469
FXUS65 KABQ 030854
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
154 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

- Well above average temperatures will persist through Wednesday,
  especially across eastern areas, where a few new record high
  temperatures may be set on Sunday.

- Winter driving conditions are looking more likely in the
  mountains and at lower elevations along and west of the
  continental divide during the second half of the coming work
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

A ridge of high pressure will cross from the west this weekend
with dry weather, lighter winds, and high temperatures around 7 to
22 degrees above 1991-2020 averages. The warmest readings will
occur on Sunday, when a surface trough in the lee of the southern
Rockies produces gusty downslope winds out of the west and
southwest. A few near record high temperatures are forecast over
central areas on Sunday, and a few new record high temperatures
may be set across the eastern plains. Broad sheets of thin high
cirrus clouds will cross the state this weekend, favoring western
and northern areas today, then southern and eastern areas on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1241 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

High temperatures will trend cooler over the forecast area during
the work week as a longwave trough deepens over the western US
with multiple shortwave troughs rotating through it. The cooling
will be most significant over western NM on Monday, while a few
near record high temperatures return to the eastern plains. On
Wednesday high temperatures will begin to fall near and below
30-year averages over western areas, then near and below average
over central areas as well on Thursday, and 3-13 degrees below
average areawide on Friday. The active storm track will be
accompanied by stronger flow aloft and a persistent surface trough
in the lee of the southern Rockies, with gusty west and southwest
winds along and east of the central mountain chain, and especially
along the I-40 corridor, each day during the first half of the
work week. Winds then look to strengthen areawide Thursday, and
may potentially remain strong into Friday as the wind direction
shifts out of the northwest.

There may be spotty and light showers over western and northwest
areas at times Monday and Tuesday, then models depict a 10-50
percent chance of rain and mountain snow showers along and west of
the central mountain chain on Wednesday as an upper level low
pressure system off the upper Baja CA peninsula opens into a
trough and tracks eastward along the US/Mexico border. At this
time precip amounts look to remain light with the best chance of
up to a tenth of an inch of rain or liquid equivalent moisture
over the southwest mountains including Glenwood.

Precip then looks to increase in coverage over all but the
southeast plains Wednesday night through the end of the work week
as another upper level trough crosses the forecast area from the
northwest. Models are already in fairly good agreement on the
track and timing of the system, and a gusty Pacific cold front
that will probably cross western and central parts of the
forecast area Thursday, then eastern areas Thursday evening. The
snow level looks to fall to valley bottoms Wednesday night as 700
mb temperature drop between -3 and -7 C. The snow level may only
climb between 6000-7500 feet on Thursday, then fall to valley
bottoms again with even colder temperatures Thursday night. The
storm system will not have a subtropical tap of moisture, so
precip and liquid equivalent amounts look like they will be
moderate with most amounts under a half inch, except for locally
higher amounts in the mountains west of the Rio Grande Valley.
If this QPF forecast pans out, temperatures will be cold enough
for a few inches of snow at lower elevations along and west of the
continental divide, and a few to several inches of snow in the
mountains; heaviest amounts north and west with this westerly
upslope flow event. The storm system will steer a southwesterly
jet stream over southern and eastern parts of the forecast area
with a risk of wind gusts over 40 mph in many southern and eastern
locations, except over 50 mph along and just east of the southern
tier of mountains. A northwesterly jet streak will then cross the
forecast area on Friday as another shortwave trough approaches
northeast NM from the northwest, keeping breezy to windy
conditions in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

While surface winds have decreased in most locations, the winds
aloft are being still strong, meaning that some low level wind
shear will persist into the overnight in a few eastern locations.
The other aviation weather concern for tonight will be the
development of low stratus clouds or freezing fog, mainly in
northwestern and perhaps west central areas of New Mexico.
Confidence is higher (40-60%) for IFR to VLIFR conditions in
northwestern New Mexico, including KFMN, with lower probability
(20% or less) near and south of KGUP and KXNI. Any fog or stratus
that develop will burn off through the mid to late morning
Saturday. Conditions will turn VFR with light to moderate breezes
by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1241 AM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

Humidities will remain well above 15% for the next 7 days, except
for some sub-15% minimum humidities over the far northeast
highlands and plains Sunday through Tuesday. At this time we are
forecasting humidities between 21-40% over southern and eastern
parts of the fire weather forecast area during Thursday`s
potential high wind event. Except for fair ventilation over the
far northeast plains this afternoon, today`s weaker winds will
result in widespread poor ventilation. Winds will become a little
gustier on Sunday and vent rates will begin to improve in some
locations, especially across east central areas. The ventilation
improvement looks to expand farther on Monday, then retract with
broader areas of poor ventilation returning Tuesday. Vent rates
should improve with the stronger winds forecast during the middle
to latter half of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  54  25  55  25 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  53  29  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  57  22  56  26 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  58  26  55  27 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  58  24  60  25 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  62  28  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  57  36  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  58  30  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  64  26  61  24 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  66  30  65  28 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  49  25  48  24 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  52  35  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  56  32  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  52  31  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  48  18  47  20 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  52  16  51  21 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  54  25  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  58  31  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  57  28  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  54  32  55  32 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  55  29  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  37  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  36  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  30  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  36  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  57  30  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  58  35  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  57  28  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  58  34  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  57  29  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  55  35  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  57  36  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  60  36  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  54  35  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  55  35  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  56  33  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  25  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  55  32  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  58  34  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  59  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  62  36  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  59  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  56  29  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  58  27  64  26 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  62  26  67  25 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  58  32  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  61  39  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  59  31  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  65  33  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  63  35  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  66  37  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  66  37  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  67  34  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  65  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  68  33  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  65  36  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  64  34  70  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44