Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
200 FXUS65 KABQ 051135 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 535 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 507 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Monsoon moisture increases today and Saturday producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall will threaten rapid rises on poorly drained arroyos and city arroyo systems, including the ABQ and Santa Fe metros. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity today and Saturday will increase the risk of burn scar flash flooding, notably over the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon and Ruidoso area burn scars. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 134 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 BLUF: Flash Flood Watch issued for Ruidoso area burn scars for today. Low forecast confidence remains for thunderstorm threatening flash flooding over the burn scars, higher confidence for Saturday. As advertised, TS Lorena has seen its circulation decouple with a ghostly remnant surface swirl off the Baja Peninsula coast with a large chunk of its mid-to-upper level moisture peeling away and moving northeast over northwestern Mexico. Latest numerical model guidance is showing the current blanket of high level cirrus across the southeastern two-thirds of the state will get pushed eastward toward TX thru the day Friday. Meanwhile, a potent cold front backing south and west into northeastern NM from CO will advance thru the northeastern quadrant of NM before being stalled by late Friday morning. Surface winds riding up the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts, coupled with a weak shortwave over the Four Corners area and stronger diurnal surface destabilization over northwestern NM will favor stronger and more robust CI along the Continental Divide and northern mountains of NM Friday afternoon. Widespread wetting footprints with embedded hot spots of 1.00" to 1.50" rainfall will blanket this area of the state, spreading into portions of the northern and middle Rio Grande Valleys late Friday afternoon and evening, including the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metro areas. This will increase the risk of rapid rises on arroyos, and city arroyo drainage systems. The Flash Flood Watch focused on the Hermit`s Peak/Calf Canyon burn scars remains on track given this setup as well. Further south and east along the south-central mountains remains a big question mark regarding instability. Guidance remains that high level cirrus will be late to clear from this area around mid- afternoon. Plus, the aforementioned cold front looks to stall well north of the south-central mountains, removing any mechanical forcing from upslope flow into the mountains. Hi-res time heights and model soundings for Ruidoso do show a steady clearing in the mid- to-upper levels of the atmosphere, and roughly 50% of hi-res CAMs show a spot shower or thunderstorm developing somewhere along the Sacramento Mts. Therefore, there is a fair to decent shot at a garden variety thunderstorm capable of producing flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars. Current likelihood is flash flooding over the most susceptible areas of the burn scar if such a thunderstorm should occur, with a widespread life-threatening situation only in an unlikely worst case scenario. A Flash Flood Watch will be issued with this forecast package for the Ruidoso area burn scars with low forecast confidence remaining. Numerous shower activity looks to persist overnight Friday into Saturday morning focusing over the central areas of the state. A secondary late round of showers moving along the advancing line of the surface cold front could again threaten the Ruidoso area early Saturday morning. The trend in model guidance showing the bulk of the slug of monsoonal moisture from the mid-to-upper level remnants of Lorena sticking south of the area over northern Chihuahua and far southern NM has remained true with the 00Z model runs. This is setting the stage for greater clearing over western and central NM. Greater surface diurnal heating combined with mesoscale disturbances moving west to east over the area will set the stage for more numerous afternoon thunderstorm activity developing along the Continental Divide and central mountain chain, except further south compared to what`s forecast for Friday. Healthier and stronger thunderstorms will track east, spreading over the Rio Grande Valley and central highland areas Saturday afternoon and evening threatening locally heavy rainfall. As such, another round of Flash Flood Watches for recent burn scar areas looks likely Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 134 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Conditions warm up and dry out west to east thru the day Sunday as the bulk of monsoonal moisture is replaced by a shortwave ridge of high pressure. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm activity will favor areas along and east of the central mountain chain. This weather pattern remains true for Monday before a shift arrives Tuesday. With a large synoptic scale trough entering the Pac Coast, large scale southerly flow looks to develop across NM at the surface. The latest 00Z suite of model guidance actually appears to advertise a potential severe weather scenario across western NM as afternoon thunderstorms developing along the Continental Divide would have a questionable amount of vertical shear to work with. Any shift eastward in the trough would increase the risk of severe weather, a shift westward would lower it. A slow progression of the upper level troughing pattern Wednesday and Thursday could keep this severe weather threat persisting each of these afternoons as well. