Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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207 FXUS65 KABQ 052327 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 427 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 420 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Near record to record high temperatures are expected in many areas through the end of the week. - Warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions will create elevated to critical fire weather concerns for portions of NM through the entire week, particularly through this afternoon and Friday afternoon over eastern New Mexico. - Colder, more February like, temperatures return to far northeast NM Saturday and all of eastern NM Sunday behind a potent backdoor front continuing into next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 Near record to record warmth continues across the state through the rest of the week, where high temperatures will continue to be 15 to 20 degrees above average. Winds across eastern NM will quickly taper off by sunset tonight. Slightly cooler temperatures and lighter winds on Thursday before winds pick back up on Friday. Dry conditions and gusty winds will help promote rapid growth and spread of any fire that develops in eastern NM Friday afternoon. Cooler and wetter weather is favored to begin this weekend as a backdoor cold front pushes into northeast NM Saturday, covering all of eastern NM by Sunday. Colder temperatures are likely to remain next week, and low chances exist for snow in the northern mountains and adjacent highlands Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 Very dry air for early February is sliding over NM today in the base of a fast-moving upper level shortwave. The 12Z NAEFS precipitable water (PW) today is progged near -2 standard deviations (stdev) below climo which translates to surface dewpoints in the low single digits above and below zero. 700-500mb layer winds on the 12Z RAOBs were roughly 40-65KT over the southwest CONUS which along with deep mixing and favorable profiles for mt waves have led to strong west winds over northeast NM. Areas from near Raton to Clayton have seen peak winds between 50 and 60 mph early this afternoon. The 12Z HREF ensemble max wind gust was more in line with these types of wind speeds so the Wind Advisory was expanded earlier today. Critical fire weather conditions are also being observed as expected in the area of strongest winds and lowest humidity. Winds will taper off slowly after sunset as the boundary layer decouples thru the evening and the surface pressure gradient relaxes over northeast NM. The exception will be east-facing slopes of the central mt chain where profiles remain favorable for localized mt wave crashing. Wind gusts are still likely to decrease relative to this afternoon with NBM90th percentile gusts < 35mph. Min temps will trend a tad cooler than last night with slightly stronger inversions across the north and west where winds decrease and very dry air remains in place. There is high likelihood for lighter winds on Thursday compared to today with 700-500mb winds relaxing over NM in the wake of the departing upper level shortwave. It will remain very dry with PWs remaining near -2 stdev below climo. The 12Z HREF showed the most likely (50th percentile) min RH values falling below 10% again on Thursday for nearly all areas below 7,000 ft. Fortunately, surface winds will trend lighter but there is still a marginal risk for any fire starts to spread quickly. Max temps will trend a few degrees cooler but still average 10 to 20F above normal for early February. Thursday night is expected to be similar to tonight but with mt waves amplifying along the Sangre de Cristo Mts as another shortwave trough passes north of NM. The 12Z HREF and NBM winds trend stronger along east-facing slopes where peak gusts exceed 50mph at times before sunrise Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 Another windy day is in store for eastern NM Friday as 700mb winds are forecast to be in excess of 50kts through much of the afternoon. With dry air remaining in the state and little vertical directional shear, this produces favorable conditions for these mid-level winds to mix down to the surface. The central and northeast highlands, extending up to Raton, have high chances of breezy to windy conditions through much of the afternoon on Friday. The addition of teens and single digit RH values introduces critical fire weather conditions in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and the east slopes Friday afternoon. Elsewhere, elevated fire weather conditions are likely to be present across eastern and west central NM. The 700mb winds are forecast to increase in strength moving into Friday night, with about a 60% chance to reach 60kts across the northern mountains. Conditions would be favorable for mountain waves to crash on the east side of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, which would bring 50-60kt gusts to the surface. Temperatures across the state on Friday are forecast to be 15-20F above average, with several daily high temperatures likely to be in jeopardy. A wetter and cooler pattern is favored to begin this weekend. A backdoor cold front, developed by a trough that aided Friday`s winds, is likely to surge into northeast NM Saturday, cooling off the area by 5-10F. The front would then push up against the central mountain chain, allowing for the rest of eastern NM to experience widespread cooling. Precipitation chances trend up as this boundary looks to stall across the central mountain chain and upslope flow becomes prominent. The grand ensemble places western CONUS in a broad troughing pattern through the first half of next week, and a pattern like that is prone to have multiple shortwaves traversing through it. Shortwaves that do interact with the stalled boundary would be able to produce snow showers across the mountains and higher terrain and rain in the valleys and lower elevations. Confidence in a wetter and cooler period is high for next week, but location and amount of precipitation remains low. With this forecast package, precipitation is most favored for Monday and late Tuesday mainly across the northern mountains, but changes can be expected as this complex system comes further into view. