457
FXUS65 KABQ 201122 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 513 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

- Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
  small hail, and cloud-to-ground lightning will develop each day
  through next week. The threat for excessive rainfall will focus
  over low-lying and poorly drained areas, and especially over
  recent burn scars.

- Moderate heat risk will affect the lower elevations of the Rio
  Grande Valley and eastern plains today where highs climb into
  the upper 90s to near 100F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1228 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Overnight showers have tapered off much quicker than last night and
conditions are setting up much clearer heading into this morning.
The Land of Enchantment remains entrenched in a fairly typical
monsoon plume highlighted by PWATs near 1.00" with the main H5 high
still positioned over the southern CONUS and a weakening H5
low/trough over SoCal. Modest steering flow between the high and
troughing pattern will take thunderstorms developing over the
central and western mountains near noon toward the NNE this
afternoon. Individual cells will move over surrounding lower
elevation areas in a similar fashion to what was observed Saturday
afternoon. Convection along the Continental Divide will push
northeastward into portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley near ABQ
and Santa Fe as well as portions of Cibola, McKinley, and Sandoval
Counties. Numerical model guidance is latching onto MixHgts of 10K
to 12K feet lowering boundary layer moisture and increasing DCAPE to
~800-900 J/kg. This will allow this cluster of convection to produce
some fairly strong downburst wind gusts associated with their
outflows for the areas mentioned above during the mid-to-late
afternoon and evening period. Thunderstorms will move more ENE off
the Sangre de Cristo`s over the northeastern highlands with a bit
more efficient rainfall production still threatening some isolated
flash flooding over low-lying, already soaked and poorly drained
areas. Thunderstorms developing over the Sacramento Mts near Ruidoso
will also favor a NE motion. Due to the modest SBCAPE of ~800 J/kg
being resolved and storm motion toward the NE, will forgo issuance
of a Flash Flood Watch for the Ruidoso area burn scars today. Drier
conditions with hotter weather near 100F will be favored over
southeastern portions of the forecast area from Clovis to Roswell,
as well as over the Four Corners area. Convection will again taper
off this evening and overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1228 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Monday through Wednesday features a continued stream of monsoonal
moisture into the Land of Enchantment with daily rounds of
thunderstorms developing over the high terrain near midday before
moving over surrounding lower elevation areas. Weak disturbances
embedded within this flow will help enhance the convective activity
each of these days and thus the threat of flash flooding over recent
burn scars. There are notable differences however between
deterministic runs of each of the main global numerical model
solutions each day. While each of the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF feature a
MCC/MCV developing Monday night over the Sierra Madre Occidentals of
northwestern Mexico, each differ on where this feature goes Monday
night into Tuesday morning with a wide array of locations ranging
from the Big Bend, to still over Chihuahua, to over the Gila NF. As
has been observed in recent healthy plumes of monsoonal moisture
with said disturbances embedded within, how these features will
impact the timing, coverage, and intensity of afternoon thunderstorm
activity over the forecast area will remain a question until the
morning of each day or perhaps even all that day.

Thereafter, the extended period continues to feature a waning of the
monsoon plume and a development of a more textbook monsoon high over
the Desert Southwest. Numerical model solutions are still grabbing
onto a 600dm H5 strength. Ensemble clusters are also coming into
better agreement on this as well. Bottom line, the final week of
July looks hotter and drier than recent weeks. The question remains
how much monsoonal moisture will remain beneath the ridge, available
to be recycled as diurnal convection?

