514
FXUS65 KABQ 211154 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
554 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture will bring widespread
  heavy rain Tuesday through Thursday with a very good chance for
  scattered occurrences of flash flooding, as well as some main
  stem river and tributary flooding.

- The monsoon surge will continue at a less intense pace Friday
  with a continued threat of locally heavy rainfall, even as rain
  amounts begin to trend downward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A moist backdoor front will progress west southwestward through
eastern areas this morning, banking up against the east slopes of
the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia and Manzano Mountains by mid
morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
are forecast today across the far eastern plains, then storm
coverage will increase along and east of the central mountain
chain tonight. Behind the front, high temperatures across eastern
areas will trend up to 12 degrees cooler than Sunday. Readings
will cool a few to 5 degrees across western areas as well this
afternoon, as high clouds increase ahead of a low pressure system
moving into the Great Basin from the central CA coast. The
backdoor front is forecast to push through gaps in the central
mountain chain tonight with east wind gusts from 30-40 mph below
canyons opening into the central valleys from the east, except
potentially up to 45 mph in eastern Albuquerque and Carrizozo.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A dangerous surge of monsoon moisture is forecast to produce
widespread heavy rainfall over the forecast area Tuesday through
Thursday with a very good chance for scattered occurrences of
flash flooding, as well as some main stem river and tributary
flooding. The aforementioned CA low pressure system and a mid-
level high pressure system parked over eastern TX will draw very
rich subtropical moisture northeastward mainly along and east of
the continental divide; even as the upper low opens into a trough
while passing northeastward over the Great Basin and northern
Rockies Tuesday and Tuesday night. Wednesday and Wednesday night,
a disturbance embedded in the monsoon flow will track
northeastward across the forecast area. Thursday and Thursday
night, another upper level disturbance will eject northeastward
across the Four Corners from the Baja Peninsula. Due to this
active subtropical moisture fetch, GEFS Ensemble PWATs spike up to
200% of normal Tuesday through Thursday, except up to 250% of
normal Wednesday, with near record (if not record) PWATs likely.
The most likely rain amount Tuesday afternoon through Thursday is
currently forecast to be 3-4" from Ruidoso and Roswell northward
to around Las Vegas, Roy, and Clayton, except locally around 5"
over parts of east central NM. Amounts around 1-3" are forecast
westward to the continental divide, with lighter amounts west of
there. The NBM 90th Percentile (serves as an upper-end scenario
for planning purposes) indicates a 10 percent chance that some
locations along and east of the central mountain chain, and in the
lower Rio Grande Valley, may accumulate around 6-8" of rain, with
3-6" westward to the continental divide. With this forecast
package we issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of the area along
and east of the continental divide Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday, except for the far eastern plains where the Watch will
probably be expanded as later shifts extend it in time through
Wednesday night...and probably eventually Thursday.

Rain amounts should trend downward on Friday, but there are signs
of yet another disturbance tracking eastward over the central and
southern Rockies. Models depict PWATs beginning to trend downward
Friday, while remaining up to 160% of normal in the wake of
Thursday`s disturbance. This will be plenty of moisture for
locally heavy rainfall to occur and produce more flooding
problems Friday afternoon and evening, especially given all of
the antecedent moisture in place. Over the weekend drier air will
filter over the forecast area from the west, while the upper high
migrates southwestward over northern Mexico and a ridge axis
builds northward over NM. This will cause a sharp downtick in
storm coverage and rainfall intensity.

Temperature-wise, except for some near and above average highs
over central and southeast areas today, readings across the
forecast area for the remainder of the work week will vary from a
few to several degrees below 30-year averages. Highs should
bottom out on Wednesday around 10-20 degrees below 30-year
averages, which will place them mostly in the 60s to low 70s,
except for some 50s and upper 40s in the mountains. Readings will
rebound over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A gusty and moist backdoor front entering northeast NM will bank
up against the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and
Manzano Mountains this morning. A broad area of low clouds and
patchy fog producing MVFR and IFR conditions over northeast and
east central NM this morning will retreat toward the east and
gradually diminish on Monday morning, but probably won`t clear
Clayton until mid afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop over northeast NM this morning,
then shift over the far east central and southeast plains during
the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase in
coverage along and east of the central mountain chain tonight,
and may spread as far west as the Jemez Mountains. Also, easterly
upslope flow will result in areas of MVFR and IFR conditions in
lwo clouds and patchy fog across the northeast and east central
plains tonight. Further, east wind gusts from 25-40 KT are
forecast below canyons opening into the Rio Grande and Upper
Tularosa Valleys from Santa Fe southward tonight, including
Albuquerque and Carrizozo.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

