236
FXUS65 KABQ 262340 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
440 PM MST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 430 PM MST Tue Nov 26 2024

 - Rain and mainly mountain snow showers mostly over far northern
   areas today through Wednesday night with a few to several
   inches of snow possible in the northern mountains.

 - Strong winds continue today through Wednesday with gusts up to
   70 mph along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
   and northeast highlands.

 - Colder, drier, with less wind on Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 PM MST Tue Nov 26 2024

Strong winds along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
heavy snow across the Tusas Mountains will continue throughout today
and into Wednesday. Widespread gusts of 50 miles per hour are
expected, with some gusts possibly reaching 70 miles per hour. High
winds may also extend down to the central highlands tonight and into
Wednesday morning. Significant snowfall in the Tusas and Sangre
de Cristo Mountains will mainly remain above most roads and towns.
Temperatures drop behind a backdoor cold front on Thanksgiving,
especially in eastern areas. A slow, gradual warming trend is
expected through the weekend and into next week, with light winds
and little to no precipitation throughout the state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 211 PM MST Tue Nov 26 2024

Pacific moisture and westerly winds throughout the column are on the
upswing through Wednesday when an upper level trough, currently
moving into NV from northern CA/OR, will race east across the
southern Rockies and NM. The combination of increasing PWATs and
strong orographic forcing will bring snow to the northern mountains
overnight through Wednesday. In fact, snow is currently flying in
the Tusas Mountains and the Cumbres Trestle Snotel at 10Kft just
north of the NM/CO border is already registering a few inches. We`re
still expecting warning amounts across the peaks of the Tusas and
Sangre De Cristo Mountains, but generally above 9000ft and with
little impact. The greatest storm total snow amounts are forecast
across the peaks of the Tusas near the CO border, where up to two
feet are possible. The bigger impact for the Sangre De Cristos
through Wednesday will be high winds with the potential for damaging
wind gusts, so we`ll stick with the High Wind Warning for those
zones and mention snow amounts in that product, which will be less
than advisory criteria for population centers such as Red River and
Angel Fire. A mountain wave is still forecast to develop overnight
to the lee of the Sangre De Cristos, which will force stronger winds
to the surface along the east slopes and extend out into portions
of the adjacent highlands. Those highlights all look on track and no
changes are planned at this time. The Wind Advisory for the Central
Highlands and Guadalupe County may need to be extend beyond 15Z
Wednesday, but will let the mid shift take another look before
making further changes. The upper level trough will push a cold front
through Wednesday, with brisk conditions behind it through Wednesday
evening. Notable cold air advection behind the front will make for
low temperatures Wednesday night that will be 15-25 degrees colder
than tonight`s well above normal temperatures. Lastly, the
development of freezing fog is possible from Las Vegas south through
Clines Corners to near Ruidoso late Wednesday night due to upslope
flow behind the backdoor segment of the cold front, with higher
humidity in the front layer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM MST Tue Nov 26 2024

Thanksgiving Day high temperatures will be below average for all
but the southwest areas of the CWA, thanks to a backdoor cold
front that pushes through early Thursday morning. Highs will
struggle to break 50F across the eastern plains, and will hover in
the low 40s across the northeast areas. Elsewhere central and
western areas will sit around the mid 40s to low 50s, except for
the northwest areas being in the low 40s. Northwest flow becomes
more prominent into the weekend as a longwave trough dips into
eastern CONUS, bringing drier air to the state. Temperatures will
remain consistent throughout the weekend with little change,
outside of a weak backdoor cold front late Saturday, dropping
highs in the eastern areas on Sunday. A pocket of stronger winds
across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains is possible late Friday into
Saturday as mountain wave activity increases, with GFS and NAM
700mb winds peaking around 45-50kts during this timeframe.

Outside of any wind threats, weather looks to remain calm throughout
the extended forecast, especially as the chances for a Rex Block
developing across the western coast of CONUS continues to increase
later this week and remain into next week. This will bring near to
above average temperatures to much of the state early next week as
weak zonal flow to slight upper level ridging settles over NM. The
CPC highlights NM in both their 6-10 and 8-14 day temperatures
outlooks as having higher chances of above average temperatures,
contributing the high model agreement on the upper level pattern to
their outlooks. Any exception to these temperatures would likely be
from backdoor cold fronts traversing across the eastern plains, due
to influence from shortwaves traveling down a troughing pattern
across the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 PM MST Tue Nov 26 2024

