897
FXUS65 KABQ 190756
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
156 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 115 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

- Moderate to high flash flood threat will continue below recent
  burn scars today and Wednesday.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today will then
  focus along and west of the central mountain chain Wednesday
  then mainly along the Continental Divide Thursday. A few strong
  storms with localized flash flooding are possible each day.

- Increasing high temperatures mid to late-week will elevate the
  threat for moderate heat risk in most lower elevation locations
  with major heat risk possible in the Four Corners region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a moisture axis stretching
from northeast to southwest across NM with an upper level high
centered over northwest NM. 00Z guidance shows the high center
building to near 597dm today while drifting north into southwest
CO. At the surface, moist southeasterly flow will continue to
advect moisture northwest toward central NM. Another crop of
showers and storms is expected to develop over the high terrain
of central and western NM then develop south and westward into
nearby plains and valleys on convective outflows. There is better
agreement on instability today so confidence is slightly higher
that more robust convection will develop between the central mt
chain and Cont Dvd, including northeast NM where a couple strong
storms are possible. The bulk of hi-res models also show storms
developing over the high terrain south and west of Ruidoso then
moving southwest away from burn scars. NBM, RRFS, HRRR, and HREF
probabilities for QPF >0.25" are 20-50% so forecast confidence is
not high enough to hoist a Flash Flood Watch. Showers and storms
will persist til sunset then slowly dissipate after midnight
across central and southwest NM.

By Wednesday, the H5 high center is expected to continue drifting
north into west-central CO. A 40kt speed max rounding the eastern
edge of the upper high will drag drier mid and upper level air into
northeast and east-central NM. Deeper moisture still in place over
central and western NM along with forcing along the upper level
speed max may lead to another day of more vigorous convection along
and west of the central mt chain. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
again with any of the stronger cells as PWATs are averaging near 1".
Steering flow will be favorable for allowing storms that develop
south and west of Ruidoso to move away from burn scars again but
this will be re-evaluated with the latest guidance later today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The latest NBM auto-populated grid forecast continues trending
storm coverage downward for the vast majority of the region
Thursday and Friday. However, the focus does shift into northwest
NM as the H5 high weakens and drifts west more into UT. This may
allow storms that develop along the Cont Dvd and San Juan Mts of
CO to move southwest toward Farmington and Gallup in the late
afternoon. Meanwhile, drier and more stable air is shown spreading
into much of eastern and southern NM both days.

