Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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271 FXUS65 KABQ 232352 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 452 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 437 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024 - Breezy to windy conditions in many locations Sunday when gusts will reach up to 55 mph along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains southward to around Vaughn. - Rain and mainly mountain snow showers mostly over northern areas Monday night through Wednesday night with a few to several inches of snow possible in the northern mountains. - Breezy to windy conditions return Tuesday through Wednesday, then cool on Thanksgiving Day. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 227 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024 Breezy to windy conditions will develop on Sunday. Temperatures will trend cooler Sunday and especially Monday, when highs will vary from around 8 degrees above 1991-2020 averages over southwest areas to around 8 degrees below the averages northeast. After rebounding temperatures Tuesday, readings will fall again Wednesday through Thursday night. A series of disturbances will bring rain and mainly mountain snow mostly to northern areas Monday night through Wednesday night. The northern mountains may accumulate a few to several inches of snow with the greatest amounts in the Tusas Mountains where over a foot of snow looks increasingly likely. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 227 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024 The eastern Pacific jet will continue to strengthen tonight into Sunday, turning more zonal. Winds aloft over NM will strengthen in response with some mountain wave activity likely developing near/downwind of the Sangre de Cristos into Sunday. Moisture will also increase over the state with batches of high cirrus tonight into Sunday before more top-down moistening ensues Sunday night onward. The stronger winds aloft tonight will leave some gusts persisting on high exposed ridges and peaks while inhibiting the development of strong temperature inversions in some areas. Sheltered areas will still see these strong inversions, posing challenges for the overnight temperature forecast. Overall, have trended higher on guidance for tonights lows, with the increase in cirrus also expected to impede radiational cooling. Pressure heights will lower into Sunday as the flow aloft orients itself more westerly which may cause temperatures to remain a couple degrees lower than todays readings, but downsloping into lower elevations will likely overcome this Sunday afternoon. Daytime highs should still be 5 to 15 degrees above average Sunday afternoon. Winds aloft will not relent much Sunday night with more cirrus streaming in, and this will keep minimum temperatures milder than they otherwise would be. The exception to this generalization will be in northeastern NM (mainly Colfax and Union counties) where a backdoor cold front will be entering Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 227 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024 In the wake of Sunday`s cold fronts, high temperatures will cool a few to around 23 degrees on Monday with the greatest temperature drop on the eastern plains. Winds will also weaken considerably as a low amplitude ridge of high pressure crosses. An upper level trough will cross northern and eastern NM from the northwest mid week with a few to several inches of snow accumulation in the northern mountains. Rain showers and mainly mountain snow showers will begin as early as Monday night along and west of the northern mountains due to a series of preceeding shortwave troughs that will track eastward along the CO/NM border. The system will also strengthen winds with breezy to windy conditions mostly along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Tuesday, then across most of our high terrain as well as east central areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. The potential exists for west wind gusts to reach 55 mph in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Tuesday night, then along the east slopes of the central mountain chain from Las Vegas southward Wednesday. After rebounding temperatures Tuesday and Tuesday night, readings will fall Wednesday through Thursday night. Highs will bottom out on Thursday from near 30-year averages over southwest areas to as much as 12 degrees below the averages elsewhere. High temperatures will begin to rebound some under dry northwest flow aloft on Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 437 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024 VFR will occur the next 24 hrs at all terminals. Localized wind gusts of 20 to 30KT near the higher terrain late this afternoon will continue overnight while another batch of cirrus develops from west to east. LLWS will increase for KGUP and KLVS given the stronger winds aloft after sunset. Strong southwest and west winds will develop after 11am Sunday with gusts of 30 to 40KT common for the high terrain, western NM, and the eastern plains. Thicker cirrus and patchy mid level clouds will also overspread the region Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM MST Sat Nov 23 2024 After a stretch of widespread poor smoke dispersion and ventilation, increasing winds aloft are starting to create a few pockets of better mixing today. These areas of improved mixing and ventilation will increase more into Sunday, but will start to decline Monday. After breezy conditions in a few areas today, stronger winds aloft will mix down to the surface on a more widespread basis Sunday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph being more common (and locally up to 40 to 50 mph near the Sangre de Cristos and central highlands). Many areas will observe minimum humidity of 15 to 25 percent on Sunday, leading to elevated or marginally critical conditions, particularly over the highlands and at the interface with the high plains. A cold front will then back into NM from the northeast Monday, leading to lighter winds (and less mixing and smoke ventilation), but this respite will be short-lived with stronger winds redeveloping Tuesday. Fortunately, humidity will be increasing substantially into Monday and Tuesday as Pacific moisture seeps in from the west, so no critical fire weather concerns are expected. Breezy to windy conditions will resume Wednesday with an upper level disturbance also bringing a quick shot of rain and mountain snow to northern areas of NM. Drier and less windy weather looks to prevail Thanksgiving Day through Friday and Saturday with minimum humidity remaining at or above 30 percent each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 29 57 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 21 54 22 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 28 57 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 25 59 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 24 56 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 25 61 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 26 63 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 36 63 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 29 61 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 24 65 28 66 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 35 67 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 23 49 22 45 / 0 5 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 36 55 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 34 57 31 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 30 51 28 46 / 0 5 0 0 Red River....................... 28 45 27 39 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 30 48 29 42 / 0 5 0 0 Taos............................ 23 55 25 48 / 0 5 0 0 Mora............................ 34 59 29 50 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 29 62 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 32 55 34 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 30 58 32 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 34 60 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 36 62 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 64 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 63 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 30 65 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 33 63 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 28 64 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 32 62 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 29 63 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 33 60 36 54 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 34 61 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 35 68 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 35 56 34 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 36 58 36 53 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 33 58 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 25 61 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 34 57 31 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 34 61 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 33 61 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 40 65 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 40 62 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 30 56 24 41 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 30 63 25 48 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 29 60 25 46 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 37 62 30 47 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 42 69 30 46 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 35 66 29 45 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 39 73 34 52 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 39 69 37 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 41 72 34 50 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 42 73 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 39 73 39 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 39 74 39 55 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 40 75 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 45 74 46 65 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 46 72 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Sunday for NMZ215-223-229- 233. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...42