Strong westerly winds aloft causing widespread LLWS across
northern and central NM tonight well into Wednesday morning will
be the main concern tonight. KLVS in particular has strong
westerly winds persisting thru the TAF period, inhibiting the
inclusion of LLWS in the TAF. However, if winds calm below 20kts
there, strong to potentially dangerous LLWS will impact the
terminal thanks to 50-60kt winds just off the deck. Meanwhile, the
main core of the storm system currently over northern CA will
advance over UT by 12Z Wednesday, slowly spreading precipitation
downslope off the CO San Juans toward KFMN. Precipitation
associated with the surface cold front will reach KGUP Wednesday
morning sometime between 12Z to 18Z. Widespread MVFR and mountain
obscurations can be expected over western and northern NM with
more localized IFR impacts will be present. A cold front advancing
southward from CO will bring a northerly to northeasterly wind
shift through northeastern NM by Wednesday afternoon, including
KRTN-KLVS-KCAO-KTCC. Precipitation will be more limited east of
the Sangre de Cristo Mts, until after this cold front passes
through, with ceilings falling to MVFR along from KRTN to KCAO
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM MST Tue Nov 26 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. Pacific moisture and strong westerlies will
result in accumulating snow in the northern mountains and very windy
conditions across portions of northern NM through Wednesday. Vent
rates will be good to excellent Wednesday ahead of a cold front,
which is forecast to swing south across the area through Wednesday
evening. Colder conditions and mostly poor vent rates will prevail
behind the front through Friday. An upper level ridge will attempt
to amplify along the west coast late in the weekend and into early
next week, leading to an uptrend in pressure heights across our
region and a continued stable atmosphere with mostly poor
ventilation. Winds will trend down late in the weekend and into
early next week as a result.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  39  48  17  43 /  50  50   0   0
Dulce...........................  32  45  12  43 /  70  70  10   0
Cuba............................  35  44  18  42 /  20  40  10   0
Gallup..........................  35  46  14  46 /  10  50  10   0
El Morro........................  37  46  21  45 /   5  60  30   0
Grants..........................  38  49  16  47 /   5  40  20   0
Quemado.........................  39  54  24  49 /   0  30  30   5
Magdalena.......................  44  60  30  49 /   0  10  10   5
Datil...........................  40  56  26  50 /   0  10  10   5
Reserve.........................  33  60  24  59 /   0  10  10   5
Glenwood........................  42  63  35  62 /   0  10   5   5
Chama...........................  30  39   9  38 /  90  80  10   0
Los Alamos......................  41  46  26  41 /  20  30  10   0
Pecos...........................  38  48  23  43 /  10  40  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  35  41  17  39 /  40  70  30   0
Red River.......................  30  34  10  31 /  60  90  40   0
Angel Fire......................  31  40   6  35 /  40  70  30   0
Taos............................  34  44  16  40 /  30  40  20   0
Mora............................  37  47  17  42 /  10  40  20   0
Espanola........................  41  51  22  48 /  20  30  10   0
Santa Fe........................  40  48  25  42 /  10  30  20   0
Santa Fe Airport................  39  50  22  45 /  10  20  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  56  32  48 /   5  20  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  44  58  31  50 /   5  20  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  43  60  27  52 /   5  20  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  44  58  30  50 /   5  20  10   0
Belen...........................  41  64  30  52 /   5  10  10   0
Bernalillo......................  44  57  27  50 /   5  20  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  40  61  26  52 /   5  10  10   0
Corrales........................  43  58  28  50 /   5  20  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  41  61  28  52 /   5  10  10   0
Placitas........................  46  54  29  46 /   5  20  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  44  57  29  49 /   5  20  10   0
Socorro.........................  44  68  35  55 /   0  10   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  50  26  42 /   5  20  20   0
Tijeras.........................  45  53  27  45 /   5  20  20   5
Edgewood........................  43  53  25  45 /   5  20  20   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  38  56  23  47 /   0  10  20   0
Clines Corners..................  40  51  22  42 /   0  20  20   0
Mountainair.....................  42  57  27  47 /   0  10  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  40  60  28  47 /   0  10  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  50  64  36  52 /   0  10  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  47  60  28  46 /   0   5  10  10
Capulin.........................  31  40  16  37 /   5  50  40   0
Raton...........................  36  48  16  41 /   5  50  30   0
Springer........................  40  51  18  41 /   5  30  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  43  51  20  42 /   5  20  20   0
Clayton.........................  37  44  22  44 /   0  30  30   0
Roy.............................  43  53  23  42 /   0  20  20   0
Conchas.........................  50  63  27  49 /   0  10  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  63  28  48 /   0  10  20   0
Tucumcari.......................  48  61  27  47 /   0  10  20   0
Clovis..........................  46  67  31  47 /   0   5  10   0
Portales........................  46  68  32  48 /   0   5  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  45  68  30  48 /   0  10  10   0
Roswell.........................  48  78  39  49 /   0  10  10   0
Picacho.........................  54  70  34  48 /   0   5  10   0
Elk.............................  51  68  31  48 /   0   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Wednesday for NMZ210.

High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Wednesday for NMZ213>215-227.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ229.

Wind Advisory until 8 AM MST Wednesday for NMZ223-233.

High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Wednesday
for NMZ228-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...24