165
FXUS65 KABQ 240907
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
307 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 307 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

- The potential for catastrophic flash flooding exists early this
  week, especially today, across recent burn scars. This includes
  the Ruidoso area burn scars and Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn
  scar.

- Urban and arroyo flash flooding, including the Albuquerque and
  Santa Fe Metros is likely across central and eastern NM today
  and tonight.

- Shower and storm coverage gradually lowers late in the week, but
  slow storm motion will keep the risk for flash flooding,
  especially on recent burn scars and saturated soils, in play.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Today is expected to be a high impact day for much of New Mexico as
the 1st surge of monsoon moisture for the season moves squarely
overhead.  Southerly flow west of a sprawling and stout upper level
high over the Central Appalachians and Tennessee and Ohio River
Valley will help set up this plume of monsoon moisture, which
includes some remnant moisture from former Hurricane Erick late last
week. PWATs will be very close to record levels for late June with
values around 1.2 to 1.5 across central NM and around 1.3 to 1.6
across eastern NM with locally up to 1.8 inches across Chaves
County! This high amount of available moisture combined with high
instability as indicated by LI values of -2 to -5 deg C and upper
level divergence ahead of an upper level trough/ low over the Great
Basin will set the stage for widespread shower and thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain late this morning quickly
moving down into surrounding lower elevations during the afternoon
hours. Given all the aformentioned ingredients in place and with
soils saturated from Monday`s storm activity, a extreme to
catastrophic situation is in play across the Ruidoso area of burn
scars and the village itself downstream. The HREF 6 hour mean
(average) for the afternoon and early evening period for today is
depicting 1.5 to 2 inches with a worse case (ensemble max) scenario
of 2.5 to 4 inches! A high risk for flash flooding will also exist
for the HPCC burn scar with 6 hr mean amounts for the same time
period of around 0.5 to 1 inch with a worse case scenario of 1.5 to
2.5 inches. Heading into the evening, a majority of individual hi
res guidance members and the HREF show a corridor of heavy rain with
embedded thunderstorms stretching from areas just west and across
the lower RGV in southern NM up through the middle RGV and central
mountain chain, including ABQ and Santa Fe to the northeast
highlands, including Las Vegas and Raton, which is covered by the
Flash Flood Watch. Added the southwest mountains and San Augustin
plains along with Quay County based on the forecasted rainfall
amounts along with heavy rainfall across Quay County these last 2
days. Mean rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.5 inches are being
depicted from the HREF during this 6 hour evening period which is
on top of the mean 0.25 to 1.25 inches from the prior 6 hour
afternoon period. Ensemble max amounts depict some localized
amounts of up to 3 inches across this aforementioned corridor.
Model guidance then shows the corridor of heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms pivoting slightly east over the Tularosa Basin and
South Central Mountains exiting northeast across the central and
northeast highlands and far western portions of the eastern
plains. This added rainfall will exacerbate the potentially
already life threatening situation across the Ruidoso are burn
scars and HPCC burn scar. Guidance shows the plume of showers and
thunderstorms slowly tapering off across the eastern highlands
around mid Wednesday morning.

