Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
199 FXUS65 KABQ 242347 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 547 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 538 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will increase over northern and western New Mexico Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding, especially on the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon wildfire burn scar and nearby northeastern areas on Monday. - Cooler temperatures will accompany the increased clouds and areas of rain with many areas running 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Leftover cloud debris is currently outlining a weak cyclonic circulation (MCV) in southeast San Juan county. Looking more broadly, high pressure aloft continues to weaken a bit more, sagging southward of its recent Four Corners perch. On the northeastern periphery of this feature, a convectively aided shortwave trough will drop over the southern Rockies and into northeast NM this evening. This will keep the northern half of NM favored for showers and storms again through the evening with cells and clusters tending to drift slowly east southeast with a smaller subset sustaining themselves into the late evening and early morning hours Monday. The aforementioned shortwave trough will be moving eastward in tandem with a longer wave trough over the Great Lakes and OH River valley tonight into Monday. This will send a surface boundary into the southern plains and into northeast NM by late Monday morning, bringing moist, upslope flow to the Sangre de Cristos, highlands, and high plains to the east. PWATs will rise closer to 1.0 inch over the Sangres Monday with areas to the east jumping up to 1.2-1.4 inches. This easterly surface flow contrasted with light northwesterly flow aloft will introduce directional wind shear that will help sustain and prolong strong updrafts with a few strong to severe storms. CAMs show convective initiation early Monday afternoon over the Sangres before propagating eastward with multicellular clusters dumping heavy rain over the headwaters of the upper Canadian, Mora, and Gallinas rivers. Given the soil moisture has climbed significantly from yesterday`s rains over the Sangres plus whatever falls today and tonight, have opted to go ahead and issue a Flash Flood Watch for several of these northeastern zones. The front will spill into the upper and middle Rio Grande valley by early evening, inducing a gusty gap/canyon wind while also spreading deeper moisture farther west. Even in the late afternoon, convection is modeled to be fairly extensive along and near the Continental Divide of western NM, and the arrival of the moist front will only enhance this activity into Monday evening. Many northern zones could see showers and storms survive through dawn Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Much of eastern NM will be worked over and stable by Tuesday in the wake of the front and Monday/Monday night`s storms. The central mountain chain westward is modeled to destabilize into the afternoon hours, but copious leftover cloud debris from the previous morning`s rain poses considerable uncertainty that this would happen. By this time, the upper high would be situating itself farther southeast into TX with a southerly wind drawing up continued subtropical moisture into western and central NM which can often be shrouded with extensive mid level cloud cover. POPs remain high on Tuesday with temperatures trending down, but much of the rain could fall at considerably slower rates due to limitations on instability and increased stratiform properties. Wednesday is still modeled as the coolest day of the week with the upper high over west TX and a continued presence of deep monsoon moisture over NM as flow aloft turns a bit more southwesterly rather than southerly. This should keep many zones with considerable mid level clouds while western and central zones host the best chances for storms. Again, there are uncertainties with instability Wednesday, but model consensus points toward more likelihood of destabilizing, even with the cooler temperatures. By Thursday and Friday the upper high shifts back westward, somewhere near Sonora and Chihuahua with weak definition. Some westerlies would start to develop over the northern to central Rockies, perhaps introducing a bit of drying into northwestern or west central NM, but much of the monsoon moisture should persist in NM. This will keep the typical high terrain areas favored for diurnal convection while another weak wind shift aides the northeastern to east central zones through the end of the week and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although short-lived MVFR conditions are likely in sct/num showers and storms through this evening and then again Monday afternoon. A backdoor front will trigger thunderstorm development along the Sandia/Manzano Mountains late Monday afternoon, which will send strong outflow winds westward to KABQ around 23Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Very similar to yesterday, thunderstorms over the northern half of New Mexico are building