199
FXUS65 KABQ 062041 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
241 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Monsoon moisture will remain in place over the area through mid
  next week with a daily risk of cloud-to-ground lightning,
  erratic wind gusts, and localized flash flooding, mostly across
  the high terrain and nearby lower elevations. Overall storm
  coverage looks to be highest on Wednesday.

- Above normal high temperatures will continue across eastern New
  Mexico, where moderate heat risk will occur each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Due to a better coverage of slow moving storms across east
central NM and northwest TX from Fort Sumner to Dalhart, have
increased PoPs across this area through 6 PM MDT. Flash Flood
Warning in effect for Tucumcari until 16:45 MDT. Updated forecast
grids and products are out.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A broad 592 to 593 dam upper high at 500 mb extends from New Mexico
to Oklahoma with the centroid somewhere in far east central NM this
afternoon. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will favor the southern
high terrain today along with some airmass thunderstorms once again
across northeast and east central NM. Overall storm motion will be
slow and erratic initially with a slight jog to the north-northwest
later in the afternoon. This storm motion should help direct storms
west and away from the core of the Ruidoso burn scars. CAMs this
morning were not enthused for storm development across the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains, thus decreasing the chances for colliding
outflow boundaries over ABQ and Santa Fe Metros. Once again, any
storm will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding in low lying, poor drainage, and urban areas.
Storms should taper off around sunset with the loss of daytime
heating, but the 12Z NAM wants to keep some isolated shower and
storm activity going across southwest NM overnight, likely due to
the upper low over the Pacific NW pulling up some higher moisture
from Hurricane Marie east of Baja California.

The upper low over the Pacific NW finally moves inland to over the
northern Rockies on Labor Day shifting the upper high east to over
the central and southern Great Plains with the western flank still
hanging on across eastern NM. The position of these two upper level
features will help position and tighten the monsoon plume
(containing moisture from Hurricane Marie) from southwest to
northeast NM. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will favor
the western and north central mountains with an overall storm motion
to the northeast at 10 to 20 mph due to more brisk southwest flow
from the base of the northern Rockies low. Storms will try to move
in the upper and middle RGV during the late afternoon and early
evening hours before tapering off late evening. High temperatures
will be 5 to 10 degrees above average areawide this afternoon with
western and some central areas cooling slightly to near average
Labor Day due to the slight increase in moisture and storm
coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The upper low exits northeast to the Dakotas and central Canada
Tuesday flattening the upper high from eastern NM to central and
southern Appalachians and strengthening to 597 dam at 500 mb over
the Ozarks and central Mississippi River Valley. The monsoon plume
and thus better diurnal shower and storm coverage will remain across
western and central NM similar to Labor Day. CAMs do show a better
coverage across the Sacramento Mountains Tuesday compared to Labor
Day. The 597 dam 500 mb upper high looks to pivot back west to over
New Mexico Wednesday due to the trough axis south of the Canadian
low moving across the north central U.S. This trough looks to send a
weak backdoor front through northeast and central NM ending up along
the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia and Manzano
Mountains by midday Wednesday. This will result in a boost of
moisture and lift and thus a better coverage of showers and storms
across this part of the state.

The upper high continues shifting west to southern NV, western AZ,
and southern CA weakening to 594 to 596 dam at 500 mb while the
backdoor front mixes out across eastern NM Thursday. Overall storm
coverage on Thursday does look lower than Wednesday as some drier
air tries to move in from the north. Forecast confidence Friday into
next weekend decreases rapidly as guidance differs on how quickly
the upper high over the Desert SW breaks down ahead of a new upper
low entering the Pacific NW. The ECMWF breaks down the upper high
Friday, while the GFS, AI-GFS, and Canadian shift the 594 to 595 dam
upper high back east over New Mexico. For the weekend, the AI-GFS
and Canadian keep the upper high squarely overhead Saturday before
shifting east next Sunday. The GFS shift the upper high over west
Texas Saturday before shifting east to the south central U.S. Sunday
as the upper low moves across the northern Rockies. Finally, the
ECMWF has the upper low and associated troughing across the western
U.S. more dominant next weekend. The ECMWF scenario would result in
a higher coverage of showers and storms, especially across the
higher elevations, during this period. The GFS would hold the higher
shower and storm coverage until Sunday and the AI-GFS and Canadian
would have a lower coverage of showers and storms across the higher
terrain. Right now, the ensemble cluster guidance shows a slight
lean (58% to 42%) to a mixture of the ECMWF and GFS scenarios. Highs
through Friday will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s across lower
elevations of western and central NM and mid to upper 90s across
eastern NM which is slightly above average for early to mid
September. Some potential cooling next weekend if the more dominant
upper low/troughing scenario pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern high
terrain with isolated showers and storms across northeast NM and
on the Caprock. Showers and storms will be capable of producing
gusty and erratic winds up to 35 kts along with locally heavy
rainfall across the southern high terrain. Showers and storms
taper off around sunset lingering longest across the southwest
mountains. Scattered to broken mid level and upper level clouds
overnight into Monday morning across western, central and northern
NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

