686
FXUS65 KABQ 011117 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
517 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 511 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

- Monsoon moisture remains over much of northern and central New
  Mexico today through Thursday, allowing for greater coverage of
  showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. These
  will be efficient rain producing storms which will increase the
  risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially over
  recent burn scars.

- Drier air sweeps in by the Fourth of July holiday and Saturday,
  limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before
  rain chances rise again on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Much uncertainly looms with today`s forecast, mostly with regards
to cloud cover over southeastern zones and the amount of
instability that will be present. An inverted trough is moving
sluggishly northwestward over Chihuahua, west TX, and southeast
NM. Deep moisture was already present over this area, but this
feature is only adding to it with PWATs of 1.1 to 1.5 inches over
much of the previously mentioned area. Abundant cloud cover has
already been filling in the inverted trough feature, and this will
likely limit diurnal heating and instability, keeping
precipitation on a tendency toward showery, and even occasionally
stratiform rain rather than discrete, deep moist convective cells.
Enough PVA and upslope east southeast winds look to keep steering
rainfall over our southeastern zones through the day and well
into tonight and beyond. With rainfall rates anticipated to be on
the lower side, often only a couple to a few tenths of an inch per
hour, am opting to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for the
Lincoln county burn scars. There is high confidence in lighter
rain and periodic showers over this area with high/likely POPs,
but low QPF and relatively low rainfall rates would be the big
difference maker today compared to a normal monsoon day. Outside
of the southeastern zones, most CAMs are not that enthused about
convection this afternoon. Perhaps, they are cueing on too much
cloud cover and under doing the instability, but even at this
early hour, satellite shows fairly quick clearing trends over
western and northern NM. The 00Z RRFS seems to have a better
handle on the instability, depicting isolated to scattered cells
over the western half of NM today.

Tuesday night`s precipitation looks to continue right on into
Wednesday morning over much of the southeastern third of NM as the
central remnants of the inverted trough work into interior parts
of the state. Into the afternoon Wednesday, precipitation would
tend to favor areas along and south of I-40, but uncertainty with
regards to instability will again be a problematic forecast
challenge. Thick cloud cover is modeled which would dampen
instability and also limit temperatures with MOS guidance having
trended down for Wednesday`s highs. The edges of the cloud shield
would likely end toward the western and northern zones on
Wednesday, and this would likely be the zones for better
instability (the RRFS is depicting this with scattered convective
cells on the edges with more light/stratiform rain to the east and
south).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Global models, the NAM, and even the RRFS are all indicating a
continuation of showers, and to a lesser extent storms, through
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the remnants of the
aforementioned upper level trough lift northward into CO. Surface
winds would have veered more southerly through this time, and in
the upper levels, a Pacific low will be moving inland toward the
lower CO river basin. This will cause the upper level winds to
turn more southwesterly and gain just a bit of speed (only up to
10 to 15 kt at 500 mb) with a small preceding shortwave trough
easing into NM early Thursday morning. By the afternoon, the
remnants of the Pacific low will be trekking into northern AZ.
Convection could key on the preceding shortwave trough and also
the interface of some drier air working into western NM.
Otherwise, an airmass convection regime looks likely over the bulk
of the forecast area Thursday.

The shortwaves will lift northeastward into southern CO by Friday
with more dry air sweeping into NM from the west. This will all
but shut down convection with PWATs largely dropping to 0.5 inch
or less. The southwestern and far northern mountains might be able
to support a high-based virga shower or dry storm or two, but the
outlook for rain is bleak on the Fourth of July holiday.

A weak, but moist surface boundary is still slated to enter
northeastern NM Saturday afternoon, and this will likely be the
only area that can generate convection. Into Saturday night and
Sunday, cold pools from this convection will advance
southwestward, and the extent that this cool, moist boundary can
travel will dictate Sunday`s convection. Last evening`s model runs
are less aggressive with the westward progression which could
limit storm potential into Sunday. For now, scattered POPs have
been retained over the central mountain chain and isolated
coverage over the southwestern peaks for Sunday. Into Monday, the
monsoon high will be setting up shop over NM with diffuse moisture
increases showing a modest increase in storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