With the gusty backdoor front entering the eastern plains this
morning, humidities will begin to rebound today. Therefore, the
main fire weather concerns will be erratic thunderstorm outflows
for the remainder of the week and the coming weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  78  55  77  55 /   0   5  50  60
Dulce...........................  77  40  74  42 /   0   5  70  90
Cuba............................  74  50  71  50 /   0   0  60  90
Gallup..........................  74  48  73  48 /   0   0  70  50
El Morro........................  72  49  70  47 /   0   5  80  70
Grants..........................  76  51  73  51 /   0   5  70  90
Quemado.........................  75  52  72  52 /   0   5  70  70
Magdalena.......................  76  57  72  55 /   0   0  70 100
Datil...........................  72  53  69  52 /   0   5  80  90
Reserve.........................  81  52  76  53 /   0   5  60  80
Glenwood........................  88  59  82  57 /   0   5  60  80
Chama...........................  70  45  67  45 /   0  10  70  80
Los Alamos......................  74  55  70  54 /   0  20  70 100
Pecos...........................  77  52  69  51 /   5  30  80 100
Cerro/Questa....................  74  48  71  50 /   0   0  60  80
Red River.......................  65  40  62  42 /   0   5  60  80
Angel Fire......................  71  34  67  35 /   5  20  80  90
Taos............................  76  45  73  46 /   0   0  60  90
Mora............................  74  49  67  49 /  10  50  70 100
Espanola........................  82  53  78  54 /   0  10  60  90
Santa Fe........................  76  55  72  54 /   0  10  70  90
Santa Fe Airport................  78  55  74  53 /   0  10  80  90
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  60  78  59 /   0  10  80  90
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  58  78  57 /   0   5  70  90
Albuquerque Valley..............  83  58  79  56 /   0   5  70  90
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  59  78  59 /   0   0  70  90
Belen...........................  82  57  79  56 /   0   5  60  90
Bernalillo......................  83  59  79  58 /   0   5  70  90
Bosque Farms....................  83  55  79  54 /   0   5  70  90
Corrales........................  83  58  79  58 /   0   5  70  90
Los Lunas.......................  83  57  79  57 /   0   0  60  90
Placitas........................  80  58  76  58 /   0  10  80  90
Rio Rancho......................  82  59  78  59 /   0   5  70  90
Socorro.........................  86  61  81  59 /   0   0  60 100
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  76  54  72  52 /   0  20  80  90
Tijeras.........................  77  56  73  55 /   0  20  80  90
Edgewood........................  79  53  73  52 /   0  20  80 100
Moriarty/Estancia...............  81  51  74  49 /   0  20  80 100
Clines Corners..................  75  52  68  51 /   0  30  80 100
Mountainair.....................  78  52  73  52 /   0  20  80 100
Gran Quivira....................  77  54  73  54 /   0  20  80 100
Carrizozo.......................  84  59  77  57 /   0  10  70 100
Ruidoso.........................  77  53  69  54 /   0  20  80 100
Capulin.........................  70  51  69  51 /  20  30  40  70
Raton...........................  77  51  73  50 /  10  50  50  80
Springer........................  79  52  74  52 /  10  40  50  90
Las Vegas.......................  75  52  67  51 /   5  50  80 100
Clayton.........................  72  55  73  56 /  30  30  30  80
Roy.............................  74  54  70  54 /  10  50  50  90
Conchas.........................  83  60  77  60 /  10  40  50 100
Santa Rosa......................  82  60  74  59 /  10  50  60 100
Tucumcari.......................  81  59  77  59 /  10  30  50  90
Clovis..........................  88  59  77  58 /  30  30  50  90
Portales........................  89  60  78  59 /  20  30  50  90
Fort Sumner.....................  88  61  78  60 /   5  40  60 100
Roswell.........................  92  63  82  61 /   0  30  60 100
Picacho.........................  86  58  76  58 /   0  30  70 100
Elk.............................  85  56  75  56 /   0  30  80 100

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon
for NMZ204-206>208-211-212-214-215-217>226-228-229-231>233-
237>241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44