348
FXUS65 KABQ 221152 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
552 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 541 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue today and
  Saturday mainly along and west of the central mountain chain
  with a risk of cloud-to-ground lightning, erratic wind gusts,
  and ponding of water on roads.

- Smoke from the Frijoles Fire will continue to impact air quality
  in the vicinity of the fire this week.

- Moderate-to-high heat risk will impact much of central and
  eastern New Mexico this weekend through the middle of next week
  with record and near-record high temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A 598 DAM high pressure center will move over eastern NM today
causing high temperatures to climb a few to 5 degrees there from
Friday`s readings. The upper high will remain centered over
eastern NM on Sunday. Readings today and Sunday will vary around
5-12 degrees above 1991-2020 averages with numerous near-record
high temperatures, and even a few record highs in the east. With
this forecast package, will issue a Heat Advisory for the
Tucumcari and Roswell areas this afternoon and early evening. High
clouds moving over Tucumcari at this time shakes confidence there
some, but figure the high pressure center will suppress those as
it moves overhead enabling temps to reach 105 F across at least
parts of Quay and Chaves Counties.

Meanwhile, humidities will trend downward some in most locations
today and Sunday. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms
will favor western and northern areas both days, and high res
models suggest there will probably also be a few cells over
central areas today. With the decreasing humidities locally heavy
rainfall will be less of a concern today, then even less-so
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Models generally depict the center of high pressure aloft shifting
over southeast NM Monday, westward over southwest NM Tuesday and
Wednesday, then a little farther west over the southwest NM border
on Thursday and Friday. This will enable record and near-record
high temperatures to continue each afternoon with the most
widespread record high temperatures on Monday. Hazardous heat
looks to return to the Roswell area again on Monday, which should
make the third day in a row with a high temperature of 105 F. A
series of backdoor fronts will increase Gulf moisture over eastern
areas each day during the first half of the work week, while
western humidities continue to trend lower with each day. The
favored location for showers and thunderstorms will begin to
shift over and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Monday and
Tuesday, along and east of the northern and central mountains
Wednesday, then along and east of the central mountain chain
on Thursday. The risk of locally heavy rainfall will mainly be
over eastern areas Tuesday through Thursday, where PWATs will
climb over 1 inch. With northwest flow aloft over eastern areas,
there will probably be a few strong-to-severe storms each
afternoon and evening. At this time, shear and instability look
most elevated on Tuesday and Wednesday, when the greatest coverage
of severe storms is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor the
northern and western mountains Saturday afternoon and evening,
with isolated activity elsewhere along and west of the central
mountain chain. A few of the stronger cells will be capable of
producing localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 KT.
Storm motion will be slow and variable. Record and near-record
high temperatures as much as 13 degrees above 1991-2020 averages
will make density altitude an important consideration for
aviation operations near complex terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Critically low minimum humidities will be pretty widespread over
eastern areas today and Sunday. Sub-15 percent humidities will
then increase in coverage with each day over central and western
areas during the work week, while decreasing in coverage over
eastern areas with the arrival of Gulf moisture. With decreasing
size of wetting footprints west of the Rio Grande during the work
week, there will be an increasing threat of new fire starts as
spotty showers and storms return mainly to the mountains each
afternoon and temperatures reach near-record readings. Otherwise,
the main fire weather concern will be gusty and erratic
thunderstorm outflow, which will decrease in coverage with each
day through Monday, then increase again with each day across the
east starting Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  96  65  94  64 /   5  10   5   0
Dulce...........................  92  51  90  51 /  20  30  20   5
Cuba............................  89  59  88  59 /  20  20   5  10
Gallup..........................  89  57  90  56 /  30  30  30  10
El Morro........................  85  56  86  55 /  60  30  40  10
Grants..........................  89  58  89  58 /  50  20  30  10
Quemado.........................  86  58  87  58 /  60  10  40   5
Magdalena.......................  88  63  89  64 /  30  10  20   5
Datil...........................  84  58  85  58 /  50  10  30  10
Reserve.........................  92  57  93  58 /  40  10  20   5
Glenwood........................  97  63  98  63 /  20  20  10  10
Chama...........................  85  53  84  52 /  20  20  30   5
Los Alamos......................  89  63  87  63 /  20  20  40  30
Pecos...........................  89  59  89  59 /  20  20   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  87  57  86  56 /  20  20  50  30
Red River.......................  78  49  76  48 /  30  20  40  20
Angel Fire......................  84  43  82  43 /  30  20  30  10
Taos............................  91  57  90  55 /  20  20  40  20
Mora............................  87  55  87  55 /  20  20  20   5
Espanola........................  96  63  94  62 /  10  20  30  20
Santa Fe........................  90  63  89  63 /  20  20   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  93  61  92  61 /  20  20   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  69  96  69 /  20  20   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  95  68  96  68 /  20  20   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  66  98  67 /  10  10   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  69  96  69 /  20  20   0  10
Belen...........................  98  65  98  65 /  20  10   0   0
Bernalillo......................  97  68  98  67 /  20  20   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  98  64  98  65 /  10  10   0   5
Corrales........................  98  68  98  68 /  20  20   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  97  65  98  66 /  10  10   0   5
Placitas........................  93  66  94  67 /  20  20   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  97  68  97  68 /  20  20   0  10
Socorro.........................  99  69 100  70 /  20  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  62  90  63 /  20  20   0  10
Tijeras.........................  90  63  91  64 /  20  20   0   5
Edgewood........................  91  59  92  59 /  20  20   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  93  57  94  57 /  20  20   0   5
Clines Corners..................  89  61  90  61 /  20  20   0   5
Mountainair.....................  91  60  92  60 /  20  20   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  90  61  91  61 /  10  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  93  66  94  67 /  10   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  85  59  87  61 /  20  10   5   0
Capulin.........................  92  59  90  58 /  10  10  30  30
Raton...........................  95  57  93  55 /  10  10  40  30
Springer........................  98  58  96  56 /  10  20  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  90  58  91  57 /  10  20  10  20
Clayton.........................  99  67  98  66 /  10  10  10  30
Roy.............................  96  63  95  61 /  10  10  10  20
Conchas......................... 104  69 104  69 /  10  10   0  20
Santa Rosa...................... 100  66  99  66 /  10  10   0   5
Tucumcari....................... 105  70 105  70 /  10   5   0   0
Clovis.......................... 101  69 102  70 /  10  10   0   0
Portales........................ 102  70 102  72 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Sumner..................... 103  69 103  69 /  10   5   0   0
Roswell......................... 105  70 105  71 /  10   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  98  65  99  66 /  10  10   0   0
Elk.............................  94  62  95  62 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ234-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44