237
FXUS65 KABQ 050609 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1209 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

It may be October, but summer-like high temperatures continue to
linger over much of central and western New Mexico. The front from
last night may have brought some cooler temperatures for eastern New
Mexico, but areas west of the central mountains will once again see
near record temperatures today and over the weekend. Another weak
cold front will push into the area from the northeast on Sunday
afternoon which should lower temperatures a tad for the plains and
bring some slight gusts. An east canyon wind over eastern
ALbuquerque is expected to develop but it should be relatively weak
and short lived. For the rest of the forecast, some increased cloud
cover midweek and high temperatures should gradually drop to the
upper 70s through mid 80s by the end of the period for most of New
Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

The 12Z upper air analysis showed the upper high over the CO/NM
border and the KABQ sounding showed a 500mb pressure height of
590dam, which ties the daily record high. Unusually warm
temperatures are forecast to persist for the foreseeable future
under the influence of this upper high. Saturday will be warmer than
today, with high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal and
challenging daily records at a number of locales once again. A
backdoor cold front will bring gusty northerly winds to northeast NM
late Saturday night. Otherwise winds will be fairly light. A
northerly drainage wind is forecast to develop in the upper RGV
Saturday night, eventually reaching down into the middle RGV early
Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Sunday through Monday... The persistent ridge over our area will
keep things dry and toasty to start the period. However, similar to
earlier in the week, a relatively weak backdoor cold front will make
its way into the area from the northeast during the afternoon hours.
Gusty winds are expected to follow behind the front with up to 30-35
knot gusts for parts of Union, Harding and Quay county. Current
guidance seems to indicate that the front will look to push through
deeper into central New Mexico than previous guidance, so an east
canyon gap wind looks to develop late in the afternoon for the
central valley. This gap wind event should be short lived and weaker
than what we saw earlier in the week. Peak winds shouldn`t be over 20
knots, which would occur just before sunset according to current
guidance. With the passage of the front, low temperatures should
drop a few degrees areawide.

Rest of the week... On Tuesday, southerly flow will return over the
eastern plains which will raise dewpoints a bit in southeastern New
Mexico and high temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Throughout the course of the week, the
anomalously strong high pressure ridge seems to weaken little by
little which brings high temperatures down a degree or two each day
for a majority of the area. Increased cloud cover is expected
starting Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, especially for areas
west of the central mountains. As a result, raised low temperatures
just a tad for the western areas and and lowered max temps by a
couple degrees on Wednesday. With such dry lower levels, some areas
may see virga, but wetting precipitation is not expected. However,
the higher terrain in western and northern New Mexico could see some
sprinkles on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. An
unseasonably strong high pressure system over the southwest US
will produce numerous record high temperatures over northern and
central NM on Saturday, resulting in unusually high density
altitude for this time of year. Strong atmospheric mixing and
modest strengthening of the flow aloft will also result in some
gusty winds Saturday afternoon, mainly across central and
northwest parts of the forecast area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next
seven days. Unusually warm and relatively dry conditions with mostly
light winds will persist through the weekend and into at least the
middle of next week under a dominant upper high. Minimum humidity
will reach critical threshold each day through early next week
across western NM. Humidity and winds may trend up late next week in
advance of an approaching upper low, but lower forecast confidence
on the timing of that feature at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  46  86  43  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  38  83  36  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  44  81  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  34  85  34  84 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  42  83  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  36  86  35  82 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  43  83  42  81 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  52  83  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  44  82  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  41  88  42  87 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  53  91  53  92 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  53  80  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  49  79  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  77  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  37  68  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  26  73  25  71 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  39  80  34  79 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  42  78  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  47  86  45  85 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  52  80  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  48  83  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  86  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  88  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  90  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  88  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  51  91  47  88 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  52  90  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  50  90  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  51  89  47  87 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  52  90  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  55  86  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  54  88  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  57  91  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  80  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  53  82  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  46  83  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  44  84  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  80  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  49  83  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  48  83  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  54  84  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  52  79  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  48  83  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  44  86  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  43  87  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  46  83  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  55  91  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  52  86  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  53  91  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  53  90  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  55  93  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  54  89  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  53  89  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  53  90  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  56  92  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  52  87  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  49  84  52  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...44