994
FXUS65 KABQ 121125 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
525 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related illness for sensitive
  populations Tuesday and Wednesday across the lower elevations of
  central and eastern NM due to near-record heat.

- Localized strong and erratic wind gusts from isolated showers
  and storms, with little to no rainfall, late Wednesday across
  much of western and northern New Mexico.

- Low to moderate chance (30-50%) of critical fire weather
  conditions in northern and eastern New Mexico Thursday. Low
  chance (20-30%) on Sunday and Monday across much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Clear skies prevail around New Mexico tonight thanks to a ridge that
is currently centered over southwest NM. The low humidity combined
with clear skies and light winds will allow strong valley inversions
to develop so temps in valley floors will likely drop off within the
next few hours. The cool morning will be short-lived as temps
rapidly climb today. Highs will be warmer than the past several
days, with 80s and 90s everywhere except the high mountains. A few
locations could even break records, including at Santa Fe and
Farmington where highs of 89F and 91F are forecast, respectively.
Some moisture will try to sneak up under the ridge into southwest NM
in the afternoon, which could spark a couple of high based virga
showers in the southwest mountains.

Tuesday night will be another clear and calm night around the
region. Moisture will quietly be sneaking up from the south, with
the main plume of moisture focusing over western NM where PWATs will
rise up to as much as 250% of normal per the GEFS mean. Hi-res
models are showing a quite extensive coverage of virga showers in
the western two-thirds of the state during the afternoon hours of
Wednesday. There should be just enough instability for a few strikes
of lightning as well. Given 700 mb dewpoint depressions in excess of
25C and sfc humidities below 20%, wetting rain is very unlikely and
any high based showers and storms are more likely to produce strong
outflow wind gusts than rain. Given the coverage, a series of virga
showers could produce pockets of blowing dust near dust sources. The
increase cloud coverage will keep temps down a degree or two in most
areas, but it will still be a hot day with moderate heat risk along
the Rio Grande Valley from Albuquerque southward and in southeastern
NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 110 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

The ridge over the southern Rockies will break down late week, being
replaced by quasi-zonal flow, with the subtropical jet over northern
Mexico and the polar jet over the northern Rockies. Winds will trend
slightly stronger, but with the main sub-tropcial jet to the south,
700 mb winds will only be around 20-30 kts. It will be enough to
create southwest to west breezes around the region and the
downsloping breeze will make it quite toasty in the eastern plains,
with 90s all the way up in Clayton. The moisture plume from the
south will be tilted Thursday in response to the sub-tropical jet
and this will allow a drier airmass to push in from the west. There
could be a few gusty showers in far eastern NM on the periphery of
this moisture, but it will generally be much drier.

The pattern remains largely unchanged Friday and Saturday with
breezy and seasonably warm conditons continuing. There is evidence
that the pattern will change Sunday into the early part of next week
as a longwave trough develops over the western CONUS. This time of
year, this is often an early indicator of a fire weather pattern
with dry southwest flow and strong winds over New Mexico, but that
may not be the case this time around since there is already some
moisture moving up from the south and that could be enough to
prevent significant drying. Furthermore, some models are not showing
a significant longwave trough and instead keep weaker quasi-zonal
flow overhead. Overall, ensemble data is very mixed and uncertainty
in the synoptic pattern remains high in the 7-10 day range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period.
With a ridge of high pressure overhead, light winds will prevail
around the area today. A weak backdoor front will push into
eastern NM this evening which could create a brief period of gap
winds through the central mtn chain between 09Z and 14Z tonight.
Very isolated high based showers may develop in the high terrain
of SW NM this afternoon, producing localized gusty outflow winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Today will be very dry and warm with near record highs and afternoon
humidities in the single digits almost everywhere outside of the
high mountains. The ridge centered over New Mexico today will begin
to break down on Wednesday, allowing moisture to sneak up from the
south. This will create scattered to even widespread virga showers
in the western two-thirds of the state and pockets of instability
could result in a few dry lightning strikes in the western and
northern high terrain.

A few gusty showers could develop in far eastern NM on Thursday
afternoon, but most areas will be clear as a drier airmass pushes in
from the west. West winds will trend stronger as this dry airmass
pushes in so there is still a low to moderate chance of critical
fire weather conditions on Thursday, with the highest likelihood in
the Central and Northeast Highlands where it will be windiest.

Winds trend weaker on Friday, but will likely trend up again
slightly over the weekend, creating widespread elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions. Sunday has trended drier as well
as models are delaying the uptick in moisture. There are low chances
of high based showers and a few storms early next week in the
eastern half of the state. Model uncertainty remains high in the 7-
10 day range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  52  88  51 /   0   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  88  41  86  43 /   0   0   5  20
Cuba............................  86  49  83  48 /   0   0  10  10
Gallup..........................  89  48  84  43 /   0   0  10   5
El Morro........................  86  52  81  48 /   5   0  20   5
Grants..........................  89  51  85  48 /   5   0  20  10
Quemado.........................  86  50  81  46 /   5  10  20  10
Magdalena.......................  85  57  83  54 /  10   5   5   5
Datil...........................  84  52  80  50 /  10  10  10   5
Reserve.........................  92  49  88  44 /   5   5   5   0
Glenwood........................  95  49  91  48 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  82  41  81  40 /   0   0  10  10
Los Alamos......................  84  59  82  58 /   0   0   5  10
Pecos...........................  86  50  84  51 /   0   0  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  82  49  81  50 /   0   0   0  10
Red River.......................  73  43  71  44 /   0   0   5  10
Angel Fire......................  79  36  77  44 /   0   0  20  10
Taos............................  86  45  85  45 /   0   0   5  10
Mora............................  85  50  82  51 /   0   0  20   5
Espanola........................  92  53  90  54 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  86  55  84  55 /   0   0  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  89  53  87  52 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  61  90  60 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  56  91  56 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  52  94  56 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  58  92  58 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  94  49  93  54 /   0   0   0  20
Bernalillo......................  94  56  93  58 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  94  48  93  53 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  95  57  93  58 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  94  48  93  54 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  90  60  88  60 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  94  57  92  58 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  96  60  94  60 /   5   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  58  85  57 /   0   0   5  10
Tijeras.........................  87  56  86  55 /   0   0   5  10
Edgewood........................  89  54  87  55 /   0   0  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  48  88  50 /   0   0  10  10
Clines Corners..................  85  52  83  53 /   0   0  10   5
Mountainair.....................  88  52  87  53 /   5   0   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  87  53  86  54 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  90  59  89  61 /   5   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  83  59  82  60 /   5   0  10   0
Capulin.........................  83  42  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  88  44  85  49 /   0   0  10   5
Springer........................  89  46  86  50 /   0   0  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  87  51  84  55 /   0   0  10   0
Clayton.........................  91  51  86  60 /   0   0   5   0
Roy.............................  88  50  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  96  54  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  93  52  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  98  54  96  63 /   0   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  97  55  97  60 /   0   5   5   0
Portales........................  98  55  98  60 /   0   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  96  54  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  98  59  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  92  57  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  92  56  91  58 /  10   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16