276
FXUS65 KABQ 121139 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
439 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 428 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

- Freezing drizzle and freezing fog in far eastern NM may create
  slick travel for the morning commute. Moderate confidence in
  visibilities once again dropping for these areas.

- Gusty west to northwest winds during the afternoon will make
  travel difficult for large and high-profile vehicles on N/S
  oriented roadways.

- A stronger and wetter winter storm will impact the area Friday
  and Saturday. Impacts from snow are most likely in the western
  and northern high terrain while lower elevations will remain
  mostly rain.

- Gusty winds on Friday may also lead to areas of blowing snow
  and create hazardous driving conditions for mountain pass
  roadways in northern NM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

The morning commute for parts of eastern New Mexico will be impacted
by areas of freezing fog, causing low visibilities and slick
roadways. Some light snow showers could create minor travel impacts
for the higher terrain in western and southern New Mexico. Gusty
winds along the central mountain chain will create hazardous
crosswinds along N-S oriented highways, particularly for southern
and central areas. After a dry Thursday, a much wetter system looks
to impact western and central New Mexico through Saturday. Highest
snowfall totals are expected to be over the Tusas mountains. Breezy
conditions throughout the state on Friday as well with this system.
Weather clears on Sunday with temperatures warming back up to above
normal to start the week. The next system looks to impact northern
and central areas starting Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

The chaotic and challenging short term forecast will continue today
with impacts from freezing fog, gusty winds, and light mixed
precipitation in the form of drizzle, freezing drizzle, rain, and
snow. Water vapor satellite imagery indicates the longwave trough
over the western states with one embedded shortwave trough crossing
through CO and northern NM now and another upstream one diving
southward into Idaho. The Pacific front associated with the former
shortwave is also sweeping across central NM and quickly making its
way into eastern areas. This will pose a tricky scenario through the
post dawn hours, as the drying westerly downslope winds will attempt
to erode away low stratus, fog and drizzle in portions of the
eastern plains, but the backdoor segment of the front will be
gaining a reinforcing push from the north. This collision will
likely lead to a persistence of low stratus and fog over the
northeastern zones while remaining areas undergo a clearing in the
aforementioned westerlies associated with the Pacific front. The
challenge will be in east central zones such as Quay, Curry and
perhaps Roosevelt counties where the backdoor segment of the front
could plunge farther south/west than high resolution models are
suggesting, and this could keep low stratus and damp conditions
persisting there. Have built the forecast to account for some
persistence in eastern Quay, but Curry and Roosevelt undergoing
clearing and some consequential warming for today before the front
invades farther south and west again this evening. The other impacts
today will come in the form of winds, and will be issuing a Wind
Advisory to account for gusty conditions along the central mountains
and highlands, and will also add/extend the highlands of Lincoln and
far southwest Chaves county. Surface gusts up to 50 mph will
occasionally occur in these areas as strong winds aloft (700 mb
winds of 25 to 45 kt) have an easier time crashing via the
subsidence to the lee of these highlands. Some weaker perturbations
aloft are still being modeled to arrive via west northwesterlies
aloft, and this could introduce some isolated to scattered showers
in southwestern to south central zones with rain/snow/graupel all
being fair game. Overall QPF looks light, even less than yesterdays
runs, with most locations just receiving a couple to a few
hundredths of an inch of liquid equivalent.

As alluded to earlier, the backdoor front will push over more of the
eastern plains tonight with batches of broken low stratus trying to
expand. This could once again reintroduce areas of freezing fog and
freezing drizzle to these eastern areas, but the coverage would be
more scattered and likely more brief. The day shift will have to
watch this and how newer CAMs are resolving things for potential
Freezing Fog Advisories.

