Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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454 FXUS65 KABQ 082322 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 422 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 411 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 - A cold front will produce east wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph thru gaps of the central mountain chain tonight from the ABQ east side to Abo Pass and Carrizozo. Overnight lows will be much cooler in the wake of this front Sunday morning. - West winds will strengthen along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and nearby high plains of eastern New Mexico Tuesday. Localized wind gusts around 45 mph are possible from Raton to Las Vegas, Clines Corners, and Vaughn. Temperatures may also warm to near record highs around Roswell Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1209 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 Cold air advection in the wake of a backdoor cold front today will bring much cooler temps to central and eastern NM tonight. Min temps will fall below freezing for all of eastern NM (except Roswell). The front will also push west thru the central mt chain and increase the chance for moderate gap winds below canyons in the RGV late tonight. The latest NBM and HREF 50th to 75th percentile wind gusts average 35 to 40 mph from the east side of ABQ southward to Abo Pass and Carrizozo overnight (peak winds between midnight and 5am). Colder high temps will continue into Sunday with readings actually 10 to 15F below normal over eastern NM. Min temps Sunday night will be below freezing for the entire region with even stronger inversions for valley locales. Monday will feature a warming trend for eastern NM with a surface lee trough deepening over southeast CO. Max temps will be within +- 5F of normal for the entire region. South to southwest winds in the 15 to 25mph range area expected over eastern NM with the lee trough. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1209 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 Changes begin Monday night as a mid level shortwave trough moving southeast from the central Rockies deepens over the Front Range. A surface low will deepen to near 1005mb over northeast NM and help to strengthen the surface pressure gradient across the central mt chain. West to northwest wind gusts near 45 mph are possible along the east slopes from near Raton to Las Vegas, Clines Corners, and Vaughn Tuesday. Downslope flow will also help to warm high temps to near record highs around Roswell. A weak backdoor cold front may slip into far northeast NM late Tuesday with cooler temps possible for Clayton. Flow aloft is expected to become more zonal Wednesday and Thursday as the upper ridge west of NM flattens southward into northern MX. Above normal temps will continue for the entire area with periodic breezy winds along the central mt chain and nearby highlands. Winds will strengthen moreso Friday with stronger southwest flow aloft ahead of the next potential storm system for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 411 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. VFR cigs in the form of high clouds will diminish through the evening hours. A backdoor cold front is moving southwest across eastern NM and will result in an east canyon/gap wind at KABQ and KSAF this evening and overnight. Gusts are forecast to reach up to between 25-30kts at KABQ, remaining below Airport Weather Warning criteria. Otherwise, winds will generally be light. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1209 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025 Northwest flow aloft will continue over NM thru next Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds across southwest AZ. A couple weak shortwave troughs will move off the Front Range with periodic gusty winds along the central mt chain and eastern plains. The strongest winds are expected Tuesday on the east slopes with gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range. Otherwise, tranquil and dry weather will continue with widespread poor to localized fair ventilation. The upper level ridge will flatten by mid to late next week and allow a stronger lee trough to develop over eastern NM. West to southwest wind gusts will strengthen Thursday and especially Friday with improving ventilation expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 31 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 19 60 21 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 27 57 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 25 63 24 66 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 30 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 26 63 25 68 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 30 66 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 34 59 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 32 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 32 73 29 73 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 37 75 32 75 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 24 55 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 32 54 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 26 51 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 52 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 19 50 20 56 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 11 50 15 58 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 22 55 21 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 22 52 25 64 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 29 60 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 31 54 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 29 55 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 39 60 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 36 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 34 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 36 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 31 63 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 34 62 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 30 63 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 34 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 32 63 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 36 58 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 35 61 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 37 66 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 53 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 32 56 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 27 55 25 62 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 22 55 21 63 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 25 49 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 30 56 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 30 57 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 39 62 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 31 53 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 20 45 21 61 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 20 49 20 63 / 5 0 0 0 Springer........................ 21 51 19 63 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 24 48 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 28 51 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 24 48 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 29 54 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 30 51 25 66 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 28 54 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 30 55 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 30 57 28 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 31 55 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 36 60 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 32 56 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 28 55 26 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...11