116
FXUS65 KABQ 240720
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
120 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Increasing risk of flash flooding from slow moving thunderstorms
  over portions of central and western NM this weekend.

- Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of
  central and eastern New Mexico through the 7 day period due to
  high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms threatening lightning,
  gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues
  at varying coverages through the 7 day period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 119 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Synoptic scale view shows the monsoon high centered squarely over
west-central NM early this morning, with a weak MCS like feature
still generating showers and thunderstorms over the OK/TX Panhandles
stretching westward into northeastern NM. Abundant monsoonal
moisture lingers across the state, evident by Td`s in the 50s to low
60s all across NM. PWs in the 1.00" to 1.25" range also lay across a
majority of central and western NM with higher values upwards of
1.40" to 1.50" closer to the TX border. So concerning today`s
afternoon thunderstorm potential, we`ll go west to east across the
state. With the proximity of the center of the monsoon high right
along the central portion of the NM/AZ border, afternoon
thunderstorms developing over the high terrain along and west of the
Rio Grande Valley will favor short lifespans with small wetting
footprints. In other words, storms will be slow movers, not lasting
long, but still threatening to dump what rain they do have in one
localized area. Given the wet antecedent ground conditions in this
part of the state, there remains a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall and flash flooding where these isolated pockets of heavier
rain fall in the wrong already soaked areas. Thunderstorms
developing along the central mountain chain, including over the HPCC
burn scar in the Sangre de Cristo`s and Ruidoso area burn scars in
the Sacramento`s, will be slightly longer lived. Drier ground
conditions in the area of the HPCC burn scar, and likely pop-corn
like convective behavior of storms near Ruidoso today will help in
reducing the risk of burn scar flash flooding there today enough to
not warrant a Flood Watch issuance at this time. All told for these
three areas of flash flooding concern, while a Flood Watch is not
issued, the risk is still non-zero. Otherwise, Friday features hot
temperatures for southeastern NM, and Heat Advisory is in effect for
the Chaves County Plains (Roswell) where forecast highs are near or
just above 105F.

Further east along the NM/TX border, numerical model guidance
continues to advertise CI along a surface convergent boundary this
afternoon. In particular, the NAM12 and GFS maintain in the latest
runs an evolution of this convective activity into a MCV tonight
into Saturday morning. This will act to favor continued shower and
thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of east-central NM and Caprock
well into tonight. The remnants of this MCV feature looks to
continue to spin over east-central NM while the centroid of the
monsoon high migrates northward over CO. This will introduce a
favorable scenario for mid to upper level atmospheric stretching
over central and west-central NM Saturday afternoon, yielding
scattered to numerous thunderstorm development. With PWs climbing
into the 1.25" to 1.40" range in this area, conditions will favor
thunderstorms being very efficient rain producers in this area. WPC
currently has a slight risk area of excessive rainfall for this
setup over west-central NM Saturday afternoon. HiRes CAM solutions
of the HREF/RRFS currently do not depict overly concerning QPF
amounts (modeled rainfall amounts) over west-central NM, which seem
to disagree with the numerical model mesoscale setup. This is
lowering forecast confidence some, but the antecedent ground
conditions should keep an elevated level of flash flood concern
Saturday across west-central NM. Elsewhere, robust thunderstorm
development near the Ruidoso area burn scars will also increase the
risk burn scar flash flooding there Saturday as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 119 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Sunday sees the remnants of the aforementioned MCV/disturbance still
over west-central NM, likely enhancing afternoon thunderstorm
activity there again another day. Another round of flash flooding
impacts from slow moving and rain efficient storms will need to be
watched in this area again Sunday afternoon. Lesser storm coverage
will be favored further east along and east of the central mountain
chain where highs climb back into the low 100s.

