609
FXUS65 KABQ 311000
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
300 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 256 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

- Rapid warming trend starting today and continuing through early
  next week. Record high temperatures may be threatened in some
  areas.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will create elevated fire
  weather concerns for east-central New Mexico on Saturday
  afternoon.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

Warmer and drier weather for the beginning of February as high
temperature records are threatened across the state for Sunday
through Wednesday. Windy, warm and dry conditions on Saturday
afternoon will lead to elevated fire weather concerns for east-
central New Mexico. Aside from some high clouds in the middle of the
week, skies should remain mostly clear for the period. Chances for
precipitation return for parts of northern New Mexico on Wednesday
and Thursday, along with some breezy westerly winds throughout the
area.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

A warming trend begins today. High temperatures today will be 5 to
15 degrees above yesterday`s readings for most areas, but northeast
NM could be as much as 25 degrees warmer. Today will be the first of
several without precipitation as well. Otherwise, lighter winds and
lots of sun on tap for today.

Overnight, westerly flow aloft will gradually increase. This will
allow a lee side surface trough to deepen over eastern CO and
northeast NM. West to southwest surface winds will gradually
increase over eastern NM after midnight, keeping temps from
plummeting entirely. High cirrus will also begin to move in from
west to east over the area overnight. Overall, tonight`s
temperatures won`t be quite as cold as this morning.

These winds will continue to increase on Saturday. The strongest
winds are expected to be along the I-40 corridor from KCQC to the
Texas border where gusts near 40-45 mph will be common. Most areas
will be a few degrees warmer than today, though these areas with
strong downsloping may see even greater warmth. All-in-all, high
temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

A fairly warm February forecast for the Land of Enchantment to begin
the new month. Pretty good agreement among ensembles for the upper
level pattern to be mostly zonal with some slight subtropical
ridging bumping up 500mb heights to 580 to 582 dm for the beginning
of next week. These anomalously high heights will allow for
temperatures to soar to 20-25 degrees above average for this time of
year. Temperature guidance has once again trended upward,
particularly for the eastern plains during the midweek period. As a
result, there is high confidence for temperatures to approach and
even surpass record highs at several locations throughout the state
for Sunday through Wednesday. Tucumcari and Roswell have about an
80% chance to see temperatures greater than 80 degrees on Monday
(TCC record is 78 and ROW record is 82). Meanwhile, Albuquerque has
about a 90% chance of seeing temperatures greater than 70 on Monday,
which would smash the previous record of 66. Tuesday could be a
little cooler with some high clouds streaming in from the west,
limiting diurnal heating, but forecast highs will still be
threatening records. Temperatures on Wednesday start to cool off a
tad as pressure heights start to decrease, but most guidance still
shows near record high temperatures for the eastern plains where
some downsloping may aid in bumping temperatures back to the 80s.
Ensemble clusters hint at some shallow troughing over the
intermountain west on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing down
temperatures closer to normal for this time of year. This
disturbance looks to bring some precipitation for the northern
mountains and windy conditions for large swaths of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 951 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

The storm system responsible for weather impacts to the airspace
over the past two days has exited the region. Northwest flow aloft
will relax and become more zonal the next 24 to 48 hrs. A cirrus
shield will spread eastward thru late Friday, otherwise VFR will
prevail with light winds. The main exception will be northerly
drainage winds at KSAF Friday morning near 25KT at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

Warmer and drier conditions begin today and will continue through
early-mid week. Westerly winds will increase on Saturday across east
central NM. Gusts between 40 and 45 mph mainly along the I-40
corridor and RH values falling below 15% will yield elevated to
critical fire weather conditions across the area. Fuels are the main
question, though, it should be noted that this area has received
little to no precipitation since early November, so it is quite dry.
Temperatures continue to climb Sunday through Tuesday with highs 15-
25 degrees above normal each day. With zonal flow aloft continuing,
breezy southwest to west winds will impact portions of eastern NM
each day, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. More
widespread breezy to windy conditions will return on Wednesday which
may bring near-critical to critical fire weather conditions to much
of eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  21  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  51  11  53  16 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  49  16  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  56  12  59  22 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  53  21  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  55  13  60  22 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  53  17  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  54  26  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  52  20  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  61  13  64  21 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  61  23  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  47  13  49  21 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  48  28  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  54  25  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  46  20  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  40  12  40  26 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  44   9  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  47  12  51  20 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  56  25  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  55  18  57  24 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  50  24  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  52  21  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  28  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  56  20  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  24  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  55  18  62  26 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  55  23  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  55  17  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  55  22  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  54  17  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  52  25  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  54  24  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  57  25  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  26  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  50  26  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  53  23  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  12  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  51  22  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  53  24  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  53  23  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  56  27  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  54  27  56  39 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  55  24  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  57  19  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  59  16  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  59  24  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  61  32  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  56  22  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  64  29  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  30  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  63  30  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  63  29  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  63  27  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  62  24  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  64  26  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  63  29  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  63  28  67  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...34