421
FXUS65 KABQ 040539 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1032 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall, hail,
  strong outflow winds, and frequent lightning strikes will impact
  much of northern and central New Mexico through Wednesday. Heavy
  rainfall may lead to localized flooding, especially around burn
  scars and areas that receive multiple storms.

- Storm coverage is expected to decrease Thursday through Saturday
  with drier type thunderstorms producing erratic downburst wind
  gusts possible, especially across central and western NM. A
  strong to severe storm is still possible over far eastern NM,
  especially Thursday.

- Another burst of showers and thunderstorms is expected to return
  Sunday through Tuesday with locally heavy rainfall, hail, strong
  outflow winds, and frequent lightning strikes possible. Heavy
  rainfall may lead to localized flooding, especially around burn
  scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to
develop across the northern and western high terrain as of 2pm. This
development is highly likely to continue through the afternoon
hours, with assistance from moist upslope flow from the backdoor
front that pushed through northeast NM this morning. This should
continue to ignite showers and storms along the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains through the early to late afternoon hours. Storm motions
are likely to be easterly around 10-20mph, which should work to
limit the residence time of showers over poor drainage areas and
burn scars (specifically HPCC). However, repeated rounds of storms,
or storms that get locked to the terrain, may increase flooding
potential. A few storms that develop this afternoon and evening may
become strong to potentially severe, as SBCAPE values up to 1000
J/kg and modest deep layer shear of 25-40kts may be able to support
sustained updrafts.

Into tonight, a second upper low across southern CA begins to move
into AZ and open up into a wave, introducing a secondary surge of
moisture to the region. Immediately ahead of the low, synoptic
forcing, along with remnant outflow boundaries, should work to keep
showers and embedded thunderstorms going across central NM through
the evening hours to around midnight. This would give the potential
for a round of overnight showers and low flooding potential across
HPCC, however confidence is low to moderate in this development.
HREF is supportive of this development, but with low QPF amounts
(less than 0.25in). The backdoor front also pushes up against the
central mountain chain, sending a gusty gap wind into the ABQ metro
area through the late hours of Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
with gusts likely peaking around 35mph.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a wet day across much of the state,
with focus on northern NM. The aforementioned low/wave continues to
advance towards NM, sending PWAT values above the 95th percentile
across western and northern NM. Additionally, upper level winds
increase as the low passes, which in turns increase the deep layer
shear. With modest instability present, widespread showers and
thunderstorms appear likely tomorrow, with strong to severe storms
possible. This is supported by a Marginal Risk by the SPC for much
of the state on Wednesday. Additionally, storms may be capable of
locally heavy rainfall, and there is high confidence in storms
moving over the HPCC burn scar on Wednesday. Thankfully, storm
motions will be fast (northeast around 20-30mph) and this reduces
residence time of storms over the scars and therefore the
precipitation that falls. However, should repeated rounds of storms
move over the scar, and if Tuesday night rainfall occurs, then a
flash flooding threat will increase. Given this, a Flash Flood Watch
was considered for Wednesday for the HPCC burn scar, but held off
given the limited confidence. Will let future shifts make the final
call on this. Through Wednesday evening, storms continue to drive
into eastern and northeastern NM, with the potential for embedded
thunderstorms to remain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

The moisture begins a downtrend Thursday into the weekend as quasi-
zonal flow begins to overtake the state. There still remains a
slight chance for thunderstorms over the eastern plains, as
sufficient instability and shear should work to induce strong to
severe storms capable of producing hail and strong winds. This is
once again supported by a Marginal Risk by the SPC across the
eastern plains. Thunderstorm chances continue to dwindle moving into
the weekend, with drier air advancing into the region, higher
temperatures settle into the southern areas, with high likelihood of
temperatures in the high 90s near Socorro and Roswell, with low to
mid 90s in the ABQ Metro area. A weak ridge setting up over the area
should allow for an influx of backdoor fronts to enter northeast NM
late weekend and into the early part of next week. This may induce
gusty gap winds through the central mountain chains, as well as work
to increase the chances of precipitation along and east of the
central mountains moving into Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

