798
FXUS65 KABQ 151750 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Widespread storms each day this week will focus over western New
  Mexico, with lesser coverage across the east. Small hail, gusty
  outflow winds, and localized flash flooding may occur with
  stronger storms during the afternoon and evening hours.

- There is a low risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn
  scars through Thursday, then at least a moderate risk from
  Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a quite active synoptic
pattern over the western CONUS. The main feature is the commanding
H5 ridge over the central plains as well as the secondary high that
continues to develop over the northern Rockies in Wyoming and
Montana. There has been a steady stream of moisture clockwise around
these circulations, with the deepest moisture being advected
meridionally from northern Mexico into Utah and Idaho. Meanwhile, an
easterly wave over west Texas has begun to produce robust convection
over the Hill Country of Texas tonight. This convection will
gradually make its way northwestward, but the subsidence out ahead
of it will help to limit convective activity across the eastern
third of New Mexico today. Storms today will once again focus along
and west of the central mountain chain, although coverage will be
higher compared to Tuesday since the shortwave skirting northern NM
will be stronger and moisture content will be slightly higher as
well. Localized pockets of 1"+ are likely today, with the best
chance along the west slopes of mtn ranges where storms will tend to
regenerate. These storms will cluster together in west-central NM
during the evening hours as rainfall intensity trends lower. While
an instance or two of flash flooding is to be expected, widespread
impacts are unlikely and much of this rainfall will be welcomed
across central and western NM.

The center of the easterly wave will work its way into far west
Texas on Thursday. Dry air will rotate into the circulation from the
northeast, which will translate to a downtick in coverage in central
NM. Western NM will be very similar to the previous days with
widespread storms developing over the high terrain, moving into the
lower elevations from the mid-afternoon onwards. An instance of
flash flooding or two remains on the table given the increasingly
efficient rainfall rates, but the soil will take a while to saturate
and become vulnerable to flash flooding. Soil moisture percentile
rankings show that much of western and northern NM is below the 10th
percentile for mid-July, with the northwest corner of the state
below the 1st percentile.

The extensive cloud coverage and falling 500 mb heights will combine
to make Thursday the coolest day of the week in many areas, with
highs struggling to reach 90F, even in lower elevation locations
like Albuquerque, Farmington, and Roswell.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The easterly wave will stall over far west Texas on Friday,
eventually filling and dissipating. At the same time, the secondary
ridge currently over Wyoming will shift southward over the Four
Corners and strengthen. Moisture will continue coming up from the
south, with the deepest sub-tropical moisture over western NM.
Despite the southerly shift in the high, storm motions should trend
even faster late week into the weekend over the southern half of New
Mexico, with slower and erratic motions near the Colorado border.
With repeated rounds of storms, soils will slowly saturate,
including over recent burn scars where the flash flood risk will be
greatest.

Ensemble guidance shows that the center of the H5 high will migrate
southeast towards the TX Panhandle early next week, then potentially
setting up right over central NM mid to late week. This will
continue to favor at least scattered storms each day next week, with
the highest rain chances in western NM where moisture will be
greatest (PWATs 120-150% of normal).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

SHRA/TS developing near the high terrain late this morning will
move south/southwest at 10-20KT into nearby highlands and valleys
thru late this afternoon. Convective outflows may produce wind
gusts up to 40KT from the stronger cells. An AWW (Aiport Weather
Warning) will be issued for the ABQ Sunport as canyon winds crank
up later today. Localized MVFR vsbys are also possible with brief
heavy rainfall. Favored areas thru sunset will be along and west
of the central mt chain. Storms will then dissipate to showers
thru late this evening. There is a 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs at
KROW by sunrise Friday as an area of low stratus advects northwest
from west TX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days.
An active monsoon pattern will bring scattered to widespread showers
to much of central and northern NM each of the next several days,
with the greatest coverage over western NM and the lowest coverage
in the eastern plains. Storms will generally occur during the
afternoon and evening hours, but showers with a few embedded storms
may linger into the overnight hours across western NM. Storms today
through Friday will generally move from northeast to southwest at 5
to 15 mph, becoming east to west late week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  63  90  62 /  20  50  20  50
Dulce...........................  89  49  86  48 /  70  70  60  50
Cuba............................  85  56  82  55 /  50  30  30  50
Gallup..........................  89  54  84  52 /  60  60  40  60
El Morro........................  84  55  79  54 /  60  80  40  50
Grants..........................  88  56  83  55 /  50  60  40  50
Quemado.........................  84  57  79  55 /  60  80  60  40
Magdalena.......................  84  62  81  61 /  30  50  40  20
Datil...........................  81  58  76  57 /  50  70  60  30
Reserve.........................  87  56  83  52 /  60  60  60  30
Glenwood........................  90  58  87  54 /  60  40  60  30
Chama...........................  81  48  78  47 /  70  60  70  50
Los Alamos......................  82  62  81  61 /  60  50  30  40
Pecos...........................  80  54  81  54 /  80  40  50  20
Cerro/Questa....................  81  55  79  54 /  60  60  70  40
Red River.......................  78  43  75  42 /  80  60  70  40
Angel Fire......................  75  41  75  40 /  80  50  70  40
Taos............................  83  52  81  50 /  60  40  50  30
Mora............................  76  51  77  51 /  90  40  60  30
Espanola........................  90  60  88  60 /  50  40  30  30
Santa Fe........................  82  60  82  60 /  60  40  40  20
Santa Fe Airport................  86  58  85  58 /  40  40  30  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  66  88  66 /  40  40  40  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  63  89  63 /  30  40  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  63  91  63 /  30  30  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  66  90  66 /  30  40  20  30
Belen...........................  93  62  91  62 /  20  30  20  20
Bernalillo......................  93  65  91  64 /  40  40  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  92  60  90  60 /  30  30  30  20
Corrales........................  93  65  91  65 /  40  40  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  92  62  90  62 /  20  30  20  20
Placitas........................  88  65  87  65 /  50  40  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  92  65  90  65 /  40  40  20  30
Socorro.........................  95  68  92  67 /  10  30   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  59  82  59 /  50  40  50  30
Tijeras.........................  87  57  86  57 /  50  40  40  30
Edgewood........................  86  54  86  54 /  50  30  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  52  86  52 /  50  20  30  10
Clines Corners..................  80  54  81  54 /  50  30  20  10
Mountainair.....................  85  56  85  56 /  50  20  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  83  57  82  57 /  40  20  30  10
Carrizozo.......................  86  62  85  61 /  20  20  30  10
Ruidoso.........................  78  55  78  54 /  20  10  40  10
Capulin.........................  78  53  80  53 /  20   5  10  10
Raton...........................  83  54  84  53 /  20  10   5  10
Springer........................  83  56  85  55 /  30   5   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  79  54  80  54 /  60  30  20  10
Clayton.........................  86  61  87  60 /   5   5   0   5
Roy.............................  81  59  83  58 /  10   5   0  10
Conchas.........................  90  63  91  63 /   5   5   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  85  61  85  61 /  20   5   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  90  63  91  63 /   5   5   0   5
Clovis..........................  88  62  87  62 /   5   5   0  10
Portales........................  89  62  88  62 /   5   5   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  89  63  89  63 /   5  10   0  10
Roswell.........................  90  66  89  65 /   5  10   5  20
Picacho.........................  85  60  85  59 /   5  10   5  10
Elk.............................  83  55  83  55 /   5  10  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42