656
FXUS65 KABQ 112333 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
533 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 527 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Heat continues across eastern and central New Mexico through
  the weekend where there is an increased risk of heat related
  illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs.

- Isolated to scattered storms may produce frequent lightning,
  gusty winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall today and
  tomorrow.

- A surge of rich monsoon moisture starting Sunday and continuing
  into next week may increase the risk of heavy rainfall and flash
  flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

High pressure remains situated over northern Mexico near the Gulf of
California, aiding in delivering the dry air that remains over the
state this afternoon. The 18z ABQ sounding had a PWAT of 0.48",
double what yesterday`s 00z sounding had (0.22"), but less than
yesterday`s 18z sounding (0.55"). Needless to say, it remains very
dry out there today. The main hazards today remain the heat across
central and eastern NM, and the chance for strong outflow winds
across western and portions of central NM. For the heat, the 5956m
500mb height at 18z sits around the 99th percentile in climatology,
showcasing and explaining why several record temperatures are likely
to be challenged, if not broken, this afternoon. Low 100s are
likely across eastern NM, with mid to high 90s elsewhere in lower
elevation areas. Across western NM, high-res models continue to
pick up on a strong signal for inverted-V profiles and increasing
mid- level moisture originating from more uniform zonal flow
across west- central CONUS. The combination of these announce the
increased chances for strong outflow winds from high-based virga
showers. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few 50-55mph gusts at some
locations, especially directly underneath these showers. These
winds are likely to begin across western NM (Farmington-Gallup-
Quemado) after 3-4pm before surging further eastward towards the
Rio Grande Valley. Winds are likely to reach the I-25 corridor
after 6-8pm this evening, bringing a decent chance for wind gusts
greater than 30-35mph. Brief, isolated 40mph gusts cannot be ruled
out. Winds look to slowly taper off through the evening and early
overnight hours.

The high pressure slowly slides eastward tomorrow, centering itself
over the southern portions of New Mexico. As it does, additional
moisture starts to seep into the state. This raises precipitation
chances across portions of the southern high terrain, though these
storms will be rather slow and isolated in nature given the high
sitting directly over them. Temperatures still remain above average
across a majority of the state, and some locations in southeast NM
may flirt with Heat Advisory criteria (105F). Overall, another
relatively benign day with a few isolated to scattered storms is
expected for Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A wetter pattern looks to take shape beginning Sunday and continuing
into next week. The aforementioned high pressure shifts over to
south-central to southeast CONUS, while a trough pushes onshore
across western CONUS. The placement of these two features puts a
bulk of AZ and NM in a convergence zone where subtropical moisture
is easily advected into our region. Sunday looks to be the first of
several days of increased precipitation chances. Storms look to
initially favor the higher terrain from the central mountain chain
westward, before moving into the lower elevations through the
evening hours. A speed max rounding the trough to our northwest may
provide right entrance region synoptic forcing through Sunday
evening into Monday morning, which may allow for rain to continue
throughout the overnight hours. This overnight rainfall, should it
occur, would likely leave widespread cloud cover and stable air into
Monday, which can significantly affect precipitation chances,
rainfall intensity, and temperatures. Much of the same can be said
for each day next week, which makes the forecast confidence in the
finer details degrade each day given the conditional properties. In
general, the overall pattern of moisture convergence is likely to
remain throughout a good portion of next week, leading to consistent
days of higher precipitation chances. LREF PWAT values reach or
exceed the 95th percentile each day, showing the favored environment
for rainfall. A consistent question mark (outside of the conditional
properties above) remains the possibility of a surface boundary or
cold front pushing into eastern NM sometime during the middle of the
week. A boundary such as this would likely increase precipitation
chances across eastern NM. While several fine details remain fuzzy,
the upcoming pattern appears favorable for much needed rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds up to 25 to 30 mph will
continue most areas of western and central NM thru this evening to
near the midnight or 06Z hour. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
moving east from AZ into western NM will threaten lightning, light
to moderate rain, and stronger wind gusts to 30+kts thru 02Z or
03Z before tapering off. Some of these stronger thunderstorm
induced gusts will try to advance into parts of the Rio Grande
Valley from KABQ to KONM but look to have a difficult time. Have
maintained the TEMPOs at KABQ and KAEG for this however. Winds are
lighter thru northeastern and east-central with prevailing
southeasterlies at KROW looking to yield to light northwesterlies
overnight into Saturday morning. Thereafter, Saturday will see
another round of breezy westerly to northwesterly winds most
areas. More erratic wind direction shifts are likely at KROW with
southerlies potentially interrupted by a stray isolated
thunderstorm(s) b/w there and KSRR. The Frijoles Fire has also
perked back alive producing a notable smoke plume on satellite.
Current hi-res smoke plume modeling shows this staying east of
KSAF and more in the Pecos Wilderness. Have left mention of smoke
out of KSAF for the time being, but amds may be necessary.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next
several days. Low humidity values remain today (widespread low teens
to single digits) along with locally breezy conditions. This may
bring about isolated elevated fire weather conditions, mainly across
east central and northwest NM. An additional concern would be the
ignition of any dormant lightning strikes across the area,
especially in the northern mountains. High-based showers and storms
are also likely in western NM today, which are favored to produce
strong outflow winds up to 40mph, low rainfall amounts, and the low
chance of a dry lightning strike.

