252
FXUS65 KABQ 070810
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
210 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 154 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
  the week. A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on
  area burn scars each day. A low risk of severe storms exists on
  Friday across northeast NM.

- Hotter temperatures Wednesday through the weekend will result
  in a moderate heat risk across lower elevation locations,
  especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate
  cooling or hydration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A 594dm H5 high center will consolidate near the Four Corners today
with a theta-e ridge axis and near-normal PWAT airmass draped from
south/southwest to north/northeast across NM. Strong heating in a
moist, unstable airmass with weak steering flow will help storms to
develop over the high terrain by late morning. Storms will then move
erratically south and west into nearby highlands and valleys on
strong convective outflows thru the early evening. DCAPE is still
averaging 500-1000 J/kg with the relatively dry low level airmass
so boundaries may produce gusts >40 mph. Small footprints with
rainfall amounts >1" are possible based on 6-hr high-res ensemble
LPMM precip and NBM 90th percentile QPF.

The Four Corners high will elongate westward while building to
near 596dm off the SoCal coast Wednesday. The higher PWAT airmass
and theta-e ridge axis will stretch from southwest to northeast
across central NM. There are high chances for storms to form over
the high terrain by late morning but steering flow will instead
guide storms erratically south and east into nearby highlands and
valleys, including more of northeast and east-central NM. QPF
values may exceed 1" from stronger cells along with gusty outflow
boundaries.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 154 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

By Thursday and Friday, drier mid and upper level flow will spread
across the northwest half of NM while a weak shortwave trough and
associated 40-50kt speed max moves thru CO. A downtick in storm
coverage is likely, except across the southern high terrain and
northeast plains. The storms in northeast NM may become organized
Thursday and Friday with support from the speed max focused over
southern CO. Max temps will be hotter with most lower elevations
in the mid 90s to low 100s. Heat Advisories may be needed. There
is a >75% chance of reaching 100F in the middle RGV and eastern
plains of NM, except Roswell where there is a 20-40% of reaching
105F.

Beginning Saturday, an anomalously high amplitude wave pattern
will begin developing across North America. A 100-120kt speed max
over the Aleutians will round a 599dm H5 high over the north
Pacific and help to carve out a high amplitude trough off the west
coast. This trough will kick the H5 high from the southwest CONUS
into the Great Plains Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, a large area
of enhanced tropical convection over the eastern equatorial
Pacific will assist building the Great Plains high into a massive
+3 standard deviation H5 ridge (~598dm) over the central U.S.
thru the middle of next week. This pattern may help to open the
door to abundant moisture across the southern Rockies next week.
There is still a great deal of uncertainty with how this complex
pattern will evolve. However, chances are trending higher for
storms with locally heavy rainfall next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Remnant sprinkles and mid level clouds late this evening will give
to way gradual clearing thru sunrise Tuesday. SHRA/TS will develop
over the high terrain btwn 11am and 1pm then move slowly south and
west into nearby highlands and valleys thru the late afternoon and
evening. Direct hits will be capable of strong outflow wind gusts,
brief moderate to heavy rain, patchy BLDU, and lightning strikes.
Areas with the higher chances Tuesday will focus btwn the Cont Dvd
and the central mt chain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

There are no widespread areas of critical fire weather expected for
at least the next 7 days. Storms with small footprints of heavy
rain will occur today and Wednesday around the high terrain and
nearby highlands of central NM. Storm motion today will be slow
and erratic to the south and west then slow and erratic to the
south and east Wednesday. Storms across western NM will be drier
with strong outflow winds and little rainfall. Much drier and
hotter weather will spread to more of NM Thursday and Friday,
except northeast NM where storms are still expected. Slightly
breezy northwest winds over northwest NM each day may produce a
few hours with marginally critical fire weather. Moisture may
surge back into central and eastern NM Saturday with increasing
coverage of storms with wetting rainfall along and east of the
central mountain chain. Storm chances are trending higher for next
week as even deeper moisture attempts to spread northwest into
more of NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  97  65  98  63 /   0   5   0   5
Dulce...........................  92  50  94  49 /  20  20  10   5
Cuba............................  91  57  92  58 /  20  30   5  20
Gallup..........................  92  56  93  57 /  20  10  20   5
El Morro........................  86  57  87  57 /  40  10  40   5
Grants..........................  90  56  92  57 /  40  10  40   5
Quemado.........................  88  59  89  59 /  50  20  30  30
Magdalena.......................  87  64  89  64 /  30  30  40  10
Datil...........................  85  59  86  60 /  60  20  60  10
Reserve.........................  92  54  94  54 /  60  30  40  20
Glenwood........................  96  58  98  58 /  60  20  50  10
Chama...........................  84  48  86  48 /  40  10  20   0
Los Alamos......................  85  62  87  63 /  40  30  40  20
Pecos...........................  88  55  91  56 /  40  20  50  10
Cerro/Questa....................  85  55  87  55 /  40  30  20  10
Red River.......................  75  47  77  48 /  50  40  40  10
Angel Fire......................  81  43  82  42 /  60  30  60  20
Taos............................  88  53  89  52 /  30  20  20  10
Mora............................  83  53  86  54 /  50  30  50  10
Espanola........................  94  60  96  61 /  30  20  10  10
Santa Fe........................  88  61  90  62 /  30  20  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  91  58  93  59 /  20  20  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  66  98  66 /  20  30  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  65  97  66 /  10  30  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  97  63  99  65 /  10  30   5  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  97  66  98  67 /  10  30  10  20
Belen...........................  98  63  99  64 /   5  30   5  10
Bernalillo......................  97  65  99  66 /  10  30  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  96  61  98  62 /  10  20   5  10
Corrales........................  97  65  99  66 /  10  30  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  96  62  98  64 /  10  20   5  10
Placitas........................  92  66  94  67 /  20  30  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  96  66  98  67 /  10  20  10  20
Socorro.........................  99  70 101  71 /   5  20  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  88  61  91  62 /  30  30  20  20
Tijeras.........................  90  61  92  62 /  30  30  10  20
Edgewood........................  89  58  92  59 /  30  30  20  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  54  94  54 /  30  30  10  30
Clines Corners..................  86  57  89  57 /  30  30  20  30
Mountainair.....................  90  59  92  60 /  20  30  10  20
Gran Quivira....................  88  60  90  61 /  10  30  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  91  65  93  67 /  20   5   5  20
Ruidoso.........................  85  59  86  61 /  20   5  30  20
Capulin.........................  86  56  88  54 /  20  10  40  20
Raton...........................  91  53  93  53 /  20  20  40  20
Springer........................  92  55  93  55 /  20  20  30   5
Las Vegas.......................  87  56  89  56 /  40  20  40  10
Clayton.........................  94  64  97  63 /   0  10  20  20
Roy.............................  89  61  92  60 /   5  10  40  10
Conchas.........................  97  66 100  66 /   0  10  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  93  64  96  64 /   0  10  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  98  69  99  69 /   0   0  10  20
Clovis..........................  94  67  96  68 /   0   5   0   0
Portales........................  97  68  98  69 /   0   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  96  68  98  68 /   0   0   5  10
Roswell.........................  98  70 100  71 /   0   0   0  10
Picacho.........................  93  64  94  65 /   0   0  10  10
Elk.............................  88  60  90  62 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42