492
FXUS65 KABQ 301137 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
537 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Storms will favor areas along and west of the central mountain
  chain through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall as well as gusty
  and erratic winds can be expected.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall from
  storms across western New Mexico Sunday and Monday. Flash
  flooding could result where storms train over the same area
  repeatedly.

- Above normal high temperatures will raise the risk of heat-
  related illnesses across eastern New Mexico for the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 135 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Per satellite imagery, the monsoon plume of moisture has become
well-established across eastern AZ and western/north central NM.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue overnight
across these areas though precipitation amounts will remain
minimal. However, there is a growing concern that this
precipitation and resultant debris clouds will linger through the
day on Sunday and prevent the area from destabilizing Sunday
afternoon. In this scenario, the best chances for thunderstorms
would exist on the periphery of the cloud cover (i.e. near the
Four Corners and areas stretching from the SW Mtns to ABQ with a
void in between). The latest RRFS is now showing this scenario and
both the NAM and HRRR are starting to hint at it. If this looks
like it is starting to play out today, we`ll likely need to lower
temps and PoPs where cloud cover persist. It does seem that
surrounding convection will move into the cloudy area in the
evening, bringing some hope for at least light rainfall. If the
latest CAMs are incorrect and daytime heating is able to
destabilize the area, storm coverage would be very similar to
Saturday. In either scenario, storms today will again be capable
of locally heavy rainfall, especially as PWATs continue to hover
around 1 inch. Gusty outflow winds will also be a concern,
especially as storms move toward the Rio Grande Valley. Much like
Saturday, dust may get kicked up and reduce visibility. Overall
storm motion will be toward the east and northeast around 10 to 20
mph.

The 595dam H5 height near the OK/AR border today will shift even
further east on Monday, though the pesky ridge axis will remain
over the Bootheel to east central NM. However, heights will be
lower than Saturday overall. Models continue to show a vort max
emanating from convection in MX sliding northward near the AZ/NM
border starting early Monday as it is squeezed between the ridge
axis and a shortwave trough over CA/NV. Though abundant cloud
cover will be associated with this feature, it may provide just
enough ascent for a more robust crop of showers and thunderstorms
along and west of the Central Mtn Chain as it crosses northwest
NM in the afternoon. With H5 heights weakening, there will also be
a slightly better chance of storms with wetting rainfall moving
into the Rio Grande Valley. Storm motions will be toward the north
and northeast around 15 to 25 mph. These quick motions will help
mitigate any flooding threat, but may only aid gusty outflows.
Showers and a few storms should again linger into the overnight
hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The main upper high center will remain east of NM Tuesday through
Friday, though the ridge axis will continue to extend back
westward into NM through the period. A stronger upper low off the
coast of northern CA will increase southwest flow over NM. This
flow will usher in significantly drier air above 600 mb across
western NM and to some extent across central NM. This will disrupt
or narrow the monsoon plume to be mainly over the Central Mtn
Chain. Storm coverage should reduce across western NM, but should
increase slightly along and just east of the Central Mtn Chain.
The drier air will push farther into NM on Wednesday, disrupting
the plume and lowering precipitation chances further. Will need to
monitor these two days around Ruidoso. Though it`s not a obvious
or classic pattern for flooding there, can see some slow moving
storms potentially causing some issues. Moisture advection should
resume on Thursday, though modestly. This should allow for a few
more storms than on Wednesday. All eyes will then be back on the
upper high which seems to have an affinity for NM this year. Both
operational models and their ensemble counterparts show the upper
high moving toward NM on Friday and centering over NE NM on
Saturday at around 595-597 dam. It would seem we are not done
with the heat, yet. But before that happens, we might see some
moisture peel off a tropical system southwest of the Baja
Peninsula, temporarily increasing chances for precipitation
Friday. Fingers crossed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A few light rain showers continue across western NM likely in
response to an MCV moving into west central NM at this hour.
Mid level debris clouds lingering through the day in this region
may slow convective initiation this afternoon. However, generally
it is expected that the same areas that were impacted Saturday
will be impacted again today by showers and thunderstorms.
