692
FXUS65 KABQ 130019
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
619 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 554 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Thunderstorm activity increases through late this week. Risk of
  flash flooding returns to portions of central and western New
  Mexico mid to late week, including the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Smoke from wildfires across the region continues to impact air
  quality across northern parts of New Mexico through mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

High pressure aloft has shifted east and will continue to sprawl
across the southeastern and Gulf Coast states through Thursday as
a trough of low pressure aloft remains over and offshore of CA.
This will keep eastern areas hot where higher heights and more
subsidence will be found while the western and eventually central
areas of NM observe increasing subtropical moisture moving in.
This will lead to an increase in diurnal thunderstorm activity
with more nocturnal showers lingering. Precipitation will focus
over western NM today and tonight, expanding into more northern
and a few central areas of the state on Thursday. The increased
moisture, clouds, and precipitation will act to moderate
temperatures, bringing daytime highs closer, if not slightly
below, normal in western and central areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The upper high remains over the lower MS valley into Friday with a
continued fetch of subtropical moisture feeding northward into NM.
PWATs look to range from around 0.85 to 1.3 inches with the
driest areas remaining in the northwestern to north central
portions of NM while the lower Pecos River valley holds higher
values. Storms will continue to initiate farther east into Friday,
including more cells over the Sacramentos which will pose
concerns for burn scars. Storms will have a harder time moving off
of the mountains and into the far eastern plains given the south-
to-north steering flow, but a few mesoscale cold pools may allow
for propagation Friday night. This trend will continue on into
Saturday with scattered to numerous cells initiating over the high
terrain during the afternoon and filling into adjacent valleys
and lowlands through the overnight. Both Friday and Saturday
appear to be the more active storm days with heavy rainfall
potential for high terrain areas and rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour. The slow struggling expansion of storms in
eastern zones will subdue the heat slightly, but readings will
still commonly reach the mid 90`s in the eastern plains both
Friday and Saturday.

Uncertainty starts to grow for next week with prognoses indicating that
the upper high will push back more centrally over NM Sunday and Monday.
This would suggest more subsidence along with a less optimal steering
flow for subtropical moisture, and ensembles indicate a reduction in
PWATs over much of AZ and western and northern NM. Blended guidance
from the NBM retains high POPs for Sunday and Monday, and this could be
an opportunity for fine-tuning and reductions as subsequent
shifts update the forecast. The upper high looks to move very
little into Wednesday and Thursday with lighter winds and slower
steering flow making it difficult for storms to move far off of
the high terrain. Therefore, climatologically favored mountain
ranges would fare best with opportunities for rainfall with
chances decreasing sharply downslope.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue this
evening over western areas, with isolated activity as far east as
the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Late tonight and
Thursday morning, isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to persist along and west of the
continental divide. On Thursday, there will be a lot of cloud
cover as excessive monsoon moisture streams northeastward across
the state. Nonetheless, a disturbance or two embedded in the flow
should be able to produce scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms from central parts of the eastern plains westward.
There will be periods of more numerous activity in the western and
northern mountains. Storm motion this evening will generally be
toward the north around 10-15 KT, and toward the northeast on
Thursday around 10-20 KT. A few of the stronger storms this
evening, and again on Thursday afternoon and evening, will be
capable of wet microbursts with erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast through the
next several days. Breezy conditions will be common in the northeastern
plains as the lee-side surface trough repeatedly develops each day
through the end of the week. Occasional afternoon gusts of 25 to 30 mph
will occur in these northeastern zones, but no widespread
critical threat is forecast. Outside of northeastern NM, wind
concerns will primarily be localized and brief outflows from
thunderstorms. Although a more active thunderstorm pattern will be
getting underway through the end of the week, there will be a
threat for new lightning ignitions as fuels remain vulnerable, and
this will especially be true over the finer fuels of the plains
where drier soils and vegetation will be coupled with more sparse
storm activity and smaller footprints of wetting rain. There is
some uncertainty, but storms are likely to reduce in coverage
early next week with high pressure and potentially drier air
settling back over NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  88  63  87 /  50  10  40  30
Dulce...........................  48  85  53  85 /  60  30  50  40
Cuba............................  55  83  57  84 /  40  30  50  30
Gallup..........................  53  81  55  82 /  60  40  30  40
El Morro........................  52  77  54  78 /  60  50  40  70
Grants..........................  55  82  57  83 /  60  50  40  70
Quemado.........................  55  77  56  78 /  40  70  40  70
Magdalena.......................  60  82  61  83 /  20  60  30  60
Datil...........................  54  77  55  78 /  30  60  30  60
Reserve.........................  54  83  55  84 /  60  70  40  60
Glenwood........................  57  88  59  90 /  70  50  20  40
Chama...........................  48  79  51  77 /  60  40  40  60
Los Alamos......................  60  83  61  84 /  30  50  40  50
Pecos...........................  57  85  56  85 /  20  20  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  56  83  55  81 /  20  40  30  50
Red River.......................  46  76  46  74 /  10  50  30  70
Angel Fire......................  40  79  41  78 /   5  50  20  70
Taos............................  53  85  56  83 /  20  30  20  40
Mora............................  54  83  54  82 /  10  40  20  70
Espanola........................  58  90  59  90 /  30  50  40  20
Santa Fe........................  61  85  60  85 /  20  20  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  58  88  59  88 /  20  20  30  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  90  66  90 /  20  20  30  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  91  67  91 /  20  20  30  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  93  62  93 /  20  20  30  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  91  67  92 /  20  20  30  10
Belen...........................  62  92  66  93 /  20  20  30  20
Bernalillo......................  65  93  65  92 /  20  20  30  10
Bosque Farms....................  59  92  62  92 /  20  20  30  10
Corrales........................  65  93  65  93 /  20  20  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  62  92  64  92 /  20  20  30  10
Placitas........................  63  88  64  89 /  20  20  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  66  92  67  91 /  20  20  30  10
Socorro.........................  66  93  67  94 /  20  40  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  86  59  85 /  20  20  30  10
Tijeras.........................  59  86  61  86 /  20  20  30  10
Edgewood........................  56  88  59  87 /  20  20  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  90  56  89 /  20  20  20  20
Clines Corners..................  57  85  58  85 /  20  20  20  20
Mountainair.....................  56  87  58  87 /  20  20  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  57  86  58  86 /  20  20  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  65  89  65  89 /  20  20  20  40
Ruidoso.........................  58  83  57  83 /  20  20  10  70
Capulin.........................  55  85  56  84 /   0  30  20  60
Raton...........................  56  89  56  88 /   5  30  20  70
Springer........................  57  91  57  90 /  10  30  20  50
Las Vegas.......................  57  87  57  86 /  10  20  20  30
Clayton.........................  66  95  64  93 /   0   5  20  20
Roy.............................  61  91  61  90 /   5  20  20  20
Conchas.........................  69  99  67  98 /   5  10  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  66  93  66  94 /  10  10  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  70 100  69  99 /   0   0  10  10
Clovis..........................  70  99  69  96 /   5   0  10  20
Portales........................  71  99  70  98 /   5   0  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  69  98  69  97 /   5  10  10  10
Roswell.........................  72  99  71  99 /  10   5   5  20
Picacho.........................  66  93  66  92 /  10  20  10  70
Elk.............................  63  91  61  88 /  10  10   5  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ202-205-206-208-
209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44