510
FXUS65 KABQ 182324 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
524 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Drier and warm Thursday ahead of the next storm system with some
breezy southwest winds across the western and northeast highlands.
Shower and storm chances return along and east of the central
mountain chain Friday and Saturday as the system moves through the
far northern parts of the forecast area. A few storms could become
strong to severe. Western and central areas will generally be dry
and breezy with cooler temperatures Saturday behind the cold front.
Dry and mild areawide Sunday and Monday behind the storm. Low
forecast confidence for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Splendid weather conditions today have provided a welcome break from
the active pattern of late. A large dry intrusion sliding over the
region today is allowing humidity levels to fall to between 20 and
30% with slight southwest breezes and seasonably mild temperatures
over most of the area. Tonight will be similar to last night under
clear skies and decreasing winds. There is a non-zero probability
for a patch of low stratus to develop over the far southeast plains
late tonight but confidence is also very low.

Thursday will feature slightly stronger southwest winds as a 565dm
H5 low center approaches from SoCal. A batch of cirrus is expected
to slide north over the region with little impact other than a brief
period of filtered sunshine. Temps will trend a few degrees warmer
with southwest breezes in the 20 to 30 mph range. Humidity will
trend even lower with many areas in the 10 to 20% by midday. Just
enough moisture will return to southeast NM to allow a few high-
based showers to develop with gusty winds around the Caprock.

Thursday night will be similar to tonight but with slightly warmer
temps, increasing cirrus, and deeper moisture advecting into the
eastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A 569 dam upper low will be over the southern CA during the day
Friday and just south of Las Vegas, NV Friday evening along with a
592 dam upper high centered over the TX Big Bend. Increasing upper
level divergence aloft ahead of the upper low combined with higher
surface and mid level moisture along and east of the central
mountain chain due to return flow on the western flank of the upper
high will result in the development of scattered showers and storms
across the central mountain chain moving northeast across the
eastern plains later in the afternoon and evening. Instability does
not look that impressive on Friday with some MLCAPE values around
750 J/kg across the northeast plains, according to the NAM. However
with effective bulk shear values of 40 to 50 kts, storms will be
capable of becoming strong to severe. Training cells Friday
afternoon will result in a concern for flash flooding on the HPCC
burn scar, but it looks like the heavier QPF sets up just east
across the northeast highlands. Meanwhile, areas along and west of
the central mountain chain will remain dry with breezy south and
southwest winds across the middle and lower RGV and western
highlands. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal
averages. As the upper low moves northeast towards the Four
Corners Friday night into Saturday morning, positive CVA and
upper level divergence will help keep a chance for showers and
storms across the northeast part of the state overnight.

The upper low moves across the NM/CO border during the day Saturday.
Some showers will be possible under the upper low due to some mid
level moisture in the circulation, but much drier air will be
surging north and east along the southern part of the upper low
and behind the Pacific cold front. Temperatures cool by 5 to 10
degrees across western and central NM on Saturday behind the
Pacific front with dry conditions and gusty west winds. The front
along with positive CVA ahead of the upper low circulation will
result in the development of more showers and storms across
northeast and parts of east central NM midday Saturday with fast
storm motion to the northeast. Showers and storms across northeast
NM will be more capable of becoming strong to severe on Saturday
due to high surface moisture, MLCAPE values as high as 2500 J/kg,
and effective bulk shear values of 50 to 60 kts. Storms should
exit north and east of NM during the mid evening hours.

Drier air behind the system will allow temperature to efficiently
cool for most Saturday night Sunday morning with mountain valley
locations likely getting below freezing, mid 30s to near 40 across
northern and western valley locations, 40s to near 50 in the middle
and lower RGV and 50s to near 60 across eastern NM. Can`t rule out a
few stray showers across far northeast NM as the upper low moves
through. Sunday will be dry with slightly below average temperatures
areawide with a backdoor front through all of eastern NM. A light to
moderate east canyon wind could be possible in the ABQ Metro Sunday
evening as the backdoor front tries to seep through the central
mountain chain. Forecast uncertainty increases next week due to
deterministic and ensemble guidance differing and flip flopping on
the evolution of the next upper level trough diving south across the
Rockies and Great Plains with a upper high over the Pacific coast.
Return flow across eastern NM will bring back some modest moisture
across that part of the state resulting in a chance for a shower or
storm, but the upper level pattern could turn into either an Omega
Block (ECMWF) or a Rex Block (GFS) over the western US and southern
Rockies mid next week. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR prevails through the TAF period. Prevailing southwesterly
winds taper off this evening, returning at lesser speeds Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

