239
FXUS65 KABQ 111208 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
608 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 543 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor the
  continental divide westward today and tonight, then the
  continental divide eastward Friday through Saturday night.

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected during the latter half of
  this week with the main risk of flash flooding below recent burn
  scars, and in places that receive repeated rounds of
  thunderstorms in succession.

- There will be a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over
  western areas this afternoon and evening, another over central
  and western areas Friday afternoon and evening, then along and
  east of the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon and
  evening.

- In the wake of a Pacific cold front that crosses Saturday, some
  parts of the northern mountains will probably experience their
  first freeze of the season Saturday night and Sunday night.

- After a brief break in storms Sunday, monsoon moisture and storm
  coverage will begin to increase again Monday and especially
  Tuesday, before another downtick in storms Wednesday in the wake
  of another Pacific cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 108 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Some moderate to locally heavy rain amounts are forecast today
through Friday night.  A broad upper level low pressure system
passing eastward over the Great Basin will steer a series of
disturbances northeastward across western NM today and tonight,
then a stronger shortwave trough across western, central, and
northern areas Friday and Friday night. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will favor the continental divide
westward today and tonight with spottier activity as far east as a
Socorro-to-Raton line. On Friday, a line or broken line of
showers and thunderstorms looks to form over western parts of the
forecast area (especially along the continental divide), then
track eastward across the central valley and central mountain
chain Friday evening, and eventually spread out as cells cross the
eastern plains late Friday night. There is a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms over western areas today and again Friday,
with 0-6 KM bulk shear values climbing from around 30-40 KT today
to around 30-50 KT on Friday. The squall line models are generally
depicting crossing from the continental divide through central
areas on Friday afternoon and evening may well produce 50 KT wind
gusts in some locations, with a risk of large hail from some
cells. A few weak supercells will also be possible with a low but
relevant risk of tornadoes. Rain amounts today through Friday
night along and west of the continental divide should mostly vary
from 0.20-0.75" with locally higher amounts potentially over 2
inches as PWATs climb well over 1", or around 125-175% of average
for this time of year. Over central areas, most of the rain will
come Friday and Friday night with amounts generally around
0.25-1", again with locally higher amounts probably exceeding 2
inches in spots. Rapid storm motion is expected, so burn scars
and locations that receive multiple storms in succession will be
at greatest risk for flash flooding.

High temperatures today should vary from a few degrees below
1991-2020 averages over the Four Corners to as much as 7 degrees
above on the eastern plains. Readings will fall a few to 7 degrees
across the forecast area on Friday with the greatest decrease near
the Four Corners.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 108 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will return mainly
to locations along and east of the continental divide on Saturday,
then favor locations along and east of the central mountain chain
Saturday night, as an upper level trough sweeps eastward across
the state with a Pacific cold front. There will be another
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday, but this time
along and east of the central mountain chain where the cold front
will cross during the overnight hours. Locally heavy rainfall will
again occur Saturday with some locations along and east of the
central mountain chain seeing rain rates potentially over 2 inches
per hour. Storms will move eastward at a good 20-30 mph, so
locations where the ground is already saturated from precip on
Friday and Friday night will have the greatest risk of flash
flooding, as well as the recent burn scars, and locations that
receive a series of storms in succession.

After high temperatures bottom out Saturday from near to around 8
degrees below 30-year averages, readings will generally rebound
Sunday and Monday. Drier air will filter over the area in west and
northwest flow aloft on Sunday, when only a few spotty storms will
be possible with a dryline on the southeast plains. On Monday,
isolated showers and thunderstorms will return the east slopes of
the central mountain chain westward as a high pressure system
centered over Texas, and an upper level low pressure system
passing eastward over the northern and central Rockies, begin to
steer a modest stream of monsoon moisture over northeastward out
of Mexico. This stream of monsoon moisture should peak across
southwest, central, and northeast parts of the forecast area on
Tuesday with another round of scattered to potentially numerous
showers and storms. Drier air should arrive on Wednesday in the
wake of another Pacific cold front that crosses Tuesday night.

