Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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498 FXUS65 KABQ 071725 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1025 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1024 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 - There is high confidence for dry and warmer weather for most of central and northern New Mexico through next weekend, leading to snowmelt across midslope and high terrain areas. - There is a low to moderate chance that strong west to northwest winds create difficult crosswinds for high-profile vehicles in the Central Highlands Tuesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1156 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 The Pacific portion of the front associated with the exiting trough has pushed through much of western and central NM, with a cooler and slightly drier airmass pushing in from the north. Winds associated with the backdoor portion of the front are slightly stronger as the front pushes in from the east, creating a brief period of gusty northeast winds with its passage. The cooler air funneling in tonight will translate to colder temps tonight in mid-slope and high elevation areas, but will disturb strong valley inversions from developing and that will keep temps a tad warmer tonight in these areas. Northwest winds slacken tomorrow as flow aloft weakens. High temperatures will be right around seasonal averages in most areas, with slightly below average temps in northern NM and slightly above average in southern areas. Light winds and near average temperatures will be the story once again on Monday. The only sensible weather difference will be increased cloud cover, particularly early in the day. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1156 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 Dry northwest flow will dominate over the southern Rockies throughout the duration of next week, as ridging slowly amplifies over the eastern Pacific and California. A strong breeze will develop in the typical windy areas on Tuesday afternoon. NBM probs of wind gusts greater than 45 mph are still lower than 20% everywhere so these slightly stronger winds will likely be unimpactful. A couple of weak backdoor frontal passages will intrude eastern NM Tuesday night and again Thursday night, dropping temps a few degrees, but the overall trend will be a warming one as 700 and 500 mb heights tick upward. Thursday is on track to be the warmest day of the week, with highs reaching into the 70s in the southeast plains. Thanks to a downsloping breeze, NBM guidance is showing a 40% chance of temps reaching 80 degrees in Roswell. This would break the previous record of 79F set back in 1987. A few other locations such as Fort Sumner, Portales, and Clovis may approach record territory as well. By next Sunday/Monday, there is around 10% of ensembles that are finally breaking down the ridge and ushering in a more progressive pattern over the western CONUS that could finally bring some moisture into New Mexico. However, the other 90% are keeping anomalous ridging over the desert southwest, keeping the dry and warm pattern around for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025 VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. High clouds will increase from the northwest late today and tonight, then decrease from the northwest Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1156 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025 A colder airmass will continue sliding in from the north tonight, with breezes weakening in most areas by sunrise as the pressure gradient weakens. Winds will be relatively light Sunday and Monday, resulting in poor to fair ventilation in most areas. Winds increase slightly Tuesday as northwest flow amplifies once again. This will likely create a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions from the Central Highlands southward, but fire weather concerns remain low given that ERCs are below the 50th percentile. Temperatures continue warming mid-week as northwest flow remains entrenched overhead. The dry and warm pattern looks to continue through at least the weekend, likely extending into at least the early portion of the following week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 45 24 46 23 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 43 12 47 12 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 43 21 47 21 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 50 20 52 18 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 48 25 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 51 20 53 19 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 49 24 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 51 29 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 49 25 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 59 22 63 22 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 65 26 67 25 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 38 14 43 16 / 10 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 41 25 45 26 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 45 24 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 19 43 21 / 10 0 0 0 Red River....................... 34 14 36 18 / 10 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 38 9 43 11 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 41 14 45 15 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 46 21 50 23 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 48 21 52 21 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 42 27 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 24 48 23 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 48 32 51 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 27 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 25 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 52 28 55 28 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 54 22 54 21 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 51 27 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 53 22 55 21 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 53 26 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 53 23 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 46 30 50 29 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 52 27 55 28 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 57 27 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 27 47 26 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 45 27 48 27 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 45 23 48 23 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 47 18 50 18 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 42 24 45 24 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 48 25 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 49 26 53 26 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 30 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 30 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 43 20 50 23 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 46 19 53 21 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 49 18 56 18 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 46 22 51 23 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 51 25 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 49 23 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 56 23 58 23 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 53 28 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 56 25 58 25 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 56 28 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 57 28 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 56 25 61 26 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 59 27 63 28 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 58 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 59 27 63 29 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44