601
FXUS65 KABQ 212338 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
538 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

- Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
  small hail, and cloud-to-ground lightning will develop each day
  along and east of the central mountain chain, including the Gila
  region, through Wednesday. The threat for excessive rainfall
  will focus over low-lying and poorly drained areas, urban areas,
  and especially around recent burn scars. More storms may impact
  northeast New Mexico Thursday.

- Moderate heat risk will return to the lower elevations of the
  Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains Saturday through Monday
  where highs climb into the upper 90s to near 100F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

As expected, a complex weather scenario has unfolded over the region
today with several well-defined mesoscale vortices roaming the area.
These small scale features make it difficult even for hi-res models
to resolve the atmosphere and subsequent convective activity. These
features do however tend to bring an uptick in storm coverage and
intensity in their vicinity. The key message remains that chances
will increase for slow-moving storms with locally heavy rainfall and
an elevated risk for flash flooding thru Tuesday. The 18Z KABQ RAOB
shows a PWAT near 1" with SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg, light southerly
steering flow, and cooler mid level temps compared to yesterday. The
latest NBM 90th percentile QPF bullseyes remain focused in areas
from near ABQ southward into this evening and along the Sangre de
Cristo Mts. This lines up well with storm development trends this
afternoon and the broader theta-e ridge axis.

Convective activity today is likely to result in more mesoscale
vortices lingering across the region tonight. Meanwhile, a more
well-defined easterly wave over central TX continues drifting west
toward the Permian Basin. This feature is shown with good model
agreement to reach near Midland Tuesday morning before drifting
north thru west TX Tuesday afternoon. A broad mid level trough
axis currently along Baja CA will also drift northeastward thru
eastern AZ. The combination of these two features will stretch the
monsoon plume over NM Tuesday and Tuesday night. The bulk of model
guidance is showing numerous storms erupting from the Gila region
northeastward to central NM and the Sangre de Cristo Mts. The 13Z
NBM 90th percentile QPF has trended higher with several localized
areas >1" from near ABQ southward. These storms then congeal into
an area of rain with embedded storms that move northward up the
RGV thru Tuesday night. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for
portions of the southwest high terrain, central mt chain, and burn
scar areas Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

By Wednesday, flow aloft will become more west-southwest as the mid
level wave over eastern AZ from Tuesday ejects across NM. PWATs are
still shown >1" for central and eastern NM with additional storms
firing up over the high terrain. Convective coverage and location
of peak rainfall amounts is still uncertain, but expected to favor
areas along and east of the central mt chain again. The NBM 90th
percentile bullseyes focus in this area as well but the amounts
have trended lower compared to recent runs. There is still some
potential for Flash Flood Watches to be issued for at least the
HPCC area of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. The drier air and steering
flow direction may bring a break to the Ruidoso area Wednesday.
The wave exiting the region Wednesday night will help to force a
convectively-aided boundary into northeast NM for Thursday. This
will likely be the focus point for more showers and storms east of
the Sangre de Cristo Mts. The rest of central and western NM is
likely to dry out considerably with surface humidity <20%.