No critical fire weather concerns with warm to hot temperatures
across lower elevations this week. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain of western and central NM
and nearby lower elevations through mid next week. Storm coverage
across the higher terrain, northeast and east central New Mexico
looks highest on Wednesday due to a backdoor front entering
northeast and east central New Mexico. Storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially over
recent burn scars. Lower storm coverage Thursday and Friday due to
the upper high being overhead and some drier air potentially moving
in from the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  90  62  91 /  10  10   5   0
Dulce...........................  50  87  48  89 /   5  10   5   0
Cuba............................  58  86  57  86 /  10  30  20   0
Gallup..........................  57  86  56  88 /  10  10  10  10
El Morro........................  56  83  54  83 /  20  40  30  30
Grants..........................  59  86  57  86 /  10  60  40  30
Quemado.........................  58  82  57  84 /  30  80  30  60
Magdalena.......................  62  85  61  84 /  40  50  40  50
Datil...........................  57  83  57  81 /  30  80  50  40
Reserve.........................  57  87  56  89 /  30  70  40  60
Glenwood........................  63  91  61  95 /  30  50  30  40
Chama...........................  52  79  51  83 /   5  10   5   5
Los Alamos......................  64  84  62  84 /  10  40  30  30
Pecos...........................  59  86  58  87 /  20  20  30  10
Cerro/Questa....................  57  83  56  84 /   0  20  10  10
Red River.......................  49  73  48  75 /   5  20  10  30
Angel Fire......................  44  80  42  80 /   0  20  10  40
Taos............................  57  87  55  88 /   0  20  10   5
Mora............................  55  83  54  84 /  10  40  20  70
Espanola........................  64  89  62  92 /  10  30  30   5
Santa Fe........................  64  86  62  87 /  10  20  20   0
Santa Fe Airport................  62  89  61  90 /  10  20  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  92  68  94 /  10  10  30   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  93  66  93 /  10  10  30   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  68  95  66  95 /  10  10  30   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  94  68  94 /  10  10  30   0
Belen...........................  66  95  64  94 /  10  10  40   0
Bernalillo......................  69  95  67  95 /  10  20  30   0
Bosque Farms....................  66  94  63  94 /  10   5  40   0
Corrales........................  69  94  67  95 /  10  10  30   0
Los Lunas.......................  67  94  65  94 /  10  10  40   0
Placitas........................  68  92  66  91 /  10  20  30   5
Rio Rancho......................  69  94  67  94 /  10  10  30   0
Socorro.........................  70  95  68  96 /  20  10  30   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  87  61  87 /  10  10  30  10
Tijeras.........................  64  88  62  88 /  10  10  30  10
Edgewood........................  60  88  58  89 /  10  10  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  90  57  91 /  10  10  40  20
Clines Corners..................  61  86  59  87 /  20  10  30  10
Mountainair.....................  60  88  59  88 /  10   5  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  60  88  59  88 /  10   5  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  63  88  63  90 /  10  10  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  57  82  57  82 /   5  20   5  50
Capulin.........................  59  88  59  86 /  20  20  10  40
Raton...........................  57  91  56  90 /  10  20  20  40
Springer........................  59  94  58  92 /  20  20  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  58  87  57  87 /  20  20  20  30
Clayton.........................  66  94  68  94 /  20  10  10  10
Roy.............................  62  91  63  90 /  20  10  10  20
Conchas.........................  68  99  69  99 /  10   5  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  67  95  67  95 /  10   0  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  70  99  70  99 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  67  97  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  68  98  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68  97  68  97 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69  99  70  99 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  61  92  61  93 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  57  87  58  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71