Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
795 FXUS65 KABQ 082343 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 543 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - High confidence remains for widespread moderate to major heat risk impacts through this afternoon, which may cause health issues for individuals without adequate cooling and hydration. Some areas will approach record highs. Additional areas of moderate to isolated major heat risk are likely in the Albuquerque Metro area and eastern New Mexico Saturday. - Gusty and erratic winds are likely across western and central New Mexico through Saturday from isolated to widely scattered virga showers and dry thunderstorms. - There is a Marginal Risk of severe weather for northeastern New Mexico today, Saturday, and Sunday, during the afternoon and early evening each day. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 High pressure continues to sit over New Mexico this afternoon, though height levels have decreased slightly (597dm on today`s 18z sounding, compared to 600dm on Wednesday). As such, hot temperatures continue across the forecast area. Today`s Heat Advisories for Roswell and Albuquerque look to remain on track. Highs are likely to remain in the high 90s to low 100s for nearly all lower elevation areas. There is a good chance that ABQ sees a record high temperature today, as 98F is the current calendar day record. Outside of temperatures, high based virga showers and dry thunderstorms remain the main threat across western and central NM this afternoon and evening. Inverted V soundings can be seen on both the 18z ABQ sounding and on model soundings further west. With modest mid-level RH around 50%, this continues to support little to no precipitation with developing showers and storms, but more of a gusty wind and dry lightning threat. The strongest gusts are likely to reach 50mph in some instances. With a shortwave traversing the northern periphery of the high along the CO/NM border, additional lift may be provided to storms in northeast NM this afternoon, where SBCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg and 20kts of 0-6km bulk shear may be enough to spit out a strong to severe storm. Confidence is not very high with this, but the ingredients support the chance, as outlined with the Marginal Risk via the SPC. The high takes its time breaking down and shifting west, so a very similar day is expected for Saturday. An additional Heat Advisory was issued for the ABQ Metro Area as temperatures will still be near 100F, especially in the valley. Temperatures drop a few degrees over eastern NM as the center of the high shifts west, taking them out of consideration for an Advisory (though it will still be toasty). Dry thunderstorms and virga showers will once again be a threat across western and central NM, though a slight bump in mid-level moisture may yield accumulating precipitation across the Gila Region in southwest NM. A stray strong to severe thunderstorm is once again possible over northeast NM. Instability and shear values are likely to be more sufficient for severe storms, but there is still a big question mark as to whether storms can actually develop. As such, a Marginal Risk remains for Saturday with low to moderate confidence in it. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A shift back into a wetter pattern appears likely to begin this upcoming work week. The high pressure gradually shifts westward and sits over CA by Monday, placing NM in a regime of northwest flow. This works to increase moisture and forcing mechanisms throughout the state, as shortwaves and minor disturbances in the flow favor this regime. Sunday could be a more active day given a few factors. On top of the upper-level/synoptic features previously listed, convection from Saturday in eastern CO is likely to enhance a backdoor front pushing into NM, providing additional moisture to the area. Instability and shear also looks to increase considerably, paving the way for higher confidence in strong to severe storms (though not a slam dunk forecast, as this evolution likely depends on how Saturday`s convection plays out). Monday appears to be a similarly active day, this time more focused on potential flooding concerns, especially around burn scars. Diffluence aloft from northwest flow with antecedent moisture appears favorable for a setup of numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Embedded strong to severe storms are possible, though PWAT values forecast to overtop 1" across eastern NM signal the potential for flooding concerns as well. Continuing into the middle part of the week, daily rounds of thunderstorms appear likely, with chances for burn scar flash flooding each day. Ensemble guidance is painting a troughing pattern to our west and a high pressure to our east, signaling the potential return of a more traditional monsoon setup by late week. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 A shift back into a wetter pattern appears likely to begin this upcoming work week. The high pressure gradually shifts westward and sits over CA by Monday, placing NM in a regime of northwest flow. This works to increase moisture and forcing mechanisms throughout the state, as shortwaves and minor disturbances in the flow favor this regime. Sunday could be a more active day given a few factors. On top of the upper-level/synoptic features previously listed, convection from Saturday in eastern CO is likely to enhance a backdoor front pushing into NM, providing additional moisture to the area. Instability and shear also looks to increase considerably, paving the way for higher confidence in strong to severe storms (though not a slam dunk forecast, as this evolution likely depends on how Saturday`s convection plays out). Monday appears to be a similarly active day, this time more focused on potential flooding concerns, especially around burn scars. Diffluence aloft from northwest flow with antecedent moisture appears favorable for a setup of numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Embedded strong to severe storms are