Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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326 FXUS65 KABQ 020647 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1247 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1244 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dry and warm weather prevails through Friday. Scattered showers and storms will develop across northwest and north-central New Mexico Friday night and Saturday. - Breezy south to southwest winds Friday increase more Saturday, creating hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles. - Wetter than normal weather is favored for central and northern New Mexico next week (moderate to high confidence). && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Today will be another blue sky day with warm temps and light winds around central and northern New Mexico. High temps will be a few ticks higher than Tuesday (2-5 degrees) thanks to an amplifying ridge over the southern plains. By Friday, a trough will begin deepening over The Great Basin. Increasing southwest winds will induce the development of a lee-side low (~1000mb) in eastern Colorado. Winds will overall be unimpactful, but could be just strong enough to blow around unsecured objects in typically windy areas. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The cyclonically curved jet streak will round the base of the aformentioned Great Basin trough as it moves into Utah Friday night and Saturday, forcing the trough to lift off to the northeast. Jet forcing and orographic lift will help a few showers develop across northwestern and north-central NM. Wetting rain will generally be confined to the high terrain, but there could be a sprinkles in northern valleys as well overnight. The trough will rapidly lift into the northern plains on Saturday. Showers and even a few storms may develop along a fast-moving Pacific front, but the front will rapidly weaken as it moves eastward as it becomes detached from the upper-level forcing. Saturday will be the windiest day in a while with gusts of 30 to 50 mph around the region. 700mb winds of 30-40kts will be above the 90th percentile for early October and winds of this magnitude (and potentially stronger) could intermittently be brought down to the sfc with showers along the aformentioned Pacific front. Sunday will be the nicer day this weekend with no precipitation, less wind, and slightly cooler temperatures. The trough exiting into the Plains may send a backdoor front into eastern NM on Monday, although it should struggle to progress any further than the central mountain chain given that it will be fighting increasing southwest flow. Moisture will gradually be brought in from the south early next week as another trough deepens over California. The aformentioned frontal boundary will focus precipitation in north-central and northeastern NM and another surge mid-week could further enhance precipitation rates. Ensemble guidance suggests PWATs will rise above the 90th percentile areawide Tuesday through Thursday when precipitation will be most widespread. Increasing instability could help to increase rainfall rates along a thin corridor of moisture, but a shield of mid-level clouds will attempt to counteract this and keep storms mostly at bay. At least slightly above average moisture is expected to hang around through the end of the workweek, keeping rain chances around. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions with light winds and mostly clear skies will continue to prevail through the TAF period around central and northern New Mexico. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Dry conditions with light winds prevail today, then south to southwest winds trend stronger Friday into Saturday. This will create elevated to even near-critical fire weather conditions in northeastern NM, but recent moisture will prevent fuels from being susceptible to any rapid fire spread. Showers and a few storms will focus over northwest and north-central NM on Saturday, with dry weather returning Sunday in the wake of a weak Pacific front. Rain chances trend higher again early to mid-next week as subtropical moisture streams back into New Mexico from the south. There is a moderate chance of widespread wetting rainfall mid to late next week, with the highest chance in the northern mountains. A light southerly breeze will prevail in most areas during this time period as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 82 53 83 55 / 0 0 0 30 Dulce........................... 79 39 78 44 / 0 0 0 40 Cuba............................ 77 48 77 50 / 0 0 5 10 Gallup.......................... 80 46 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 77 48 77 49 / 0 0 5 0 Grants.......................... 80 46 80 49 / 0 0 5 0 Quemado......................... 80 49 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 78 54 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 77 48 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 84 48 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 88 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 73 41 72 43 / 0 0 5 30 Los Alamos...................... 75 52 74 52 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 77 49 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 48 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 67 41 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 72 33 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 78 44 77 46 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 75 44 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 82 48 81 51 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 77 52 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 80 49 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 82 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 85 57 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 86 54 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 57 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 86 52 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 85 54 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 85 52 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 55 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 85 53 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 81 56 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 88 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 77 52 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 79 54 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 80 47 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 44 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 77 49 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 79 50 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 79 49 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 82 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 75 51 73 49 / 5 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 77 49 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 79 44 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 81 45 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 77 48 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 85 57 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 80 52 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 88 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 84 54 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 87 56 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 90 58 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 90 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 87 56 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 90 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 85 54 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 82 52 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16