Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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436 FXUS65 KABQ 030725 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 125 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact the region today and tonight. Storms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall with flash flooding possible within central and eastern NM, particularly over area burn scars. - Drier air sweeps on the Fourth of July and Saturday, limiting the development of showers and thunderstorms before rain chances rise again Sunday through the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 An active day is in store as above normal moisture over NM interacts with an approaching upper level shortwave and associated 50kt speed max aloft. Confidence is high for at least numerous showers and storms with heavy rainfall, strong outflow winds, hail, frequent lightning, and potential flash flooding over parts of central and eastern NM. Burn scar areas will be at highest risk for flooding. SBCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg with effective bulk shear values between 30 and 40kt will favor a few strong cells. A south-north theta-e ridge axis will be elongated and stretched over central NM this afternoon then shoved eastward this evening as much drier southwest flow approaches with the upper level trough axis. Storm motion will initially be slow toward the north then accelerate as the day progresses. The Flash Flood Watch may be expanded to a larger area later this morning after additional model guidance and ensemble trends are reviewed. Storms will likely linger thru midnight before clearing slides over the area from west to east. Friday will be much drier and warmer with highs trending 5 to 10F warmer than recent days (very close to normal for early July). Storm chances will be near zero for much of the region except the far southwest high terrain and northern Sangre de Cristos where a few meager storms may manage to pop up by late afternoon. Southwest winds will also be a tad breezy for northern and western NM with gusts up to 25 mph possible in the late afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The upper level trough responsible for dragging much drier air across the region will exit the Front Range Friday night while a 593dm H5 high builds northward from Mexico. Northwest flow aloft along the Front Range Saturday will interact with increasingly moist, low level southeast flow approaching from the southern plains. The NBM has increasing chances for storms developing along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts Saturday afternoon (20-30% chance). PWATs near 1" with SBCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear values of 25-35kt will favor a few strong cells as activity moves southeast across northeast NM. The 00Z GFS is most bullish with forcing a strong convective outflow southwest across eastern NM and into the RGV Saturday night and Sunday. This wind shift is also reflected in the latest NBM auto- populated forecast database. The H5 ridge builds to near 594dm over central NM Sunday while low level moisture increases westward to the central mt chain. More typical terrain-dominated convection is expected along the central mt chain Sunday afternoon before activity propagates into the more unstable southeasterly flow over eastern NM. NAM/GFS SBCAPE values are above 1000 J/kg however shear values are much weaker beneath the strengthening ridge. The risk for burn scar flash flooding will continue for HPCC and the Ruidoso area. Only subtle changes are expected to the pattern Monday thru Wednesday as the upper level high meanders over central & western NM with moist south/southeast low level flow across the region. The threat for burn scar flash flooding will continue while many other areas also have the potential for locally heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Widespread impacts will continue the next 24 hrs with increasing coverage of SHRA/TS. MVFR to lcl IFR low cigs will also impact much of eastern NM thru sunrise with light showers and areas of rain. Storms impacting areas around the RGV early this morning will give way to lighter showers with mid level cigs thru sunrise. A much larger crop of SHRA/TS is expected to develop over the higher terrain by noon then move slowly north/northeast into nearby valleys, highlands, and eastern NM thru the evening. Any direct hits will be capable of producing heavy rainfall with strong outflow winds and brief IFR vsbys. The peak period for storms will be from 2pm to 8pm before gradually tapering off all areas by late evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1218 AM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Widespread showers and storms today will be capable of producing small footprints of very heavy rainfall. The risk of flash flooding will be high on area burn scars with rainfall rates greater than 1.5"/hr possible. Storm motion will be slow to the north/northeast. A much drier and warmer airmass will arrive Friday and Saturday as an upper level trough passes north of the area. Storm coverage will be essentially shut off Friday with min humidity falling to between 15 and 25%. A backdoor cold front will enter northeast NM Saturday and bring a potential increase in storms to the Sangre de Cristo Mts Saturday afternoon. Storm coverage is likely to increase Sunday as low level moisture increases over the region and the upper level high centers over NM. Slow-moving storms with locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day next week along with much warmer temperatures. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 86 59 90 57 / 40 30 0 0 Dulce........................... 83 45 85 44 / 70 50 5 0 Cuba............................ 80 53 84 54 / 80 50 0 0 Gallup.......................... 81 48 85 49 / 80 30 0 0 El Morro........................ 78 52 82 52 / 80 40 0 0 Grants.......................... 81 51 87 52 / 80 30 0 0 Quemado......................... 79 54 83 54 / 90 40 10 5 Magdalena....................... 80 60 86 62 / 80 30 5 0 Datil........................... 77 55 82 57 / 80 30 5 0 Reserve......................... 84 50 90 51 / 90 40 10 0 Glenwood........................ 88 55 92 57 / 90 40 20 5 Chama........................... 77 44 79 46 / 80 50 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 78 57 83 60 / 80 60 5 0 Pecos........................... 78 55 83 59 / 80 60 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 52 82 54 / 70 40 10 0 Red River....................... 71 44 74 45 / 80 40 20 0 Angel Fire...................... 73 42 77 39 / 80 40 10 0 Taos............................ 82 51 85 51 / 70 40 5 0 Mora............................ 76 50 81 52 / 90 50 10 0 Espanola........................ 87 58 91 57 / 70 50 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 81 58 85 62 / 80 60 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 84 57 88 59 / 80 60 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 87 65 91 67 / 70 60 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 88 63 92 64 / 60 50 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 63 95 63 / 60 50 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 65 93 65 / 60 50 0 0 Belen........................... 90 62 95 62 / 60 40 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 90 63 94 63 / 70 50 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 90 61 95 61 / 60 40 0 0 Corrales........................ 91 64 95 64 / 70 50 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 89 62 95 62 / 60 40 0 0 Placitas........................ 85 63 90 64 / 70 50 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 89 64 93 64 / 70 50 0 0 Socorro......................... 90 66 96 67 / 70 40 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 57 85 59 / 70 50 0 0 Tijeras......................... 83 59 87 60 / 70 50 0 0 Edgewood........................ 81 55 86 54 / 70 50 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 53 87 52 / 70 50 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 76 55 82 57 / 80 50 0 0 Mountainair..................... 80 56 85 58 / 80 50 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 79 56 85 58 / 80 50 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 81 62 89 64 / 80 40 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 57 81 59 / 90 40 20 0 Capulin......................... 78 54 82 55 / 50 40 20 10 Raton........................... 82 53 87 54 / 60 30 10 5 Springer........................ 83 55 89 56 / 60 40 10 0 Las Vegas....................... 78 54 85 55 / 80 50 5 0 Clayton......................... 82 62 90 62 / 30 40 10 10 Roy............................. 79 58 87 59 / 50 50 5 0 Conchas......................... 86 64 95 63 / 50 60 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 81 61 91 62 / 60 50 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 83 64 92 63 / 40 50 0 0 Clovis.......................... 81 65 92 65 / 50 50 5 0 Portales........................ 82 65 95 65 / 60 50 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 84 64 95 64 / 50 50 0 0 Roswell......................... 85 68 96 69 / 60 30 0 0 Picacho......................... 79 61 90 64 / 80 30 5 0 Elk............................. 78 59 87 62 / 80 30 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for NMZ214-215-226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42