Thereafter, next week will feature a dominant monsoon high loitering
over the Four Corners region or just east of there. Daily rounds of
afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain before
moving westward to southwestward over surrounding lower elevations
will be the rule each day. Moderate to high heat risk will remain
over the lower elevations of central and eastern NM where highs
climb into the upper 90s to low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

There are a few lingering sporadic showers and thunderstorms this
hour, expected to slowly clear thru the next few hours heading
into Friday morning. There`s a low chance for fog development over
portions of the forecast area tonight with satellite imagery showing
more clearing skies relative to recent nights. AMDs may be
necessary for this, but it is a low enough chance to not include
in any of the TAFs. Friday sees another round of afternoon
thunderstorms developing over the high terrain, meandering over
surrounding lower elevations late afternoon and evening. Localized
IFR/MVFR conditions will accompany any of the stronger storms,
and PROB30s are included to account for this. Convective activity
lingers well into Friday evening toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

No fire weather concerns thru the next 7 days with the monsoon high
over the region. Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity
will continue to favor development over the high terrain before
moving over surrounding lower elevations. Relatively shorter lived
thunderstorms today will give way to longer lived and more rain
efficient producing storms this weekend, threatening flash flooding
in areas of central and western NM. Fair to good recoveries will be
featured each morning, while highs climb into the upper 90s to low
100s for lower elevation areas each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  68  97  68 /  10  20  10  20
Dulce...........................  94  56  94  55 /  20  30  50  20
Cuba............................  90  61  90  61 /  20  30  40  30
Gallup..........................  90  61  91  59 /  30  20  30  30
El Morro........................  86  60  87  59 /  40  30  70  50
Grants..........................  90  63  91  61 /  30  20  40  40
Quemado.........................  87  62  88  59 /  30  30  70  60
Magdalena.......................  90  67  89  66 /  50  50  60  50
Datil...........................  86  62  86  61 /  60  50  80  50
Reserve.........................  95  62  94  60 /  30  30  80  50
Glenwood........................  99  66  98  63 /  20  30  70  60
Chama...........................  85  54  85  54 /  70  30  60  20
Los Alamos......................  88  66  88  66 /  50  30  50  30
Pecos...........................  90  60  88  59 /  70  40  70  30
Cerro/Questa....................  85  58  86  60 /  60  20  60  20
Red River.......................  76  50  77  52 /  70  20  70  20
Angel Fire......................  81  47  82  49 /  80  40  70  20
Taos............................  88  58  89  58 /  50  30  60  20
Mora............................  86  57  85  57 /  70  40  70  30
Espanola........................  95  67  95  66 /  30  30  40  20
Santa Fe........................  90  64  89  65 /  50  40  70  20
Santa Fe Airport................  93  64  92  63 /  30  30  50  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  98  71  96  70 /  20  40  60  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  70  96  68 /  20  40  50  40
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  69  99  67 /  20  30  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  99  71  97  70 /  20  30  40  40
Belen...........................  99  69  98  67 /  20  30  30  40
Bernalillo...................... 100  69  98  69 /  20  40  40  40
Bosque Farms....................  99  67  97  65 /  20  30  30  40
Corrales........................ 100  70  99  69 /  20  30  40  40
Los Lunas.......................  99  68  97  67 /  20  30  30  40
Placitas........................  95  68  94  69 /  20  40  50  40
Rio Rancho......................  99  70  98  69 /  20  30  40  40
Socorro......................... 102  74 101  72 /  30  30  30  50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  92  63  90  64 /  40  50  70  40
Tijeras.........................  92  64  91  64 /  30  50  60  40
Edgewood........................  94  61  92  60 /  50  50  70  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  59  93  57 /  40  40  70  50
Clines Corners..................  90  60  88  59 /  50  40  70  40
Mountainair.....................  94  62  92  60 /  50  50  70  50
Gran Quivira....................  92  62  90  62 /  40  50  60  50
Carrizozo.......................  96  69  93  67 /  20  40  50  40
Ruidoso.........................  89  64  86  63 /  50  30  70  30
Capulin.........................  86  58  88  60 /  40  30  30  10
Raton...........................  91  58  92  58 /  50  30  30  10
Springer........................  93  59  93  60 /  40  40  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  90  60  88  59 /  60  40  60  40
Clayton.........................  95  67  97  69 /  20  20  10  10
Roy.............................  91  63  91  64 /  50  30  30  20
Conchas......................... 100  69  99  68 /  30  50  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  97  67  94  66 /  30  60  30  20
Tucumcari....................... 102  70 100  71 /  30  40  20  30
Clovis.......................... 103  69  97  69 /  30  50  20  10
Portales........................ 104  70  98  70 /  30  50  20  10
Fort Sumner..................... 102  70  98  70 /  20  40  20  20
Roswell......................... 106  74 100  73 /  20  30  10   5
Picacho......................... 100  68  95  67 /  30  20  30  10
Elk.............................  97  66  93  64 /  30  10  40  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24