Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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257 FXUS65 KABQ 031527 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 927 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 925 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025 - Elevated risk of fire spread in eastern New Mexico today due to very dry conditions and breezy southwest winds. Light rain and snow showers will favor western and northern New Mexico, with minor accumulations in the high terrain. - Increased chances for lower elevation rain and snow and potentially significant mountain snow Friday through the weekend. Minor to moderate travel impacts likely in northern and eastern areas. Confidence is high for widespread wetting precipitation. - Cold, with near record low max temperatures for eastern New Mexico on Saturday. Temperatures throughout the state will be 15 to 35 degrees below normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 925 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Deeper moisture over eastern New Mexico has kept a persistent band of cloud cover and light rain along the TX-NM border, so raised PoPs a tad for Curry and Roosevelt counties. While clouds are diminishing a little bit, scattered cloud cover should limit high temperatures in these areas during the afternoon. There is also higher confidence for showers and an isolated thunderstorm to develop in northeastern New Mexico, causing gusty and erratic outflows. Meanwhile, a dry slot should keep conditions pretty clear for the central part of the state. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Rain and snow showers persist throughout northwest and northern New Mexico through today. More significant precipitation returns to the state Friday and Saturday, mainly for eastern New Mexico. Lower elevation areas are likely to receive a much needed mix of rain and snow, while significant snowfall returns to the northern mountains and Raton Pass. A backdoor cold front will increase the potential for blowing snow in eastern New Mexico Saturday, while also sharply dropping temperatures. After this weekend, quieter conditions are in store with gradually warming temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025 The latest water vapor imagery this morning shows a broad upper level trough persisting across the southwest CONUS with several embedded vort lobes stretching from near Phoenix to Grand Junction. Deep-layer southwest flow with a 100kt subtropical jet stretches along the eastern periphery of the trough from north-central MX across southeast NM and west TX. A dry slot beneath this feature with 700-500mb layer winds near 40kt will slide across central and northeast NM today. Falling surface pressure near Clayton and deep mixing will allow stronger winds today with gusts of 40 to 50 mph from near Las Vegas to Clayton. A couple spots in this area may see peak gusts >50 mph however confidence is not high enough to warrant a Wind Advisory at this time. Meanwhile, low level moisture has backed into southeast NM with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s from near Roswell to Clovis and Tucumcari. Light rain has also been observed around Clovis. A sharpening dryline thru this afternoon may allow for a few storms to fire up along the TX/NM border. The other focus today will be more gusty rain and snow showers across northwest NM. The upper level wave currently over northeast AZ will be weakening as the day progresses so the overall coverage will be similar or less than Wednesday. Low level return flow over southeast NM will begin to deepen and make farther progress toward the northwest tonight as large-scale pressure falls begin to take shape over southern AZ. Low clouds will develop westward with this increasing moisture over eastern NM. More light rain is also expected from near Roswell to Clovis. The latest NBM probability for >0.20" tonight is 30-50% in this area. The rest of central and western NM will see increasing cloud cover tonight while lift continues to improve ahead of the deepening upper low over southern AZ. Friday will feature more rain/snow showers across northwest NM while the coverage of showers and storms continues to increase over eastern NM. The dry slot over central NM will be losing its grip with top-down moistening taking place thru the afternoon. However, there may be enough forcing along the dryline with modest CAPE of 400 J/kg and very strong bulk shear to produce a strong storm or two around the Pecos Valley. The focus then shifts to a potent backdoor cold front entering northeast NM by late Friday afternoon. This front will bring dramatically colder air and serve as the focus for increasing coverage of snow along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mts prior to sunset Friday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for parts of this region. