655
FXUS65 KABQ 251142 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
542 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 529 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

- Moderate heat risk will return to the lower elevations central
  and east Saturday, then to lower elevations central valley
  westward on Sunday. Cooler temperatures are forecast next week.

- After a downtick in storm coverage today, then little or no
  activity on Saturday, monsoon moisture will begin to spread
  northward over New Mexico again on Sunday. Then, monsoon
  moisture will surge over the forecast area during the first half
  of the coming work week with locally heavy rainfall daily, as
  well as the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding
  mainly during the afternoon and evening each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 125 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Shortwave ridging will be the rule over the state today. Drier
air aloft will continue to shift eastward. By late this
afternoon, PWATs will fall below 0.5" across western NM and
between 0.5 and 0.75" along the Rio Grande Valley. Thus, another
quiet day is in store for areas along and west of the RGV.
Meanwhile, enough moisture will remain along and east of the
Central Mtn Chain for another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Storms should form over the high terrain between 1pm and 3pm
before shifting eastward over the lower elevations. Fortunately,
hi-res models show much of the activity across the Sacramento
Mountains along the east slopes, sparing the Ruidoso area this
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty outflows will be the
main concern across northeast NM today, but coverage will trend
downward from yesterday. Much of the activity will diminish around
sunset or shortly thereafter.

The drier air continues to push into NM on Saturday, with PWATs
around 0.5" or less from the Central Mtn Chain westward. This
will significantly limit the amount of convection Saturday
afternoon, with only isolated activity possible over the high
terrain and far east central NM where the best moisture will
reside.

Temperatures will trend upward both today and Saturday thanks to
the lack of cloud cover and precipitation chances. On Saturday, in
particular, mid 90s to near 100 degrees will be common at lower
elevations of central and eastern NM. These temperatures will be
near to just above normal for late July.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 125 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

All signs look to an uptick in convection early next week. An
easterly wave will move over northern Mexico as it rounds the
sprawling upper high. Monsoon moisture will return to the
southeastern half of the CWA on Sunday, with a slight uptick in
convection over the higher terrain (particularly around the
Sacramento Mtns). The moisture will continue to spread
northwestward Monday and Tuesday. PWATs across western NM by
Monday afternoon will be near 0.8" and by Tuesday afternoon, they
will be closer to 1". Storm motions will be toward the north or
northwest around 10 mph each day. Relatively slow motions and the
increase in PWATs will allow for locally heavy rainfall each
afternoon and evening. Some of these areas have really not seen
appreciable rainfall since early June, including Farmington and
Gallup. This set up will favor precipitation chances across
central and western NM where the precipitation is needed and keep
precipitation chances very low across eastern NM. The caveat will
be rainfall rates. Enough instability will be present for high
rainfall rates both Monday and Tuesday afternoons, which may lead
to flash flooding. Not much changes on Wednesday, though storm
motions will be more toward the north or northeast. Will also be
watching for the remnants of the easterly wave to shift northward
over western NM, though models differ on the timing of this. All-
in-all, Wednesday still looks to be an active day.

On Thursday, a few models are hinting at building the upper high
back over NM and reducing PWATs as drier air works in from the
southeast. This would divert much of the monsoon plume more over
AZ if true, but there`s enough disagreement that confidence is low
in this scenario. For now, persistence is in the forecast with
central and western NM being favored for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Drier air will continue to move into NM today. Showers and
thunderstorms are still expected along and east of the Central
Mountain Chain, though coverage and intensity will decrease from
Thursday. KLVS and KTCC may be impacted as storms roll eastward
off the high terrain around 5-10kt. Brief heavy rainfall and gusty
outflow winds will be possible. Much of the activity will
diminish around sunset or shortly thereafter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Drier air will continue to push into NM from the west through
Saturday, resulting in a downtrend in storm coverage. Few storms
are expected by Saturday. Single digit humidity values are likely
across western NM each day, while sub-15% RH is expected as far
east as the Rio Grande Valley. Poor RH recoveries are in store for
northwest NM. Moisture will begin to return on Sunday, though
western NM will remain quite dry with a few hours of single digit
RH possible. Monsoon moisture will return in earnest early next
work week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon and evening. Wetting rain, if not heavy
rainfall, is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  59  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  88  48  88  46 /   5   5   0   0
Cuba............................  87  55  89  56 /  10   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  87  49  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  84  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  89  52  89  52 /   5   0   5   0
Quemado.........................  85  54  87  54 /   0   0   5   0
Magdalena.......................  87  59  87  60 /   5   0   0   5
Datil...........................  84  53  86  53 /   5   0   5   0
Reserve.........................  91  53  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  95  58  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  81  48  81  48 /  30  10   5   0
Los Alamos......................  83  61  85  62 /  20  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  84  55  87  56 /  40  20  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  81  53  83  53 /  50  20  10   0
Red River.......................  72  43  75  44 /  60  20  20   0
Angel Fire......................  75  38  78  37 /  60  20  20   5
Taos............................  84  52  86  53 /  40  20   5   0
Mora............................  80  50  83  51 /  50  20  20   5
Espanola........................  91  58  93  58 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  85  59  87  60 /  30  10   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  88  58  91  58 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  66  92  68 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  67  94  69 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  61  95  61 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  64  94  66 /   5   5   0   0
Belen...........................  94  62  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  94  62  94  64 /   5   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  94  60  95  61 /   5   5   0   0
Corrales........................  95  63  95  65 /   5   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  94  61  95  63 /   0   5   0   0
Placitas........................  90  63  91  63 /  10   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  93  64  94  65 /   5   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  96  65  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  58  87  59 /  10   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  87  59  88  61 /  10   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  87  55  88  57 /  10   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  88  51  89  53 /  10   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  82  56  85  57 /  20  10   5   0
Mountainair.....................  85  57  88  58 /  10   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  85  57  87  59 /  10   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  88  63  91  65 /  20   5   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  81  54  84  55 /  30   5  20  10
Capulin.........................  79  52  85  53 /  50  30  20   5
Raton...........................  83  52  89  53 /  50  30  10   0
Springer........................  86  53  91  53 /  50  20  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  83  53  87  54 /  40  20  10   5
Clayton.........................  84  62  92  64 /  30  20  10   5
Roy.............................  83  57  88  59 /  30  20   5   5
Conchas.........................  91  63  96  65 /  20  20   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  88  61  94  63 /  20  20   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  87  62  93  65 /  20  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  92  65  97  67 /  20  10  10   0
Portales........................  93  65  97  67 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  92  65  96  67 /  10  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  96  69 100  70 /  10  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  89  61  92  62 /  20  10  10   5
Elk.............................  87  59  88  60 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34