A weak, but moist upper level disturbance is producing increased
clouds, areas of rain, and a few embedded thunderstorms over
portions of east central to southeastern New Mexico early this
morning. The coverage of rain is expected to expand in this area
through the late morning and early afternoon with a few fleeting
and temporary bouts of MVFR ceilings and visibility in occasional
downpours. Areas that could see more prolonged reductions would
include KSRR and KROW. In western New Mexico, heavier showers and
stronger thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon and early
evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of small hail, gusty
downburst winds, and brief heavy downpours. Areas of MVFR ceilings
and visibility will redevelop in southeastern to east central
areas late tonight as batches of rain increase along with patchy
fog.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Much better humidity recovery is underway this morning with most
areas expected to observe 80 percent or higher by dawn. The
exception would be in the San Juan basin of northwestern NM where
values would still reach 60 percent or so. Cool, cloudy, and rainy
conditions over east central NM will prevail today with more
breaks of sunshine and eventual afternoon showers and
thunderstorms taking shape in western to north central zones.
Storms should be more efficient at rainfall production in these
western and north central areas, and while footprints of rain
will still be rather small, the threat for dry lightning should
lessen considerably today. Cloudy conditions will likely expand
to more of central NM on Wednesday, keeping temperatures cooler
while elevating humidity. Rainy or showery weather looks to
dominate much of central to eastern NM Wednesday while western
areas could see more scattered heavy to strong thunderstorms.
Again, the footprints of soaking rainfall will be small in western
NM, but those that receive any will likely observe beneficial
downpours. Scattered to numerous storms are then forecast for
Thursday with the mountains faring the best with regards to
wetting rainfall. Drier air will then cease storm activity on
Friday, other than a couple of virga showers or dry storms in the
southwestern and northeastern mountains. A weak, but moist
backdoor front will then recharge storm activity in northeastern
areas on Saturday, eventually allowing cells to redevelop farther
south and west into Sunday and Monday of next week. Prevailing
winds over the next several days will generally be light to
moderate (10-20 mph) with thunderstorm outflows presenting strong,
but brief disruptions to this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  90  61  91  62 /  20  20  10  30
Dulce...........................  83  45  86  48 /  40  30  30  30
Cuba............................  79  52  82  54 /  30  20  30  40
Gallup..........................  86  51  85  52 /  20  20  30  40
El Morro........................  81  53  80  53 /  30  30  60  50
Grants..........................  83  52  83  53 /  30  20  50  40
Quemado.........................  83  55  81  55 /  40  50  70  60
Magdalena.......................  77  57  79  59 /  40  30  60  50
Datil...........................  77  53  77  54 /  40  40  70  50
Reserve.........................  88  52  85  54 /  50  40  70  50
Glenwood........................  89  56  88  58 /  50  50  70  50
Chama...........................  75  44  79  47 /  40  30  30  30
Los Alamos......................  76  56  78  58 /  40  20  60  40
Pecos...........................  72  52  74  54 /  50  30  60  40
Cerro/Questa....................  76  50  80  53 /  30  20  40  20
Red River.......................  67  42  70  44 /  30  20  40  20
Angel Fire......................  69  38  72  42 /  40  20  40  20
Taos............................  78  49  82  52 /  30  20  30  20
Mora............................  70  45  73  48 /  50  20  50  30
Espanola........................  83  55  86  59 /  40  20  40  30
Santa Fe........................  76  55  79  57 /  50  20  50  40
Santa Fe Airport................  79  55  82  57 /  40  20  50  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  62  85  64 /  30  20  40  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  84  60  87  64 /  20  20  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  86  60  89  63 /  20  20  30  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  84  62  87  64 /  20  20  30  40
Belen...........................  85  59  88  62 /  20  20  30  40
Bernalillo......................  85  60  88  63 /  30  20  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  85  58  88  62 /  20  20  30  40
Corrales........................  85  61  89  64 /  20  20  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  85  59  87  63 /  20  20  20  40
Placitas........................  81  60  83  62 /  30  20  40  40
Rio Rancho......................  84  61  87  63 /  20  20  30  40
Socorro.........................  85  63  87  64 /  30  30  40  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  54  78  56 /  30  20  40  40
Tijeras.........................  77  56  79  58 /  30  20  40  40
Edgewood........................  75  52  78  53 /  40  20  50  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  76  50  79  52 /  50  20  60  40
Clines Corners..................  68  51  72  53 /  50  40  50  50
Mountainair.....................  74  52  77  55 /  40  30  50  50
Gran Quivira....................  73  52  76  54 /  50  30  60  50
Carrizozo.......................  76  59  78  60 /  60  40  60  50
Ruidoso.........................  66  54  69  53 /  70  50  80  50
Capulin.........................  72  51  74  53 /  20  10  30  20
Raton...........................  76  51  79  54 /  20  10  30  20
Springer........................  76  53  79  55 /  40  20  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  71  51  74  52 /  50  30  50  30
Clayton.........................  78  58  78  60 /  20  20  20  30
Roy.............................  73  55  74  57 /  50  30  30  30
Conchas.........................  77  60  80  61 /  50  50  40  40
Santa Rosa......................  72  57  74  59 /  60  60  50  40
Tucumcari.......................  74  58  77  61 /  50  60  50  50
Clovis..........................  73  61  76  62 /  70  70  60  60
Portales........................  74  61  77  61 /  70  80  70  60
Fort Sumner.....................  74  60  77  61 /  70  70  60  50
Roswell.........................  76  64  79  65 /  70  80  70  50
Picacho.........................  71  58  74  59 /  70  60  80  50
Elk.............................  69  55  73  56 /  70  50  80  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52