possible, though PWAT values forecast to overtop 1" across eastern NM signal the potential for flooding concerns as well. Continuing into the middle part of the week, daily rounds of thunderstorms appear likely, with chances for burn scar flash flooding each day. Ensemble guidance is painting a troughing pattern to our west and a high pressure to our east, signaling the potential return of a more traditional monsoon setup by late week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Virga, sprinkles and a few dry thunderstorms along and west of the Central Mountain Chain will continue to result in gusty and erratic winds to 40kt, locally higher, through 01-02Z. Meanwhile, shower and thunderstorm activity across northeast and east central NM will continue through 03-04Z before diminishing. These storms will be capable of gusty and erratic wind gusts between 40 and 50kt. After storms diminish, the low level jet will increase across eastern NM resulting in LLWS at both KTCC and KROW overnight. The LLJ will weaken by 12Z. On Saturday, another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will develop favoring the high terrain areas south of I-40. Gusty and erratic wind gusts will again be a concern. Additional storms may impact eastern NM late in the afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Near critical fire weather conditions are likely to persist today and, to a lesser extent, tomorrow for northwest NM. Low teen to single digit humidity values along with breezy west winds contribute to this today. Isolated pockets and/or brief periods of critical fire weather conditions are possible, but expected to remain isolated in nature. Thus, continued the thinking of the previous shift of considering but not issuing a Red Flag Warning for Fire Wx Zone 101. Across much of western NM today, virga showers with very little wetting footprints are likely, and dry lightning is a possibility as well given a very dry surface layer. This runs the risk of creating new fire starts. Tomorrow sees similar conditions to today, but on a smaller scale as humidity values rise slightly, winds slow down a touch, and the coverage of dry thunderstorms decreases. Further into Sunday and next week, only pockets of elevated fire weather conditions are possible in western NM given lower humidity. Elsewhere, moisture increases along with precipitation chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 96 62 93 / 10 0 5 0 Dulce........................... 48 91 48 88 / 10 0 5 20 Cuba............................ 57 91 57 89 / 10 5 5 20 Gallup.......................... 54 93 56 91 / 10 10 10 10 El Morro........................ 57 89 56 87 / 10 10 20 30 Grants.......................... 57 93 58 90 / 10 10 20 30 Quemado......................... 59 90 59 88 / 20 30 40 50 Magdalena....................... 66 92 65 89 / 20 30 30 50 Datil........................... 61 88 59 86 / 20 30 30 60 Reserve......................... 57 95 55 93 / 20 50 30 60 Glenwood........................ 64 100 61 98 / 20 50 30 60 Chama........................... 49 85 49 82 / 10 0 5 30 Los Alamos...................... 63 89 62 86 / 10 5 5 40 Pecos........................... 60 89 59 85 / 10 10 10 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 57 87 56 83 / 10 0 5 50 Red River....................... 48 77 47 73 / 10 0 5 60 Angel Fire...................... 41 81 41 76 / 10 5 5 60 Taos............................ 52 90 53 85 / 10 0 5 40 Mora............................ 55 86 54 81 / 10 20 5 50 Espanola........................ 59 97 58 93 / 10 0 5 20 Santa Fe........................ 63 91 62 87 / 10 5 10 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 59 95 59 90 / 10 5 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 71 96 70 94 / 10 10 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 98 67 95 / 10 10 20 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 67 100 66 98 / 10 10 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 67 98 67 96 / 10 10 10 20 Belen........................... 65 100 64 98 / 10 10 20 20 Bernalillo...................... 65 99 66 97 / 10 10 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 63 100 63 97 / 10 10 10 10 Corrales........................ 67 99 67 97 / 10 10 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 65 100 65 97 / 10 10 10 10 Placitas........................ 67 95 66 93 / 10 10 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 67 98 67 96 / 10 10 10 20 Socorro......................... 70 101 69 98 / 20 10 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 91 61 88 / 10 10 10 30 Tijeras......................... 65 93 64 89 / 10 10 20 30 Edgewood........................ 59 93 58 90 / 10 5 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 94 56 90 / 10 10 10 20 Clines Corners.................. 61 88 59 83 / 10 10 10 20 Mountainair..................... 62 91 61 89 / 10 20 20 40 Gran Quivira.................... 63 92 61 88 / 10 20 20 40 Carrizozo....................... 69 95 67 92 / 10 20 30 40 Ruidoso......................... 64 87 61 84 / 5 30 30 50 Capulin......................... 56 85 54 77 / 10 30 30 70 Raton........................... 54 91 53 83 / 10 30 20 70 Springer........................ 55 93 53 86 / 10 20 10 50 Las Vegas....................... 57 89 56 84 / 10 20 10 50 Clayton......................... 65 90 61 83 / 20 20 30 40 Roy............................. 59 89 59 85 / 10 10 20 40 Conchas......................... 67 97 66 93 / 20 10 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 66 96 64 90 / 20 10 20 30 Tucumcari....................... 69 96 66 90 / 20 5 20 20 Clovis.......................... 71 100 69 96 / 20 5 30 20 Portales........................ 72 101 70 98 / 10 10 30 30 Fort Sumner..................... 70 100 69 96 / 20 10 20 20 Roswell......................... 71 104 71 100 / 0 10 10 20 Picacho......................... 67 97 66 93 / 5 20 20 40 Elk............................. 65 94 64 91 / 0 20 10 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219-238. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ219. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...34