249
FXUS65 KABQ 212320 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 516 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will focus
  across the higher terrain of northern and western NM today then
  mainly over the far northern and western high terrain Friday.

- Moderate heat risk will impact most lower elevation locations
  with major heat risk possible in the Four Corners region through
  Friday.

- A pattern change toward wetter and cooler conditions is becoming
  more likely for northern NM Saturday through Monday, expanding
  to the entire forecast area Tuesday into mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

A 597 dam 500 mb upper high centered near the Four Corners area is
continuing to wrap in drier mid level air across eastern and
southern NM today. This drier air along with a weakness rotating
clockwise around the high center will keep isolated to scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity limited to the northern and western
mountains this afternoon. A general storm motion to the west-
southwest will allow some of this activity to make into parts of the
nearby highlands and middle RGV later this afternoon through mid
this evening. Any wetting rainfall will remain confined to the peaks
of the northern and western mountains, with this shower and storm
activity basically resulting in some gusty and erratic winds across
lower elevations of western and central NM. With the upper high over
the Four Corners area, hot temperatures will exist across lower
elevations this afternoon with the hottest temperatures in the mid
to upper 90s across western and central NM closer to the upper high
centroid. As a result, a moderate risk for heat related illnesses
will exist across the lower elevations of western and central NM
with localized areas of a major risk for heat related illnesses
across the northwest plateau, including Farmington, due to high
temperatures near 100. Shower and storm activity this afternoon and
evening will quickly taper off shortly after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating.

The drier mid level air makes more progress into central and western
NM on Friday. This will limit isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity to areas along the AZ/NM border west of the Continental
Divide and the Jemez and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A shortwave
rotating around the 596 dam upper high centered over the UT/AZ
border will result in a greater coverage of shower and thunderstorm
coverage across the CO Rockies Friday afternoon. Some of this
activity will spill over into the southern San Juan and Tusas
Mountains and nearby highlands, including Chama and Dulce, Friday
evening. High temperatures Friday afternoon will be similar to this
afternoon. Any shower and thunderstorm activity across far western
and northern NM Friday evening will taper off before midnight with
lingering mid-level clouds across this part of the state
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The 500 mb upper high over Utah Saturday continues to slowly weaken
and flatten throughout the weekend as its centroid meanders
southeast to the AZ/NM border by Sunday evening. This weakening and
flattening of the upper high is in response to the unseasonably
strong upper low digging south over the Great Lakes with broad
troughing across the eastern 2/3rds of the Continental U.S.
Shortwaves and associated backdoor fronts among the northwest flow
between the upper high and the broad troughing will help to increase
the coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity for areas along and
north of I-40. Additionally, the weakening of the upper high and
higher mid level moisture in place will help to also increase shower
and thunderstorm coverage across the west central and south central
mountains and nearby highlands. Drier mid level air south of I-40
and east of I-25 will help result in little to no shower and
thunderstorm activity. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and
right around average for late August across western and northern NM
due to the higher shower and thunderstorm coverage.

