Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
658 FXUS65 KABQ 030906 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 306 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 302 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Elevated fire weather conditions will be favored over western and central New Mexico this afternoon and again Monday. Expect very poor overnight humidity recoveries in western NM tonight. - There is high confidence in widespread moderate to major heat risk impacts, particularly Tuesday through at least Thursday, which may cause health issues for individuals without adequate cooling and hydration. Some areas will approach near record to record highs. && .UPDATE... Issued at 302 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025 In collaboration with neighboring TX WFOs and keeping in line with previous forecast thinking, opted to update the grids to include very low t-storm mention along the eastern state border, which will also provide better consistency with the SPC outlook. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 113 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 GOES satellite total precipitable water derived imagery depicts very dry air over the southwest U.S. has already taken residency across northwest and west central NM. PWATs over the area appear to range from 0.35 to 0.40 in. with drier air (0.15 in.) upstream over southern UT and northern AZ. Models depict this dry airmass will consume additional real estate by 18Z, or locales along/west of the I-25 corridor. By late afternoon, there should be a rather sharp moisture gradient across the ern plains, with PWATs around 0.75 in. holding tough along the CWFA border. While the official forecast will not mention storms due to low probs (<15%), some CAMs, including the HRRR, offer a few rogue storms. If something does pop across the eastern plains, MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg and 0-6 bulk shear from 30 to 40 kts will support a risk for large hail / damaging winds. The risk will be greatest in the northeast where these ingredients are juxtaposed. High temperatures will be 2-5F warmer compared to Saturday. There is notable model spread (4-8F) for MaxT along/east of a line from Union to Chaves counties, and is likely related to moisture and storm potential. At this point, the probability for a Heat Advisory in Chaves County (40%) is not sufficient enough for issuance, but should not discount the heat impacts, especially for those without adequate cooling/hydration. A convectively aided boundary from the TX/OK convection will push westward into the ern plains overnight, and this will impact high temperatures for Monday. This shallow boundary should be oriented from KRTN to KCQC to the Sacramento Mts by afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper high will be centered over the Upr Gila. Readings in wrn and central NM should be a tick warmer, but the ern plains will be 3-6F cooler as notable spread persists in the guidance. While no mention of QPF will be in the official forecast, one cannot ignore that a few hi-res models spit out light QPF along the sfc feature and moisture gradient. Most likely scenario is some cumulus/virga with gusty/erratic winds. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 113 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Upper high will strengthen to around 599 dam at 500 hPa and shift into southern Socorro/northern Sierra Co on Tues. Monsoon moisture will advect northward along its wrn periphery, with the main slug focused over AZ. That said, southwest flow should tug some of that moisture into the Four Corners area and possibly west central NM. This could offer a risk for cumulus/virga in this region with very low probabilities (<15%) for measurable QPF. Highs will once again be a tick higher in the west, while readings will climb 5-10F over ern NM. The probability for a Heat Advisory in Chaves Co currently sits at around 55% per the NBM. Overall, the ensemble mean and individual clusters are consistent with the upr high remaining anchored in the same area for Wed/Thur or near Socorro Co. With continued moisture seepage coupled with a daily recycling of this moisture, the chances for diurnally-driven showers and storms slowly improve across the western/northern mts, but activity may be fighting mightily against mid-level subsidence related to the strong ridge. Regardless, high temperatures will be 5-12 degrees above early August normals, pushing record values. While subtle in nature, ensembles start to diverge a bit on where the upper high migrates for late in the week. About 35-50 percent of members drift the upper high westward into southeast AZ, which would tug drier air over NV/UT/CO into northern NM, and offering a northwest flow regime over northeast NM, thus opening the door for a backdoor front to invade the ern plains next weekend. Meanwhile, other solutions keep the high in the same general area or drift it slightly to the east, essentially maintaining south/southwest flow across the western zones. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 113 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. That said, there are still localized impacts. LLWS should impact the KTCC terminal until just before sunrise. By afternoon, gusty breezes can be expected across the western/central terminals. A few storms will develop across the OK/TX panhandles with very low confidence that activity clips far eastern NM. Activity should stay east of the KTCC site, but associated outflow boundaries could play havoc with the surface wind forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 113 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon over western and central NM as MinRH drops into the single digits along with a few afternoon wind gusts. Six to 12 hours of RH values under ten percent can be expected in the northwest quadrant of NM. Expect very poor overnight recoveries throughout wrn NM, with some locales struggling to reach the mid-20 percent range. Similar humidity levels are expected on Monday with six to 18 hrs of single digit humidities over a slightly broader area. Afternoon winds could be a tad lighter, thus reducing the potential risk for elevated fire weather conditions. Regardless, dry and hot weather will support continued curing of fuels across the region. The mid-week period suggests moisture will start to creep into wrn and nrn NM. This will improve RH values, but likely not sufficient enough to produce widespread wetting rainfall from any storms that develop. As a result, new fire starts will be a concern along with gusty and erratic outflows. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 94 57 96 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 89 45 91 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 89 53 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 91 48 91 51 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 87 53 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 91 51 93 54 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 88 55 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 90 60 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 87 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 95 53 97 54 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 99 58 100 60 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 83 47 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 86 59 86 61 / 0 0 5 0 Pecos........................... 86 55 86 57 / 0 0 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 52 86 54 / 0 0 5 0 Red River....................... 75 44 76 48 / 0 0 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 79 38 80 41 / 0 0 5 0 Taos............................ 87 50 88 51 / 0 0 5 0 Mora............................ 83 50 83 51 / 0 0 10 0 Espanola........................ 94 56 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 87 59 88 61 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 91 58 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 94 65 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 96 63 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 98 63 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 96 64 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 98 58 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 97 63 97 64 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 97 58 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 97 63 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 97 59 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 92 63 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 96 63 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 100 63 99 66 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 88 57 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 89 59 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 89 54 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 53 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 85 55 85 57 / 0 0 10 0 Mountainair..................... 89 55 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 88 55 89 60 / 0 0 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 92 63 94 65 / 0 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 84 58 86 59 / 0 0 10 0 Capulin......................... 82 52 81 56 / 5 5 10 5 Raton........................... 87 53 86 54 / 5 5 10 0 Springer........................ 90 55 88 55 / 5 5 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 87 53 85 54 / 0 5 10 0 Clayton......................... 88 59 86 62 / 10 10 0 0 Roy............................. 88 58 83 59 / 5 5 5 0 Conchas......................... 95 63 90 65 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 92 60 89 63 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 91 59 87 63 / 10 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 97 63 91 65 / 10 10 0 0 Portales........................ 99 64 93 65 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 97 64 93 66 / 5 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 103 68 99 70 / 5 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 94 61 93 63 / 5 5 10 0 Elk............................. 92 60 91 61 / 5 0 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...46