059
FXUS65 KABQ 241909
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1209 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Breezy to locally windy northwesterlies will bring crosswinds to
  area highways this afternoon.

- Those with travel plans after Thanksgiving, including this
  weekend and early week, will want to stay updated with the
  latest weather forecasts and statements. Be prepared to alter
  travel routes or plans, as there are increasing indications a
  potent storm system will bring travel impacts across the Desert
  Southwest, including New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1201 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Conditions have cleared out aloft with low-level moisture and cold
hanging around portions of west-central and northern NM this
morning. This has allowed the deck of stratus and mist and fog to
persist in these areas of the state, notably across San Juan County
and portions of the Upper Rio Grande Valley b/w Taos and the CO
state line. Steadily increasing northwesterly flow aloft has already
begin, and will steadily spread lower to elevations this afternoon.
Breezy to locally windy conditions will focus in areas along and
east of the Rio Grande Valley.

A shortwave trough moving over eastern MT/WY will try to close off
to a low over the northern Great Plains Tuesday. This system will
send down a cold front backing south and west into northeastern NM.
CAA behind the cold front will knock high temperatures back 5F to
10F mainly along and norther of U.S. Hwy 60 thru eastern NM
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1201 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

The dry cold front advances further south and westward Tuesday night
into Wednesday bringing the 5F to 10F temperature drop to areas
along and south of U.S. Hwy 60 with a more moderated cooldown along
the highlands. The frontal boundary washes out thru the day
Wednesday with warming and calm conditions persisting thru Thursday
and Friday.

Saturday begins to see increasing southwesterly to westerly winds
ahead of a more active weather pattern moving into the western
CONUS. Forecast confidence continues to lower for the Sunday into
early next week period as numerical model guidance and their
associated ensemble means have diverged considerably over the past
24 hours with the forecast strength and track of this next winter
system. A wide range of scenarios for NM ranging from little winter
precipitation to a full on winter storm exists. The current La Nina
setup over the equatorial Pacific gives greater weight to
scenarios with a storm track further north bringing a minor to
moderate winter system to the region as opposed to a stronger
storm system. Those with post-Thanksgiving plans or travel during
this time should remain prudent in staying up-to-date on the
latest forecast trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Remnant MVFR/IFR ceilings persist over portions of west-central
and northern NM this hour, notably at KFMN. This will steadily
clear thru the afternoon, and is already clearing at KGUP. The
question is what hour exactly at KFMN. MVFR/IFR ceilings are
likely to redevelop over these same areas tonight into Tuesday
morning, but not to the same extent. Strengthening winds aloft
will bring some breezy conditions along and east of the central
mountain chain this afternoon. LLWS will remain for a few isolated
spots tonight into Tuesday morning, and have this mentioned at
KROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1201 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

No fire weather concerns through the next 7 days. Breezy to locally
windy conditions exist thru this afternoon. A cold front knocks high
temperatures back 5-10F across eastern NM Tuesday and Wednesday.
Lighter winds and warmer temperatures return Thursday and Friday.
Westerly to southwesterly winds begin to increase Saturday ahead of
a more active cooler and wetter weather pattern Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  29  51  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  20  49  15  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  24  49  20  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  20  52  18  55 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  25  51  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  23  54  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  26  52  24  59 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  32  55  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  28  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  23  62  22  64 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  23  67  24  67 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  18  45  16  46 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  30  49  27  50 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  29  52  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  24  47  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  18  39  17  40 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................   9  46  10  46 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  21  50  18  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  25  52  19  54 /   0   5   0   0
Espanola........................  25  55  21  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  31  50  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  27  52  24  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  55  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  32  57  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  28  60  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  33  57  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  24  58  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  30  58  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  23  59  18  57 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  31  59  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  24  59  20  57 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  33  53  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  32  57  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  33  61  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  30  50  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  31  52  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  28  53  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  24  55  17  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  28  51  22  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  28  54  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  29  55  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  32  59  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  34  55  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  26  43  19  50 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  24  51  19  53 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  22  53  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  26  52  22  55 /   0   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  34  49  25  52 /   0   5   0   0
Roy.............................  29  52  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  29  58  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  32  56  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  29  57  26  58 /   0   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  34  60  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  32  62  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  33  61  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  37  67  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  37  65  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  31  65  24  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24