The weekend is still somewhat unclear with respect to waffling
around of the upper level ridge building west into the area. The
latest 12Z runs have backed off again on the strength of the H5
ridge to near 598dm while keeping it farther east along the Front
Range and Great Plains. This may allow low level moisture to pool
northward again toward southern NM and the Gila region by Sunday.
Either way, temps will likely trend upward for the entire area late
this week with decreasing coverage of storms compared to early this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Scattered shower and thunderstorms across the airspace will
continue this evening slowly tapering off at around midnight. Some
lingering showers and storms possible across central and southern
areas overnight. A new crop of showers and storms develop across
the mountain ranges late morning and midday slowly moving east-
northeast into lower elevations of central and northeast NM during
the rest of the afternoon hours into the evening. Coverage will be
greater than today with any storm capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch along with strong
outflow winds, hail, and frequent lightning strikes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The latest forecast remains on track and overall there were only
subtle changes to the weather pattern. Showers and storms with
locally heavy rainfall will persist along and east of the Cont
Divide today and Tuesday then shift eastward toward central and
eastern NM Wednesday. The risk for burn scar flash flooding will
remain high through Wednesday before decreasing thereafter. A weak
backdoor front entering northeast NM Thursday will enhance storms
east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Northwest NM remains very dry so
any storms that moves over those areas will produce erratic
downburst wind gusts to around 45 mph. Drier air will spread
farther east toward the central mt chain by Thursday then take
hold of much of the region Friday and Saturday. Min RH may fall to
near 10% over western and northwest NM while reaching near 15%
closer to the central mt chain. Heat will also build over the
region as a strong area of upper level high pressure sets up near
the TX/OK panhandle this weekend. Latest extended forecast models
are showing another uptick in storm coverage over central and
western NM next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  89  64  89 /  20  10  20  10
Dulce...........................  50  86  47  86 /  30  60  40  50
Cuba............................  59  83  57  84 /  60  60  50  40
Gallup..........................  55  84  56  83 /  30  50  40  30
El Morro........................  56  80  55  79 /  50  70  60  50
Grants..........................  58  83  57  84 /  60  60  60  50
Quemado.........................  57  79  57  78 /  60  80  70  50
Magdalena.......................  62  81  61  81 /  60  70  60  50
Datil...........................  57  78  55  77 /  60  80  60  60
Reserve.........................  54  85  54  85 /  50  80  60  50
Glenwood........................  59  90  58  89 /  40  80  50  50
Chama...........................  49  79  48  80 /  30  70  50  70
Los Alamos......................  62  81  59  80 /  60  70  50  60
Pecos...........................  58  82  56  83 /  60  70  50  70
Cerro/Questa....................  55  81  53  80 /  30  80  50  80
Red River.......................  47  72  45  71 /  30  80  50  80
Angel Fire......................  44  74  42  75 /  30  80  40  80
Taos............................  55  84  53  83 /  30  70  50  70
Mora............................  52  80  51  80 /  40  80  40  70
Espanola........................  62  89  59  88 /  50  60  50  50
Santa Fe........................  62  83  59  83 /  60  70  50  60
Santa Fe Airport................  61  86  58  87 /  60  60  50  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  89  67  89 /  50  60  70  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  90  65  91 /  50  50  60  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  92  65  93 /  50  50  60  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  91  66  91 /  50  60  60  30
Belen...........................  65  92  64  91 /  50  50  60  20
Bernalillo......................  67  92  64  92 /  60  60  60  40
Bosque Farms....................  64  92  64  91 /  50  50  60  20
Corrales........................  67  92  65  93 /  50  60  60  30
Los Lunas.......................  65  92  65  91 /  50  50  60  20
Placitas........................  65  88  63  88 /  60  60  60  40
Rio Rancho......................  67  91  65  91 /  50  60  60  30
Socorro.........................  68  90  67  91 /  50  60  60  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  84  58  83 /  60  60  60  50
Tijeras.........................  62  88  60  87 /  50  60  60  50
Edgewood........................  57  87  57  86 /  50  60  50  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  86  55  85 /  50  60  50  60
Clines Corners..................  57  80  56  80 /  50  60  50  50
Mountainair.....................  58  84  57  83 /  50  60  60  60
Gran Quivira....................  57  82  57  81 /  50  60  60  70
Carrizozo.......................  62  84  62  85 /  50  60  60  50
Ruidoso.........................  57  77  57  77 /  40  80  50  60
Capulin.........................  55  82  53  80 /  20  60  30  70
Raton...........................  54  85  54  83 /  20  70  30  70
Springer........................  56  88  56  86 /  20  60  30  60
Las Vegas.......................  56  83  54  83 /  40  70  40  60
Clayton.........................  65  90  62  88 /  20  20  20  20
Roy.............................  60  86  58  85 /  30  40  30  40
Conchas.........................  67  93  64  93 /  40  40  40  20
Santa Rosa......................  63  90  62  89 /  40  50  50  20
Tucumcari.......................  64  90  62  89 /  30  20  40  10
Clovis..........................  67  92  65  91 /  30  20  40  10
Portales........................  67  93  65  93 /  30  30  40  10
Fort Sumner.....................  67  92  66  92 /  30  30  40  10
Roswell.........................  70  93  68  93 /  20  30  40  10
Picacho.........................  63  85  62  86 /  40  50  50  30
Elk.............................  59  83  59  84 /  30  60  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
NMZ208-212-214-215-221>224-226-229-241.

Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ214-215-226-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...71