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Precipitation continues throughout a majority of New Mexico Friday night as the 500mb low slowly wobbles its way eastward across NM/AZ. A large focus during this timeframe is the evolution of a surging cold front coming down the Front Range of the Rockies. While minor timing differences exist between different models, the most likely corridor of time for this front to enter NM is around midnight Friday. As the front pushes through, it gives additional forcing and upslope flow to the parent low and continued influx of moisture to produce enhanced precipitation rates, especially in and around Raton Pass. In addition, fairly windy conditions are expected behind the front`s passage, which raises the concern of blowing snow across much of northeast NM late Friday and into Saturday. With the strongest winds behind the front likely to be located within Colfax and Union Counties, Highway 64/87 will be prone to low visibilities and brief blizzard-like conditions, heavily impacting travel. With snowfall amounts of 6-12in currently forecast for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and Raton Pass (locally higher amounts near the peaks), amounts up to 6in from I-40 northward along the lower elevations, and the threat for blowing snow creating hazardous travel conditions, have issued a Winter Storm Watch for those areas with this forecast package. The front will continue to push through eastern NM before slipping westward through the central mountain chain. East canyon winds are likely Friday night into early Saturday morning from Santa Fe to ABQ down to Carrizozo. These winds are also likely to limit accumulating precipitation through the middle Rio Grande Valley. The cold air mass behind the front settles in on Saturday, where high temperatures are forecast to be 20-35F below average (mid 40s to low 50s F west of the central mountains, below 40F eastward). Some locations may make a run at setting a record for their daily lowest high temperature. Temperatures like these can be a shock to the system, and proper precautions should be taken. More tranquil weather is favored to set in next week as the parent low moves out and ridging gradually begins to build in. Temperatures on Sunday and perhaps Monday will be influenced by snow remaining on the ground, especially in eastern areas, so current high temperature forecasts may be overdone. Temperatures warm back to average by mid- week with calmer winds and dry conditions. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025 An area of MVFR cigs between KGUP and KFMN this morning will slowly lift after sunrise. This same area will see gusty SHRA/SN develop after 11am then move quickly northeast thru sunset. Mt obscurations and moderate icing are also expected in this area today. Meanwhile, drier southwest winds will increase after 10am from KLVS to KCAO and peak between 30 and 40KT this afternoon. Localized BLDU is possible. The focus will shift to southeast NM where MVFR low cigs are likely to develop westward to near KROW and KTCC after midnight. An area of light rain is also possible with local IFR around KCVN by sunrise. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY OVER NORTHEAST NM... One more day of strong southwest winds with low humidity will impact portions of central and northeast NM today. The highest confidence for a few hours of locally critical fire weather stretches from near Las Vegas to Clayton. The winds will be plenty strong enough but the minimum humidity is a little more marginal. Otherwise, today will be similar to Wednesday with a few more rain/snow showers across the northern and western high terrain with erratic and gusty downburst winds possible. A widespread rain/snow event is looking increasingly more likely Friday and Saturday as a storm system moves slowly east across the region. A potent backdoor cold front moving southwest into eastern NM late Friday will bring much colder air with a transition from rain to south from north to south Friday night. Several inches of snow are likely in the Sangre de Cristo Mts eastward into the high plains of eastern NM. Overall precipitation amounts are likely to average 0.25 to 0.75" across eastern NM with locally heavier amounts up to 1.5". The Rio Grande Valley may be largely shadowed by east winds and thus limit the overall precip. Another maximum is possible along the Cont Divide where 0.25" to 0.50" of precip is possible in the form of snow. Temperatures will be 25 to 40F below normal with this late season winter storm Saturday. A transition toward warmer and drier weather is likely by early next week with relatively light winds thru most of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 48 27 52 33 / 50 10 20 30 Dulce........................... 43 17 49 21 / 50 10 50 60 Cuba............................ 44 23 47 25 / 20 10 50 70 Gallup.......................... 45 19 46 21 / 30 10 60 30 El Morro........................ 43 23 43 25 / 20 20 70 60 Grants.......................... 47 21 48 23 / 20 10 60 60 Quemado......................... 45 24 44 25 / 20 10 80 50 Magdalena....................... 51 29 50 29 / 10 10 50 60 Datil........................... 46 26 45 26 / 10 10 70 60 Reserve......................... 51 24 50 21 / 10 10 70 30 Glenwood........................ 57 28 55 25 / 5 5 60 20 Chama........................... 37 16 42 19 / 50 10 70 80 Los Alamos...................... 47 29 48 28 / 20 5 60 80 Pecos........................... 47 27 47 26 / 10 5 70 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 23 44 23 / 20 5 70 90 Red River....................... 39 18 39 17 / 30 5 90 100 Angel Fire...................... 41 17 40 18 / 10 5 80 100 Taos............................ 47 19 48 21 / 10 5 70 90 Mora............................ 46 23 46 21 / 5 0 70 90 Espanola........................ 52 25 55 29 / 10 0 50 90 Santa Fe........................ 49 28 51 29 / 10 5 70 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 28 54 28 / 10 5 60 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 34 56 36 / 10 10 50 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 55 35 58 34 / 5 5 40 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 33 60 34 / 5 5 40 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 33 57 35 / 5 5 40 80 Belen........................... 