Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
733 FXUS65 KABQ 020005 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 605 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 548 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - The monsoon moisture plume will remain over the area through today with locally heavy rainfall resulting in a flash flood risk, especially around burn scars, urban areas, locales with saturated ground, and poorly drained areas. - Severe thunderstorms will favor the northeast quadrant of New Mexico on Friday and Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main hazards. - Daytime temperatures will increase for the early to middle portion of next week. There is high confidence in widespread moderate to locally major heat risk impacts, particularly for individuals without adequate cooling and hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Another afternoon of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected across the area today, focused mainly on southwest and northeast NM. The 500mb high pressure has shifted slightly westward, centered over the AZ/Mexico border. This continues to provide slow storm motions across the area, with the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Gila Region and South Central Mountains, including Ruidoso, for these slow moving thunderstorms. Activity in this area should begin to taper off after 6-7pm tonight. Across the northern periphery of the upper high, a shortwave treks across and clips northern and northeast NM, providing additional lift and increasing the bulk shear across the area. In response to this, thunderstorms initiating off of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and across northeast NM have the chance to turn severe, with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the primary threats. This region is outlined by the Day 1 Marginal risk of severe weather by the SPC. Additionally, while storm motion is likely to be faster than the storms in the southern part of the state, soils are very saturated after consistent wetting rainfall across the northeast, and it will not take much rainfall to produce flooding concerns. Therefore, a Flash Flood Watch also remains in effect for much of northeast NM, where a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall has been issued by the WPC. A broken to solid line of storms is expected to continue traveling southeast across eastern NM, where SBCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and bulk shear around 30kt should allow for a continued threat of damaging winds and large hail into the early evening hours, before diminishing around and/or south of the I-40 corridor by midnight. The upper high begins to migrate slightly towards NM on Saturday, with once again another round of scattered thunderstorms across the high terrain. Coverage is likely to be lower given a lowering of PWAT values and the high beginning to move over the state. An increase in instability and bulk shear appears favorable across far northeastern NM Saturday afternoon, sprouting another risk of severe thunderstorms for the area. Confidence is a bit lower in this occurring in the state though, as most guidance is keeping the more favorable parameters within the TX Panhandle, where a slight risk of severe weather exists. Elsewhere, a minor flash flood risk remains with any slow moving thunderstorm, but current trends show that coverage and amounts should be low enough to forego a Flash Flood Watch. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 The hazards across the state quickly shift from flooding in the short term to heat risk in the long term. The high pressure begins to shift itself directly over NM by Sunday and continuing to park itself there throughout the bulk of next week. Temperatures begin to jump up significantly on Sunday, with several low elevation locations seeing high 90s and low 100s, with the potential for mid 100s in Roswell. A light backdoor cold front provides slight relief to eastern NM on Monday before the upper high reinforces itself. Most guidance is suggesting that the high reaches 600dm by mid-week, which may set daily records, especially if recorded by upper air soundings from ABQ. In addition, GFS forecast PWATs drop to under 0.3" by Monday, which would be a daily record minimum PWAT for the 00z sounding. Needless to say, a dry regime is making its way into the state. Because of that, widespread moderate to major risk of heat related impacts is likely to begin Sunday and continue throughout the bulk of next week. Sunday and Monday are likely to be focused across the Rio Grande Valley and southeast NM, including Albuquerque and Roswell, before spreading to much of the state as a continued stretch of hot temperatures with warm low temperatures bring about potential heat impacts. Folks should continue to stay hydrated, take breaks if working outside, and avoid long, direct exposure to the sun. Outside of the temperatures, isolated to scattered storms may begin to develop across the western and northern high terrain as monsoon moisture seeps into the state from a plume over AZ. Given the expected strength of the high, these storms are likely to be short-lived with only isolated areas of heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening with the greatest coverage of storms over eastern areas where one or two broad clusters of thunderstorms are forecast to drift toward the southeast around 10-20 KT. A few storms over northeast and east central areas may turn severe this