948
FXUS65 KABQ 221559 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
859 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 856 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

 - High temperatures well above 30-year averages Friday and
   Saturday.

 - Breezy to windy conditions in many locations Sunday, and
   especially Wednesday when temperatures will fall areawide.

 - Increasing precipitation chances over northern and western
   areas late Monday through Thursday. The northern mountains may
   accumulate a few to several inches of snow.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

High temperatures continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above average
across the state with light winds and mostly clear skies. Winds will
pick up slightly on Saturday, then become breezy to windy across
east central and west central NM on Sunday. Temperatures will
sharply drop on Monday in the east as a backdoor cold front moves
through the region. A series of disturbances will bring rain and
mountain snow to northern and western NM late Monday through
Thanksgiving. The higher terrain, especially the Tusas Mountains,
may see several inches of snow by late next week. Colder
temperatures are possible after Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

The 00Z ABQ sounding boasted only a 0.06" PWAT, so it is quite dry
out there and many areas across western NM should see relative
humidity values drop into the single digits this afternoon.
Remaining cirrus clouds should also diminish after a weak
perturbation in the flow aloft passes by this morning. Otherwise,
upper level ridging will persist over the region today and tonight,
but will become more zonal on Saturday. The warming trend will
continue through Saturday with temperatures as much as 15 degrees
above normal Saturday afternoon. A deepening lee side surface trough
will allow for a few breezes Saturday as well, especially near and
south of the I-40 corridor from KCQC to the TX border. Overnight,
strong inversions will again be the rule.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

Breezy to windy conditions are in store for Sunday as strengthening
zonal flow aloft settles over NM. Deterministic models have
continued to favor strong (50-55kts) winds at 700mb over the central
mountain chain, with slightly weaker (40-45kts) winds over the
western mountains. Westerly surface winds across the central
highlands will hover around 25-28kts through much of Sunday
afternoon, with gusts currently forecast to peak just under 40kts.
This is just below Wind Advisory criteria, so should further
forecasts bump up wind speeds across Sunday, wind highlights will
likely be warranted. Regardless of a Wind Advisory being issued,
nuisance to perhaps hazardous crosswinds on north-south oriented
roads are likely across east central NM Sunday.

A backdoor cold front will push through eastern NM on Monday,
causing a sharp drop in high temperatures across those eastern areas
(nearly 10-20F from Sunday`s highs). Elsewhere in the state,
temperatures will trend down a few degrees as pressure heights fall
slightly and cloud cover increases. Temperatures will rebound in the
east on Tuesday after the cold front exits the region, and the rest
of the state will see little change in high temperatures.

A Pacific trough will progress inland into northwest CONUS through
the beginning of next week. This trough is already affecting the
state as it is one of the causes of our increased zonal flow. It
will further impact the state by advecting a plume of moisture into
our northern and western areas. While this trough was responsible
for the high-end atmospheric river event along the northern CA
coast, much of that moisture will have exited the system by the time
it reaches NM. Regardless, a consistent stream of moisture, and
multiple disturbances in the zonal flow, will allow for rain and
mountain snow across the northern and western areas beginning late
Monday and continuing until Thanksgiving. A few to several inches of
snow are possible in the higher terrain, especially in the Tusas
Mountains. Elsewhere, rain will be the main form of precipitation as
snow levels look to remain around 8,500ft. Orographic lifting could
also aid in snowfall amounts across our mountainous regions. As this
stream of moisture looks to end on Thanksgiving, increased northwest
flow aloft looks likely across the region, paving the way for
synoptic CAA, a sharp drop in temperatures, and windier conditions through
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 856 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions with light winds are forecast the next 24 hours as
a ridge of high pressure crosses aloft. Thin high cirrus clouds
will increase over western and northern areas tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next seven
days, and rather, the main concern will be poor ventilation. Poor
ventilation rates are expected areawide today under ridging aloft,
and only slight improvements are expected on Saturday. Very dry
conditions will be the rule today and Saturday as well. Poor vent
rates will persist on Sunday across the Rio Grande Valley, but will
improve into the good or very good categories for most other
locations. This is due to westerly flow trending upward on Sunday
with lee side troughing aiding in increased surface winds. Westerly
flow will persist through mid week and Pacific moisture will
gradually trend upward, though chances for precipitation across
northwest NM on Monday have dwindled. Better chances for
precipitation arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday across northern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  18  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  62  14  60  21 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  59  25  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  63  13  65  25 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  63  22  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  65  15  66  25 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  67  23  67  29 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  62  33  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  64  27  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  72  23  69  26 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  74  32  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  56  18  55  22 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  56  35  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  63  33  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  54  28  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  50  14  50  27 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  53   3  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  57  13  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  64  29  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  63  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  58  31  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  59  25  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  35  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  61  32  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  27  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  30  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  61  22  63  27 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  62  30  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  62  22  63  27 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  62  29  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  62  22  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  58  31  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  62  32  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  63  31  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  33  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  59  34  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  60  29  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  64  17  64  25 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  59  30  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  61  30  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  63  31  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  66  37  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  66  39  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  53  28  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  62  23  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  52  19  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  64  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  63  34  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  60  29  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  64  29  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  67  33  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  65  29  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  67  34  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  67  32  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  67  31  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  70  33  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  73  36  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  75  34  74  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...44