Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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866 FXUS65 KABQ 191128 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX 528 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 526 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026 - Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward through Tuesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. - The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along and west of the central mountain chain today and Monday, then mainly along and west of the Continental Divide and over the south central mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. - There is a moderate to high risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars today through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Monsoon moisture with seasonably moist PWATs around 1-1.4" will remain in place over the forecast area through Tuesday with daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Mid level high pressure centers will persist over the CO/WY border and also on the TX/LA coast today, while a weak upper level low remains stalled over southeast NM and west TX. Water vapor imagery early this morning shows some drier and more subsident air associated with the CO high pressure system moving over north central and northeast NM, where it will inhibit convection some today. The high pressure systems are still forecast to consolidate and build over CO Monday, then drift southeastward over OK Tuesday, while the upper low drifts westward over southern NM, then northward along the AZ/NM border. Thus, after today, convection will be shut down across the eastern plains, while showers and storms continue along and west of the central mountain chain. With PWATs being so high, and a disturbance embedded in the periphery of the upper high, there will continue to be a threat of locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding each day. Will continue the ongoing Flash Flood Watch for the extremely vulnerable burn scars of the south central mountains this afternoon, where the flash flood threat is forecast to be moderate each afternoon through Tuesday. High temps will vary from near to around 7 degrees below 1991-2020 averages today, then generally trend a little warmer with each day as the high pressure system builds over CO, then OK. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026 There will be a downtick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday as a ridge axis extends westward from the broad 598 dam upper high over OK, and again on Thursday as the center of high pressure migrates westward near the NM/TX border. There will probably be a little bit of an uptick in storm coverage on Friday as another disturbance embedded in the periphery of the ridge tracks northward along the NM/AZ border and a moist backdoor front moves into the northeast quarter of the state. That same disturbance will probably make north central and northeast NM the most active areas for convection on Saturday as the upper high recenters more squarely over the state. With the upper high gradually moving overhead, high temperatures will generally trend warmer during the latter half of the week. High temperatures will reach the low 100s across the east central and southeast plains each afternoon starting Thursday, and around 100 in the central valley starting Friday, creating moderate to major heat risk from the central valley westward. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will return to southern and western areas this afternoon and evening, with spottier activity elsewhere. Storms will move toward the west and southwest at speeds around 10-20kts. A few of the stronger storms over western and southern areas will again be capable of producing wet microbursts with localized, brief and erratic wind gusts around 45kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026 With seasonably rich monsoon moisture in place, the main fire weather concerns over the next seven days will be strong and erratic thunderstorm outflow, as well as lightning. Wetting rainfall will be most likely along and west of the central mountain chain each day, except for today when isolated showers and thunderstorms may also develop on the east central plains. Minimum humidities will drop near and below 15 percent across southern parts of the east central plains on Friday and Saturday, and also in the lower Rio Grande Valley. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 93 64 95 65 / 10 10 10 60 Dulce........................... 90 53 92 53 / 10 10 20 30 Cuba............................ 85 58 87 58 / 40 20 40 40 Gallup.......................... 85 57 88 56 / 50 30 40 70 El Morro........................ 80 56 83 56 / 60 30 70 60 Grants.......................... 85 58 87 58 / 40 20 60 50 Quemado......................... 81 57 82 57 / 70 40 70 60 Magdalena....................... 83 62 85 62 / 40 20 30 30 Datil........................... 80 57 81 58 / 60 20 60 50 Reserve......................... 87 55 86 55 / 80 40 80 60 Glenwood........................ 89 56 89 57 / 70 40 90 60 Chama........................... 83 51 86 52 / 10 10 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 85 65 87 64 / 10 5 10 10 Pecos........................... 84 56 87 57 / 40 10 20 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 84 55 87 56 / 10 5 20 0 Red River....................... 75 47 78 49 / 10 5 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 79 42 82 45 / 20 10 10 5 Taos............................ 86 54 89 55 / 10 5 10 10 Mora............................ 81 53 84 55 / 20 10 10 5 Espanola........................ 92 64 94 64 / 10 5 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 84 61 87 62 / 40 20 30 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 60 90 61 / 30 20 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 66 92 66 / 40 10 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 68 93 66 / 30 10 20 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 65 94 65 / 20 10 20 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 92 67 93 68 / 20 10 20 20 Belen........................... 92 64 94 64 / 20 10 20 10 Bernalillo...................... 93 67 95 67 / 30 10 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 91 62 93 63 / 20 10 20 20 Corrales........................ 93 67 95 67 / 20 10 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 91 63 93 64 / 20 10 20 20 Placitas........................ 88 66 90 66 / 40 20 30 20 Rio Rancho...................... 92 67 94 67 / 20 10 20 20 Socorro......................... 93 68 95 68 / 40 10 20 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 61 87 61 / 50 10 30 10 Tijeras......................... 85 61 88 61 / 50 10 30 10 Edgewood........................ 86 58 88 58 / 40 10 30 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 53 89 54 / 30 10 30 5 Clines Corners.................. 82 58 85 57 / 20 10 10 5 Mountainair..................... 85 58 87 58 / 40 20 40 10 Gran Quivira.................... 83 57 85 58 / 50 20 50 10 Carrizozo....................... 84 62 85 63 / 60 20 70 30 Ruidoso......................... 78 57 79 57 / 70 30 80 30 Capulin......................... 84 56 87 57 / 10 5 10 5 Raton........................... 90 56 92 57 / 10 5 5 5 Springer........................ 89 57 93 58 / 10 5 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 84 56 87 57 / 20 10 10 0 Clayton......................... 91 65 95 66 / 10 5 0 0 Roy............................. 86 61 89 62 / 20 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 93 65 96 66 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 88 63 91 64 / 10 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 94 67 97 67 / 10 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 90 65 93 65 / 10 10 0 0 Portales........................ 91 65 94 66 / 10 10 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 91 65 93 66 / 20 10 0 5 Roswell......................... 92 68 94 69 / 10 20 5 10 Picacho......................... 86 62 87 63 / 30 20 20 10 Elk............................. 82 58 83 59 / 60 30 50 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this afternoon for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...99