313
FXUS65 KABQ 260744
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
144 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- There is a moderate to high risk of flash flooding from slow
  moving thunderstorms over portions of western NM today.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of
  central and eastern New Mexico over the next seven days with
  high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues
  at varying coverages over the next seven days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 138 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms persist across portions of
western and central NM early this morning. These will continue to
slowly diminish through 4am or so, with only a few showers
lingering thereafter.

A tricky forecast is on tap today with regards to flash flooding
potential. The upper high should be centered over NE NM today but
will weaken ever-so-slightly to 598-599dam. Meanwhile, the weak
upper low/MCV that slowly shifted westward yesterday, and is
likely responsible for the ongoing precipitation across the SW,
will loiter around the AZ/NM border this afternoon. This MCV
could either 1. Keep cloud cover hanging around today limiting
instability this afternoon or 2. If clouds clear, could aid in
thunderstorm development. Latest models seem to favor the latter
scenario. However, ultimately, it comes back to the near record
breaking PWATs across the area, the slow and erratic storm motions
and the vulnerable areas that have been recently impacted or have
lower tolerance for rainfall amounts such as the Sacaton burn
scar. Thus, have opted to go with a Flood Watch for portions of
west central NM from noon to 9pm MDT. Additionally, strongly
considered adding the South Central Mtns around Ruidoso into the
Flood Watch, but there are a few more cons in this region. 1. It
is further way from the ascent due to the MCV, 2. Drier air is
pushing into eastern NM and 3. It looks more stable in this area
overall. Nonetheless, it should be noted that several CAMs show
precipitation across the South Central Mtns and the REFS LPMM is
especially concerning with over 1 inch of precipitation over the
Salt burn scar this afternoon. These amounts seem to be an
outlier, but would not be surprised to see at least light rainfall
over the scars and the next shift may need to re-evaluate the
need for a short-fused watch.

Temperatures will also be quite toasty today with triple digit
heat across much of eastern NM. It looks like all areas will
remain shy of needing a Heat Advisory today, but a Heat Advisory
will be needed around Roswell, Tucumcari and perhaps ABQ for
Monday.

Also on Monday, the upper high weakens to around 597 dam over
north central NM. What is left of the MCV should push a little
farther into AZ, which should limit it`s influence on
thunderstorms across western NM. PWATs should also lower slightly
(though still around an inch or just above). Nonetheless, another
crop of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the high
terrain though coverage should trend down a little bit more. It
does seem like more storms will roll off the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains (likely due to outflows) into NE NM than what will occur
today. The flash flood threat should be slightly less, but this
will depend somewhat on what occurs today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 138 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

On Tuesday, the upper high continues to meander over NM but
may weaken another decameter. In addition to the high terrain
storms, it also looks like a boundary over northeast NM will
become a focus for storms and heavy rainfall. That boundary will
likely get pushed southward with the convection Tuesday night, but
should loose its identity by Wednesday morning. The upper high
will continue to meander over NM through Thursday with daily
rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity focused over the high
terrain. The high will shift westward slightly on Friday and re-
strengthen to 599-600dam near or just southwest of the Four
Corners. This will open the door for another weak boundary to move
into NE NM late Thursday into Friday which will be an additional
focus for storm development on Friday. This boundary or perhaps a
different one may also be in play for Saturday across eastern NM.
All-in-all, typical monsoon hazard are in play through the week
including heavy rainfall, localized flash flooding and gusty
outflow winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue late this evening
across western and central NM. New storms are developing along and
outflow boundary across south central areas (near and south of
KBRG). Meanwhile, activity further west is slowly diminishing.
Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to stick around
through at least 09Z but a few showers may linger thereafter.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday.
Though overall coverage will be less than Saturday, storms will
remain capable of very heavy rainfall and IFR vsbys as well as
gusty outflow winds. Storms are expected to favor western NM, but
at least isolated activity will impact the Central Mountain Chain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
week or more. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
continue with heavy rainfall and erratic wind gusts possible.
With the upper level high meandering over NM for much of the next
week, storm motions will be slow and erratic. Storms will favor
the high terrain and move over nearby lower elevations areas with
the aid of outflow boundaries. Lightning may still cause new fire
starts where pockets of dry fuel still exist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  99  67  98  68 /  10  20   5  10
Dulce...........................  95  55  93  55 /  60  40  30  10
Cuba............................  92  61  91  62 /  30  30  10  10
Gallup..........................  91  61  92  61 /  40  30  10  10
El Morro........................  87  59  89  59 /  50  30  20  30
Grants..........................  91  61  92  63 /  40  30  10  20
Quemado.........................  87  60  89  61 /  60  40  10  20
Magdalena.......................  89  66  92  68 /  40  20  20  20
Datil...........................  85  61  88  63 /  50  30  30  40
Reserve.........................  93  60  93  60 /  50  20  30  20
Glenwood........................  98  64  97  63 /  30  20  30  20
Chama...........................  87  54  87  54 /  70  40  40  10
Los Alamos......................  91  68  91  68 /  30  40  40  20
Pecos...........................  91  62  91  62 /  20  20  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  90  60  89  61 /  50  40  40  30
Red River.......................  81  53  80  54 /  60  40  60  40
Angel Fire......................  86  51  85  52 /  50  30  50  20
Taos............................  93  60  93  60 /  30  30  30  20
Mora............................  90  59  89  60 /  30  30  40  20
Espanola........................  99  68  97  68 /  20  30  20  10
Santa Fe........................  92  67  92  68 /  20  30  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  95  65  96  65 /  20  20  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  98  71  98  72 /  20  20   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  68  99  69 /  20  20   5  10
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  68 101  69 /  20  20   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  99  71  99  72 /  20  20   5  10
Belen........................... 100  68 101  70 /  20  20   0  10
Bernalillo...................... 100  70 100  71 /  20  20   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  99  67 101  68 /  20  20   0  10
Corrales........................ 100  70 100  71 /  20  20   5  10
Los Lunas....................... 100  69 101  70 /  20  20   0  10
Placitas........................  96  70  97  71 /  20  30   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  99  70  99  71 /  20  20   5  10
Socorro......................... 101  73 102  75 /  20  20   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  65  92  66 /  20  30  10  20
Tijeras.........................  92  65  94  66 /  20  30  10  20
Edgewood........................  94  62  95  63 /  20  20  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  59  97  60 /  20  20  10  20
Clines Corners..................  90  61  93  61 /  20  20  20  30
Mountainair.....................  93  62  94  62 /  20  20  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  91  64  94  65 /  20  20  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  94  70  97  71 /  20  20  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  87  64  89  66 /  40  20  20  10
Capulin.........................  94  61  94  60 /  20  30  30  40
Raton...........................  99  60  98  60 /  20  20  20  30
Springer........................ 100  62 100  62 /  10  20  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  93  61  93  62 /  20  20  20  20
Clayton......................... 102  71 103  69 /   0  10  10  30
Roy.............................  96  66  97  66 /   5  10   5  30
Conchas......................... 103  71 106  70 /   0   5   0  20
Santa Rosa......................  99  67 103  67 /   0   5   0  10
Tucumcari....................... 103  73 106  72 /   0   5   0   5
Clovis.......................... 101  69 103  69 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................ 102  71 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner..................... 101  71 104  71 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 102  73 106  74 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  97  68 100  70 /  10  10   5   5
Elk.............................  94  65  96  66 /  30  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ205-
206-208.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34