146
FXUS65 KABQ 062356 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
556 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this evening,
  Saturday, and Sunday across the eastern plains of New Mexico. A
  few storms will turn strong to severe with large hail and
  damaging wind gusts being the main threats.

- Showers and storms will expand to central and some western areas
  of the state Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Heavy
  rainfall will be possible in isolated areas with a low to
  moderate risk of localized flash flooding over recent wildfire
  burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Another day, another threat of strong to severe storms across
eastern NM this evening and into the early overnight hours.
Confidence in storms is slightly lower than yesterday at this time,
mainly due to lower severe parameters. The 20z mesoanalysis paints
up to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and roughly 50kts of 0-6km bulk shear
across eastern NM, with a lack of strong southeasterly surface flow.
With that in mind, any storm that is able to ignite will be capable
of large hail and damaging wind gusts, with a lower chance of a
tornado. The greatest confidence remains near Curry and Roosevelt
County, similar to yesterday. Storms that do ignite there should
move their way into TX promptly. Farther north into southeast CO,
a severe threat remains throughout the evening on the periphery of
a backdoor cold front, which pushes into our area during the
overnight hours. Severe storms become increasingly unlikely later
into the night, but there remains a slight to good chance of rain
across northeast NM through the overnight hours, mainly Union
County. With the backdoor front settling into eastern NM, an
additional round of low clouds are likely.

Saturday is very likely to be the driest day of the next several
days, with weak ridging building over the state. Even with that,
there remains a slight chance for a thunderstorm or two over
northeast NM in front of another moist backdoor front. Instability
and shear values are marginal, but do support a low chance of a
stronger to severe storm across the area, supported by the SPC Day 2
outlook. Elsewhere, warmer and drier conditions settle in, with
areas along and south of I-40 creeping above average (mid to upper
90s in lower elevations) and areas north remaining slightly below
average (low to mid 80s).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A series of moist backdoor fronts begin their assault on eastern NM
starting on Sunday and continuing throughout the middle part of next
week. Each front replenishes moisture across eastern NM, as well as
continuing to push the antecedent moisture further westward into the
central mountains and beyond. Along with this, upper level northwest
flow combined with moist upslope flow works to drive up the
precipitation chances across these ares beginning Sunday, peaking
Monday and Tuesday, then tapering off slightly each day beyond. With
this, a wet first half of the week is increasingly likely for the
central mountain chain. This also works to increase the threat of
burn scar flash flooding, with heightened confidence around HPCC,
though there is increased moisture and likely slow storm motions
forecast around the Ruidoso area, specifically Tuesday. PWATs are
forecast to rise above the 90th percentile per NAEFS percentile
climatology, which supports efficient rainfall rates and the risk of
flash flooding. Through each precipitation filled day next week,
locations west of the highest area of precip are more favored to see
gusty virga showers with potentially gusty outflow winds and a dry
lightning strike or two. Outside of precipitation, showers and
thunderstorm outflows likely work to help force these moist backdoor
fronts through the central mountain chain, inducing gusty gap winds
through the ABQ Metro area, most likely Sunday, Monday and Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Thunderstorm activity will be limited to far eastern New Mexico
this evening, mainly affecting KCVS, KCVN, and KCAO. Skies clear
out over most of New Mexico throughout the night, with prevailing
VFR conditions for all TAF sites except KTCC. A backdoor front
will once again push through northeastern New Mexico overnight
and bring in some low clouds for KCAO and KTCC. KTCC is forecast
to go into MVFR conditions during the early morning hours
tomorrow. Confidence is low for any visibility restrictions, but
far northern NM near KRTN could see some fog during the morning.
Much lower chances of showers and storms for tomorrow afternoon,
with eastern areas favored once again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A warming trend continues through the weekend, with only isolated to
scattered thunderstorms across eastern and northeastern NM each
afternoon. With low humidity values across western and southwestern
NM each afternoon, elevated critical fire weather conditions are
most likely. Precipitation chances continually increase each day
with a series of moist backdoor fronts entering northeast NM,
consistently replenishing moisture as well as pushing it further
westward. Wetting precip is very likely across the northern
mountains, specifically the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Monday and
Tuesday. Further west, the lower levels of the atmosphere remain
dry, increasing the chances for gusty virga showers and potentially
dry lightning. The highest chances for these virga showers remain
west of I-25, mainly Monday through Wednesday afternoon. Isolated
elevated fire weather conditions remain in place across the western
periphery of the state through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  86  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  41  81  41  84 /   0   5   0   5
Cuba............................  48  81  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  42  86  45  87 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  48  82  50  84 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  45  87  48  87 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  49  85  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  55  87  58  89 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  49  86  52  87 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  45  93  47  94 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  48  96  52  97 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  76  43  79 /   0  10   0  10
Los Alamos......................  55  81  57  82 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  50  81  54  83 /   0   0   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  45  78  49  80 /   5  10   0  10
Red River.......................  39  68  41  71 /   5  10   0  20
Angel Fire......................  35  75  35  77 /   0  10   0  20
Taos............................  44  81  45  83 /   0   5   0  10
Mora............................  44  80  48  81 /   0   5   0  20
Espanola........................  51  88  52  90 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  53  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  53  86  54  88 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  89  64  92 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  91  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  94  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  91  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  56  93  56  95 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  58  92  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  54  93  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  58  93  60  95 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  55  93  57  95 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  59  88  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  60  91  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  62  97  62  99 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  55  85  58  88 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  52  85  52  88 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  47  86  48  89 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  52  81  52  83 /   0   0   0  10
Mountainair.....................  53  85  52  88 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  51  86  52  89 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  59  91  60  94 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  55  86  56  87 /   0   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  47  76  49  78 /  20  20  10  30
Raton...........................  46  83  48  84 /   5  20   5  20
Springer........................  48  84  49  85 /  10  20   0  20
Las Vegas.......................  49  83  50  83 /   0   5   0  20
Clayton.........................  55  81  57  85 /  30  10  20  30
Roy.............................  54  81  53  84 /  10  10   5  20
Conchas.........................  61  87  58  91 /  10   5   5  20
Santa Rosa......................  58  88  57  90 /  10   5   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  59  85  58  90 /  20   0   5  20
Clovis..........................  61  88  62  92 /  30   0   5  10
Portales........................  60  90  61  95 /  30   0   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  59  92  60  94 /  20   0   5  10
Roswell.........................  65 100  66 101 /   5   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  59  96  60  96 /   0   0   0  10
Elk.............................  58  96  57  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...25