Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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582 FXUS65 KABQ 172349 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 449 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 440 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 - A moist Pacific storm system will bring cooler and unsettled weather from late Tuesday night through Thursday night, with high chances for mountain snow and valley rain. - There is a moderate to high chance (60-80%) that winter weather advisories will be required for accumulating snow in the mountains from Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 135 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 A 547dm H5 low near San Francisco today will move slowly southeast into SoCal thru Tuesday night. A 110kt upper level speed max and associated rich tap of subtropical moisture ahead of this low will spread thicker high clouds and increasing PWATs into the southwest CONUS. The latest NAEFS shows PWATs trending 2 to 3 stdev above climo for late November at KABQ (0.60-0.65"). The overall impact across NM in the meantime will be periods of mostly cloudy skies, higher humidity, slight south to southwest breezes, and min temps still 10 to 15F above normal. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 135 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 Moisture advection will continue Wednesday but with improving ascent and diffluence over NM as the H5 low begins drifting eastward toward west-central AZ. Shower chances will increase northward over NM with a couple storms possible. There are slight differences in the track of the H5 low as it moves east from AZ and fills to near 560dm thru Wednesday night and Thursday. Despite these differences, confidence is moderate to high for widespread showers and periods of rain with a couple storms during this period. However, confidence is moderate to low on the placement of the heavier QPF signatures given some important details in the mesoscale pattern. There is potential for some areas to pick up between 0.5 and 1.0" over a 12 hour period. This area is currently favored between the RGV, central mt chain, and highlands of eastern NM. This system is quite warm for late November. Snow levels will remain above 9500` Wednesday night before falling to near 8000` Thursday then near 6500` Thursday night. Snow levels will also depend on the track of this system since 700mb temps beneath the low are progged to average -2C to -4C. The latest NBM 50th percentile 48-hr snowfall amounts are roughly 2-5" above 7500` with 90th percentile values in the 5-10" range across the northern mts. This would warrant Winter Weather Advisories with probability of exceeding warning criteria at only 5-10%. A shortwave upper level ridge is progged to move across NM Friday and Friday night followed by increasing southwest flow ahead of the next system approaching from the west. Model agreement is still struggling with an even wider variety of solutions present now from the 12Z suite. At this time, there is still potential for yet another round of unsettled weather to move across the region Sunday and/or Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 440 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 Batches of lower clouds (3500-5000ft above ground level) are still lingering across portions of western to northwestern New Mexico early this evening, but currently cloud bases are high enough to keep conditions in the VFR category. There is a low probability (10-30% chance) that scattered areas in western New Mexico will observe a slight lowering of these ceilings just beneath MVFR status (ceilings less than 3000 ft) through the early morning Tuesday, but confidence was not high enough to include this in the TAFs (especially at KGUP). Otherwise, high, fair weather cirrus clouds will thicken overnight, gradually lowering with altostratus (bases around 15,000ft) into the daytime Tuesday. Light to moderate breezes (generally 5-15 kt) will prevail through Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 There are no critical fire weather conditions forecast for at least the next seven days. The next system will move in from the west Wednesday with increasing coverage of showers with wetting rain. The core of this system will slide thru Wednesday night and Thursday with more widespread rain and mountain snow. Snow levels will stay above 9000` Wednesday/Wednesday night then fall to near 8000` Thursday then near 6500` Thursday night. Another break is expected Friday and Saturday then another storm system may slide in from the west Sunday and Monday. Ventilation will deteriorate to poor in many areas Thursday thru the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 32 58 35 59 / 0 5 10 10 Dulce........................... 19 55 25 56 / 0 5 20 20 Cuba............................ 27 55 31 55 / 0 0 5 20 Gallup.......................... 26 57 27 55 / 0 5 10 20 El Morro........................ 30 55 32 54 / 0 5 10 20 Grants.......................... 27 59 30 57 / 0 0 5 20 Quemado......................... 31 56 33 55 / 0 0 10 30 Magdalena....................... 36 58 41 55 / 0 0 5 30 Datil........................... 32 55 35 53 / 0 0 10 30 Reserve......................... 30 60 32 57 / 0 5 30 40 Glenwood........................ 35 65 36 61 / 0 10 30 50 Chama........................... 19 50 25 50 / 0 0 20 20 Los Alamos...................... 33 53 38 52 / 0 0 10 20 Pecos........................... 32 56 36 55 / 0 0 5 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 27 53 33 52 / 0 0 5 10 Red River....................... 22 49 27 50 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 17 52 24 52 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 22 56 29 56 / 0 0 5 10 Mora............................ 30 57 32 55 / 0 0 5 10 Espanola........................ 27 60 32 60 / 0 0 5 20 Santa Fe........................ 35 55 39 55 / 0 0 5 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 30 57 37 57 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 41 60 46 60 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 35 61 43 62 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 34 63 41 64 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 37 60 42 61 / 0 0 5 10 Belen........................... 32 63 39 63 / 0 0 5 20 Bernalillo...................... 35 62 41 63 / 0 0 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 31 62 38 63 / 0 0 5 20 Corrales........................ 35 63 41 63 / 0 0 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 32 62 40 63 / 0 0 5 20 Placitas........................ 37 58 43 58 / 0 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 36 61 41 62 / 0 0 5 10 Socorro......................... 37 66 43 65 / 0 0 5 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 34 55 39 55 / 0 0 5 20 Tijeras......................... 31 58 41 58 / 0 0 5 20 Edgewood........................ 29 59 37 59 / 0 0 5 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 25 60 34 59 / 0 0 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 31 56 37 55 / 0 0 5 10 Mountainair..................... 32 58 39 57 / 0 0 5 20 Gran Quivira.................... 33 58 39 57 / 0 0 10 30 Carrizozo....................... 39 63 44 60 / 0 0 10 30 Ruidoso......................... 40 58 42 55 / 0 0 20 30 Capulin......................... 28 55 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 27 59 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 27 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 32 59 37 57 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 37 62 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 33 60 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 37 68 41 68 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 40 65 43 63 / 0 0 0 10 Tucumcari....................... 39 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 42 72 47 71 / 0 0 5 10 Portales........................ 41 73 46 72 / 0 0 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 38 70 43 67 / 0 0 5 10 Roswell......................... 42 74 48 73 / 0 0 5 5 Picacho......................... 41 70 45 68 / 0 0 10 10 Elk............................. 37 68 41 65 / 0 0 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...52