798
FXUS65 KABQ 231755 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1055 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1042 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

- There is a high chance of high temperatures becoming about 15
  degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday. Record high
  temperatures will be challenged in western and northern New
  Mexico.

- Breezy northwest winds will create elevated fire weather
  conditions in the central highlands each afternoon Sunday
  through Tuesday.

- A cold front will push through New Mexico Wednesday and the
  colder air will support temperatures closer to normal through
  Thursday.

- A Pacific storm system is expected to push across New Mexico
  March 1-3 with an increase in moisture.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 116 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

There are growing chances of above normal temperatures today
through Tuesday with several areas reaching record high
temperatures Monday. A cold front will push through New Mexico
lowering temperatures a few degrees closer to normal on Wednesday
and Thursday. Temperature rebound some into the weekend with the
next potential storm system coming from the Pacific Ocean. There
is low confidence that the system will bring any significant
precipitation to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 116 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Another shortwave will slide southeastward through the state today,
slowing what would be even more significant warming. Nonetheless,
high temperatures will still trend upward around 5 to 7 degrees for
most areas, but the southeast plains will trend upward 10 to 20
degrees. All areas will be above late February normals this
afternoon. A weak northerly wind shift will be noted across eastern
NM, but elsewhere, northwesterly breezes will be the rule.

The aforementioned wind shift across eastern NM will wash out
quickly overnight as a lee side surface low develops across
southeast CO. Additionally, northwest H7 winds around 25 to 40kt
will bisect the state from NW to SE overnight. All-in-all this will
mean west to northwesterly breezes will persist overnight along and
just east of the Central Mountain Chain, keeping low temperatures
from plummeting. Strong inversions remain likely across western NM.

Very weak H5 ridging in store for Monday, but the H7 jetlet
bisecting the state will persist. Temperatures will warm another 5
to 12 degrees from today areawide, thus strong mixing will allow
more of this mid level momentum to mix to the surface. Breezy to
windy conditions are expected from Moriarty and Clines Corners
southward to Ruidoso and Roswell where gusts near 35 to 40 mph will
occur.  Several locations will near or break temperature records for
the date, including Gallup, Farmington, Santa Fe, Angel Fire and
Moriarty.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 116 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Tuesday through Wednesday the upper level pattern becomes more
amplified with a trough dropping south from the Inter-Mountain
west. Ridging builds over the Great Basin as the trough axis drops
south and stretches from the Great Lakes back to the southern
Rockies. Above normal temperatures drop back down closer to normal
Wednesday and Thursday as a result of a colder airmass moving
into there region in wake of a cold front and trough axis passage.
There is not much of a signal for any precipitation with the
front or trough axis so there will not be any mention in the
forecast. In the end outside of some dry breezy conditions and
elevated fire weather, there is not much in the way of impactful
weather conditions.

The day 7-10 time range gets more interesting with a potent
Pacific storm system moving across NM on March 1-3 this coming
weekend. Looking at a couple of the scenarios from cluster
analysis of the ensemble model guidance, there are some timing
issues with this system. ECMWF and Canadian ensembles are
decidedly faster than the GFS ensemble which is a solid 12 hours
slower. It gets even more complicated in the March 3-5 time frame
with another storm system on the heals with the ECMWF much faster
with the second system while the GFS ensembles are lagging a bit.
On Day 8 we see these trends in the cluster analysis with cluster
one more closely resembling the ECMWF and cluster two more of a
true blend of the ensembles. This solution is more consistent with
the grand ensemble of all 3 systems.

In the end this all means we need to be careful of timing issues
and that the models are not producing much in the way of
precipitation from this system. The 50th percentile does not show
any precip for NM while the mean shows very little. It is not
until you look at the 90th percentile that there is any meaningful
precip and its not much. We need the moisture but models are
really limited with precip production with this system as any
Pacific moisture most likely goes into moistening up the
atmosphere instead of being able to fall. The only other detail
that could help is instability. The system should have cold air
aloft increasing lapse rates so precip could be more convective.
The problem may be isolated lightning strikes which is not good
with the dry vegetation/fuels. From a pattern recognition
standpoint, if cluster 1 does play out which is closer to the
ECMWF ensemble then Monday March 3 could be a critical fire
weather day for much of eastern NM into TX with lee cyclogenesis
in SE CO. Same can be said for Tuesday March 4 if the GFS solution
plays out. The other message to convey is that confidence in
these scenarios are pretty low as each one really depends on
timing and overall pattern evolution. There is plenty of time for
other scenarios to play out and adjust the forecast accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1042 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. The greatest
forecast uncertainty in this set of TAFs is with the wind
direction, and how persistent the gusts will be, for the
remainder of today east of the central mountain chain; and, to a
lesser extend in the central valley. A dry disturbance clipping
northeast NM strengthened north and northwest surface winds more
than models forecast during the late morning, and it remains to be
seen how long this stronger flow will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Temperatures will continue to climb through Monday before plateauing
Tuesday. Light northwest breezes will continue across central and
western NM today, but will increase on Monday across the Central
Highlands were gusts near 35 or 40 mph are possible. These winds
combined with RH values near 15 percent will create elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions for a few hours Monday
afternoon. The spatial extent currently does not warrant a Fire
Weather Watch but this bears watching. A strong cold front will push
through the state on Wednesday. Temperatures will drop 5 to 10
degrees across western and central NM but up to 20 degrees across
the east. Breezy winds will be felt areawide. Temperatures will
begin to warm back up on Thursday, but moreso Friday. Though
ventilation rates will be good or better through Wednesday, poor
vent rates will return for some areas Thursday and Friday. All eyes
are then on an upper level low taking aim on NM next weekend. Some
precipitation is expected with this system, though generally looks
to be light. However, it does look to be unstable enough to allow
for a few lightning strikes. This could be problematic as models are
indicating strong winds for the Tuesday following. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  28  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  56  22  60  20 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  57  26  63  28 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  62  21  68  21 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  58  31  64  31 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  62  22  69  23 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  60  28  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  63  35  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  61  30  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  68  22  74  24 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  72  26  76  34 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  51  24  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  57  37  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  60  32  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  53  29  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  45  23  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  51  19  56  23 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  57  22  62  26 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  58  28  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  64  28  70  28 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  59  33  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  62  29  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  37  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  35  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  33  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  69  27  74  30 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  66  32  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  67  27  72  31 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  66  31  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  68  26  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  62  34  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  65  33  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  70  35  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  36  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  59  36  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  60  35  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  64  26  70  26 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  59  32  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  62  33  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  61  30  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  64  38  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  59  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  61  30  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  65  26  71  28 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  64  25  71  27 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  62  32  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  63  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  61  32  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  66  29  75  33 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  63  36  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  64  29  75  31 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  68  32  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  67  31  76  34 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  30  77  34 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  75  33  84  39 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  68  35  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  68  36  76  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...44