Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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742 FXUS65 KABQ 221732 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1132 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025 - Isolated storms may develop in far eastern New Mexico each afternoon Tuesday through Saturday. A few storms may produce large hail and/or damaging wind gusts. - Southwest winds trend stronger late week into the weekend, increasing the risk of rapid fire spread in western and central New Mexico. - Temperatures rise well-above seasonal normals today and remain there through the end of the week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 318 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Today will mark the first of a several day stretch with the potential for severe storms in far eastern New Mexico. However, most of the state will continue to remain dry with well-above average temperatures. Storm coverage may expand westward late week, but showers and storms will most likely remain east of the central mountain chain. Increasing south to southwest winds and low humidity will increase fire danger in western and central New Mexico Friday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 318 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025 The storm track will remain well to the north of NM today and Wednesday enabling high temperatures to climb around 4 to 10 degrees above 1991-2020 averages both days. This morning, Gulf moisture will advect into the far eastern plains. The dryline will then spark isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the plains of Curry and Roosevelt Counties as it steps eastward into TX in the afternoon. Some models continue to indicate gusty virga showers west of the dryline across the southeast plains all the way to the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon and early evening, potentially impacting Roswell with brief, localized, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph with periods of significant visibility reduction in blowing dust. In the mid- to-late evening, Gulf moisture will quickly spread farther northwestward into NM`s eastern plains aided by outflow from storms in TX. A few strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon mainly in Curry and Roosevelt Counties, where mid- and low-level lapse rates of 9-10 C/KM, and 0-6 KM bulk shear near 30 KT are expected. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. Forecast CAPE in Curry and Roosevelt Counties isn`t all that impressive this afternoon and evening, but it looks much more impressive just over the border in TX. So, any severe storms that do get going on the NM side of the border will probably form fairly close to the border then exit into TX. Tonight, the increasing Gulf moisture on the eastern plains looks to be accompanied by low clouds potentially as far north as Conchas Lake and as far west as the Pecos River Valley. Wednesday afternoon, an upper level trough deepening over the western US will strengthen dry southwest flow over the forecast area, mixing the low level moisture eastward. In the process, there is a 15-20% chance that isolated dryline thunderstorms will develop in counties along NM`s eastern border, and potentially as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near the CO border. A few of the cells along the TX border may again turn severe Wednesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 318 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Models have trended deeper with a trough that is expected to develop over The Great Basin mid-week. The result is stronger southwest flow, which will attempt to keep the dryline from pushing westward into New Mexico each night/morning. For this reason, PoPs have trended down with this forecast package as most models are initiating afternoon storms off to the east in the TX Panhandle as opposed to eastern NM. There is still time for this to change and storm-scale boundaries may still play a role in pushing the dryline further west than currently modeled. Storm chances still look like they will be maximized on Saturday thanks to the addition of a backdoor front, but it appears much less likely that gusty showers/storms will make it as far west as the central mountain chain. This also decreases the likelihood of a gusty east wind pushing through the gaps of the central mountain chain Saturday morning. Breezy south to southwest winds will trend stronger late week, intensifying through the weekend as the aformentioned trough digs southeastward. This will allow well-above average temperatures to persist through the end of the week, until a Pacific front associated with the aformentioned trough crosses the state from west to east sometime Sunday or Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025 VFR prevails with light prevailing afternoon breezes out of the south and southwest. The exception will be isolated MVFR/IFR conditions from afternoon thunderstorms developing along a sharpening dryline near KCVN south-southwestward to southeastern NM. These storms will move east into TX from 00Z to 03Z kicking an outflow boundary back into NM. Some of this low level moisture behind the gust front will try to produce low ceilings over parts of eastern NM, and have generic scattered 015-020 mentioned at KTCC and KROW to account for this. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 AM MDT Tue Apr 22 2025 Min humidities will mostly vary around 15-8 percent across the fire weather forecast area today through Thursday, except for some higher readings in the mountains near the CO border, and higher readings with a dryline near the TX border. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast with the dryline each afternoon and evening today through Thursday. Models are agreeing a little better now on the arrival of a moist backdoor front to the northeast plains with increased thunderstorm activity there Thursday afternoon. The front will then make a run for the central mountain chain Thursday night with increased coverage of showers and storms along and east of the central mountain chain Friday and Saturday. Models aren`t showing much convective activity west of the central mountain chain Friday and Saturday in the latest runs, and they aren`t producing much of a gap wind in the central valley either. However, there will be a low pressure system dropping southward along the west coast late in the week, and historically these storm systems draw the Gulf moisture westward more than models expect. So, we can`t rule out at least drier variety virga showers and storms potentially as far west as the continental divide late Friday and moreso Saturday. The upper low is forecast to pass north of NM Sunday and Monday strengthening dry southwest flow over NM with the potential for widespread critical fire weather conditions both days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 75 40 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 29 74 32 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 70 38 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 72 28 72 29 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 70 36 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 75 32 76 32 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 72 36 74 35 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 74 44 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 72 40 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 79 33 77 32 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 83 39 82 38 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 64 32 67 32 / 5 0 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 69 46 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 70 42 72 41 / 0 0 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 67 39 70 39 / 5 0 10 0 Red River....................... 57 34 60 34 / 10 0 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 63 29 66 30 / 5 0 10 10 Taos............................ 70 34 73 34 / 5 0 5 5 Mora............................ 70 36 72 37 / 5 0 10 10 Espanola........................ 77 39 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 71 45 74 44 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 74 42 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 77 50 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 46 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 81 44 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 79 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 81 40 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 80 45 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 80 40 82 42 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 80 46 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 80 42 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 75 48 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 79 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 85 47 86 46 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 44 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 73 44 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 74 38 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 75 32 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 71 39 73 40 / 0 0 5 0 Mountainair..................... 75 39 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 75 39 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 80 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 45 73 45 / 5 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 70 38 70 40 / 5 5 20 20 Raton........................... 74 37 75 38 / 5 0 10 10 Springer........................ 75 36 76 38 / 5 5 10 10 Las Vegas....................... 72 38 74 39 / 0 0 5 10 Clayton......................... 77 47 77 48 / 5 10 20 30 Roy............................. 75 42 74 42 / 5 10 10 20 Conchas......................... 82 49 82 48 / 5 10 10 20 Santa Rosa...................... 78 47 80 45 / 5 5 5 10 Tucumcari....................... 81 50 81 53 / 5 20 10 30 Clovis.......................... 81 53 81 55 / 20 30 20 40 Portales........................ 84 51 83 54 / 20 30 20 40 Fort Sumner..................... 83 50 83 50 / 5 20 10 20 Roswell......................... 86 54 89 55 / 10 10 10 10 Picacho......................... 83 44 85 47 / 10 5 5 10 Elk............................. 82 43 82 45 / 10 0 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...24 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.