Forecast confidence drops off quickly by the weekend and early
next week as guidance is indicating a significant uptick in storm
coverage. The H5 high center attempts to weaken and drift south
toward southeast AZ and northern Chihuahua while northwest flow
develops along the Front Range and eastern NM. Abundant moisture
spreads southwest into CO and NM along a moist backdoor front and
mid level shortwave trough. NBM probabilities for >0.25" increase
Saturday thru Tuesday over all the high terrain and eastern NM.
Max temps cool near to slightly below normal during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Lingering SHRA/TS over eastern NM will dissipate while moving
slowly southwest thru sunrise. Patchy mid level cloud decks will
persist thru sunrise within central and eastern NM. A few patches
of MVFR low cigs may develop along the east slopes of the central
mt chain and around KTCC and KCAO but probabilities are <15%.
Partial clearing after sunrise will give way to another round of
scattered to numerous SHRA/TS over the higher terrain by 11am.
This activity will move slowly southwest while developing on
convective outflows into nearby highlands and valleys thru sunset.
A second area of SHRA/TS may develop over eastern NM after sunset
then also move southwest thru midnight. Direct hits from any
storms Tuesday afternoon may produce brief MVFR vsbys with heavy
rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The risk for burn scar flooding will be moderate to high today and
Wednesday. Storms that form near Ruidoso may move southwest away
from the area both days while HPCC has a slightly better chance
for activity to move southward down the burn scar. Meanwhile, very
dry conditions will persist over the Four Corners thru Wednesday
with above normal temperatures. Storm coverage may increase again
over northwest NM and the northern mountains Thursday through
Saturday. Upper level high pressure centered near the Four Corners
region this week will allow storm motions to be generally from
northeast to southwest. Daily min humidity will average 15-20%
across western NM thru Wednesday before trending a little higher
each day thru the weekend. Overnight recoveries are expected to be
good across the west and excellent east of the central mt chain.
Confidence in the extended forecast is low to moderate but there
are indications of a possible wetter and cooler pattern for much
of the region early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  98  67  96  65 /   0  10  10  10
Dulce...........................  93  52  91  52 /  10  20  30  20
Cuba............................  88  56  88  58 /  30  20  30  20
Gallup..........................  92  58  91  57 /  20  30  30  20
El Morro........................  87  58  86  56 /  30  30  30  30
Grants..........................  90  58  89  57 /  20  30  30  20
Quemado.........................  87  57  86  57 /  50  30  40  30
Magdalena.......................  85  62  85  62 /  40  40  30  10
Datil...........................  83  56  83  57 /  50  40  40  20
Reserve.........................  88  55  89  56 /  70  40  60  20
Glenwood........................  91  59  92  60 /  70  40  60  20
Chama...........................  84  49  83  50 /  20  20  40  20
Los Alamos......................  85  60  85  62 /  40  30  40  20
Pecos...........................  83  55  83  55 /  60  40  40  20
Cerro/Questa....................  82  53  83  55 /  50  20  30  10
Red River.......................  72  46  73  46 /  70  20  40  10
Angel Fire......................  76  41  77  40 /  70  20  40  10
Taos............................  85  52  85  53 /  40  20  30  10
Mora............................  78  50  78  50 /  70  40  40  20
Espanola........................  92  59  92  60 /  40  30  30  10
Santa Fe........................  84  59  84  62 /  40  40  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  89  58  88  60 /  30  40  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  67  91  67 /  20  40  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  68  92  68 /  20  40  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  66  93  67 /  20  40  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  66  92  68 /  20  40  20  10
Belen...........................  94  64  93  64 /  20  40  10  10
Bernalillo......................  93  65  93  67 /  20  40  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  93  62  93  64 /  20  40  10  10
Corrales........................  93  65  93  67 /  20  40  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  93  63  93  65 /  20  40  10  10
Placitas........................  90  64  89  64 /  20  40  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  92  66  93  68 /  20  40  20  10
Socorro.........................  94  66  94  67 /  30  40  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  59  84  61 /  30  40  30  10
Tijeras.........................  87  61  86  63 /  30  40  30  20
Edgewood........................  86  57  86  57 /  30  40  30  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  54  87  55 /  30  30  30  10
Clines Corners..................  81  57  81  58 /  30  30  20  10
Mountainair.....................  85  58  85  58 /  40  40  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  83  57  83  57 /  40  40  30  10
Carrizozo.......................  85  62  85  61 /  40  30  40  10
Ruidoso.........................  78  56  77  57 /  50  40  50  10
Capulin.........................  83  55  81  55 /  50  30  20   5
Raton...........................  86  55  85  55 /  50  30  20   5
Springer........................  86  54  87  55 /  60  30  20   5
Las Vegas.......................  82  53  82  55 /  70  40  30  10
Clayton.........................  88  62  88  62 /  30  30  10   5
Roy.............................  85  58  85  58 /  50  40  20   5
Conchas.........................  92  64  91  64 /  30  40  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  89  62  88  61 /  30  40  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  89  62  88  62 /  20  40  10   5
Clovis..........................  92  66  90  65 /  20  30  20  10
Portales........................  93  66  90  65 /  20  30  30  10
Fort Sumner.....................  91  66  90  65 /  20  40  10   5
Roswell.........................  95  69  93  68 /  20  30  20  10
Picacho.........................  88  62  87  62 /  30  40  30  10
Elk.............................  83  59  82  57 /  50  30  50  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42