A brief, but welcome, respite in the active weather pattern will
grace NM with its presence on Thursday with drier zonal flow aloft
persisting. Surface winds would veer southerly in most zones, and
temperatures would warm up a few to several degrees, especially in
northeastern NM where readings will actually breach the freezing
mark. Western zones will rise close to seasonal values Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

Ample moisture from an atmospheric river along the Pacific coast
will make its way into our region as long wave troughing over the
intermountain west brings in a very wet storm system for western and
central New Mexico. With model soundings showing PWATS just under
half an inch for Friday along northeast New Mexico, QPFs have
trended up slightly once again. Snowfall looks to be limited to
areas above 7,500 feet as temperatures for most locations throughout
the duration of this system will be above freezing. Western ares
will get the bulk of the rain, and with PWATs in the 90th percentile
for this time of year, these higher rainfall accumulations will
bring much needed reprieve to locations that have been abnormally
dry this winter. The highest confidence for snowfall accumulations
will be for the Tusas Mountains and surrounding areas along the CO-
NM border. Ample diffluence aloft and upslope forcing should also
squeeze out 2-8 inches for parts of the western mountains, although
guidance has trended back on snowfall for these areas. On the other
hand, ensembles are really gung ho about possible major winter
impacts for the Tusas region, including Chama. It`s looking like a
slam dunk for 48 hour snowfall accumulations greater than 10 inches,
with about a 80% chance of accumulations greater than 20 inches. For
the highest peaks along the border, NBM percentiles once again show
about a 50% of exceeding 30 inches in 48 hours. Due to this high
confidence, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Thursday night
through Saturday morning for this region. Another player in this
system will be gusty winds near Wind Advisory criteria. As the polar
jet digs down into the Desert Southwest, a 140 kt upper level jet
streak will be overhead. Mid-level winds will be near 50 kts,
translating to gusty SW winds for mountains throughout the state.
Winds could also get a bit stronger for northeast New Mexico as a
sub 1000mb sfc low develops in southern Colorado. As a result,
blowing snow may lower visibilities and create hazardous driving
conditions for mountains pass roadways.

The system will clear the area by Sunday morning and push a backdoor
cold front through eastern New Mexico. The timing and strength of
this backdoor is still uncertain, so there is quite a bit of
temperature spread for highs on Sunday. Went with the cooler end of
guidance in anticipation that the models are once again slow on
frontal passage as they were earlier this week. As a result, highs
for eastern areas will be 5 to 10 degrees below average.
Temperatures then warm up to begin the week with dry condtions on
Monday as zonal flow takes over. The next trough looks to approach
in the middle of the week and bring another round of wintery
precipitation to northern New Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

Low stratus clouds and a wintry mix of precipitation are ongoing
over the eastern tier of New Mexico early this morning with VLIFR
to IFR conditions (ceilings of 200 to 1000 ft). These low clouds
and the associated precipitation will erode away in some east
central areas such as KCVN, KSXU, and nearby areas through the
late morning, but low clouds will persist into the afternoon over
much of northeastern New Mexico (KRTN, KCAO) into the afternoon
hours. Areas near KTCC will be right on the fringe with a couple
to a few hours of clearing late in the afternoon and evening
before the next cold front surges in. This front will reintroduce
scattered to broken low clouds and some areas of drizzle and
freezing fog late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds
will also pose aviation hazards today with gusty conditions area-
wide. Strongest gusts of 35 to 45 kt will be found in central
areas of the state, and especially over and near the central
mountains and highlands (KCQC, K0E0, KSRR) this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