However, storms may initially favor areas on the periphery of the
cloud cover, and fill in across northwest NM this evening. Brief
heavy rainfall, gusty outflows to 40kt and localized areas of
blowing dust can be expected. Storm motion will be towards the
northeast and east around 8 to 15kt. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will again linger into the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 135 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
week. A monsoon plume of moisture across the western half of the
state will increase precipitation chances through Monday along
and west of the Central Mtn Chain. Wetting rainfall, though
spotty, is likely. Meanwhile, well above normal temperatures will
persist across eastern NM. As drier air aloft pushes into western
NM on Tuesday, storms will become more focused along and just east
of the Central Mtn Chain. Drier air will continue to push into NM
on Wednesday, further disrupting the monsoon plume and lowering
precipitation chances. Moisture peeling off a tropical system
southwest of the Baja Peninsula may slowly move into NM Thursday
and moreso Friday. However, the upper high will also shift back
toward NM Friday. After a break from the heat across western NM
over the next few days, above normal temperatures should return by
the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  61  78  57 /  40  40  60  60
Dulce...........................  84  51  81  49 /  30  40  60  50
Cuba............................  84  56  82  55 /  40  50  40  30
Gallup..........................  85  54  77  50 /  50  60  70  40
El Morro........................  80  53  75  50 /  60  60  70  40
Grants..........................  84  56  80  54 /  60  60  70  40
Quemado.........................  81  56  76  54 /  70  50  70  40
Magdalena.......................  85  60  84  60 /  60  30  50  30
Datil...........................  81  56  78  54 /  60  40  70  30
Reserve.........................  88  56  84  54 /  60  40  60  30
Glenwood........................  94  60  89  58 /  40  40  30  20
Chama...........................  77  51  76  49 /  30  50  60  50
Los Alamos......................  83  61  83  60 /  40  30  30  40
Pecos...........................  88  58  87  56 /  20  20  30  40
Cerro/Questa....................  82  54  82  54 /  30  20  30  30
Red River.......................  76  44  76  45 /  30  20  40  40
Angel Fire......................  80  39  80  40 /  30  20  40  40
Taos............................  85  55  85  54 /  30  20  30  40
Mora............................  84  54  83  53 /  30  20  40  40
Espanola........................  91  58  91  57 /  30  30  20  30
Santa Fe........................  87  61  86  59 /  20  20  20  40
Santa Fe Airport................  90  58  89  57 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  92  65  91  64 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  92  66  91  65 /  30  20  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  60  93  59 /  30  20  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  93  67  92  66 /  30  20  20  30
Belen...........................  95  64  94  63 /  30  20  20  20
Bernalillo......................  93  64  92  64 /  30  20  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  94  60  93  60 /  30  20  20  30
Corrales........................  94  65  93  64 /  30  20  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  94  63  93  62 /  30  20  20  30
Placitas........................  90  64  89  62 /  20  20  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  92  66  91  65 /  30  20  20  30
Socorro.........................  96  68  95  67 /  30  20  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  60  86  58 /  20  20  30  30
Tijeras.........................  88  61  87  60 /  20  20  30  30
Edgewood........................  89  59  88  57 /  20  20  30  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  56  90  55 /  20  20  20  40
Clines Corners..................  88  59  87  57 /  20  20  20  40
Mountainair.....................  89  58  88  57 /  10  20  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  89  59  88  58 /  10  20  20  40
Carrizozo.......................  93  66  92  64 /  20  20  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  86  57  86  56 /  30  20  30  20
Capulin.........................  87  55  86  55 /  30  20  30  30
Raton...........................  90  55  89  55 /  20  20  30  30
Springer........................  93  57  92  56 /  20  20  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  89  57  88  56 /  20  20  20  30
Clayton.........................  97  66  95  66 /  20  20   0  10
Roy.............................  93  62  91  62 /  20  20   0  20
Conchas......................... 101  69  99  68 /  20  20   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  97  67  95  65 /  20  20   0  10
Tucumcari....................... 101  71  99  69 /  10  10   0   5
Clovis..........................  98  68  96  67 /   5   5   0   0
Portales........................ 100  68  98  68 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner..................... 100  69  98  68 /  10  20   0   5
Roswell......................... 101  71 100  71 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  96  64  95  64 /  20  20   5  10
Elk.............................  92  61  91  60 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34