A similar synoptic setup is expected on Wednesday with PWATs a
little lower compared to today, 1 to 1.3 inches across central NM
and 1.2 to 1.5 inches across the eastern plains. Now with all the
convective activity expected today through early Wednesday morning,
questions arise on if the atmospheric instability recovers enough
for more shower and storm development Wednesday afternoon. The HREF
does depict enough daytime heating and some clearing late Wednesday
morning across the mountain ranges west of the RGV to allow in
numerous shower and storm development during the early afternoon
before moving east into the RGV during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Despite the widespread cloud cover lingering from
tonight`s expected activity, the HREF also allows numerous showers
and storms to develop across the Sacramento Mountains early
Wednesday afternoon. It does show the initial storm development and
heavier rainfall amounts staying just east of the burn scars moving
further east later in the afternoon, but this bears close watching.
After today`s expected rainfall it will take very little rainfall to
cause even more flash flooding on the burn scars on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Shower and storm coverage looks to lower gradually on Thursday and
Friday as the troughing over the Great Basin dampens and upper level
flow becomes quasizonal. This will allow some drier air to move in
from the north and west. However, above average moisture (PWATs
ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 inches) will remain across southern and
eastern areas, keeping scattered to numerous shower and storm
coverage present. Storm motion will also slow down and become more
erratic keeping the higher risk for flash flooding across these
parts of the state. Upper level ridging look to slowly develop and
strengthen over the desert SW for the weekend, helping to lower
shower and storm coverage even more and keep it mainly confined to
the mountain ranges and nearby highlands. With the lower shower and
storm coverage and cloud cover along with building upper level
heights, temperatures warm back up to around average for the end of
June. A upper level disturbance moves around the ridge diving
southeast into the Great Plains Monday and Tuesday of next week.
This disturbance will shift the high back west towards Arizona and
push a backdoor front through from northeast to southwest,
recharging overall available moisture and increasing shower and
storm coverage as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The development and gradual lowering of VFR cigs is forecast
through Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions in patchy low stratus
across eastern NM and MVFR conditions associated with scattered
showers and storms across central and south central NM. Showers
and storms are forecast to increase in coverage and intensity
Tuesday afternoon, focusing across central NM where short-lived
IFR conditions are possible. Heavy rain and wet runways are likely
across central NM Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Heavy rainfall will be a major concern as a rich plume of monsoon
moisture arrives. Storm coverage and heavy rainfall coverage peaks
today and tomorrow. Several areas will pick up 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall through the period, but localized areas may see in excess of
4 inches. While the rainfall is needed, the fast and furious nature
of this rainfall will likely lead to excessive runoff and flash
flooding, especially over and downstream of burn scars. Though storm
coverage slowly decreases through the end of the week as drier air
tries to move in from the northwest, heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. The lowest storm coverage of the week is expected for the
weekend as an upper high builds overhead. Temperatures heat back up
to around average as a result. Shower and storm coverage increases
early next week as the high shifts west over Arizona and a backdoor
front recharges overall available moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  89  59  88  54 /  20  30  10   0
Dulce...........................  80  48  80  43 /  40  40  30   5
Cuba............................  75  53  79  51 /  60  50  50  10
Gallup..........................  84  49  84  45 /  20  20  10   0
El Morro........................  81  52  81  50 /  50  30  40   5
Grants..........................  81  52  81  49 /  60  30  50  10
Quemado.........................  82  54  82  52 /  50  40  40  20
Magdalena.......................  78  58  76  57 /  90  80  90  40
Datil...........................  79  54  77  53 /  80  60  80  30
Reserve.........................  85  50  87  49 /  40  40  40  20
Glenwood........................  89  55  89  54 /  40  40  50  20
Chama...........................  72  46  74  44 /  50  40  50  10
Los Alamos......................  72  57  76  56 /  80  60  70  20
Pecos...........................  70  54  73  52 /  90  80  80  30
Cerro/Questa....................  72  52  75  49 /  80  50  60  10
Red River.......................  62  45  66  42 /  90  50  70  20
Angel Fire......................  65  43  69  38 /  90  60  70  20
Taos............................  74  52  78  48 /  70  60  60  10
Mora............................  67  49  71  46 /  90  70  80  30
Espanola........................  79  58  82  56 /  80  60  60  20
Santa Fe........................  74  57  77  56 /  90  80  70  30
Santa Fe Airport................  77  57  80  55 /  80  70  70  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  63  81  63 /  80  80  70  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  81  63  82  63 /  80  80  70  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  83  62  85  62 /  80  80  70  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  63  83  62 /  80  70  60  30
Belen...........................  86  60  84  59 /  80  80  70  30
Bernalillo......................  82  62  84  61 /  80  70  70  30
Bosque Farms....................  84  60  84  59 /  80  80  70  30
Corrales........................  81  62  84  61 /  80  70  60  30
Los Lunas.......................  85  60  85  60 /  80  80  70  30
Placitas........................  80  61  82  61 /  80  80  70  30
Rio Rancho......................  80  62  84  62 /  80  70  60  30
Socorro.........................  86  64  84  63 /  90  80  80  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  73  56  76  55 /  80  80  70  30
Tijeras.........................  77  58  79  57 /  80  80  80  30
Edgewood........................  76  55  77  54 /  80  80  80  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  53  78  50 /  90  80  80  40
Clines Corners..................  70  54  71  53 /  80  90  80  40
Mountainair.....................  76  56  75  55 /  80  80  80  50
Gran Quivira....................  77  56  75  55 /  80  80  90  50
Carrizozo.......................  75  60  72  60 /  80  80  90  50
Ruidoso.........................  67  55  66  54 /  90  80  90  50
Capulin.........................  71  54  72  51 /  80  70  70  30
Raton...........................  74  54  77  51 /  90  60  70  20
Springer........................  75  56  77  53 /  90  70  70  20
Las Vegas.......................  70  54  71  51 /  90  80  80  30
Clayton.........................  78  62  79  60 /  70  50  30  30
Roy.............................  74  58  73  58 /  90  80  70  30
Conchas.........................  79  63  80  62 /  90  80  70  40
Santa Rosa......................  75  61  77  59 /  90  80  80  40
Tucumcari.......................  82  63  81  63 /  70  60  50  40
Clovis..........................  82  65  79  64 /  40  40  30  30
Portales........................  83  65  82  64 /  40  30  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  79  64  77  62 /  80  70  70  40
Roswell.........................  80  68  80  67 /  70  60  50  30
Picacho.........................  72  61  72  59 /  90  70  90  40
Elk.............................  68  58  69  56 /  90  80  90  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for NMZ207-
208-211>225-227>229-232>234-241.

Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ235>240.

Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11