MVFR conditions will be common with showers and storms through the
TAF period, with short-lived IFR conditions possible. Areas of low
stratus will develop and move west across eastern NM overnight and
result in IFR cigs at KLVS. Ongoing convection across central NM
will gradually transition east and slowly diminish overnight, but
another robust round of storms is forecast Wednesday
afternoon/evening with probable impacts at all TAF sites but KROW.
Storms moving in on KABQ/KAEG/KSAF late Wednesday afternoon will
be capable of producing strong wind gusts, hail and torrential
rainfall.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Wetting precipitation is likely across a majority of the state
late tonight into Wednesday as a second low pressure system moves
into the Desert Southwest, limiting any critical fire weather
concerns. A warming and drying trend is favored to end the week,
with moderate confidence in spots of elevated fire weather
conditions across southwest NM, driven by low teen to single digit
humidities. Winds look to remain light throughout the next
several days, so while RH values will be low, critical fire
weather conditions are not expected. Precipitation chances are
favored to increase across eastern NM to begin next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  55  74  50  77 /  50  80  50  30
Dulce...........................  42  69  40  73 /  50  80  60  20
Cuba............................  48  68  45  74 /  60  90  50  10
Gallup..........................  45  73  40  78 /  50  80  20   5
El Morro........................  48  70  46  75 /  60  80  10   5
Grants..........................  47  73  44  81 /  60  80  10  10
Quemado.........................  49  76  46  80 /  50  50   0   0
Magdalena.......................  54  78  52  83 /  40  40   5  10
Datil...........................  50  76  48  80 /  50  40   5   5
Reserve.........................  47  82  43  86 /  40  20   0   0
Glenwood........................  52  87  49  90 /  20  10   0   0
Chama...........................  40  64  39  68 /  50  90  60  30
Los Alamos......................  52  68  50  73 /  70  90  50  20
Pecos...........................  48  66  48  74 /  70  90  60  20
Cerro/Questa....................  47  66  45  71 /  50  90  60  20
Red River.......................  39  57  38  61 /  60  90  60  30
Angel Fire......................  38  62  36  69 /  60  90  60  20
Taos............................  45  70  43  75 /  50  90  50  10
Mora............................  43  66  42  74 /  70  90  60  30
Espanola........................  53  75  49  81 /  70  90  50  10
Santa Fe........................  52  70  51  74 /  70  90  50  10
Santa Fe Airport................  52  73  50  78 /  70  80  40  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  78  58  82 /  60  70  30  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  58  80  56  84 /  60  60  20   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  82  54  86 /  60  60  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  79  56  84 /  60  70  20   5
Belen...........................  56  84  52  89 /  50  50  10   5
Bernalillo......................  58  80  55  85 /  60  70  30   5
Bosque Farms....................  55  82  51  87 /  60  60  10   5
Corrales........................  58  80  55  85 /  60  70  20   5
Los Lunas.......................  57  83  53  87 /  50  50  10   5
Placitas........................  57  77  56  81 /  60  80  30   5
Rio Rancho......................  58  79  55  84 /  60  70  20   5
Socorro.........................  60  88  58  93 /  40  30   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  72  50  77 /  60  80  30  10
Tijeras.........................  52  75  51  79 /  70  70  30  10
Edgewood........................  49  74  48  79 /  70  80  30  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  47  75  45  81 /  60  70  30  10
Clines Corners..................  46  69  48  77 /  70  70  40  20
Mountainair.....................  49  76  48  81 /  60  50  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  49  77  48  82 /  70  40  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  58  83  57  86 /  30  30  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  51  75  53  80 /  20  30  20  20
Capulin.........................  43  65  47  71 /  60  70  80  40
Raton...........................  45  68  46  77 /  70  80  70  30
Springer........................  47  71  48  77 /  50  80  70  20
Las Vegas.......................  46  67  47  76 /  60  80  70  30
Clayton.........................  47  72  54  77 /  30  40  90  30
Roy.............................  47  70  51  76 /  50  60  80  30
Conchas.........................  51  79  57  84 /  50  50  90  40
Santa Rosa......................  50  77  56  83 /  50  50  70  30
Tucumcari.......................  50  80  58  83 /  40  30  90  40
Clovis..........................  52  80  60  83 /  30  10  90  60
Portales........................  51  81  60  83 /  20  10  80  60
Fort Sumner.....................  52  82  59  86 /  40  20  80  50
Roswell.........................  61  86  66  96 /  10  10  50  30
Picacho.........................  54  81  57  89 /  10  30  40  30
Elk.............................  51  81  54  91 /   5  30  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...11