Saturday begins a transition to a more favorable pattern for wetting
rainfall, with Sunday ushering in the first of multiple days with
higher precipitation chances. Wetting rainfall chances first favor
the higher terrain of central and western NM Sunday, before
spreading to a majority of the forecast area by the middle of the
week. Storms each day are likely to be capable of locally heavy
rainfall, frequent lightning, gusty winds and small hail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  91  62  91 /  10   0   5  10
Dulce...........................  45  89  48  87 /   0   0   0  20
Cuba............................  55  87  57  85 /   5   0   0  40
Gallup..........................  54  86  55  86 /  20  10   5  10
El Morro........................  52  83  53  84 /  20  10  10  50
Grants..........................  57  87  56  87 /  10  20  20  60
Quemado.........................  56  84  56  84 /  20  10  20  60
Magdalena.......................  61  86  61  85 /  10  20  20  40
Datil...........................  57  83  56  83 /  10  20  20  50
Reserve.........................  55  89  57  87 /  30  40  20  20
Glenwood........................  60  95  62  92 /  30  10  20  10
Chama...........................  49  83  51  81 /   0   0   0  50
Los Alamos......................  61  87  61  85 /   0  10  10  20
Pecos...........................  60  89  58  86 /   0   5   5  20
Cerro/Questa....................  54  85  54  84 /   0   0   5  10
Red River.......................  47  76  46  75 /   0   5   5  10
Angel Fire......................  35  82  39  80 /   0   5   5  30
Taos............................  51  89  53  88 /   0   0   0  10
Mora............................  57  86  54  84 /   0  10   5  40
Espanola........................  59  94  61  92 /   0   5  10  10
Santa Fe........................  63  89  62  87 /   0   0   5  10
Santa Fe Airport................  60  91  60  90 /   0   0   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  94  67  92 /   5   0  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  94  66  93 /   5   0  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  96  66  95 /   5   0  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  95  67  93 /   5   0  10  10
Belen...........................  62  95  65  95 /   5   0   5  10
Bernalillo......................  64  96  66  94 /   5   0   5   5
Bosque Farms....................  61  95  65  95 /   5   0   5   5
Corrales........................  65  96  67  94 /   5   0   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  62  95  66  95 /   5   0   5  10
Placitas........................  64  93  65  91 /   5   0   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  64  95  66  93 /   5   0   5  10
Socorro.........................  68  96  69  96 /   5  10  10   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  89  60  87 /   5   0   5  20
Tijeras.........................  59  90  62  89 /   5   0   5  20
Edgewood........................  56  91  59  89 /   0   0   5  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  53  92  57  91 /   0   0   5  20
Clines Corners..................  60  89  59  87 /   0   0   5  20
Mountainair.....................  58  89  59  88 /   0   0   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  60  89  60  89 /   0   0   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  65  93  66  90 /   0   0   5  30
Ruidoso.........................  60  86  61  83 /   0  20   0  60
Capulin.........................  56  85  55  88 /   0   0   5   5
Raton...........................  54  89  54  91 /   0   0   5  20
Springer........................  54  93  55  92 /   0   0   5  30
Las Vegas.......................  58  89  56  87 /   0   5  10  20
Clayton.........................  62  91  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  60  92  59  91 /   0   0   0  10
Conchas.........................  65 100  66  99 /   0   0   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  66  96  65  96 /   0   0  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  65 100  68 100 /   0   0   5   5
Clovis..........................  67 100  69  98 /   0   0   5   0
Portales........................  68 100  70  99 /   0   0   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66 101  68  99 /   0   0  10   5
Roswell.........................  69 103  71 101 /   0   5   5   5
Picacho.........................  66  96  65  94 /   0  20   5  30
Elk.............................  63  93  62  90 /   0  20   5  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...24