58 31 60 32 / 5 5 40 70 Bernalillo...................... 56 32 58 33 / 5 5 40 80 Bosque Farms.................... 57 31 60 31 / 5 5 40 80 Corrales........................ 55 33 58 34 / 5 5 40 80 Los Lunas....................... 57 32 60 33 / 5 5 40 80 Placitas........................ 53 32 54 34 / 5 5 50 80 Rio Rancho...................... 55 33 58 34 / 5 5 40 80 Socorro......................... 60 35 61 34 / 0 10 40 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 30 50 29 / 10 10 60 90 Tijeras......................... 52 30 54 30 / 10 10 60 90 Edgewood........................ 52 26 53 27 / 5 5 50 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 23 53 24 / 0 5 50 80 Clines Corners.................. 49 27 49 23 / 0 5 60 80 Mountainair..................... 51 28 51 26 / 5 5 40 80 Gran Quivira.................... 51 29 51 26 / 0 5 40 70 Carrizozo....................... 55 35 56 31 / 0 10 30 60 Ruidoso......................... 49 33 49 27 / 0 20 40 60 Capulin......................... 51 26 43 18 / 10 5 70 90 Raton........................... 54 25 47 21 / 10 0 80 90 Springer........................ 56 26 50 23 / 0 0 60 90 Las Vegas....................... 50 25 48 23 / 0 5 70 90 Clayton......................... 59 34 50 25 / 20 10 60 90 Roy............................. 56 31 49 25 / 0 5 60 90 Conchas......................... 64 36 56 29 / 0 10 60 90 Santa Rosa...................... 62 35 54 28 / 0 10 60 90 Tucumcari....................... 65 39 56 29 / 5 20 60 90 Clovis.......................... 64 40 54 30 / 30 60 70 90 Portales........................ 66 40 54 29 / 30 70 70 90 Fort Sumner..................... 65 39 56 29 / 0 30 60 90 Roswell......................... 70 44 58 37 / 0 40 60 70 Picacho......................... 61 36 55 30 / 0 30 40 60 Elk............................. 57 33 54 27 / 0 30 40 50 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 48 27 52 33 / 50 10 20 30 Dulce........................... 43 17 49 21 / 50 10 50 60 Cuba............................ 44 23 47 25 / 20 10 50 70 Gallup.......................... 45 19 46 21 / 30 10 60 30 El Morro........................ 43 23 43 25 / 20 20 70 60 Grants.......................... 47 21 48 23 / 20 10 60 60 Quemado......................... 45 24 44 25 / 20 10 80 50 Magdalena....................... 51 29 50 29 / 10 10 50 60 Datil........................... 46 26 45 26 / 10 10 70 60 Reserve......................... 51 24 50 21 / 10 10 70 30 Glenwood........................ 57 28 55 25 / 5 5 60 20 Chama........................... 37 16 42 19 / 50 10 70 80 Los Alamos...................... 47 29 48 28 / 20 5 60 80 Pecos........................... 47 27 47 26 / 5 5 70 90 Cerro/Questa.................... 43 23 44 23 / 20 5 70 90 Red River....................... 33 18 39 17 / 20 5 90 100 Angel Fire...................... 41 17 40 18 / 10 5 80 100 Taos............................ 47 19 48 21 / 10 5 70 90 Mora............................ 45 23 46 21 / 5 0 70 90 Espanola........................ 52 25 55 29 / 10 0 50 90 Santa Fe........................ 49 28 51 29 / 10 5 70 90 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 28 54 28 / 10 5 60 90 Albuquerque Foothills........... 54 34 56 36 / 10 10 50 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 55 35 58 34 / 5 5 40 80 Albuquerque Valley.............. 57 33 60 34 / 5 5 40 80 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 54 33 57 35 / 5 5 40 80 Belen........................... 58 31 60 32 / 5 5 40 70 Bernalillo...................... 56 32 58 33 / 5 5 40 80 Bosque Farms.................... 57 31 60 31 / 5 5 40 80 Corrales........................ 55 33 58 34 / 5 5 40 80 Los Lunas....................... 57 32 60 33 / 5 5 40 80 Placitas........................ 53 32 54 34 / 5 5 50 80 Rio Rancho...................... 55 33 58 34 / 5 5 40 80 Socorro......................... 60 35 61 34 / 0 10 40 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 46 30 50 29 / 5 10 60 90 Tijeras......................... 52 30 54 30 / 10 10 60 90 Edgewood........................ 50 26 53 27 / 5 5 50 80 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 23 53 24 / 0 5 50 80 Clines Corners.................. 48 27 49 23 / 0 5 60 80 Mountainair..................... 49 28 51 26 / 0 5 40 80 Gran Quivira.................... 50 29 51 26 / 0 5 40 70 Carrizozo....................... 56 35 56 31 / 0 10 30 60 Ruidoso......................... 49 33 49 27 / 0 20 40 60 Capulin......................... 50 26 43 18 / 20 10 70 90 Raton........................... 55 25 47 21 / 10 5 80 90 Springer........................ 57 26 50 23 / 5 0 60 90 Las Vegas....................... 51 25 48 23 / 0 5 70 90 Clayton......................... 56 34 50 25 / 40 20 60 90 Roy............................. 54 31 49 25 / 10 5 60 90 Conchas......................... 64 36 56 29 / 10 10 60 90 Santa Rosa...................... 61 35 54 28 / 5 10 60 90 Tucumcari....................... 63 39 56 29 / 20 20 60 90 Clovis.......................... 61 40 54 30 / 60 60 70 90 Portales........................ 62 40 54 29 / 60 70 70 90 Fort Sumner..................... 64 39 56 29 / 10 30 60 90 Roswell......................... 68 44 58 37 / 10 40 60 70 Picacho......................... 62 36 55 30 / 0 30 40 60 Elk............................. 59 33 54 27 / 0 30 40 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for NMZ212-223-228>233. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for NMZ213>215-227. && $$ Update...24 SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...42 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated on or about Friday, April 4.