely dictate where any Flood Watches get issued, but at
this point there seems to be a moderate to high likelihood (50-70%
chance) of one being issued for western NM zones on Thursday.

With the low moving a bit farther inland over northwestern states
on Friday, the flow will gain a very slight westerly component in
NM, potentially leading to some drier air in northwestern zones.
Blended ensemble means support some drying in northwestern zones,
but the ECMWF family seems more reluctant to dry things out. This
moisture gradient could enhance development, but nailing down the
exact placement is tricky at this point. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms have been left in the forecast for most western
and central zones, but western areas may be due for significant
trimming on subsequent shifts if current trends hold.

The westerlies still look to overtake more of the forecast area
into Saturday, inhibiting the rainfall efficiency and reducing the
number of storms, particularly in western zones. The
aforementioned low would be moving into the northern Rockies,
perhaps providing faint forcing and lift for anything in central
to eastern NM.

By Sunday, there is increasing consensus that lighter and drier
northwest flow aloft will build into NM with an overall continued
decrease in storm coverage for most zones. Northeastern NM would
be an exception, as another weak, but moist backdoor front is
slated to invade.

A weak upper trough is modeled with poor agreement on placement
by Monday. Storms would likely favor eastern NM based on Sunday`s
backdoor front, and confidence is low that there will be
sufficient moisture elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Lingering showers are moving over central New Mexico with new
thunderstorms starting to develop around this area. These storms
will multiply over the high terrain of the Continental Divide
through the early afternoon with additional cells developing along
and east of the central mountain chain through mid to late
afternoon. Storms will commonly produce small hail, gusty
downburst winds, lightning, and brief heavy downpours. Storms in
northeastern areas of New Mexico will have a tendency to turn
strong or severe with larger hail and damaging winds. Storms will
fill in and move northeastward into nearby valleys and lower
elevations through the early evening before turning more showery
through midnight. Portions of western and central New Mexico could
observe periodic rain and showers through the overnight into
early Wednesday morning. Pockets of lower, MVFR (less than 3,000
ft) ceilings will be possible (20-40% chance) early Wednesday
morning, mainly across west central and northeastern areas (KGUP,
KRTN, KLVS, KCAO).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

No significant or widespread fire weather concerns are in store
this week as a deep monsoon moisture plume leads to more showers
and thunderstorms over NM. Much higher chances of wetting
rainfall and much needed fuel moisture are still in place,
especially for most western and central zones. Daytime humidity
values will undergo significant rises through Thursday with good
to excellent overnight recoveries also occurring area-wide through
this time frame. Thunderstorm outflows will remain the primary
wind focus. The exception will be in northeastern NM with today`s
back door front and again on Sunday when northerly gusts will be
strong for a couple to a few hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  74  56  75 /  60  80  90  70
Dulce...........................  49  70  48  69 /  70  90  90  90
Cuba............................  53  70  51  69 /  60  70  90  70
Gallup..........................  52  70  51  74 /  40  90  90  50
El Morro........................  50  71  49  72 /  50  80  90  70
Grants..........................  53  72  52  73 /  60  90  90  70
Quemado.........................  54  73  53  76 /  60  80  90  60
Magdalena.......................  57  75  57  75 /  60  60  80  60
Datil...........................  54  72  53  74 /  60  80  90  60
Reserve.........................  55  73  55  79 /  50  80  90  50
Glenwood........................  60  79  58  83 /  60  70  90  50
Chama...........................  48  66  49  65 /  70  80  90  90
Los Alamos......................  57  73  56  73 /  70  80  90  70
Pecos...........................  53  75  53  74 /  70  90  90  80
Cerro/Questa....................  51  72  52  71 /  70  80  80  80
Red River.......................  44  66  44  65 /  70  80  80  70
Angel Fire......................  41  70  42  69 /  70  80  80  80
Taos............................  51  75  51  75 /  70  80  80  80
Mora............................  51  72  52  73 /  80  80  90  70
Espanola........................  56  78  55  79 /  70  80  80  60
Santa Fe........................  57  75  56  75 /  70  90  80  70
Santa Fe Airport................  56  78  55  77 /  60  80  80  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  79  60  79 /  60  80  80  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  81  61  80 /  60  70  80  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  83  56  82 /  50  70  80  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  80  61  81 /  60  70  80  60
Belen...........................  60  84  59  83 /  50  60  70  40
Bernalillo......................  60  80  59  82 /  60  80  80  60
Bosque Farms....................  57  83  56  82 /  50  60  70  50
Corrales........................  60  81  59  81 /  60  70  80  60
Los Lunas.......................  59  83  59  82 /  50  60  70  50
Placitas........................  59  79  59  79 /  70  80  80  60
Rio Rancho......................  61  79  60  80 /  60  70  80  60
Socorro.........................  62  84  62  83 /  50  60  80  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  75  55  77 /  60  90  80  60
Tijeras.........................  57  77  57  78 /  60  80  80  60
Edgewood........................  54  76  54  77 /  60  90  80  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  79  52  79 /  60  90  80  70
Clines Corners..................  53  77  53  76 /  60  90  70  70
Mountainair.....................  55  77  55  76 /  60  70  60  40
Gran Quivira....................  56  79  55  77 /  50  70  60  30
Carrizozo.......................  60  79  60  80 /  50  70  50  50
Ruidoso.........................  54  74  53  75 /  50  80  50  70
Capulin.........................  52  77  54  78 /  80  40  50  30
Raton...........................  52  80  54  80 /  80  60  70  60
Springer........................  54  82  55  83 /  80  60  70  40
Las Vegas.......................  53  76  54  77 /  70  80  80  60
Clayton.........................  58  85  62  87 /  60  20  20   5
Roy.............................  56  80  58  82 /  80  40  60  20
Conchas.........................  62  88  63  90 /  80  40  50  20
Santa Rosa......................  60  86  62  87 /  60  50  50  20
Tucumcari.......................  62  90  63  91 /  80  30  30  20
Clovis..........................  63  90  63  90 /  70  10  10   0
Portales........................  64  91  64  91 /  70  10  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  63  90  64  89 /  70  30  30  20
Roswell.........................  66  93  66  92 /  60  20  30  10
Picacho.........................  60  84  60  85 /  60  70  30  40
Elk.............................  58  79  57  81 /  50  70  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for NMZ205>209-226-241.

Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ208-209-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52