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 420 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 VFR conditions and clear skies will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty southwest to west winds will continue in most areas through around 02Z, then drop off to a light breeze for the overnight period. The exception will be the high terrain of the Sangre de Cristo mountains where gusty winds will hold on through the night, resulting in LLWS at sites such as KAXX and KRTN. Winds aloft will weaken overnight further south so confidence in LLWS at KLVS is lower. Southwest winds begin to increase again after 18Z tomorrow, although it won`t be as gusty as today was. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 PM MST Wed Feb 5 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are being observed over a large area of northeast NM this afternoon. Humidity will recover slowly tonight with very dry air to remain in place over the region. The winds aloft will trend lighter Thursday relative to today but it will still be very dry and a tad breezy along the central mt chain and far western NM. Several hours of marginally critical fire weather are expected again. Min RH falls below 10% for most areas below 7,000 ft with peak 20-ft winds in the 15-25 mph range. The latest SPC fire weather outlook also shows a large marginal area over NM. Humidity recoveries will trend even lower Thursday night with strengthening mountain waves along the Sangre de Cristo Mts. These stronger winds spread to much of eastern NM Friday with very high likelihood for another day of min RH < 10%. The chance for a Fire Weather Watch is increasing for at least some of our area however predictability is still too low based on max wind speed confidence. Moisture is still expected to begin improving Saturday as mid and high level clouds spread east/northeast off the eastern Pacific. West winds will likely remain elevated Saturday so there is still at least some potential for marginal to critical fire weather for parts of the area. At this time, winds are expected to be lighter than on Friday but may trend stronger given the upper level pattern and surface pressure gradient over the region. A more noticeable pattern change is advertised by Sunday as extended ensemble forecasts show more pronounced troughing developing over the western CONUS thru early next week. The end result is more favorable for cooler temps, higher RH, breezy winds, and increasing chances for valley showers and mt snow early next week. A backdoor cold front may also shift west into much of eastern NM Sunday and Monday with chilly northeast winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 27 64 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 25 61 20 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 24 61 24 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 16 64 17 65 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 29 62 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 18 67 18 67 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 26 66 26 67 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 36 68 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 30 65 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 17 69 17 69 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 19 72 20 72 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 26 54 23 53 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 37 59 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 28 59 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 31 55 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 28 53 28 46 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 24 53 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 23 58 22 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 29 63 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 25 66 24 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 32 59 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 26 63 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 40 65 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 35 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 29 69 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 31 66 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 27 70 25 71 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 29 68 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 26 69 25 70 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 28 68 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 24 68 24 70 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 36 64 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 32 67 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 33 73 32 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 40 61 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 36 64 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 36 66 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 19 67 19 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 32 63 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 35 65 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 32 65 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 39 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 64 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 34 62 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 28 66 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 26 69 25 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 32 64 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 34 65 31 71 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 32 68 32 71 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 33 75 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 33 73 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 33 75 34 76 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 37 75 37 76 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 37 77 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 31 75 33 78 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 36 79 36 81 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 35 78 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 42 77 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-123-125- 126. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...16