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR prevails thru the morning with only isolated pockets of fog
and mist in northern valley locations like KAXX. Today`s
thunderstorm activity will again favor development over the
central and western mountains near 18Z to 20Z before steadily
moving NNE over surrounding lower elevation areas. PROB30s and
TEMPOs are included at terminals where the highest confidence lay
for impacts from passing thunderstorms late in the day b/w 21Z to
04Z. Conditions calm again thereafter tonight into Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1228 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025

No prevailing fire weather concerns forecast thru the next seven
days. Afternoon thunderstorm activity will continue to favor
development over the central and western high terrain near mid-day
before generally moving northeastward over surrounding lower
elevations late in the day and evening. Convection along the
Continental Divide in particular today will threaten strong erratic
gusty winds as well as possibly dry lightning over portions of west-
central NM focused over Cibola, McKinley, and Sandoval Counties and
nearby areas. More efficient rainfall production from thunderstorms
is expected Monday thru Wednesday. Otherwise, drier and hotter
conditions with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will favor
southeastern and east-central NM and the Four Corners area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  69  92  65 /   5  20  10  10
Dulce...........................  89  51  89  49 /  20  30  40  20
Cuba............................  87  59  86  58 /  30  40  40  40
Gallup..........................  88  54  87  54 /  40  40  30  30
El Morro........................  84  55  83  55 /  60  60  50  40
Grants..........................  87  56  87  57 /  60  50  50  40
Quemado.........................  83  58  84  56 /  70  60  70  50
Magdalena.......................  85  62  85  62 /  50  50  60  50
Datil...........................  82  56  82  57 /  70  50  70  40
Reserve.........................  87  54  87  53 /  70  50  70  30
Glenwood........................  91  59  91  59 /  70  40  60  30
Chama...........................  82  50  83  49 /  40  30  50  20
Los Alamos......................  86  62  86  62 /  30  30  50  30
Pecos...........................  86  59  86  58 /  40  30  50  30
Cerro/Questa....................  83  56  84  56 /  50  30  60  20
Red River.......................  72  47  75  48 /  50  30  60  20
Angel Fire......................  77  43  78  43 /  50  20  60  20
Taos............................  87  55  87  55 /  40  30  50  20
Mora............................  82  53  83  53 /  50  20  50  20
Espanola........................  92  62  92  62 /  30  30  30  30
Santa Fe........................  87  63  87  62 /  30  30  40  30
Santa Fe Airport................  91  61  90  60 /  30  30  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  69  91  69 /  30  40  40  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  68  93  67 /  20  30  30  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  96  67  95  67 /  20  30  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  68  93  68 /  20  40  30  40
Belen...........................  95  65  95  65 /  20  30  20  40
Bernalillo......................  95  67  94  67 /  20  40  30  40
Bosque Farms....................  95  64  94  64 /  20  30  20  40
Corrales........................  95  68  94  68 /  20  40  30  40
Los Lunas.......................  95  66  94  66 /  20  30  20  40
Placitas........................  91  66  91  66 /  20  30  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  94  68  93  67 /  20  40  30  40
Socorro.........................  95  68  94  67 /  30  40  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  61  86  60 /  30  30  40  40
Tijeras.........................  88  63  88  62 /  30  30  40  40
Edgewood........................  88  58  88  58 /  30  30  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  56  89  55 /  20  20  30  30
Clines Corners..................  85  59  85  58 /  20  20  30  30
Mountainair.....................  87  59  86  58 /  30  30  40  40
Gran Quivira....................  87  59  86  58 /  30  20  50  40
Carrizozo.......................  89  65  87  63 /  30  30  50  30
Ruidoso.........................  81  59  79  59 /  50  20  70  30
Capulin.........................  85  56  86  56 /  40  30  40  20
Raton...........................  88  55  90  55 /  40  20  40  20
Springer........................  91  56  92  56 /  40  20  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  86  57  86  56 /  30  20  40  20
Clayton.........................  93  65  94  66 /  10  20  10  20
Roy.............................  90  60  90  60 /  20  20  20  20
Conchas.........................  98  67  97  67 /  10  20  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  95  65  94  63 /  10  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  97  66  96  64 /   5  20  20  20
Clovis..........................  97  69  95  66 /   5  20  30  20
Portales........................  98  69  96  66 /   5  20  30  20
Fort Sumner.....................  98  68  97  67 /   5  20  20  20
Roswell......................... 101  71  98  70 /  10  20  20  20
Picacho.........................  91  64  89  64 /  30  20  40  30
Elk.............................  87  61  85  61 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24