975
FXUS65 KABQ 081808 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1108 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1108 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

 - A major winter storm continues to impact north central and
   northeast NM with heavy snowfall and blizzard-like conditions
   through early this evening. Dangerous to impossible travel can
   be expected with several road closures well into the overnight.

 - The weight of wet snow on trees will result in downed branches
   that can fall on power lines. Expect scattered power outages.

 - Freezing fog will be a concern this morning (75% to 90% chance
   of occurrence) in the northwest and central valley areas. Lower
   confidence on Saturday morning (35% to 50% chance).

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

A major winter storm continues to slowly chug its way across the
state, bringing impressive snow totals to the northern mountains
and northeast New Mexico that will be measured in feet. Stronger
surface winds over the northeast plains will create blizzard-like
conditions into the evening. Several road closures and vehicular
accidents have already been reported and will continue throughout
most of the day. As skies clear in the wake of the storm, freezing
fog will develop this morning and again Saturday morning, creating
poor visibilities and slippery roads. The system will finally lose
its grip on New Mexico tonight with an extended period of mostly
dry weather forecast thereafter. Warmer temperatures are forecast
for early next week, but will be limited in areas with significant
snow cover. It appears a weaker disturbance will track through the
area on Tuesday, bringing very light snow showers to the northern
mountains, cooler readings and gusty winds. This system will seem
tame compared to the ongoing storm system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

The center of a strong upper level low pressure system will shift
from over Belen early this morning northeastward to the TX/OK
panhandles by sunset, then northward along the CO/KS border this
evening. Precipitation coverage is forecast to gradually decrease
from the southwest as the storm system gradually shifts
northeastward with mostly rain over southeast areas, a rain/snow mix
over east central areas, and snow elsewhere.  Additional snow
amounts from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward will probably
reach 4-12 inches, except up to 2 feet on Bartlett and Johnson Mesas
near Raton.  A few to 7 inches of snow are forecast west of the
Sangres to the Tusas and Jemez Mountains, and a few inches from the
Sandia and Manzano Mountains eastward to the Caprock of southern
Quay County.  With this forecast package we will cancel Winter Storm
Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories elsewhere.  Blowing snow will
continue to impact Colfax and Union Counties today and this evening,
where north wind gusts up to 45 mph are forecast. Since snow and
blowing snow will continue over far northeast areas through this
evening, we will extend the Blizzard Warning there through this
evening.

Aside from the snow, there will be areas of freezing fog this
morning mainly over central and western areas where there is fresh
snow on the ground, including much of Albuquerque, Rio Rancho, and
Santa Fe.  The freezing fog will probably return to areas that still
have snow on the ground tonight into Saturday morning, but mainly
west of the central mountain chain due to light downslope flow
further east.

After high temperatures around 15 to 28 degrees below 1991-2020
averages today, readings should rebound a few to around 12 degrees
on Saturday.  Low temperatures tonight will be quite cold with
readings mostly in the teens and 20s, except for low 30s along and
southeast of a line from Clovis to Roswell.  The Roswell area can
expect its first freeze of the season early Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

The long term outlook features a lot of subtle differences in the
model guidance, but overall, the trends will generally favor drier
weather conditions given a lack of significant moisture intrusions.

Sunday will feature zonal flow or a low amplitude ridge across NM,
supporting mostly sunny skies, slightly warmer temperatures and a
few afternoon breezes lee of the central mountains. The primary fly
in the ointment is how much snow cover will remain in place and how
much of a factor will it have on temperatures. A weak perturbation
in the flow will migrate through the central Rockies for Sun night,
bringing no more than a few high clouds to CWA.

The next system is progged to dive into the northwest U.S., then
progress eastward towards the high plains on Tuesday. Trends found
within the cluster analysis continues to favor a more shallow and
faster system (65% chance) while the remaining solution suggests a
slower trajectory with below normal heights. Primary concerns will
be centered around stronger winds and have slightly nudged speeds
above NBM guidance. Still maintained the low (10%-20%) probability
for snow showers in the northern mountains, but confidence in this
scenario is waning with each passing model run. Temps will succumb
to CAA in the wake of a Pacific front. Warming returns for the late
work week period as a more pronounced ridge traverses the region.
DPorter

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

IFR and MVFR conditions from low clouds and BR will gradually
break from southwest to northeast this afternoon as an upper level
low exits the state. However, they will linger across north
central and far northeast areas, including KSKX, KSAF, and KRTN
due to wrap around moisture on the backside of the low. Some icing
will be possible on some aircraft in and around KSAF due to
localized areas of BR and FZDZ. VFR conditions return for many
sites this evening and overnight. However, one exception will be
across the the upper and middle RGV, including KSAF and KABQ, and
west slopes of the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo Mountains where
MVFR and IFR conditions look to develop due to low clouds, fog
and freezing fog developing and persisting overnight through just
after sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

As a winter storm gradually exits toward the northeast, wetting
precip will favor locations along and east of the Tusas, Jemez,
Sandia, and Manzano Mountains today with lingering snow accumulation
along and east of Raton Pass this evening.  A few inches to almost 2
feet of additional snow accumulation are expected with the heaviest
amounts up around Raton Pass. After high temperatures around 15 to
28 degrees below 1991-2020 averages today, readings will rebound
Saturday through early next week as dry weather returns.  After
widespread poor ventilation today through Monday, there will be
areas of improvement on Tuesday as winds become gusty in response
to an upper level trough passing north of NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  26  49  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  25  44  11  53 /  10  10   0   0
Cuba............................  20  40  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  18  49  17  57 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  18  45  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  18  48  17  55 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  21  48  21  56 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  27  48  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  24  48  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  21  59  22  66 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  28  64  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  22  40  16  51 /  30  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  23  38  26  47 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  21  40  27  50 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  22  38  21  47 /  40   0   0   0
Red River.......................  20  33  17  42 /  40   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  20  35   7  45 /  30   0   0   0
Taos............................  21  40  16  48 /  30   0   0   0
Mora............................  20  43  23  53 /  20   0   0   0
Espanola........................  27  45  19  53 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  23  38  26  46 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  24  39  21  45 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  30  44  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  28  45  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  29  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  27  45  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  28  48  20  51 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  29  47  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  27  47  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  27  47  22  50 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  27  48  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  28  43  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  27  45  24  49 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  31  54  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  24  39  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  27  41  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  24  40  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  26  41  13  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  21  37  23  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  24  41  20  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  26  43  21  49 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  32  51  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  27  48  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  20  38  22  46 /  50   0   0   0
Raton...........................  19  43  19  50 /  40   0   0   0
Springer........................  20  40  16  46 /  20   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  18  43  22  51 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  26  40  26  48 /  50   0   0   0
Roy.............................  23  39  22  45 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  28  47  26  55 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  29  43  30  50 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  30  50  27  59 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  33  57  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  32  58  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  29  53  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  37  63  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  32  61  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  31  63  32  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ227-230.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ210-
213-214-216.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for NMZ211-212-
217-218-221>223-233-239.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for NMZ234.

Blizzard Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ215-228-
229-231.

Blizzard Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for NMZ232.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Saturday for
NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...71