There are no widespread critical fire weather conditions expected
for the next 7 days. A strong storm system approaching from the west
will spread breezy south to southwest winds across the region thru
Friday. Western NM will see driest conditions with min RH falling to
between 10 and 15% each afternoon. Eastern NM will be on the wetter
side of the storm with increasing storm chances Friday and Saturday.
Some of this activity may become strong to severe. Stronger west
winds will spread over the rest of the area Saturday with cooler
temps. A backdoor cold front entering eastern NM Sunday will keep
temps cool across the east with breezy northerly winds. Forecast
confidence into next week decreases considerably as model guidance
is struggling with the weather pattern across the western U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  81  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  37  78  38  80 /   0   0   5  10
Cuba............................  43  78  45  80 /   0   0   5  10
Gallup..........................  38  82  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  45  79  46  80 /   0   0   5   5
Grants..........................  40  83  41  84 /   0   0   5   5
Quemado.........................  43  80  44  80 /   0   0   5   5
Magdalena.......................  51  82  53  83 /   0   0   5   5
Datil...........................  43  80  45  80 /   0   0   5   5
Reserve.........................  42  83  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  53  85  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  36  71  38  73 /   0   0   5  10
Los Alamos......................  51  77  53  79 /   0   0   5  20
Pecos...........................  45  79  46  78 /   0   0   5  40
Cerro/Questa....................  41  74  42  76 /   0   0   5  20
Red River.......................  37  65  38  67 /   0   0   5  20
Angel Fire......................  30  71  32  72 /   0   0   5  30
Taos............................  37  77  39  79 /   0   0   5  20
Mora............................  44  78  44  77 /   0   0   5  40
Espanola........................  47  84  49  86 /   0   0   5  20
Santa Fe........................  48  79  50  80 /   0   0   5  30
Santa Fe Airport................  48  83  50  84 /   0   0   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  85  60  86 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  87  59  88 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  88  55  90 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  87  53  88 /   0   0   5  10
Belen...........................  50  89  51  91 /   0   0   5  10
Bernalillo......................  50  88  53  89 /   0   0   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  49  88  51  90 /   0   0   5  10
Corrales........................  48  88  50  89 /   0   0   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  49  88  50  90 /   0   0   5  10
Placitas........................  53  85  56  86 /   0   0   5  20
Rio Rancho......................  50  87  52  88 /   0   0   5  10
Socorro.........................  58  91  59  91 /   0   0   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  79  55  80 /   0   0   5  20
Tijeras.........................  51  82  53  84 /   0   0   5  20
Edgewood........................  50  83  52  83 /   0   0   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  85  46  84 /   0   0   5  30
Clines Corners..................  47  81  49  79 /   0   0   5  40
Mountainair.....................  51  83  53  82 /   0   0   5  20
Gran Quivira....................  49  84  50  82 /   0   0   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  57  88  59  84 /   0   5   0  20
Ruidoso.........................  51  82  53  77 /   0   5   0  30
Capulin.........................  47  79  48  80 /   0   0   0  30
Raton...........................  43  82  44  83 /   0   0   5  30
Springer........................  44  85  45  85 /   0   0   5  30
Las Vegas.......................  49  82  49  79 /   0   0   5  40
Clayton.........................  57  86  58  86 /   0   0   0  20
Roy.............................  52  83  54  80 /   0   0   5  40
Conchas.........................  57  91  58  87 /   0   0   5  40
Santa Rosa......................  58  87  59  84 /   0   0   0  40
Tucumcari.......................  58  92  59  89 /   0   5   0  20
Clovis..........................  63  94  64  91 /   0  10   0  10
Portales........................  62  94  63  93 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Sumner.....................  57  91  60  88 /   0   5   0  30
Roswell.........................  67  97  68  94 /   0   5   0  10
Picacho.........................  57  90  59  88 /   0   5   0  20
Elk.............................  54  89  56  86 /   0   5   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...24