097
FXUS65 KABQ 221944
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
144 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along
  and west of the central mountain chain today, as well as the
  Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain
  westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain,
  localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- Moderate to major heat risk will afflict lower elevations of
  central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the
  week into the weekend where highs climb back into the 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The closed Low that created significant flooding over western NM
yesterday has moved northward into SE Utah this afternoon. There is
still plentiful moisture across the western half of the state, with
PWATs above the 95th percentile. Drier air has worked its way into
eastern and central NM from the southeast, which has helped to limit
convection along the east slopes of the central mountain chain thus
far today. Recent hi-res guidance has backed off rainfall amounts
over the South Fork and Salt burn scars, but 90th percentile amounts
are still well-above 1" and remain cause for concern. Rainfall rates
will be higher across the western half of the state, where locally
2"/hour rates could occur. However, the smaller updrafts compared to
yesterday will generally keep rainfall durations under 1 hour this
afternoon. This heavy sub-hourly rainfall is still enough to create
issues, particularly in the San Juan River Valley where less than 1"
in a very short period can be enough to produce flash flooding.
Storms will be moving from south to north at 10 to 20 mph and could
get tied to S/N oriented terrain as well. Rainfall rates will trend
lower with the loss of daytime heating this evening, with shower and
embedded storms focusing over the northwest third of the state
overnight.

The upper high currently centered over north Texas will shift
westward Thursday, centering itself over southeast NM by the
afternoon. The disturbance over Utah today will then be pulled
eastward, trekking across southern Colorado through the day. As a
result, storm coverage will focus over northern NM, with lesser rain
chances south of I-40. Hi-res models are still showing scattered
storms developing over the Cont. Divide, with these showers moving
into the RGV during the late afternoon and evening hours. The flash
flood risk for Thursday will be notably lower, with drier air
working its way underneath the center of the ridge. 90th percentile
amounts from the RRFS and HREF still show localized pockets of 1-2"
so an isolated case or two of flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

With the ridge shifting overhead tomorrow and 500 mb heights rising,
temperatures will tick up a couple of degrees. This will be the
first of a multi-day stretch of 100 degree heat for the southeast
plains and the Roswell area could even flirt with the 105F degree
mark. The NBM was notably cooler on temps compared to other
guidance, so maxTs were nudged a bit higher.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The upper high will continue its trek westward on Friday, centering
itself somewhere over western NM. This will allow storm outflows from
more robust convection over SE Colorado Thursday night to push
moisture south and westward into eastern and central NM Friday.
Storms will therefore focus over these areas on Saturday when rain
chances in the eastern plains will be higher than they have been for
days. The storms and associated clouds should keep temperatures down
a few degrees, but it will still be a hot day with high temps in the
upper 90s and low 100s.

The upper high will likely change location this weekend into early
next week, but its exact location is slightly different in the 3
ensemble means. Regardless of the exact location of the high, slow
and erratic storm motions are favored, which will elevate the threat
of flash flooding. PWATs will generally be 100-130% of normal, which
is notable for late July because it is near the climatological peak
in atmospheric moisture content. Model guidance continues to diverge
early next week, with regard to the location of the high, with the
location ranging from northeast Arizona to the TX Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Scattered storms today will favor the western half of New Mexico,
moving from south to north at 5 to 15 knots. Lightning and gusty
outflow winds up to 35 knots will be the main aviation concerns
between 18Z and 02Z. Showers with embedded storms will linger
across the northwest corner of the state through the night.

Other than very brief MVFR conditions with stronger storms, VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next seven
days. Scattered showers and storms will favor the western half of
the state today, with activity focusing over northern New Mexico on
Thursday. Rain chances trend higher again Friday into the weekend as
high pressure re-centers itself over central NM. This will result
in slow-moving showers and storms that will favor the mountains.
Temperatures late week into the weekend will be hot with highs
generally 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. Scattered showers
and storms will favor the western half of the state early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  88  65  93 /  50   5   5   0
Dulce...........................  55  85  54  91 /  80  30  20  30
Cuba............................  59  85  60  88 /  50  20  20  10
Gallup..........................  57  86  60  89 /  50  10  10  10
El Morro........................  57  83  59  85 /  50  20  10  40
Grants..........................  59  88  61  89 /  50  20  20  30
Quemado.........................  58  85  60  86 /  40  20  20  10
Magdalena.......................  64  87  66  89 /  10  20  20  40
Datil...........................  58  83  60  85 /  20  20  20  30
Reserve.........................  57  91  59  94 /  20  10  20  30
Glenwood........................  59  95  63  98 /  20   5  10   5
Chama...........................  53  79  53  84 /  70  40  20  60
Los Alamos......................  64  86  65  87 /  30  30  20  40
Pecos...........................  59  88  60  89 /  20  10  10  40
Cerro/Questa....................  57  84  57  86 /  20  30  30  60
Red River.......................  49  75  49  77 /  20  30  40  80
Angel Fire......................  47  81  46  81 /  20  10  20  90
Taos............................  58  87  57  88 /  20  20  20  50
Mora............................  56  87  57  86 /  10  10  10  80
Espanola........................  67  93  66  95 /  30  30  20  10
Santa Fe........................  63  87  63  89 /  20  10  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  62  90  63  92 /  20  20  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  94  69  96 /  10  20  30   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  95  70  96 /  10  20  30   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  97  69  99 /  10  20  30   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  95  70  97 /  20  20  30   0
Belen...........................  67  97  69  99 /  10  10  20   0
Bernalillo......................  67  96  69  98 /  20  20  30   0
Bosque Farms....................  64  96  66  98 /  10  10  30   0
Corrales........................  67  96  69  98 /  20  20  30   0
Los Lunas.......................  65  96  67  98 /  10  10  30   0
Placitas........................  66  92  67  94 /  10  20  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  68  95  69  97 /  20  20  30   0
Socorro.........................  71 100  73 101 /   5  10  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  88  64  90 /  10  20  20   5
Tijeras.........................  63  89  64  91 /  10  20  20   5
Edgewood........................  60  91  61  93 /  10  10  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  93  57  94 /   5  10  10  20
Clines Corners..................  59  88  60  89 /  10   5  10  30
Mountainair.....................  61  92  62  93 /   5  10  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  61  90  62  91 /   5   5   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  67  93  69  95 /   5   5   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  61  86  63  89 /  20  20   0  20
Capulin.........................  59  91  57  87 /   5  20  40  70
Raton...........................  57  94  56  91 /   5  20  20  80
Springer........................  60  96  59  93 /   5  10  20  70
Las Vegas.......................  59  90  59  89 /   5   5  10  60
Clayton.........................  67 100  66  96 /   0   5  60  30
Roy.............................  64  94  63  92 /   0   0  30  50
Conchas.........................  69 103  69 101 /   0   0  10  30
Santa Rosa......................  67  98  67  97 /   0   0  10  40
Tucumcari.......................  71 103  72 102 /   0   0   5  20
Clovis..........................  69 102  71 102 /   0   0   0  20
Portales........................  71 103  73 103 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  70 102  71 102 /   0   0   0  20
Roswell.........................  72 104  74 105 /   0   0   0  10
Picacho.........................  66  98  68  99 /   5   5   0  10
Elk.............................  62  94  65  96 /   5   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201>208.

Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16