Heading into the next work week, extended ensemble guidance depicts
a further weakening and stretching of the upper high across New
Mexico and Texas due to a reinforcing shortwave on the backside of
the broad longwave troughing over the eastern 2/3rds of the U.S
along with a weak upper low approaching the CA coast. This shortwave
will send a much stronger backdoor front through northeast NM Monday
afternoon, before pushing through all of eastern NM Monday evening
into Tuesday morning. In terms of sensible weather changes, this
will result in shower and thunderstorm activity across mainly
northern and western NM Monday expanding to most of the forecast
area on Tuesday as Wednesday due to higher available moisture behind
the backdoor front and weak southerly flow ahead of the baggy upper
low just west off the CA coastline. PWATS will be around 1 to 1.3
inches areawide which is around the 90th percentile to max for late
August. This above average to near record moisture along with
multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorms will result in higher
rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches across north central and northeast
NM early next week. The backdoor front and lowering heights will
also allow temperatures to cool down to below average across
northern NM Monday and areawide by Tuesday and Wednesday. Some
locations across far northeast NM could probably not make it out of
the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with the NBM showing a 30 to
50% chance of high temperatures below 70 degrees! These lower
temperatures will play a role in available instability and thus
heavier rainfall rates and resultant flash flooding risk, but the
repeated rounds could counteract this effect.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
potential short-lived MVFR conditions in scattered storms through
01-02Z across central and western NM. A gusty east canyon wind
will prevail at KABQ through around 02Z before trending down.
Another round of showers and storms is forecast Friday
afternoon/evening, but will be lower in coverage with impacts most
likely at KSAF among our TAF sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Hot and above average temperatures across lower elevations through
tomorrow due to an upper high over the Four Corners area. Clockwise
flow around the upper high circulation will help direct isolated to
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across the higher terrain
west-southwest into nearby lower elevations of western and northern
NM during this afternoon and early evening. Any wetting rainfall
will be limited to the mountain peaks with gusty and erratic winds
the main hazard for nearby lower elevations. Even less shower and
thunderstorm activity expected Friday afternoon and evening with
chances limited to the far western and northern mountains. The upper
high over Utah Saturday weakens and shifts southeast towards the
Arizona and New Mexico border late Sunday due to an unseasonably
trough across the eastern 2/3rds of the Continental U.S. This will
result in a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms along and
north of I-40 and west of I-25 this weekend and Monday. SHower and
storm coverage eventually expands to the rest of the forecast area
by next Tuesday and Wednesday due to higher moisture behind a strong
backdoor front and traditional monsoon flow ahead of a weak upper
low off the coast of California. Locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding risk will increase with the highest risk across northern NM
where several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will result in
generalized rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches this weekend through
mid next week. Temperatures will also cool down to below normal
readings early to mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  98  66  94 /  20  10  20  30
Dulce...........................  52  93  52  90 /  20  50  40  80
Cuba............................  58  90  58  87 /  20  20  30  60
Gallup..........................  58  94  57  90 /  10  20  30  50
El Morro........................  58  89  57  85 /  30  20  30  70
Grants..........................  58  93  58  90 /  20  20  20  60
Quemado.........................  58  89  58  86 /  30  20  20  60
Magdalena.......................  62  88  62  87 /  20   5   0  20
Datil...........................  56  86  57  84 /  20  10   5  40
Reserve.........................  56  91  57  92 /  30  30  10  50
Glenwood........................  60  93  61  94 /  30  30   5  30
Chama...........................  51  86  50  82 /  20  50  50  90
Los Alamos......................  61  88  62  84 /  10  20  30  70
Pecos...........................  55  85  56  82 /  10  10  10  50
Cerro/Questa....................  54  87  54  81 /   5  30  40  90
Red River.......................  46  78  47  70 /   5  20  30  90
Angel Fire......................  39  80  41  74 /   5  20  20  80
Taos............................  54  89  55  84 /   5  20  30  80
Mora............................  50  82  51  77 /   5  10  10  70
Espanola........................  60  95  61  92 /  10  20  20  60
Santa Fe........................  60  87  61  85 /  10  10  20  50
Santa Fe Airport................  59  91  60  89 /  10  10  10  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  93  70  92 /  20   5  10  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  95  68  94 /  20   5   5  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  97  68  96 /  20   5   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  95  68  94 /  20   5  10  20
Belen...........................  65  95  64  95 /  20   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  65  96  66  95 /  20  10  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  64  95  64  95 /  20   5   0  10
Corrales........................  65  97  67  95 /  20   5  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  64  95  64  95 /  20   0   0  10
Placitas........................  64  92  66  90 /  20  10  10  30
Rio Rancho......................  66  95  67  95 /  20   5  10  20
Socorro.........................  67  96  67  95 /  20   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  88  61  86 /  20   5   5  30
Tijeras.........................  62  89  63  87 /  20   5   5  30
Edgewood........................  57  90  58  88 /  20   5   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  90  54  89 /  10   5   0  20
Clines Corners..................  57  84  58  82 /  10   5   0  20
Mountainair.....................  59  88  59  87 /  20   5   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  58  86  58  85 /  10   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  63  88  62  87 /   5   5   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  56  79  56  79 /   0   5   0   5
Capulin.........................  54  85  54  77 /   0   5  10  50
Raton...........................  53  88  54  80 /   0  10  10  70
Springer........................  53  89  55  84 /   5   5   5  50
Las Vegas.......................  53  85  54  81 /   5  10   5  50
Clayton.........................  60  90  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
Roy.............................  58  86  58  83 /   5   5   0  20
Conchas.........................  64  93  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  62  90  61  87 /   5   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  61  92  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  63  91  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  63  92  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65  91  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  67  95  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  61  88  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  57  85  57  85 /   0   5   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11