evening by producing large hail and wet microbursts with wind gusts near 60 KT. High res models depict a cluster of storms continuing to drift southeastward across the east central and southeast plains through the late night hours, finally exiting southeast of the forecast area around 10Z. Airports impacted will likely include those from KTCC to KROW, including KSXU, KCVN, KCVS, and K4MR. We have low confidence on patches of low clouds producing MVFR conditions east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Mountains late tonight into early Saturday morning, but it may happen if the surface winds can turn upslope as a few models suggest. On Saturday afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor the southwest mountains, south central mountains, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 No critical fire weather conditions are expected throughout the next several days, though several areas of elevated fire weather conditions are likely. A significant drying trend is expected to begin Saturday before fully materializing Sunday. Humidity values plummet into the low teens and single digits across a majority of the state Sunday. Of note are several hours of single digit humidity, with locations across Fire Weather Zone 101 (Farmington area) potential experiencing upwards of 13 to 18 hours of single digit humidity on Sunday and Monday respectively. Additionally, poor to at best fair humidity recoveries are expected overnight through the first several days of this dry stretch. Some thunderstorms are possible across the high terrain getting into the middle of next week, but given very dry air at the surface, dry thunderstorms are a threat and new fire starts may occur. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 95 59 94 / 10 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 49 88 46 89 / 20 10 5 0 Cuba............................ 56 88 56 89 / 30 10 10 0 Gallup.......................... 53 91 52 92 / 20 5 0 0 El Morro........................ 55 87 54 88 / 30 10 5 0 Grants.......................... 57 90 55 92 / 30 10 5 0 Quemado......................... 58 87 57 90 / 30 20 10 0 Magdalena....................... 62 87 63 92 / 40 30 10 0 Datil........................... 57 85 57 89 / 30 30 10 0 Reserve......................... 56 92 55 95 / 20 30 5 0 Glenwood........................ 61 97 61 99 / 30 20 5 0 Chama........................... 48 81 48 83 / 20 20 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 57 84 60 87 / 30 20 10 0 Pecos........................... 55 85 56 87 / 30 20 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 82 53 84 / 30 30 10 0 Red River....................... 44 73 45 76 / 30 30 10 5 Angel Fire...................... 40 77 40 79 / 30 30 10 5 Taos............................ 51 85 51 88 / 30 20 5 0 Mora............................ 49 81 50 83 / 40 30 10 5 Espanola........................ 58 91 59 94 / 30 10 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 59 86 60 89 / 30 10 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 89 59 92 / 30 10 10 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 92 68 95 / 40 10 10 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 93 66 97 / 30 10 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 96 65 99 / 30 10 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 94 66 97 / 30 10 10 0 Belen........................... 63 95 63 100 / 30 10 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 63 94 65 97 / 30 10 10 0 Bosque Farms.................... 62 95 62 99 / 30 10 10 0 Corrales........................ 65 95 66 98 / 30 10 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 64 95 64 99 / 30 10 10 0 Placitas........................ 62 91 64 94 / 40 10 10 0 Rio Rancho...................... 65 94 66 97 / 30 10 10 0 Socorro......................... 66 96 66 101 / 30 10 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 86 59 90 / 40 10 10 0 Tijeras......................... 60 88 61 91 / 30 10 10 0 Edgewood........................ 54 88 56 91 / 30 10 10 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 89 53 92 / 40 10 10 0 Clines Corners.................. 55 84 56 86 / 40 5 10 0 Mountainair..................... 57 87 59 90 / 30 10 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 57 87 59 90 / 30 10 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 63 89 66 93 / 20 20 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 56 81 59 85 / 10 30 5 5 Capulin......................... 50 82 52 84 / 70 40 30 10 Raton........................... 50 86 50 88 / 50 40 20 5 Springer........................ 52 88 53 91 / 60 30 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 52 84 53 87 / 40 20 10 0 Clayton......................... 59 87 59 89 / 60 20 40 5 Roy............................. 55 85 56 89 / 60 20 20 5 Conchas......................... 61 94 62 97 / 60 10 20 0 Santa Rosa...................... 59 91 61 95 / 50 10 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 59 91 61 95 / 50 10 30 0 Clovis.......................... 64 93 66 98 / 40 5 30 0 Portales........................ 64 95 68 99 / 40 10 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 63 94 66 99 / 40 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 69 98 71 104 / 20 5 5 0 Picacho......................... 61 91 64 96 / 20 20 5 0 Elk............................. 58 87 62 92 / 10 20 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ214-215-227>234. Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ208-226-241. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...44