Temperatures turn colder today, especially in northeastern NM, and
wintry precipitation will still impact the forecast area today as
upper level disturbances and the effects of a two-segment cold front
are felt. Despite the colder temperatures, dry air will sweep into
northwestern areas where humidity will plummet to 12 to 15 percent.
Breezy conditions will impact these low humidity areas in the
northwest, but no critical fire weather is anticipated today. Winds
will be considerably stronger across central areas of the state,
particularly the central mountains into the highlands (Clines
Corners/Vaughn) where gusts will reach 40 to 50 mph, but higher
humidity will be found in this area. Drier conditions with less wind
are forecast for Thursday. Temperatures will warm a few to several
degrees Thursday, and breezes will stay light to moderate (5 to 20
mph). Many locations within western and north central NM will have
an opportunity for soaking rainfall and hefty mountain snow Thursday
night through Friday and Friday night, as a moist Pacific weather
disturbance crosses. The eastern plains will largely miss out on the
rain and snow, while the northern mountains fare the best,
especially the Tusas where 1 to nearly 2 feet of new snow
accumulation will be possible above 9,000 feet. Colder temperatures
fill in on Saturday with lingering rain and snow showers, but the
weather pattern will turn drier and warmer Sunday into Monday of
next week. Breezy conditions are forecast on Monday with spotty or
marginally critical conditions being most likely just east of the
central mountain chain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  11  48  35 /   0   0  10  80
Dulce...........................  35   0  44  21 /   5   5  10  90
Cuba............................  38   9  45  27 /   5   0   0  60
Gallup..........................  44   8  52  28 /  10  10  10  60
El Morro........................  41  10  49  32 /  20  10   5  40
Grants..........................  45   9  53  28 /   5  10   0  30
Quemado.........................  43  12  52  33 /  20  20   5  20
Magdalena.......................  46  21  52  36 /  10   5   0  10
Datil...........................  42  15  51  33 /  20  10   0  10
Reserve.........................  45  10  54  29 /  30  20   5  20
Glenwood........................  46  20  58  37 /  40  20  10  20
Chama...........................  28  -2  37  19 /  10   5   5  90
Los Alamos......................  38  16  43  32 /   5   0   0  60
Pecos...........................  37  13  45  30 /   5   5   0  40
Cerro/Questa....................  31   6  40  26 /   5   5   0  60
Red River.......................  24   0  34  21 /  10   5   0  60
Angel Fire......................  27 -10  37  20 /  10  10   0  50
Taos............................  36   5  43  24 /   5   5   0  60
Mora............................  36   8  48  25 /   5   5   0  40
Espanola........................  45  12  50  29 /   5   5   0  50
Santa Fe........................  41  15  44  31 /  10  10   0  50
Santa Fe Airport................  45  13  47  30 /   5   5   0  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  25  50  40 /  10  10   0  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  50  24  51  39 /   5   5   0  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  52  15  53  34 /   5   5   0  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  22  51  38 /   5   5   0  30
Belen...........................  54  17  56  36 /   5   5   0  10
Bernalillo......................  50  19  52  36 /   5   5   0  30
Bosque Farms....................  53  14  54  34 /   5   5   0  20
Corrales........................  51  20  52  37 /   5   5   0  30
Los Lunas.......................  53  16  54  36 /   5   5   0  20
Placitas........................  47  20  49  36 /   5   5   0  30
Rio Rancho......................  50  21  51  37 /   5   5   0  30
Socorro.........................  55  25  58  38 /  10   5   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  18  45  37 /  10  10   0  30
Tijeras.........................  44  20  47  36 /  10  10   0  30
Edgewood........................  44  16  48  33 /  10  10   0  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  11  51  27 /  10  10   0  20
Clines Corners..................  40  14  46  32 /   5   5   0  20
Mountainair.....................  45  17  50  35 /  10  10   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  45  20  49  34 /  10  10   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  47  26  53  37 /  10  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  41  24  49  37 /  20  20   0   0
Capulin.........................  20   0  39  25 /  20  20   5   0
Raton...........................  30   3  43  23 /  20  20   0  10
Springer........................  36   5  48  25 /  10  10   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  40   9  47  28 /   0   0   0  20
Clayton.........................  20   2  41  27 /  40  10  10   0
Roy.............................  32   5  42  27 /  10  10   5   0
Conchas.........................  39  11  52  29 /   5  10  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  13  52  29 /   0  10   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  34  10  49  32 /   5  10  10   0
Clovis..........................  45  15  48  28 /   5  10  10   0
Portales........................  49  15  49  27 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  52  15  49  27 /   0  10   5   0
Roswell.........................  61  27  52  32 /   0   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  53  25  52  32 /   5   5   0   0
Elk.............................  50  25  56  32 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for NMZ227-228-
230>232.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for
NMZ210-213-214.

Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through late Friday
night for NMZ210.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening
for NMZ221>223-233.

Freezing Fog Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for
NMZ229-233>236.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ226-240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...52