Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
652 FXUS65 KABQ 021136 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 536 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 - Severe thunderstorms will favor the far northeast quadrant of New Mexico this afternoon and early evening. Primary risks are large hail and damaging wind gusts. There is also a small risk on Sunday along the OK/TX borders. - Daytime temperatures will increase for the early to middle portion of next week. There is high confidence in widespread moderate to locally major heat risk impacts, particularly for individuals without adequate cooling and hydration. Some areas will approach near record to record highs. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 112 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 A cluster of storms will continue to drift south-southeast over the southeast plains through sunrise before dissipating. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will erupt across the high terrain by early afternoon, however there should be a marked reduction in coverage as a result of the increasing effects of dry air advancing eastward from the Great Basin. Similar to Friday, a few storms near the CO border may receive a boost from a shortwave embedded in westerly flow. As activity rolls eastward toward the northeast plains, storms will enter a more favorable environment per the SREF in which 0-6km shear will be around 30kts and MUCAPE pushing 1000 J/kg, especially near the OK/TX borders. Diurnally- driven activity over the mountainous areas should wane by around sunset, with the northeast storms likely to push east of the CWFA by mid/late evening. While sufficient moisture should be in place for locally heavy rain rates of 1-2 inches/per hr, footprints are expected to be limited. With that in mind, will forgo the issuance of any Flood Watches, but it is important to note that burn scars will still be susceptible for one more day. If you have been dreaming of a dry monsoon pattern, your wish has finally come true. An impressive dry slug of air will engulf the western and central portions of the CWA while moisture remains in the far eastern plains with PWATs near three-quarters of an inch. The majority of the CWA will be precip-free; however, CAMs suggest a few storms may pop along the OK/TX border. Most-likely scenario is this activity remains east of the CWFA, but in the low (< 15%) chance something pops west of the border, sufficient instability and higher bulk shear (30-40kts) will be present to provide a hail and damaging wind threat. As mentioned earlier, eyes will be glued on the 00Z/04 Aug KABQ sounding as the record low PWAT per the SPC climatology page is 0.30 inch. Ensemble guidance gives the chances of 0.40 inch or less at 80%; less than 0.35 inch around 55%. As a result of this drier airmass, abundant sunshine, and high heights, afternoon temperatures will be 3-7F warmer compared to Saturday. A Heat Advisory may be required for Chaves County as the NBM places the probability for at least 105F around 45%. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 112 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Not a lot of significant changes to the ongoing long-term period. By Monday, the 500hPa high will be around 596dam in strength and should be centered in the Upper Gila region. Moisture will remain very scant for most of the CWFA, excluding the far ern plains, to support any convection. It will be well above normal in the west central and southwest parts of the state, while the ern plains is progged to be slightly cooler/near average compliments of a rather weak boundary, potentially aided by convective outflows, sneaking into the area. The monsoon upr high will strengthen to 598-599 dam on Tue and be located just south of KABQ, which could set a record on the KABQ sounding. Meanwhile, low-level S/SW flow is re-established across the eastern plains. This will support above to well above normal readings statewide, with Roswell/Chaves County flirting with 105F once again. Meanwhile, the new position of the high should allow monsoon moisture to be advected northward along its wrn periphery. By Wednesday, PWATs in southwest and south central AZ will reach 1.50 inch while some moisture creeps into western NM with values ranging from 0.50-0.75 inch. the 00Z/07 Aug KABQ sounding will be the better opportunity to break a 500hPa height record as a large number of models indicate 600-601 dam. This being said, guidance also spits out some low PoPs in the Gila region and northern mts. This is difficult to imagine given strong subsidence beneath this high, but if anything does develop, it should be rather weak and short-lived with gusty/erratic outflows favored. Not a lot of change anticipated for Thursday and Friday although the 500hPa high appears to weaken slightly (597-598 dam). While moisture continues to sneak under this ridge, PWATs appears to be slightly below seasonal norms (which are close to their seasonal monsoon peak). This should support an incremental opportunity for diurnal showers/storms to develop over the higher terrain. Highs should also succumb to increased cloud cover/storm coverage, thus will drop a couple of degrees but remain well above normal at all locations. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Another round of showers and storms will develop this afternoon across the high terrain, but coverage will be lower compared to the past several days. More outflow dominate activity should be favored, thus expected gusty/erratic winds. There will be a risk for strong to severe storms across northeast and east central NM with hail and strong winds being the main threats as storms over the high terrain migrate into the high plains. Activity should diminish by 03Z in central/southwest NM, and between 03Z-06Z in the ern plains. All TAF sites excluding KTCC, and possibly KLVS, have less than a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms, thus PROB30 was used sparingly as a result. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 112 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday across western and central NM, with the highest probability across the Four Corners region. Another day of mountain showers and storms are expected today with additional activity in northeast NM. Notably drier air invades the state on Sunday-Monday, where very low RH values are likely. Eight to 13 hours of single digit RH can be expected over the northwest quadrant of the state on both days, locally longer in duration for Monday lee of the Chuska Mts. Abysmal overnight RH recoveries are also forecast west of the central mountain chain, with a few areas failing to exceed the lower 20 percent range. Meanwhile, record to near record heat will continue to dry out fuels. Moisture will attempt to seep back into New Mexico for the mid- to late work week period. As storm chances slowly tick up each day, a new hazard will be introduced in the form of lightning strikes and poor wetting footprints, which may result in new fire starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 94 59 95 56 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 88 47 88 43 / 10 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 87 55 88 54 / 10 10 0 0 Gallup.......................... 90 52 92 47 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 86 54 89 52 / 10 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 90 56 92 52 / 10 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 86 57 90 54 / 20 10 0 0 Magdalena....................... 87 64 91 60 / 30 20 0 0 Datil........................... 84 57 89 55 / 40 20 0 0 Reserve......................... 92 55 94 51 / 40 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 97 61 98 58 / 30 10 0 0 Chama........................... 82 49 83 47 / 10 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 83 60 88 59 / 20 10 0 0 Pecos........................... 85 57 87 55 / 20 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 54 84 51 / 30 10 0 0 Red River....................... 73 45 75 44 / 30 10 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 77 40 79 37 / 30 10 5 0 Taos............................ 85 51 88 49 / 20 10 0 0 Mora............................ 81 51 83 49 / 30 10 5 0 Espanola........................ 90 58 93 55 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 85 61 88 58 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 59 92 57 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 68 93 65 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 67 95 63 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 65 97 62 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 67 95 63 / 10 10 0 0 Belen........................... 95 63 99 58 / 10 10 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 95 65 96 62 / 10 10 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 95 63 98 58 / 5 10 0 0 Corrales........................ 95 66 96 62 / 10 10 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 95 64 98 59 / 5 10 0 0 Placitas........................ 90 65 93 62 / 10 10 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 95 66 95 62 / 10 10 0 0 Socorro......................... 96 67 99 63 / 10 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 59 88 57 / 10 10 0 0 Tijeras......................... 87 62 91 59 / 10 10 0 0 Edgewood........................ 87 57 90 54 / 5 10 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 89 54 92 52 / 5 10 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 83 57 87 55 / 5 10 0 0 Mountainair..................... 87 59 90 54 / 10 10 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 86 60 90 54 / 10 10 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 90 67 93 63 / 20 10 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 81 59 85 58 / 30 10 5 0 Capulin......................... 82 51 84 52 / 50 50 5 5 Raton........................... 85 50 89 53 / 50 30 5 0 Springer........................ 87 52 91 54 / 30 20 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 85 54 86 52 / 20 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 87 58 89 59 / 20 50 5 5 Roy............................. 84 56 89 57 / 20 30 5 0 Conchas......................... 92 62 96 62 / 10 30 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 90 61 96 60 / 10 20 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 88 61 95 60 / 5 30 0 0 Clovis.......................... 93 67 96 63 / 5 20 0 5 Portales........................ 94 67 98 63 / 5 20 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 93 66 99 63 / 5 20 0 0 Roswell......................... 97 71 105 68 / 5 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 90 64 97 61 / 20 10 0 0 Elk............................. 88 62 92 60 / 20 5 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...46 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...46