Angel Fire, and some other locations high in the northern
mountains, will probably experience their first freeze of the
season Saturday night, then a hard freeze Sunday night, and touch
freezing again Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor the
continental divide westward this afternoon and tonight, with
scattered to isolated activity reaching as far east as the upper
Rio Grande Valley and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A disturbance
crossing the Four Corners keep showers and some embedded
thunderstorms going overnight. Some storms will probably turn
severe this afternoon and tonight by producing large hail and
damaging winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025

South and southwest winds will be gusty across the forecast area
today and Friday. Erratic wind gusts with thunderstorms over
western areas Thursday, then from the continental divide eastward
over central areas Friday, could reach 50 KT. A squall line
passing eastward over central areas Friday evening could produce a
1-2 hour period of strong west winds. A Pacific cold front will
produce a west and northwest wind shift over western then central
areas Saturday, and over eastern areas Saturday night. After a
good shot at wetting precip areawide, and even soaking precip
over eastern, central, and northwest parts of the fire weather
forecast area during the latter half of this week, there will be
drying on Sunday as min humidities drop below 15 percent in some
west central and northwest locations. Minimum humidities will
climb above 15 percent on Monday and Tuesday as another surge of
moderate monsoon moisture crosses with the best chance for wetting
precip from southwest to northeast areas on Tuesday afternoon and
night. There will be northwest wind shift with another Pacific
cold front Tuesday night, then drier air with fewer storms on
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  84  59  77  54 /  80  60  80  50
Dulce...........................  78  48  71  45 /  80  70  80  80
Cuba............................  82  53  77  49 /  50  60  80  80
Gallup..........................  81  52  76  47 /  60  50  70  40
El Morro........................  78  53  74  48 /  70  60  80  60
Grants..........................  82  53  77  49 /  60  50  90  70
Quemado.........................  82  53  78  50 /  40  40  70  50
Magdalena.......................  82  58  80  55 /  10  20  60  70
Datil...........................  80  52  76  50 /  30  20  70  70
Reserve.........................  86  52  83  50 /  20  30  50  50
Glenwood........................  90  57  87  54 /  30  30  50  40
Chama...........................  73  47  68  45 /  70  70  80  80
Los Alamos......................  79  57  76  54 /  30  30  60  80
Pecos...........................  81  52  79  51 /  20  20  40  70
Cerro/Questa....................  78  51  76  49 /  30  30  50  70
Red River.......................  70  41  68  42 /  30  30  50  60
Angel Fire......................  73  37  71  42 /  30  20  40  60
Taos............................  81  52  78  50 /  30  30  40  60
Mora............................  77  48  74  48 /  30  20  40  60
Espanola........................  87  55  83  53 /  20  20  50  70
Santa Fe........................  82  57  79  54 /  20  20  50  70
Santa Fe Airport................  86  55  83  53 /  20  20  40  70
Albuquerque Foothills...........  88  63  85  59 /  20  20  50  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  64  86  60 /  20  20  50  70
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  58  88  55 /  10  20  50  70
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  90  63  87  59 /  20  20  50  80
Belen...........................  91  61  89  59 /  10  20  40  70
Bernalillo......................  90  61  87  57 /  20  20  50  80
Bosque Farms....................  90  58  87  55 /  10  20  50  70
Corrales........................  91  61  88  58 /  20  20  50  80
Los Lunas.......................  90  60  88  57 /  10  20  40  70
Placitas........................  86  59  84  56 /  20  20  50  70
Rio Rancho......................  89  63  86  59 /  20  20  50  80
Socorro.........................  92  63  89  61 /  10  20  40  60
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  82  57  79  54 /  20  20  50  70
Tijeras.........................  84  59  81  55 /  20  20  50  70
Edgewood........................  83  54  81  54 /  20  20  40  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  50  82  51 /  20  20  40  70
Clines Corners..................  80  53  78  52 /  20  20  30  60
Mountainair.....................  84  55  82  54 /  10  20  40  70
Gran Quivira....................  83  54  81  54 /  10  10  30  60
Carrizozo.......................  86  59  84  59 /  10   5  20  50
Ruidoso.........................  79  51  77  52 /  20  10  30  40
Capulin.........................  80  51  78  51 /  10  10  10  40
Raton...........................  83  51  80  51 /  20  10  20  40
Springer........................  86  53  83  53 /  20  10  20  50
Las Vegas.......................  80  52  78  51 /  20  20  30  60
Clayton.........................  89  60  86  60 /   0   0   0  20
Roy.............................  84  57  82  56 /   5   0  10  40
Conchas.........................  91  61  88  62 /   0   0   5  40
Santa Rosa......................  87  59  85  60 /   0   0  10  50
Tucumcari.......................  90  59  87  60 /   0   0   0  30
Clovis..........................  91  60  89  63 /   0   0   0  20
Portales........................  92  60  89  63 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  91  60  88  62 /   0   0   0  30
Roswell.........................  93  62  91  64 /   0   0   0  20
Picacho.........................  88  57  86  59 /   5   0  10  30
Elk.............................  83  54  81  56 /   5   0  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44