and increasing in coverage this afternoon. Higher moisture and increased surface dewpoints will allow any cells to produce soaking rainfall, especially over high terrain northern zones today with scattered persistent showers and storms lasting into the early morning hours. By Monday, a weak surface front will catalyze an increase in storm coverage, first over northeastern areas before expanding over more of western and central high terrain areas into Monday night, Tuesday, and Wednesday. During this Monday to Wednesday time frame, much of northern and western New Mexico will have increased chances for soaking rainfall with isolated areas of heavy downpours and flash flooding. Humidity will also rise significantly these days with overnight recoveries of 80 percent or better in most areas Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning, and again Thursday morning. Humidity will start to reduce in far western NM zones Thursday afternoon into Friday, but remaining areas will still observe elevated humidity values with decent chances for additional wetting rainfall, just on a more scattered basis. While most wind concerns will be short-lived, originating from brief thunderstorm outflows, there will be recurring gap winds in some vulnerable central areas. Look for gusty conditions in these gap wind-prone areas such as Albuquerque and Santa Fe Monday night and again Tuesday evening when the weak frontal boundary and/or associated outflows spill in. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 89 65 82 / 50 50 70 50 Dulce........................... 51 84 52 77 / 60 70 80 80 Cuba............................ 56 83 54 78 / 60 70 70 70 Gallup.......................... 56 85 56 81 / 50 70 70 60 El Morro........................ 57 81 55 78 / 60 80 80 70 Grants.......................... 57 85 56 81 / 60 70 70 70 Quemado......................... 58 83 56 82 / 40 70 60 60 Magdalena....................... 62 83 60 82 / 30 50 40 50 Datil........................... 57 81 55 80 / 30 70 50 60 Reserve......................... 56 89 55 86 / 30 50 40 50 Glenwood........................ 61 92 60 88 / 20 40 20 50 Chama........................... 49 77 49 71 / 70 80 80 80 Los Alamos...................... 59 79 57 75 / 60 80 80 70 Pecos........................... 55 79 54 72 / 50 70 80 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 76 53 72 / 70 80 80 80 Red River....................... 44 67 45 65 / 70 80 80 80 Angel Fire...................... 46 70 47 68 / 60 80 80 80 Taos............................ 54 79 54 74 / 60 80 80 70 Mora............................ 50 73 49 68 / 60 80 80 70 Espanola........................ 59 86 57 82 / 60 70 80 60 Santa Fe........................ 61 83 59 77 / 50 70 80 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 87 57 81 / 50 70 70 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 66 89 63 83 / 40 60 70 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 90 64 84 / 40 50 70 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 60 91 59 87 / 40 50 60 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 91 64 85 / 50 50 70 40 Belen........................... 66 92 64 89 / 30 40 50 30 Bernalillo...................... 64 91 62 85 / 50 60 70 50 Bosque Farms.................... 61 91 60 87 / 40 40 60 40 Corrales........................ 64 91 62 86 / 50 60 70 50 Los Lunas....................... 64 91 63 88 / 30 40 60 30 Placitas........................ 63 88 60 82 / 50 60 70 50 Rio Rancho...................... 66 90 63 84 / 50 50 70 50 Socorro......................... 68 93 66 91 / 20 30 40 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 83 56 77 / 40 60 70 50 Tijeras......................... 62 85 59 79 / 40 60 70 50 Edgewood........................ 59 85 56 78 / 40 60 60 50 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 86 55 79 / 40 60 60 50 Clines Corners.................. 58 80 54 71 / 40 60 60 50 Mountainair..................... 60 85 56 80 / 20 40 50 50 Gran Quivira.................... 60 85 57 80 / 20 30 40 50 Carrizozo....................... 63 87 62 83 / 10 20 20 40 Ruidoso......................... 53 80 53 74 / 10 20 20 50 Capulin......................... 54 71 52 68 / 70 70 80 70 Raton........................... 53 75 53 70 / 60 70 80 70 Springer........................ 54 80 55 73 / 60 70 80 60 Las Vegas....................... 54 77 53 70 / 50 80 80 70 Clayton......................... 60 76 57 70 / 60 50 80 50 Roy............................. 57 78 56 70 / 50 60 80 50 Conchas......................... 63 87 61 78 / 40 50 70 40 Santa Rosa...................... 63 87 60 78 / 30 40 60 40 Tucumcari....................... 62 85 59 76 / 30 30 70 30 Clovis.......................... 66 90 61 78 / 20 20 40 20 Portales........................ 66 90 61 80 / 20 20 30 20 Fort Sumner..................... 67 91 62 81 / 20 20 40 20 Roswell......................... 67 96 67 88 / 0 10 10 10 Picacho......................... 62 90 61 82 / 5 10 10 30 Elk............................. 58 85 58 78 / 5 10 5 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for NMZ214-215-228-229-231-232. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...11