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Broken to overcast skies persist this morning with lowering ceilings reaching into portions of northeastern NM behind a cold front backing south and west to KLVS to KTCC b/w 12Z to 13Z. Thereafter, numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor development along the Continental Divide and central mountain chain from the Sandia/Manzano`s northward along the Sangre de Cristo Mts. MVFR conditions will accompany this activity as it tracks east to southeast spreading into the Rio Grande Valley. Have gone prevailing showers for KSAF-KABQ-KAEG-KLVS with tempos pinning down the highest confidence time period for a passing thunderstorm. Lesser instability will be present over eastern and southeastern NM lowering chance for thunderstorms. Showers will be slow to wane over northern and central NM heading into Friday night, with steadily expanding shower coverage entering southern NM. As conditions calm, fog and mist will be likely to develop over portions of central and eastern NM early Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 134 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 No fire weather concerns today and Saturday with a large influx of monsoonal moisture arriving. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorm activity forecast each day. Drier and warmer conditions return to western and central NM Sunday and Monday with higher moisture holding onto the eastern plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 80 60 81 58 / 30 20 40 10 Dulce........................... 74 45 74 43 / 80 40 70 20 Cuba............................ 73 50 71 49 / 70 60 70 30 Gallup.......................... 77 52 76 50 / 30 30 50 10 El Morro........................ 73 51 72 50 / 60 50 80 40 Grants.......................... 74 53 75 51 / 70 50 80 30 Quemado......................... 75 51 73 51 / 40 40 70 30 Magdalena....................... 74 54 72 54 / 50 60 80 40 Datil........................... 71 51 70 49 / 50 50 80 40 Reserve......................... 77 52 75 51 / 50 40 80 30 Glenwood........................ 78 55 77 55 / 50 40 70 30 Chama........................... 67 44 67 43 / 90 60 80 30 Los Alamos...................... 70 52 68 53 / 80 70 70 40 Pecos........................... 67 49 68 49 / 70 70 60 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 66 47 67 48 / 90 70 60 30 Red River....................... 58 40 60 40 / 90 70 60 30 Angel Fire...................... 60 37 64 36 / 80 60 60 30 Taos............................ 71 48 70 47 / 90 70 60 30 Mora............................ 62 44 65 45 / 80 70 60 40 Espanola........................ 76 54 74 53 / 80 70 60 40 Santa Fe........................ 71 53 69 53 / 70 70 50 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 52 72 51 / 70 70 50 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 60 76 61 / 60 70 60 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 58 78 59 / 50 70 50 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 59 79 59 / 50 70 50 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 60 78 60 / 50 70 40 40 Belen........................... 83 58 80 56 / 40 60 50 30 Bernalillo...................... 81 58 78 59 / 60 70 50 40 Bosque Farms.................... 82 57 79 55 / 40 60 50 30 Corrales........................ 81 59 78 59 / 50 70 50 40 Los Lunas....................... 83 58 79 57 / 40 60 50 30 Placitas........................ 77 57 75 57 / 60 70 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 81 59 77 59 / 50 70 50 40 Socorro......................... 82 60 80 59 / 30 50 60 40 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 51 70 52 / 60 70 60 40 Tijeras......................... 74 53 73 54 / 60 70 60 40 Edgewood........................ 74 50 72 50 / 60 60 50 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 75 49 73 48 / 60 60 50 40 Clines Corners.................. 69 49 69 51 / 60 50 40 40 Mountainair..................... 73 51 72 51 / 50 60 60 40 Gran Quivira.................... 73 52 73 52 / 50 60 60 40 Carrizozo....................... 74 56 75 57 / 30 40 60 50 Ruidoso......................... 67 51 67 52 / 40 40 70 50 Capulin......................... 59 45 70 48 / 50 40 20 20 Raton........................... 64 47 72 49 / 60 50 30 20 Springer........................ 66 48 73 49 / 60 50 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 66 48 68 48 / 70 60 50 40 Clayton......................... 61 49 73 55 / 30 30 5 10 Roy............................. 64 49 69 51 / 40 40 20 30 Conchas......................... 72 54 76 58 / 30 40 10 30 Santa Rosa...................... 73 52 74 56 / 40 40 20 40 Tucumcari....................... 72 51 75 56 / 20 30 10 30 Clovis.......................... 78 54 76 59 / 20 20 10 30 Portales........................ 80 54 78 59 / 20 20 10 30 Fort Sumner..................... 79 56 78 59 / 20 30 20 40 Roswell......................... 81 60 81 62 / 20 20 20 30 Picacho......................... 76 55 74 56 / 30 30 50 40 Elk............................. 72 52 72 53 / 30 30 60 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ214- 215-229. Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24